Thailand's Economy And China

[shochu]

Backflip,

You need to re-read my post.

As happens here so often - members mis-read a post and go off on a tangent. I thougth we were using english here - or are you using some kind of esoteric english.

Regarding the topic - it is a tricky balancing act as everyone knows anyone of the players can tip the house of cards - if they choose to. But in the long run - china will be much better off as they actually make things and the good ole U.S. only sells worthless paper. A country on the fast track to the term we like to say so often - 3rd world country - with gated communities.

[ArranP]

Most articles I read describe the economy of China as to be the Number 1 in the World over the longer term.

Also many articles describe a certain amount of uncertainty about equities of China (those internal and those listed on the Hong Kong exchange) over the short term, in that they have grown a significant amount already and are therefore, for one reason or another, are due a correction.

So, lets imagine this to be true and the equities of China (also on the Hong Kong exchange) make their correction. What impact on construction in China would their be, would the drop in price of company shares alter the pace of construction? The number of houses/flats to be built ? Would it affect the demand in commodities needed to supply the boom in China construction and its economic growth ?

[LaoPo]

So, lets imagine this to be true and the equities of China (also on the Hong Kong exchange) make their correction. What impact on construction in China would their be, would the drop in price of company shares alter the pace of construction? The number of houses/flats to be built ? Would it affect the demand in commodities needed to supply the boom in China construction and its economic growth ?

Maybe very limited.

The economy and construction is still steaming on. The stock markets (and thus the listed company stocks) themselves are mainly driven by Chinese investors. private as well as funds; there are more than 100 million holders of special stock-accounts. No doubt many stocks are overvalued but that doesn't hurt the listed companies themselves

These companies are doing well with rising profits. That many private investors are boosting these stock prices is not effecting the turnovers/profits of the same companies. But of course the ever increasing demand for commodities could effect the supply (houses) and prices.... how much, that's another question and hard to answer.

But, prices for construction and houses are rising, do doubt.

LaoPo

[shochu]

Arran,

As you pointed out, I try not to look at the short term and more at the long term. I think your concerns about the chinese construction boom is real and short term as there are always corrections - but if you look more long term at things like the urbanization of a young maturing country - then irregardless of any crash - however severe will only be a correction - the nature of demand, migration, maturing economy/workforce, etc. ensure that china will follow the path other mature economies have traveled - as will thailand.

If you have noticed - thailand has been building bridges into laos - not because of laos but beyond into the vietnam = china factor. Also, there is work on Asia Highway 1 which will connect all the way from western asia to japan. There is real development in the region because the region is coming up and maturing. The consensus is that the entire region will become a great trading block including russia - along with the other great trading blocks of south america and europe. Whatever happens with crashes, and any unexpected stuff - there really is only one way for things to go - and that is continued growth - however sporadic, up and down and what have you.

In the short term = as I have stated many times - I expect a correction soon - and thailand will be in a good position because they are not as bubbled up as other economies in the region - whcih means they will have less of a correction - but if you look at all the ingredients they share with china, such as a young maturing economy with a young workforce which equals a class of workers who will eventually all move out and buy things for the first time as opposed to an economy of replacers.

What can stop it? A huge unexpected event - but again only temporarily (a year - many years) as the law of nature dictates all things grow unless impeded, but nature is tough and eventually will find a way to overcome the impediment - unless it is too strong - then... well we don't want to go there!

I won't talk about the U.S. as I think it will be only in the past tense and I don't like to look back!

[ArranP]

Arran,

As you pointed out, I try not to look at the short term and more at the long term. I think your concerns about the chinese construction boom is real and short term as there are always corrections - but if you look more long term at things like the urbanization of a young maturing country - then irregardless of any crash - however severe will only be a correction - the nature of demand, migration, maturing economy/workforce, etc. ensure that china will follow the path other mature economies have traveled - as will thailand.

If you have noticed - thailand has been building bridges into laos - not because of laos but beyond into the vietnam = china factor. Also, there is work on Asia Highway 1 which will connect all the way from western asia to japan. There is real development in the region because the region is coming up and maturing. The consensus is that the entire region will become a great trading block including russia - along with the other great trading blocks of south america and europe. Whatever happens with crashes, and any unexpected stuff - there really is only one way for things to go - and that is continued growth - however sporadic, up and down and what have you.

In the short term = as I have stated many times - I expect a correction soon - and thailand will be in a good position because they are not as bubbled up as other economies in the region - whcih means they will have less of a correction - but if you look at all the ingredients they share with china, such as a young maturing economy with a young workforce which equals a class of workers who will eventually all move out and buy things for the first time as opposed to an economy of replacers.

