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Economic Growth Expected Amid Inflation Crisis


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*The minister said Thailand has seen increased investment over the past five years, particularly in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), with exports remaining the nation’s primary driver for growth.*

 

These guys are in lala land. 

Last week in the US, Target and Walmart reported, the S&P slipped into recession zone(-20% from highs).

With 0-Covid and supply chain woes from China, crazy inflation and a world resession looming ?

Plane prices are going crazy, inflation in your home country is going to keep people from traveling and buying luxury goods.

 

One thing is right, exports are the primary driver. Cause tourists are not going to come anytime soon IMO.

 

 

 

 

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Wasn't it just last week, I think it might of been someone from the banking industry said they projected a decrease in economic growth. I remember commenting that "the baht will now strengthen" of course being sarcastic. Might be wrong and can't be bothered looking back but fairly sure I can remember something like this.

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None of these officials seem to know what economics are about but they are probably generals so they speak the truth

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2 hours ago, Gsxrnz said:

Meanwhile, back in the real world......

Well maybe the tourist business will grow back from near zero!

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I noted the statement that there has been an increase of household debt AT 15%, whereas I think they mean OF 15%. What is household debt as a % of annual GDP now, approaching 95%?

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, garyk said:

*The minister said Thailand has seen increased investment over the past five years (...)

I just posted this in another topic. - Was the minister talking about Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)? If so, I don't see how he can call a change from 8 or 13 billion U.S. dollars to 2.48 billion an 'increase'.

 

FDI Net inflows in billion U.S. dollars:

2021       2.48*

2020     -4.77**

2019       4.82**

2018     13.19**

2017       8.29**

 

 

 

 

(*Source: https://thaiembdc.org/2022/02/08/u-s-was-2nd-largest-foreign-investor-in-thailand-in-2021/

 

**Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/607941/thailand-foreign-direct-investment-net-inflows/)

 

Edited by StayinThailand2much
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Re: tourists. The coming high season will not be that high even if all restrictions are lifted (which is not a guarantee). Economic crash (worse than a normal recession) will wipe the pent up demand when people will be spending the money they saved for vacations on basic necessities, loan payments, etc. More countries will be in fierce competition for rare tourists. Chinese tourists might not arrive at all.

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There seems to be a lot of certainty about poor prospects for the Thai economy and how inept the Thai government is about forecasting and managing it.  I would advise readers here not to take actions based on these inconsequential opinions.  Most of the pessimism on this forum is exaggerated and uninformed. 

 

A 20% decline in a stock market index from 'recent' high is not a recession.  It is the classic definition of a 'bear market.'  A recession is not defined by a bear market.  It is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.  The Thai economy expanded last quarter.

 

The S&P is down about 16% from its high over a year ago.  The Dow is down about 12%.  The U.S. has had one quarter of contraction and it will not be known if the U.S. is in a recession until August.  

 

The U.S. is not in a bear market, and we do not know if the U.S. is in a recession.  Mainstream economists in the U.S. believe there is 30% chance of recession next quarter.

 

The current weakness in the baht is good for exports which is one of the previously (and correctly) forecasted growth areas by the Thai government.  Exports are up an incredible 18.9% y/y in March 2022.

 

Thai GDP is growing at 2.2% y/y as of Q1 2022.  On top of that, tourism is likely to grow and has huge potential upside for further economic growth.  

 

Household debt at 95% is in line with many industrialized countries.  There are several countries in Europe with household debt over 100% of GDP.  The U.S. is 75% and the U.K is 87%. Thai government debt is 58% of GDP which is far less than most industrialized nations.  

 

I would like to know what actions (investments, sales, hedges, shorts, futures, puts, calls, etc.) the pessimists here are taking based on their opinions.  Personally, I have made recent investments in Thai real estate which is an indirect bet on tourism and the baht.  I am also invested in baht futures and oil which is a major Thai export.  I have sold other holdings to take these positions and I am considering more investments related to the Thai economy.  I have no shorts, put options, or reverse EFTs for Thai or global markets.  

 

I do not have great faith in the Thai government, but I believe they are generally correct about their assessments and their policies with respect to the economy.  I believe Thailand and their relatively inexpensive and educated workforce is positioned for growth into the next few years and beyond.

 

The Thai COVID policies had a devastating effect on Thai economy, especially tourism, but in general were/are commensurate with other Southeast Asian nations.  Thailand has a growing economy with newly developed sustainable strength in exports.  Thailand now has an opportunity to build a new lower-volume up-scale tourist industry that their economy is less dependent on.  The Thai government is making policies and infrastructure investments to support that very strategy.

 

The biggest challenges and risks I see are uncontrollable factors such as war in Ukraine and interdependence with China.  

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