When is the right time to buy property in Bangkok?

[OneMoreFarang]

3 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

I ended up pay 305,000 THB per sqm

Wow. That leaves two options: 

a) you live in a beautiful apartment about the size of a shoebox

b) you have many many millions

[smutcakes]

19 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Wow. That leaves two options: 

a) you live in a beautiful apartment about the size of a shoebox

b) you have many many millions

 

As it happens my unit is over 200 sqm,  but that is not the point of my post.

 

Point is that if you want to buy and you find something you really like, just buy it. Live in it, enjoy it and dont sweat whether its appreciating or deprecating in value- in 10-15-20 years it will be what it will be. The only check i give myself before buying, on the investment side more than personal use is the mental check- if all went to <deleted> would i be happy to move in and live there myself, as that is going to be the worst case scenario.

[cobra]

17 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

... Point is that if you want to buy and you find something you really like, just buy it. Live in it, enjoy it and dont sweat whether its appreciating or deprecating in value- in 10-15-20 years it will be what it will be ...

Sage advice and I apply this to anything I want to buy.

Life is short, don't stress over price-point, unless of course you're looking to be the richest person in the cemetery. 

Edited June 17, 2021 by cobra

[newnative]

28 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

 

As it happens my unit is over 200 sqm,  but that is not the point of my post.

 

Point is that if you want to buy and you find something you really like, just buy it. Live in it, enjoy it and dont sweat whether its appreciating or deprecating in value- in 10-15-20 years it will be what it will be. The only check i give myself before buying, on the investment side more than personal use is the mental check- if all went to <deleted> would i be happy to move in and live there myself, as that is going to be the worst case scenario.

       Loved both your posts and Cobra's.  One of the posts before yours stated that the only reason people buy is for pride of ownership and a bit of status.  In the case of myself and my partner, neither of those factor in at all.  Several times we have bought for investment but we buy primarily to live in and, with our personal space,  we want the freedom to do what we want with the space we are living in.   We don't want to sit on the landlord's sofa choice looking at the landlord's art or watching a show on a dinky 32 inch tv.  We want the freedom to tear out the kitchen--which we usually do--and design and install exactly what we want.   Same with lighting, wallpaper, drapes, bath tiles, rugs, etc.  We also like knowing we have a roof over our head as long as we can scare up the very reasonable monthly maintenance fees we have here compared to what we were paying in the US.

     Liked your comment about doing the mental check before buying--would I be happy to move in and live there myself.  My partner and I always do this, especially when we were buying condos primarily to rent out.  It's a good check--if we don't want to live in this condo how are we going to find a renter short-term and a buyer down the road?  

    Said poster with the pride comment ran the numbers and found it was financially more advantageous for him to rent rather than to own.  He'd rather invest his money than put it into property.  Nothing at all wrong with doing that and renting if that's your thing. 

     We always get this comment with the renting vs. owning.  Better to invest.  But, there's always the implication that it's do this OR do that.  Nobody points out that you can do both.  My partner and I own property but we also have a diversified stock portfolio and mutual funds.  Yes, you are allowed to walk and chew gum at the same time.  And, no, I don't want to be the richest guy in the cemetery. 

[MRToMRT]

On 6/15/2021 at 10:32 AM, Pottinger said:

I see no point in buying

But as a counter opinion, if you had bought a place 34 years ago you would be sitting pretty right now. Admittedly money is not everything and renting comes with a "freedom" that property ownership does not.

[Airalee]

11 hours ago, Why Me said:

my unit would be 9mil say. Rent I pay is 20k/mth which has been the same 10 years + about 5k water/electric. So that's 300k/year. Which is less than 4% of the buy prices.

It’s actually less than 3% considering that the purchaser still needs to pay the electric/water and in addition to that, the monthly/annual common fees plus any special assessments, which can be substantial as the common fees rarely are high enough to build up a fund to cover these projects.

[kynikoi]

I think the condo market is 45-65% overvalued. Perhaps 50% is just price inflation and another 15% just being a poor value (materials, build, maintenance, etc). Do I think property will drop 65%?