What can stop it? A huge unexpected event - but again only temporarily (a year - many years) as the law of nature dictates all things grow unless impeded, but nature is tough and eventually will find a way to overcome the impediment - unless it is too strong - then... well we don't want to go there!

I won't talk about the U.S. as I think it will be only in the past tense and I don't like to look back!

Thanks,

An interesting read, alot of people agree with you in that there will soon be a correction to the China market.

According to p/e ratios the Shanghai Composite exchange is more bubbled up than the Hang Seng exchange.

Do you expect a correction to both exchanges or just the Shanghai Composite ?

Edited June 10, 2007 by ArranP

[backflip]

shochu,

"You need to re-read my post. As happens here so often - members mis-read a post and go off on a tangent. I thougth we were using english here - or are you using some kind of esoteric english.""

Just as you, I don't know what you are talking about. I just hope it doesn't cause lesions.

[shochu]

Arran,

I don't follow the stock markets BECAUSE I never invest in them. Having said that, I know they are a rigged game - really a ponzi scheme made to get investors to put their hard earned money in while the insiders take it - after moving the markets up. They do this time and again and the simple folks have a short memory as they fall for it time and again. Having said that, you can make money if you time it right BUT and this is a big BUT - it really is gambling. There are better things to invest in. Look at any chart over time and they will tell you the truth. The stock markets really don't offer any growth when calculated over time factoring in inflation and other things. However, some people do make it lucky and I use the word LUCK because really, unless you have inside info. that is all it really is. If you could really make money on the markets - then the pros would be really rich and any one who really studied the markets would be too. However, the only people who seem to make money CONSISTENTLY are the inside players and their little group.

Having said that - if you have the money to burn - I would suggest investing no more than say 10% in the markets in the hopes of making it lucky. But then you need to get out or you will lose it. Timing is as they say everything.

By the way, I'm sure there are others here who know the markets better since I don't follow them exept to see the overall picture!

Backflip,

Is that all you can come up with???

[ArranP]

Arran,

I don't follow the stock markets BECAUSE I never invest in them. Having said that, I know they are a rigged game - really a ponzi scheme made to get investors to put their hard earned money in while the insiders take it - after moving the markets up. They do this time and again and the simple folks have a short memory as they fall for it time and again. Having said that, you can make money if you time it right BUT and this is a big BUT - it really is gambling. There are better things to invest in. Look at any chart over time and they will tell you the truth. The stock markets really don't offer any growth when calculated over time factoring in inflation and other things. However, some people do make it lucky and I use the word LUCK because really, unless you have inside info. that is all it really is. If you could really make money on the markets - then the pros would be really rich and any one who really studied the markets would be too. However, the only people who seem to make money CONSISTENTLY are the inside players and their little group.

Having said that - if you have the money to burn - I would suggest investing no more than say 10% in the markets in the hopes of making it lucky. But then you need to get out or you will lose it. Timing is as they say everything.

By the way, I'm sure there are others here who know the markets better since I don't follow them exept to see the overall picture!

Backflip,

Is that all you can come up with???

Hi Socho,

I've taken the fact I see alot of un-certainty in equities at the moment, morgan stanley have all six of there measures at the moment indicateing equity sell-offs, these indicaters have only shown this 5 times over the last 30 years and after each time the equity market has had a correction.

Therefore uncertainty alone is enough for me to switch out of equities into something that is not affected by them. I have chosen funds that invest direct into commercial property in the UK, this gives a 8-10% return per year, its not as exciting as 40-80% returns per year seen over the last 3 years from China, India and Brazil but still its been a stable return.

If there is this so-called correction within the next 6 months, then I am in the fortunate position to make my re-entry-point into equities with full capital and reap the rewardes from the recovery, otherwise the worst I have done is made 5% on my original capital.

Worthwhile doing considering the un-certainty in the China and Global markets over the next 6 months.

Regards

Arran.

[VegasVic]

Arran,

I don't follow the stock markets BECAUSE I never invest in them. Having said that, I know they are a rigged game - really a ponzi scheme made to get investors to put their hard earned money in while the insiders take it - after moving the markets up. They do this time and again and the simple folks have a short memory as they fall for it time and again. Having said that, you can make money if you time it right BUT and this is a big BUT - it really is gambling. There are better things to invest in. Look at any chart over time and they will tell you the truth. The stock markets really don't offer any growth when calculated over time factoring in inflation and other things. However, some people do make it lucky and I use the word LUCK because really, unless you have inside info. that is all it really is. If you could really make money on the markets - then the pros would be really rich and any one who really studied the markets would be too. However, the only people who seem to make money CONSISTENTLY are the inside players and their little group.

Having said that - if you have the money to burn - I would suggest investing no more than say 10% in the markets in the hopes of making it lucky. But then you need to get out or you will lose it. Timing is as they say everything.

