Thailand: Intensifying Coup Rumors

[bingobongo]

Thailand: Intensifying Coup Rumors

June 13, 2007 15 37 GMT

Rumors of another coup in Thailand are again spreading through Bangkok, eliciting government denials and calls for calm. The most recent rumor began circulating the night of June 13, suggesting that a coup was mere hours away. Though such rumors have circulated several times in the past week, this latest one appears more urgent.

According to information from Bangkok, the military, under Thai army chief Gen. Sonthi Boonyaratglin, intends to remove interim Prime Minister Gen. Surayud Chulanont. Growing fractures between the prime minister and the military have been emerging. Though there are suggestions that Surayud's recent invitation to ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to return was the breaking point for the military, the level of contradictory statements from the two has been a source of friction for some time.

There are numerous bureaucrats the military could put in place to replace Surayud, and the military would likely say a constitutional referendum and the transition to civilian rule will remain on track (though inevitably there will be another delay). More directly, the transition would place Sonthi firmly in charge of Thailand, allowing him to take a more aggressive approach to dealing with opposition elements. The replacement of Surayud thus could lead to a rapid increase in the scope and scale of government moves against the opposition, from arrests and freezing of assets to potential violence.

The reports of an imminent coup are unconfirmed, and this could be just another false alarm. Thai media has been conveying messages throughout the day telling people not to believe rumors of a coup -- a message that could have been directed just as squarely at Surayud, warning him to fall in line behind Sonthi or face a coup.

Regardless of whether Surayud is removed, it appears the military under Sonthi is preparing to increase its control over the policies and statements of the government, seal the rhetorical disconnect between the military and the interim government, and step up operations against opposition elements in the country. Even without the removal of Surayud, the stage is set at least for the return of a state of emergency.

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/r...e.php?id=290244

good luck Thailand, you will need it

Edited June 13, 2007 by bingobongo

[jeffrosner]

If that information came from Stratfor you should all pull down your pants, and plant your head where it can take some cover. Stratfor is rarely wrong.

[qualtrough]

If that information came from Stratfor you should all pull down your pants, and plant your head where it can take some cover. Stratfor is rarely wrong.

Qualtrough does not believe that Mr. Rosner forgot his shtick!!

[sriracha john]

Might we roll this thread into the one george started?

Bangkok Still Calm After Coup Rumours