 

No

[kynikoi]

8 hours ago, MRToMRT said:

if you had bought a place 34 years ago

 

Lol

[chalawaan]

The brightest minds in finance:  Burry, Dalio, Dent, Grantham, and Lynch all billionaire savants, have all predicted a market collapse by fall. 

 

We won't have long to wait to see if they're right.

 

I'd hold off.

 

One thing for sure, prices sure as hell won't be going UP in Thailand for at least a year or two, collapse or not.

[kynikoi]

The flooding will be an issue in 15-20 years so people will start waking up to that fact in about 10 years and that very well might affect prices.

 

People have in their minds 2 m deep water central Sukhumvit but it takes far less too stop transportation and ruin a city. Doubly so in the case of Bangkok that the water could be a sea water and contain at least some salt. Devastating.

[OneMoreFarang]

5 minutes ago, kynikoi said:

The flooding will be an issue in 15-20 years so people will start waking up to that fact in about 10 years and that very well might affect prices.

 

People have in their minds 2 m deep water central Sukhumvit but it takes far less too stop transportation and ruin a city. Doubly so in the case of Bangkok that the water could be a sea water and contain at least some salt. Devastating.

Where does that 15-20 years number come from?

Yes, one day Bangkok will be under water. But it seems that is so far in the future that nobody really cares.

[kynikoi]

7 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Where does that 15-20 years number come from?

Yes, one day Bangkok will be under water. But it seems that is so far in the future that nobody really cares.

 

It's already flooding in central Bangkok simply during a heavy downpour. All along Sukhumvit and as far north as Lat Phrao. The airport and Samut Prakan both notoriously vulnerable.

 

It's just a matter of the seas rising enough to come into low lying areas. It doesn't need to be a 4m wall of water. 1m rise in seas during king tides might be enough to inflict damage.

[smutcakes]

6 hours ago, kynikoi said:

 

It's already flooding in central Bangkok simply during a heavy downpour. All along Sukhumvit and as far north as Lat Phrao. The airport and Samut Prakan both notoriously vulnerable.

 

It's just a matter of the seas rising enough to come into low lying areas. It doesn't need to be a 4m wall of water. 1m rise in seas during king tides might be enough to inflict damage.

 

Flooding in Central Bangkok from heavy downpours is due to inadequate drainage when rain fall is intense, it has nothing to do with rising sea levels. Incidentally it floods far less now than it did 15 years ago, so not quite how that fits into your rising sea level thesis.

 

Lat Prao again floods when it rains heavily, nothing to do with rising sea levels. Can you show me where Samut Prakan and the airport have flooded due to rising sea levels? Sukhumvit road has been through Samut Prakan for 80 years and i have never seen high seas flood it.

 

if you made your purchasing decision on the basis of rising sea levels, you may as well never buy anywhere. Nearly every major city has issues. You have probability of getting mugged and stabbed in many major cities, which luckily is not the case in BKK. Each city has its own set of problems, but i would of thought rising sea levels is fairly low down the pecking order for most people when considering where to purchase.

 

At the end of the day prices are driven by demand and supply. Some are overpriced, some are good value and at the end of the day the market will adjust to that in time. Developers have over developed particularly in the mid to low range around Bangkok and there is excess supply that they cannot shift. Good quality condos in good locations still sell readily.

 

When you throw figures around like something is 50% overpriced it is completely meaningless. That is because properties are selling at a certain level which means their are buyers at that level. How can something be overpriced by 50% when people are paying that price?

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, smutcakes said:

When you throw figures around like something is 50% overpriced it is completely meaningless. That is because properties are selling at a certain level which means their are buyers at that level. How can something be overpriced by 50% when people are paying that price?

That is a valid point.

 

But there is also something like overpriced. I was at a party many years ago and friends of the host were property developers. At that time the top price in Bangkok was about 100,000 THB/sqm. Those developers told us that the whole construction including land of any of those projects never exceeded 1/3. They sold for 100,000 and build for less than 33,000. I would call that overpriced. 