By the way, I'm sure there are others here who know the markets better since I don't follow them exept to see the overall picture!

Backflip,

Is that all you can come up with???

Hi Socho,

I've taken the fact I see alot of un-certainty in equities at the moment, morgan stanley have all six of there measures at the moment indicateing equity sell-offs, these indicaters have only shown this 5 times over the last 30 years and after each time the equity market has had a correction.

Therefore uncertainty alone is enough for me to switch out of equities into something that is not affected by them. I have chosen funds that invest direct into commercial property in the UK, this gives a 8-10% return per year, its not as exciting as 40-80% returns per year seen over the last 3 years from China, India and Brazil but still its been a stable return.

If there is this so-called correction within the next 6 months, then I am in the fortunate position to make my re-entry-point into equities with full capital and reap the rewardes from the recovery, otherwise the worst I have done is made 5% on my original capital.

Worthwhile doing considering the un-certainty in the China and Global markets over the next 6 months.

Regards

Arran.

Arran, I think that your commercial property fund in the UK sounds a good place to park your money while you sit back and watch the equity markets in China crumble. This could very well be the mother of all bubbles by the time it colapses and even eclipse the NASDAQ .com bubble. When the bubble bursts it will have a substantial fallout on all the SE asian economies and currencies, how long this downturn will last is anybodys guess, but Thailand is in a weakened state currently and had better get a plan to weather the coming Chinese tsunami. As far as backflip goes he really can't help his ignorance, those thick rose colored glasses that he has been wearing not only affect his perception of things but have apparently been slowly dissolving what little he has left in his cranium. Good luck with your investments my friend.

[VegasVic]

Arran,

I don't follow the stock markets BECAUSE I never invest in them. Having said that, I know they are a rigged game - really a ponzi scheme made to get investors to put their hard earned money in while the insiders take it - after moving the markets up. They do this time and again and the simple folks have a short memory as they fall for it time and again. Having said that, you can make money if you time it right BUT and this is a big BUT - it really is gambling. There are better things to invest in. Look at any chart over time and they will tell you the truth. The stock markets really don't offer any growth when calculated over time factoring in inflation and other things. However, some people do make it lucky and I use the word LUCK because really, unless you have inside info. that is all it really is. If you could really make money on the markets - then the pros would be really rich and any one who really studied the markets would be too. However, the only people who seem to make money CONSISTENTLY are the inside players and their little group.

Having said that - if you have the money to burn - I would suggest investing no more than say 10% in the markets in the hopes of making it lucky. But then you need to get out or you will lose it. Timing is as they say everything.

By the way, I'm sure there are others here who know the markets better since I don't follow them exept to see the overall picture!

Backflip,

Is that all you can come up with???

Hi Socho,

I've taken the fact I see alot of un-certainty in equities at the moment, morgan stanley have all six of there measures at the moment indicateing equity sell-offs, these indicaters have only shown this 5 times over the last 30 years and after each time the equity market has had a correction.

Therefore uncertainty alone is enough for me to switch out of equities into something that is not affected by them. I have chosen funds that invest direct into commercial property in the UK, this gives a 8-10% return per year, its not as exciting as 40-80% returns per year seen over the last 3 years from China, India and Brazil but still its been a stable return.

If there is this so-called correction within the next 6 months, then I am in the fortunate position to make my re-entry-point into equities with full capital and reap the rewardes from the recovery, otherwise the worst I have done is made 5% on my original capital.

Worthwhile doing considering the un-certainty in the China and Global markets over the next 6 months.

Regards

Arran.

Arran, I think that your commercial property fund in the UK sounds a good place to park your money while you sit back and watch the equity markets in China crumble. This could very well be the mother of all bubbles by the time it colapses and even eclipse the NASDAQ .com bubble. When the bubble bursts it will have a substantial fallout on all the SE asian economies and currencies, how long this downturn will last is anybodys guess, but Thailand is in a weakened state currently and had better get a plan to weather the coming Chinese tsunami. As far as backflip goes he really can't help his ignorance, those thick rose colored glasses that he has been wearing not only affect his perception of things but have apparently been slowly dissolving what little he has left in his cranium. Good luck with your investments my friend.

Sorry backflip, I got your handle mixed up with another poster who constantly posts about how good the Thai economy is doing, despite all indications to the contrary.

[wasabi]

I think America will be great again, just a slight 8 year detour with chimp at the helm. China will choke on the fumes of their showcase cities and charcoal burning walmart trinket sweatshops.

[shochu]

VegasVic,

Are you refering to me?

I am not pro thai or pro anything - just seeing things as they are.

