Analysis: Nine Months After Coup, Democracy Faces Uncertain Future In Thailand

[bingobongo]

democracy in Thailand is dead, the elections in Nov or Dec (or whenver they feel like it) will not be legitimate......enjoy your police state, those with the biggest guns and wallets will be in charge, it will be interesting to see how 16 million disenfranchised folks react given they will be poorer then they were a year ago.....good luck Thailand, you are going to need it

"Despite a pledge by the military-led government to return Thailand to democracy by December, it is increasingly clear that the country's political direction will likely be determined not by voters but by lawyers, guns and money."

. ....the army looks to be stacking the deck for polls due in December by keeping all political parties weak.

"The new government will be weak, and it has to compromise with and be subjected to the influence of the elite."

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/06/20/...cy-Derailed.php

Edited June 20, 2007 by bingobongo

[jdinasia]

wow! I didn't know that the AP did Op-Ed pieces

Edited June 20, 2007 by jdinasia

[chevykanteve]

democracy in Thailand is dead, the elections in Nov or Dec (or whenver they feel like it) will not be legitimate......enjoy your police state, those with the biggest guns and wallets will be in charge, it will be interesting to see how 16 million disenfranchised folks react given they will be poorer then they were a year ago.....good luck Thailand, you are going to need it

"Despite a pledge by the military-led government to return Thailand to democracy by December, it is increasingly clear that the country's political direction will likely be determined not by voters but by lawyers, guns and money."

. ....the army looks to be stacking the deck for polls due in December by keeping all political parties weak.

"The new government will be weak, and it has to compromise with and be subjected to the influence of the elite."

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/06/20/...cy-Derailed.php

The IHT link is a great article! Thanks so very much for posting this!

[chinthee]

Yes, it's nice to read something from a respected international rag. At least he wasn't referred to as "beloved."

[highdiver]

virtual reality at its best....

and now for the facts as of 19:00

Thailand's military-installed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said Wednesday it is possible to hold a fresh general election earlier than the planned schedule.

After having a 30-minute meeting with relevant authorities, Surayud told reporters, "From general discussion we had, it is possible to accelerate the schedule for the election." He has pledged to hold the election either Dec. 16 or Dec. 23.

Suchart Sukhakkhanond, chief of the Election Commission of Thailand, said, "If a national referendum (on a new constitution) could be held Aug. 19, the general election could be held Nov. 25."

Noranit Settabutra, chairman of the constitutional drafting committee, was among the participants in the talks on a possible election date. Local media have reported that the drafting committee tried to wrap up their meetings by the end of this month. The six-month assignment is to end July 6.

the only goverment in the world and the only politician that has kept his words and is doing everything he promised is the Thai Junta.

[jdinasia]

Yes, it's nice to read something from a respected international rag. At least he wasn't referred to as "beloved."

At least they didn't pretend it was either news OR balanced

edit .... reading that was like watching Fox

Edited June 20, 2007 by jdinasia

[Mid]

and the biggest word in the English language is ?

[chinthee]

Yes, it's nice to read something from a respected international rag. At least he wasn't referred to as "beloved."

At least they didn't pretend it was either news OR balanced

edit .... reading that was like watching Fox

Well...come one, the IHT is the "McDonald's of international news" or the "USA today" gone foreign. But, there is a modicum of credibility to their views, which is better than it being ignored. I mean, come on, who cares about Thailand on the world stage? It is nothing news. Only those of us who live here are so consumed.

[highdiver]

and the biggest word in the English language is ?

comprehension

noun

the ability to understand completely and be aware of a situation, facts, etc:

[Mid]

ho hum

Early polls possible

BangkokPost.com

The Election Commission says it may be able to bring forward a general election earlier planned for December to Nov 25 - if the draft constitution is approved quickly.

should , could , may , if ................................

"I don't want to predict anything, but I want to urge the people to choose what we have seen," he said. "What we have not seen may not be as good."

Edited June 20, 2007 by Mid

[bingobongo]

hello highdiver, still swimming against the current like a salmon fish eh? must be tiring

well we know what happens to salmon as they swim upstream (no matter how noble their efforts), they eventually get tired, thrown against the rocks or eaten by a bear

[Livinginexile]

Yes I fear Thaksin is going to look like a model politician in a year or two.

I just can't believe the Thai people let this happen and that they are not doing something about it now.

It is clearly obvious what the junta is trying to do but from my discussions with the locals....most Thais have no clue on whats going on.

[Mid]

I just can't believe the Thai people let this happen and that they are not doing something about it now.

Trading Summary Classified by Investor Types

As of 19 Jun 2007 Unit: M.Baht

Type Buy Sell Net

Individual 9,083.49 11,118.28 -2,034.78

[jdinasia]

Yes I fear Thaksin is going to look like a model politician in a year or two.

I just can't believe the Thai people let this happen and that they are not doing something about it now.

It is clearly obvious what the junta is trying to do but from my discussions with the locals....most Thais have no clue on whats going on.

I would think the Thais in Sydney know what is going on ......

and I know the folks around me know .. and the ones around me think "so far so good!" They are glad to see Thaksin on the rails for his graft and corruption and also for destroying a fragile democracy.

The burning issue here is not the Junta, but what is happening just a few hours drive south of here!

[cclub75]

virtual reality at its best....

and now for the facts as of 19:00

Thailand's military-installed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said Wednesday it is possible to hold a fresh general election earlier than the planned schedule.