[smutcakes]

7 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

That is a valid point.

 

But there is also something like overpriced. I was at a party many years ago and friends of the host were property developers. At that time the top price in Bangkok was about 100,000 THB/sqm. Those developers told us that the whole construction including land of any of those projects never exceeded 1/3. They sold for 100,000 and build for less than 33,000. I would call that overpriced. 

 

100% agree so condos are overpriced, and if they are no one will buy them.  Many years ago the only condos which were selling at 100,000 THB per sqm were condos in central BKK (Chidlom, Lumpini and even 15-20 years ago, land cost alone was far higher than 33,000 THB per sqm. I can only presume that the land was inherited or family land. So either they were calculating wrong or pricing something at 100,000 THB on the outskirts of Bangkok which obviously no one would buy.

 

I believe the 1st real luxury Condominium was built in around 1991 which was Somkid Garden and at that time it was priced around 45,000 THB per sqm and is now selling at close to 200K per sqm. The 1st 100K per sqm condo was around 2005 and certainly for any of those you were not buying land at 33,000 THB per sqm let alone building a condo as well.

 

Something does not compute from what your friends were telling you.

[newnative]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

That is a valid point.

 

But there is also something like overpriced. I was at a party many years ago and friends of the host were property developers. At that time the top price in Bangkok was about 100,000 THB/sqm. Those developers told us that the whole construction including land of any of those projects never exceeded 1/3. They sold for 100,000 and build for less than 33,000. I would call that overpriced. 

      You should still be able to buy in Bangkok for around 100,000 baht a sqm.  And, I'm not talking about something lousy out at a far subway stop.  My partner and I bought at a very nice, well-maintained condo project about a minute's walk to the Phetchaburi MRT station.  Next door neighbors are Q Asoke, The Address Asoke, and The Esse at Singha Complex.  Across the street, a very large Mormon church is going up and a new sports complex is about done down the street.  Several good private schools nearby and the Airport Rail Link is just a short walk.  

     We paid about 115,000 baht a sqm for our 52sqm 1 bedroom, pre-covid.  I don't think I would pay more than that for any condo in Bangkok.  I know you certainly can, but you don't have to in order to live in a nice project in a convenient area.   In Pattaya, there are some projects that are worth 100,000 to 115,000 baht a sqm, but not many.  I know there are a number that are priced around that price point but I think many don't warrant it.  

[Rampant Rabbit]

Answer is  simple...when its the right  price

[Excel]

8 minutes ago, newnative said:

      You should still be able to buy in Bangkok for around 100,000 baht a sqm.  And, I'm not talking about something lousy out at a far subway stop.  My partner and I bought at a very nice, well-maintained condo project about a minute's walk to the Phetchaburi MRT station.  Next door neighbors are Q Asoke, The Address Asoke, and The Esse at Singha Complex.  Across the street, a very large Mormon church is going up and a new sports complex is about done down the street.  Several good private schools nearby and the Airport Rail Link is just a short walk.  

     We paid about 115,000 baht a sqm for our 52sqm 1 bedroom, pre-covid.  I don't think I would pay more than that for any condo in Bangkok.  I know you certainly can, but you don't have to in order to live in a nice project in a convenient area.   In Pattaya, there are some projects that are worth 100,000 to 115,000 baht a sqm, but not many.  I know there are a number that are priced around that price point but I think many don't warrant it.  

And not only do you have those advantages if in BKK but you can also inhale 24/7 toxic traffic fumes and other pollutants all for free. And just to ensure even dosage you can live in a relative rabbit hutch  where the a/c will circulate that for as long as you wish.

[kynikoi]

21 hours ago, smutcakes said:

 

Flooding in Central Bangkok from heavy downpours is due to inadequate drainage when rain fall is intense, it has nothing to do with rising sea levels. Incidentally it floods far less now than it did 15 years ago, so not quite how that fits into your rising sea level thesis.

 

Lat Prao again floods when it rains heavily, nothing to do with rising sea levels. Can you show me where Samut Prakan and the airport have flooded due to rising sea levels? Sukhumvit road has been through Samut Prakan for 80 years and i have never seen high seas flood it.