I find it laughable how you can consider inflation negating oil - as it is a part of everything in life - hence can not be excluded. EVERYTHING is effected by the price of oil - PERIOD. The way YOUR handy economists use their inflation numbers is to make idjuts like yourself to think they are still ahead of the game by tossing numbers that exclude the most important elements in the equation. To base things in such as way explains you are the newspaper reading armchair economist I know you to be.

America will do fine in your words. NOW that is laughable. If you have read anything I have said - I have said so many times - thailand will have problems in the short term - but in the long term their economy looks good based on fundamentals. How is this so hard to understand? Where do I say their economy is doing well despite all indications???

Are we having a difficult time here understanding.

Perhaps you should take off those gypsy rose glasses with the jingoistic tinting of all things great and mighty U.S.A.

Oh, by the way - the U.S. war machine is the largest single user of oil in the world!

And inflation is clocking in at way over the base 2 digits. AND I don't have to tell a hardened economist like yourself what this really means - now do I.

And yes - America will be great - tell that to the growing masses of underemployed, overextended sheeple. Oh, and if you have an incling of the future or can grasp the direction the world is headed in - then I wish you luck in your utopian U.S.A. - BECAUSE you will most definitely need it!!!

Once the free ride of having everone use their currecny comes to an end - then you can tell me how great things are for the U.S.

[VegasVic]

VegasVic,

Are you refering to me?

I am not pro thai or pro anything - just seeing things as they are.

I find it laughable how you can consider inflation negating oil - as it is a part of everything in life - hence can not be excluded. EVERYTHING is effected by the price of oil - PERIOD. The way YOUR handy economists use their inflation numbers is to make idjuts like yourself to think they are still ahead of the game by tossing numbers that exclude the most important elements in the equation. To base things in such as way explains you are the newspaper reading armchair economist I know you to be.

America will do fine in your words. NOW that is laughable. If you have read anything I have said - I have said so many times - thailand will have problems in the short term - but in the long term their economy looks good based on fundamentals. How is this so hard to understand? Where do I say their economy is doing well despite all indications???

Are we having a difficult time here understanding.

Perhaps you should take off those gypsy rose glasses with the jingoistic tinting of all things great and mighty U.S.A.

Oh, by the way - the U.S. war machine is the largest single user of oil in the world!

And inflation is clocking in at way over the base 2 digits. AND I don't have to tell a hardened economist like yourself what this really means - now do I.

And yes - America will be great - tell that to the growing masses of underemployed, overextended sheeple. Oh, and if you have an incling of the future or can grasp the direction the world is headed in - then I wish you luck in your utopian U.S.A. - BECAUSE you will most definitely need it!!!

Once the free ride of having everone use their currecny comes to an end - then you can tell me how great things are for the U.S.

Whoa, calm down there snapperhead! No I wasn't refering to you, but you certainly are showing your true colors aren't you? A bit defensive are we? One thing is for certain and that is that english must be your second language, because if you had any understanding of the english language you would have been able to read and comprehend the post in which I clearly stated that without energy in the equation the U.S. actually has disinflation and even with the recent energy price increases inflation in the U.S. is at historically low levels around 2.5%(I guess in your world if you ignore decimal points that it is double digits). The U.S. is also experiencing record low levels of unemployment currently and all time record highs on Wall Street. The recent polling of the worlds central bankers showed that by a factor of 4 to 1 they feel that the U.S. dollar will be the safest and strongest curency in the world over the next 25 years. China on the other hand, while it does show some promise in the years to come, has an equity market that more closely resembles a ponzi scheme than a real stock exchange. Until China fully embraces capitalisim they will never be seen as a true free market economy and will never grow anywhere close to their full potrential, and perhaps when this inevitable crash does occur it will wake some of the old line central government commies up to this fact. The Thai people have sadly suffered through the Tsuanmi, the military overthrow of their government, an economy that is in a severe downward spiral and soon will suffer the effects of the market crash in China. My heart goes out to the Thai people and I can only hope for their sakes that this military hunta does indeed have free and fair elections or get overthrown by a group that will! I think now that I have shed some light on your ignorance sir that you will wake up and smell the coffee yourself. Q.E.D.

[shochu]

Ignorance is never appreciated by those that suffer from it the most!

VIC,

I find it laughable that you think the U.S. is doing well job wise. Perhaps you should look around you a little more - if you are in the states - then you would see things as they really were and not regurgitate the planned media diet that most sheeple there seem to believe.

Inflation at only 2.5% - Am I reading this correctly. Do you actually go out and buy things on a daily basis??? Perhaps you should stop reading the garbage the media feeds the unsuspecting public and try to do some research on your own.

The stock market at all time record highs??? Am I reading this correctly??? Perhaps you should try to do some simple math using inflation and currency depreciation to see just exactly where wall street is historically.