 

if you made your purchasing decision on the basis of rising sea levels, you may as well never buy anywhere. Nearly every major city has issues. You have probability of getting mugged and stabbed in many major cities, which luckily is not the case in BKK. Each city has its own set of problems, but i would of thought rising sea levels is fairly low down the pecking order for most people when considering where to purchase.

 

At the end of the day prices are driven by demand and supply. Some are overpriced, some are good value and at the end of the day the market will adjust to that in time. Developers have over developed particularly in the mid to low range around Bangkok and there is excess supply that they cannot shift. Good quality condos in good locations still sell readily.

 

When you throw figures around like something is 50% overpriced it is completely meaningless. That is because properties are selling at a certain level which means their are buyers at that level. How can something be overpriced by 50% when people are paying that price?

 

All I'm simply saying is those areas are very low lying and will easily succumb to flooding in the decade/s ahead. They are already prone to flooding during rains. Drainage issues just make it all the worse. That will never get better in this country.

 

Look at Miami, Charleston or Venice Italy.

 

The Thai government appears to be in the process of relocating itself to Chaeng Wattana.

 

People are not buying condos as you suggest. There are 319,000+ properties currently listed on DD property. Moreover, simply because someone is stupid enough to pay 50b for something with a value of 20b does not make the intrinsic value of that object 50b. Finally, a second hand condo is not a share of Walmart stock.

[kynikoi]

People scoff at this flooding issue but I've seen it personally on an island I visit regularly. Yoy the beach is being eroded. In five years some very large trees will come down and much of the campground will be innundated by the ocean. At this rate in 20 years much of this part of the island will be totally lost. If parts of the campground suffer severe erosion in the next few years 10-20% of the area will be unusable two weeks a month.

 

It's not about a wall of water forcing it's way down Sukhumvit but rather high tides bringing water inland.

[smutcakes]

26 minutes ago, kynikoi said:

 

All I'm simply saying is those areas are very low lying and will easily succumb to flooding in the decade/s ahead. They are already prone to flooding during rains. Drainage issues just make it all the worse. That will never get better in this country.

 

Look at Miami, Charleston or Venice Italy.

 

The Thai government appears to be in the process of relocating itself to Chaeng Wattana.

 

People are not buying condos as you suggest. There are 319,000+ properties currently listed on DD property. Moreover, simply because someone is stupid enough to pay 50b for something with a value of 20b does not make the intrinsic value of that object 50b. Finally, a second hand condo is not a share of Walmart stock.

 

I give up really- your comment is utterly absurd, particularly your last sentence. If people are buying a product at arms length and not be forced to buy it and choosing to buy it out of their own free will then the price is what it is.... If someone is paying for something that is the value.... Maybe it is not what you perceive as value, but the very fact that someone is paying that price surely that defines that is its value???

[smutcakes]

8 minutes ago, kynikoi said:

People scoff at this flooding issue but I've seen it personally on an island I visit regularly. Yoy the beach is being eroded. In five years some very large trees will come down and much of the campground will be innundated by the ocean. At this rate in 20 years much of this part of the island will be totally lost. If parts of the campground suffer severe erosion in the next few years 10-20% of the area will be unusable two weeks a month.

 

It's not about a wall of water forcing it's way down Sukhumvit but rather high tides bringing water inland.

 

I am in no way a denier of rising sea levels or anything like that, but i doubt in my lifetime, say maybe another 30 years there will be a significant change, and after that who knows. So what is your suggeestion? Go live in the mountains?

 

The Govt move to Chaengwattana as there is simply not enough space in central BKK. Govt house is still in central BKK- just many other functions moved to make it more accessible. If they were worried about flooding, perhaps they should have not moved to a place which was 1 m underwater 8 years ago.....

[OneMoreFarang]

All that whining about rising water. Just get a condo in the upper part of a high-rise building. Problem solved. ???? 