Give it a little time as fed insiders have just released a major report to all the industry players saying their economy is about to take a right hook and your lovely wall street and their cohorts in the major industries are about to go down for the count.

Just give it some time and we shall see ...

Look at the fundamentals -and they will speak volumes for the future of where china and where america will be. I hope you can figure out this part on your own as it will take some work.

If I have reacted at all - it is because whenever anyone says something that is not overly thai negative many people seem to think the person an anomoly - BUT - when someone says anything negative ala thai - every monkey on the board who agrees jumps in like its a party. I guess seeing things as they are is just too much for some sheeple to handle.

[PCA]

Ignorance is never appreciated by those that suffer from it the most!

VIC,

I find it laughable that you think the U.S. is doing well job wise. Perhaps you should look around you a little more - if you are in the states - then you would see things as they really were and not regurgitate the planned media diet that most sheeple there seem to believe.

Inflation at only 2.5% - Am I reading this correctly. Do you actually go out and buy things on a daily basis??? Perhaps you should stop reading the garbage the media feeds the unsuspecting public and try to do some research on your own.

The stock market at all time record highs??? Am I reading this correctly??? Perhaps you should try to do some simple math using inflation and currency depreciation to see just exactly where wall street is historically.

Give it a little time as fed insiders have just released a major report to all the industry players saying their economy is about to take a right hook and your lovely wall street and their cohorts in the major industries are about to go down for the count.

Just give it some time and we shall see ...

Look at the fundamentals -and they will speak volumes for the future of where china and where america will be. I hope you can figure out this part on your own as it will take some work.

If I have reacted at all - it is because whenever anyone says something that is not overly thai negative many people seem to think the person an anomoly - BUT - when someone says anything negative ala thai - every monkey on the board who agrees jumps in like its a party. I guess seeing things as they are is just too much for some sheeple to handle.

Shochu,

you get my vote and you are very right. America will not go down that much in my opinnion but one is going to fall and thats either their currency or their economy. The Fed will chose and I want to point out that the Fed is not an institution of the government.

[kdvsn]

Ignorance is never appreciated by those that suffer from it the most!

VIC,

I find it laughable that you think the U.S. is doing well job wise. Perhaps you should look around you a little more - if you are in the states - then you would see things as they really were and not regurgitate the planned media diet that most sheeple there seem to believe.

Inflation at only 2.5% - Am I reading this correctly. Do you actually go out and buy things on a daily basis??? Perhaps you should stop reading the garbage the media feeds the unsuspecting public and try to do some research on your own.

The stock market at all time record highs??? Am I reading this correctly??? Perhaps you should try to do some simple math using inflation and currency depreciation to see just exactly where wall street is historically.

Give it a little time as fed insiders have just released a major report to all the industry players saying their economy is about to take a right hook and your lovely wall street and their cohorts in the major industries are about to go down for the count.

Just give it some time and we shall see ...

Look at the fundamentals -and they will speak volumes for the future of where china and where america will be. I hope you can figure out this part on your own as it will take some work.

If I have reacted at all - it is because whenever anyone says something that is not overly thai negative many people seem to think the person an anomoly - BUT - when someone says anything negative ala thai - every monkey on the board who agrees jumps in like its a party. I guess seeing things as they are is just too much for some sheeple to handle.

That's a good point that the US stock market is not at an all-time high if you compensate the indices for currency devaluation and for inflation. But if one compensates the US stock market indices for devaluation of the US dollar, ought one not also compenstate the domestic inflation rate for the devaluation of the dollar? If one were to express the US's inflation rate in Euros instead of Dollars, one would conclude that the US has been experiencing deflation for the past few years.

[VegasVic]

Ignorance is never appreciated by those that suffer from it the most!

VIC,

I find it laughable that you think the U.S. is doing well job wise. Perhaps you should look around you a little more - if you are in the states - then you would see things as they really were and not regurgitate the planned media diet that most sheeple there seem to believe.

Inflation at only 2.5% - Am I reading this correctly. Do you actually go out and buy things on a daily basis??? Perhaps you should stop reading the garbage the media feeds the unsuspecting public and try to do some research on your own.

The stock market at all time record highs??? Am I reading this correctly??? Perhaps you should try to do some simple math using inflation and currency depreciation to see just exactly where wall street is historically.

ochu

Give it a little time as fed insiders have just released a major report to all the industry players saying their economy is about to take a right hook and your lovely wall street and their cohorts in the major industries are about to go down for the count.

Just give it some time and we shall see ...

Look at the fundamentals -and they will speak volumes for the future of where china and where america will be. I hope you can figure out this part on your own as it will take some work.

If I have reacted at all - it is because whenever anyone says something that is not overly thai negative many people seem to think the person an anomoly - BUT - when someone says anything negative ala thai - every monkey on the board who agrees jumps in like its a party. I guess seeing things as they are is just too much for some sheeple to handle.

It looks like I must have struck a nerve with you sochu, just sit back and let that blood pressure ease off a little pal! If you are in a bad way in your personal economic situation then I feel sorry for you, but I can assure you that for most of us in the U.S.A. things are very good and have been for a while. The U.S. has the most free and open media in the world so I am not sure where you are going with the statement about believing what the media regurgitates (just because you live under a military dictatorship currently and can't trust what the government says doesn't mean that is the way it is everywhere in the world). The fact is that not only does the U.S. have full employment for its citizens but we also employ millions of illegal immigrants that don't even show up in the data, and despite the rise in energy prices inflation is less than 3% and the market averages are indeed at all time record levels (even the European and Asian papers say so-hehehe). Over the last 5 or 6 years my profits from investments in U.S. equities and U.S. real estate have outpaced inflation by nearly a 5:1 margin, and most of the people that I know have done nearly as well and some even better. I am not sure where you come up with this garbage about the FED feeding industry insiders with information, the FED has always published complete minutes from all of their FOMC meetings. I personally feel(and hope) that in either the Aug. 8th meeting or the Sept. 18th meeting that the FED does raise rates by 25 basis points, but I doubt they will raise rates in their meeting next week(despite your inside information). If you really think that everything is rosy in the chinese equity markets then by all means (if you have any money to invest) please go right ahead and put your money in chinese equities, you obviously don't have the first clue as to what is happening in the U.S. so I would recomend that you stay away! Come to think of it you seem to be pretty clueless as to what is going on in thailand currently and you profess a complete ignorance about the coming meltdown in china, so if you do have some money you may want to bury it in the backyard. If you feel the need to go on another rant please go right ahead, but this is the last time that I will try to educate you.

[shochu]

Vic,

My boy - you sem to have a hard time foloowing a simple discussion.

First of all, I never said the chinese market was not bubbled up. It is and will burst - but then go right back up.

Second, I find it funny that you would say the U.S. media is the freest in the world. Is that why some large investors are trying to buy up all the small dailies in small towns that are not really internet savy so they can offer them free news - or might it be to control what they get? Oh, by the way - they are doing this more or less under the radar. Why are the big boys trying to corner the news in the states where they can? And so you really believe everthing in the U.S. media. I feel sorry for you if you do - poor sheep.

Third, do you understand how the fed calculates unemployment numbers? If you did - then you would not be making such ridiculous statments.

Fourth, If you really, really understood how the markets and the the whole social economic model worked - you really wouldn't be making such funny statements.

Fifth, the only reason the U.S. has any modicum of superiority is really because they have the world by the balls so to speak in that they control the international currency for trade. But this is about to come to an end - and when it does - then you can kiss your pension and the whole jingo jango good-bye.

Sixth, I have a pretty good idea what is going on in thailand - do you?

Seventh, looks like you are the one with your panties in a bunch - AND - setting things right - I have always been ME and there has never been any hidden tone with me - I treat people the way they deserved to be treated - BUT - it seems we are seeing you for who YOU really are.

Eight, I am pretty financially secure - and all my investments are doing well except for one - but this is only in the short term and I had no choice as I have an account which I draw on.

PCA,

You are correct - ever since the infamous meeting on Jekyll Island - the country has been in the hands of the bankers and their cronies. Unfortunately - most amercians don't know this. Imagine having to pay for the priviledge of usinf yourown currency. a most dastardly crime on the people of the U.S.

kdvsn,

(During delfation things get cheaper - but - they have been getting more expensvie for the average american)

Your argument is moot - as the only thing that matters is the U.S. dollar is losing buying power because of the flood of dollars on the market. The building boom and all things booming are directly related to the world holders of this worthless fiat currency trying to get rid of it for something they hope will have longer lasting value as the dollar is on its way down. Nobody wants to be left holding this paper and it seems a race to the bottom is being played out. After the dust has settled - would you rather have dollars that aren't worth the paper they're printed on or a devalued piece of something tangible. Imagine what will happen when the boomers start retiring in numbers and their pensions which are tied to the markets implode under the weight - or should I say evaporate into thin air. I guess that's why all the insiders have been exiting the markets.

Hey - but what do I know.

[LaoPo]

......... the coming meltdown in china...

What dreamworld are you living in VegasVic; Oh I forgot, the Arizona desert, right?

When was the last time you visited China?

I have personally watched, studied and been in China over the past 30 years and am even there now.