[wordchild]

we bought our condo in central BKK 10 years ago, we got a pretty good deal (buying from a speculator who couldnt make the final payment).  At the time we paid  around 115k psm.  Over the last decade transaction prices have been on a generally rising trend. The common areas are large and well maintained and Its a popular condo with family  renters , who like the above average  unit sizes (250 sqm up for most units). Where units have come up for sale they have usually sold  very quickly (within weeks). At one time the juristic office even kept a list of people who wanted to be contacted if any owners wanted to sell.   Pre-covid i was aware of transactions being done as high as  300k psm plus. 

However in the last 12/18 months the situation has changed somewhat. prices seemed to have cooled off and a couple of units have not sold even when the asking price has been lowered. eg I am aware of one unit where the owner has been trying to sell for over a year, the advertised price has reduced to around 240k psm but i know he has indicated to the juristic office that he would accept 225k if they can find a buyer. And just this morning i received, in our mailbox, a hand written flyer from a different owner  who is advertising his condo at 190k for a (quick) private sale (ie no agent fees). Best Ever Price in XYZ condominium is the headline on his flyer! 

I would say the market has cooled off especially for the  over supplied market away from the prime areas. But even within the prime market things have come off the top , units are either sticking on market or prices are having to be reduced where owners need to sell. 

 

 

Edited June 19, 2021 by wordchild

[smutcakes]

2 minutes ago, wordchild said:

we bought our condo in central BKK 10 years ago, we got a pretty good deal (buying from a speculator who couldnt make the final payment).  At the time we paid  around 115k psm.  Over the last decade transaction prices have been on a generally rising trend. The common areas are large and well maintained and Its a popular condo with family  renters , who like the above average  unit sizes (250 sqm up for most units). Where units have come up for sale they have usually sold  very quickly (within weeks). At one time the juristic office even kept a list of people who wanted to be contacted if any owners wanted to sell.   Pre-covid i was aware of transactions being done as high as  300k psm plus. 

However in the last 12/18 months the situation has changed somewhat. prices seemed to have cooled off and a couple of units have not sold even when the asking price has been lowered. eg I am aware of one unit where the owner has been trying to sell for over a year, the advertised price has reduced to around 240k psm but i know he has indicated to the juristic office that he would accept 225k if they can find a buyer. And just this morning i received, in our mailbox, a hand written flyer from a different owner  who is advertising his condo at 190k for a (quick) private sale (ie no agent fees). Best Ever Price in XYZ condo is the headline on his flyer! 

I would say the market has cooled off especially for the  over supplied market away from the prime areas. But even within the prime market things have come off the top , units are either sticking on market or prices are having to be reduced where owners need to sell. 

 

 

 

 I presume you are talking about the one with 4 towers....

[wordchild]

absolutely not!  I did have a friend who rented in there for a time , the unit design is odd and they get really hot and uncomfortable . There has also been some pretty significant maintenance problems. He got out before the end of his contract. dreadful place 555

Edited June 19, 2021 by wordchild
added information

[OneMoreFarang]

8 minutes ago, wordchild said:

And just this morning i received, in our mailbox, a hand written flyer from a different owner  who is advertising his condo at 190k for a (quick) private sale (ie no agent fees). Best Ever Price in XYZ condominium is the headline on his flyer! 

Obviously it's good for you or another buyer if you can get a unit for a good price.

But I wonder why that owner doesn't let property agents sell it? If they price is so good then add a few % and sell it for 200k or more through an agent. Or not?

[wordchild]

4 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Obviously it's good for you or another buyer if you can get a unit for a good price.

But I wonder why that owner doesn't let property agents sell it? If they price is so good then add a few % and sell it for 200k or more through an agent. Or not?

I dont know why he did that either, first time i ever got such a flyer.

Maybe he has put it on with an agent as well at a higher price.

[Liverpool Lou]

On 6/15/2021 at 2:47 PM, Robin said:

Then how would you get the cash out of Thailand..

The money that is brought into Thailand for a condo purchase can be sent out also!

[Excel]

Just now, Liverpool Lou said:

The money that is brought into Thailand for a condo purchase can be sent out also!

Assuming you can sell it later of course.