"the coming meltdown in China..." <_<

Take a holiday- or business trip and I guarantee you that after your first day, you will be exhausted of what you see around you, whatever city you're in; you'll need a strong drink or 2 in the bar of your 4 or 5 star hotel which, by the way, will be filled and crowded by American, European, Japanese, Australian, Korean, Russian and other nationality business people.

If you're talking 1 or some corrections...yes, that will happen, but will not effect the stock market listed companies themselves and total business and economical environment.

Don't ever underestimate the Chinese intelligence or bounce-back abilities.

Yes, people (some 100 million...) do invest in stocks on the stockmarket of which quite a number are overvalued but hey, did you forget about the 2000 bubble in the US and elsewhere? It happened before and will again but:

....a coming meltdown of China....

It will not happen.

Maybe you forget 1 thing:

We're living in a Global world and IF there will be a (global) 'meltdown' it will be due to a terrifying war.... and we'll all suffer, even in the AZ desert....

[bingobongo]

resistance on the Shanghai is 4321 to 4335, last time it hit that amount it tumbled down to 3700 or so, it appears to be stalling again as it approaches that mark

Edited June 20, 2007 by bingobongo

[LaoPo]

resistance on the Shanghai is 4321 to 4335, last time it hit that amount it tumbled down to 3700 or so, it appears to be stalling again as it approaches that mark

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,181.32; down 2.07% on Wednesday.

I see it as healthy that the 'fever' amongst the investors must come down. Once a lot of people have lost money they will walk away from the stockmarkets.

The same happened in the west after spring 2000. That's 7 years ago...

Chinese are amongst the largest savers in the world, unlike some other big spending countries like the US where the majority live in debt.

There's just some 5% of the total savings of Chinese people in the stockmarkets and the 100 million people with a stock-account are mostly small time investors. Not something to worry about big deal in order to disturb the total economy.

But I expect the Shanghai index to go down further since the government will install new measures as from July 1 to cut tax rebates for more than 2.800 products, representing 37% of all export products and that, of course, could lead to a slowdown in profitability in some of the listed companies.

Again, a healthy step for the economy in order to slow down the overheated situation.

LaoPo

Edited June 20, 2007 by LaoPo

[bingobongo]

China Bubble Threatens Japan-Style Bust

"The banking system is still based on collateral and the collateral is all overvalued," says Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

"In the case of China you can make a very plausible case that we have all the conditions for a serious crisis when there's an adverse shock," Pettis says. "There's a lot more debt out there than we think."

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/06/20/ap3840397.html

Edited June 20, 2007 by bingobongo

[LaoPo]

China Bubble Threatens Japan-Style Bust

"The banking system is still based on collateral and the collateral is all overvalued," says Andy Xie, an independent economist based in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

"In the case of China you can make a very plausible case that we have all the conditions for a serious crisis when there's an adverse shock," Pettis says. "There's a lot more debt out there than we think."

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/06/20/ap3840397.html

Interesting article bingobingo.

Analysts however are not always right; if they were, they would be filthy rich and most aren't.

The article also says:

"However, unlike Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia, which were left owing billions of dollars in foreign debts when their currencies collapsed in 1997, China has kept strict controls on its capital markets - insulating them from most external shocks.

Moreover, thanks largely to its soaring trade surplus and booming economy, China is awash in cash. Its foreign currency reserves, at $1.2 trillion, are the world's biggest. Beijing could easily dip into those to pre-empt a brewing crisis."

That doesn't mean China and other regional countries are facing growth pain..they do, a lot.

I observed and witnessed a lot of negative publicity about China and it's neighbours but IMHO it's a kind of fear from people who have never been there...never witnessed the enormous changes in the past 30 years.

Still, most people from the west have never been there and -can- only rely on what they see, hear and read in the media, also from analysts.

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

......... the coming meltdown in china...

What dreamworld are you living in VegasVic; Oh I forgot, the Arizona desert, right?

When was the last time you visited China?

I have personally watched, studied and been in China over the past 30 years and am even there now.

"the coming meltdown in China..."

Take a holiday- or business trip and I guarantee you that after your first day, you will be exhausted of what you see around you, whatever city you're in; you'll need a strong drink or 2 in the bar of your 4 or 5 star hotel which, by the way, will be filled and crowded by American, European, Japanese, Australian, Korean, Russian and other nationality business people.

If you're talking 1 or some corrections...yes, that will happen, but will not effect the stock market listed companies themselves and total business and economical environment.

Don't ever underestimate the Chinese intelligence or bounce-back abilities.

Yes, people (some 100 million...) do invest in stocks on the stockmarket of which quite a number are overvalued but hey, did you forget about the 2000 bubble in the US and elsewhere? It happened before and will again but:

....a coming meltdown of China....

It will not happen.

Maybe you forget 1 thing:

We're living in a Global world and IF there will be a (global) 'meltdown' it will be due to a terrifying war.... and we'll all suffer, even in the AZ desert....

Have a nice day.

LaoPo

The NASDAQ was wildly overvalued back in 2000 just as the chinese equity markets are today and the chinese markets will have the same fate as the NASDAQ did 7 years ago(in fact the chinese situation is more dangerous do to the type of government they have and that they are not really a true market economy). Remember that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. By the way my home in Sedona is paid for so barring nuclear fallout I don't think that I'll be suffering too much except for the fact that a global meltdown will cause inflation and I'll have to pay more for a dozen titlest pro V1's.

[LaoPo]

The NASDAQ was wildly overvalued back in 2000 just as the chinese equity markets are today and the chinese markets will have the same fate as the NASDAQ did 7 years ago(in fact the chinese situation is more dangerous do to the type of government they have and that they are not really a true market economy). Remember that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. By the way my home in Sedona is paid for so barring nuclear fallout I don't think that I'll be suffering too much except for the fact that a global meltdown will cause inflation and I'll have to pay more for a dozen titlest pro V1's.

Nice to know your house is paid off VV ! Mine's too

Hmm..I don't know which government is more dangerous to the world....the US or China. Time will tell, won't it? But, you're going a bit off-topic since you were mentioning a 'meltdown in China' before.

Well, whatever happens to Thailand's economy (that was the OP's question) because of the situation in China (and/or rest of the world), we all try to survive.

BUT, if there would be a meltdown in China, the rest of the world will suffer badly as well. We're Global people now, not limited to a single country or part of the world anymore, whether we like it or not.

Cheers and wish you all the best.

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

gentlemen, gentlemen i think we can all agree to disagree

LaoPo, I was in China in 2005, I was in Beijing and Shanghai, and took trip to Xian. Interesting part of the world.

As for the Shanghai Index, the resistance of 4351 still remains in place, it got close but fell back like it did in May

^SSEC June 22 Shanghai Composite 4,091.45 3:00AM ET 139.38 (3.29%)

If it fails to break 4351, then a fall to 3500 is in the cards, so watch that 4351 resistance level, the common investor in China will take it on the chin if it does fail

Edited June 22, 2007 by bingobongo

[LaoPo]

LaoPo, I was in China in 2005, I was in Beijing and Shanghai, and took trip to Xian. Interesting part of the world.

I know bingo...I know; I'm in China now and was in 3 cities in 1 1/2 week....suffered from a Korean food poisoning; had a doctor + nurse + my wife in my hotelroom today...I know...it's like the stockmarkets...one day it's better than the other.

keep smiling

LaoPo

[kdvsn]

kdvsn,

(During delfation things get cheaper - but - they have been getting more expensvie for the average american)

Your argument is moot - as the only thing that matters is the U.S. dollar is losing buying power because of the flood of dollars on the market. The building boom and all things booming are directly related to the world holders of this worthless fiat currency trying to get rid of it for something they hope will have longer lasting value as the dollar is on its way down. Nobody wants to be left holding this paper and it seems a race to the bottom is being played out. After the dust has settled - would you rather have dollars that aren't worth the paper they're printed on or a devalued piece of something tangible. Imagine what will happen when the boomers start retiring in numbers and their pensions which are tied to the markets implode under the weight - or should I say evaporate into thin air. I guess that's why all the insiders have been exiting the markets.

Hey - but what do I know.

Not much apparently. You were arguing that gains in the US stock market must be adjusted for both the devaluation of the dollar and for domestic inflation. To do that, one must use the same currency units to value both US domestic inflation and the DOW. It is not valid to convert the DOW into Euros while denominating inflation in US dollars. What you are doing is picking a different curency for each metric in a slight-of-hand attempt to demonstate that the US is in a state of economic despair. The fact remains that a person living in the USA who has had invested his money in the US stock market since the start of the Iraq war has seen the buying power of his portfolio increase IF he spends his money in the USA, Japan, or China, and do slightly better than break-even if he spends his money overseas ex-Japan & ex-China.

Edited June 24, 2007 by kdvsn

[bingobongo]

it is getting very interesting, it will also be interesting to see how many mortgage backed securities were bundled and sold to China.......given the mortgage market in the US is collapsing rendering those bonds pennies on the dollar.....

charts compare 1999 NASDAQ with current Shanghai Index, watch that 4351 resistance level

Edited June 24, 2007 by bingobongo

[shochu]

kdvsn,

Please speekish engleeshish - using a logical line of reasoning.

I tried to understand your logic the first time - and - this second time again - but alaas - I give up.

I don't know what is so hard to understand about inflation/currency erosion over time against perceived highs - but - you win for trying to make the simplest thing sound so ineligible.