The elections are still "conditionnal". Pure propaganda. Easy for the PM to say "will" and then "could". Elections could happen on 25 november. May be.

No need to be a Constitutionalist lawyer to understand that something is wrong.

What about the new constitution ? Ah yes a referendum in august. How will vote the 16 millions people who have voted for TRT in april last year ?

And what about political parties ? No more TRT. Before 25 november, will they have time to form a new one ? If not, what's the point to have general elections with only Democrats ?

It would be the exact miror of the situation of last april !

So as you can see, nothing changed, the situation is still volatile.

It makes people feel good to imagine that all the problems are solved. Actually there aren't.

The article in IHT is very good. And it's pleasure to see that large foreign medias start to understand what is really going on in Thailand.

[highdiver]

hello highdiver, still swimming against the current like a salmon fish eh? must be tiring

well we know what happens to salmon as they swim upstream (no matter how noble their efforts), they eventually get tired, thrown against the rocks or eaten by a bear

I can feel your pain as each attept to discredit thailand is metched by facts... i understand you are unhappy to see the economy and even politics are not living up to your dooms day predicitions.

By no means do I consider myself intellectually superior to you. Just

because I am trying to teach you something that is usually innate and comes

easy to those who are clever and intelligent, or at least quick-witted, does

not mean that I presume to think myself your superior, and expect that you

genuflect before me.

[lannarebirth]

democracy in Thailand is dead, the elections in Nov or Dec (or whenver they feel like it) will not be legitimate......enjoy your police state, those with the biggest guns and wallets will be in charge, it will be interesting to see how 16 million disenfranchised folks react given they will be poorer then they were a year ago.....good luck Thailand, you are going to need it

"Despite a pledge by the military-led government to return Thailand to democracy by December, it is increasingly clear that the country's political direction will likely be determined not by voters but by lawyers, guns and money."

. ....the army looks to be stacking the deck for polls due in December by keeping all political parties weak.

"The new government will be weak, and it has to compromise with and be subjected to the influence of the elite."

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/06/20/...cy-Derailed.php

It would seem, that it is your belief that relentless postings of negative news articles will fetch you a condominium at a greatly reduced price. I doubt that that will come to pass, but good luck to you. Hey, here's an avatar idea:

http://azraelscustomleather.com/grim%20reaper.jpg

[highdiver]

I just can't believe the Thai people let this happen and that they are not doing something about it now.

Trading Summary Classified by Investor Types

As of 19 Jun 2007 Unit: M.Baht

Type Buy Sell Net

Individual 9,083.49 11,118.28 -2,034.78

Dearest Mid

you dont seem to get it. if stocks are up at the end of the day and the individulas were selling...

then at the end of the day those individuals made a lot of cash.

why dont you show the other results.

Institution 2,341.49 2,091.38 250.11

Foreign 5,406.20 3,621.52 1,784.68 yes that is forigners investing over 1.5 billion baht in one day.

[highdiver]

democracy in Thailand is dead, the elections in Nov or Dec (or whenver they feel like it) will not be legitimate......enjoy your police state, those with the biggest guns and wallets will be in charge, it will be interesting to see how 16 million disenfranchised folks react given they will be poorer then they were a year ago.....good luck Thailand, you are going to need it

"Despite a pledge by the military-led government to return Thailand to democracy by December, it is increasingly clear that the country's political direction will likely be determined not by voters but by lawyers, guns and money."

. ....the army looks to be stacking the deck for polls due in December by keeping all political parties weak.

"The new government will be weak, and it has to compromise with and be subjected to the influence of the elite."

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/06/20/...cy-Derailed.php

It would seem, that it is your belief that relentless postings of negative news articles will fetch you a condominium at a greatly reduced price. I doubt that that will come to pass, but good luck to you. Hey, here's an avatar idea:

http://azraelscustomleather.com/grim%20reaper.jpg

[Mid]

you dont seem to get it.

who were the individuals selling ??

who would stand to gain from talking up a volatile market ??

what is it i don't get ?

[bingobongo]

I just can't believe the Thai people let this happen and that they are not doing something about it now.

Trading Summary Classified by Investor Types

As of 19 Jun 2007 Unit: M.Baht

Type Buy Sell Net

Individual 9,083.49 11,118.28 -2,034.78

thanks for the link Mid, this is great, it shows the locals have no confidence and are net sellers, most buyers are foreigners and institutions (who dont care about Thailand), so the SET is a pure speculative play. drive the price up until election and pull out once the junta is firmly entrenched and solidifies its power (some more)

[ThaiGoon]

virtual reality at its best....

and now for the facts as of 19:00

Thailand's military-installed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont said Wednesday it is possible to hold a fresh general election earlier than the planned schedule.

The elections are still "conditionnal". Pure propaganda. Easy for the PM to say "will" and then "could". Elections could happen on 25 november. May be.

No need to be a Constitutionalist lawyer to understand that something is wrong.

What about the new constitution ? Ah yes a referendum in august. How will vote the 16 millions people who have voted for TRT in april last year ?

And what about political parties ? No more TRT. Before 25 november, will they have time to form a new one ? If not, what's the point to have general elections with only Democrats ?

It would be the exact miror of the situation of last april !

So as you can see, nothing changed, the situation is still volatile.

It makes people feel good to imagine that all the problems are solved. Actually there aren't.

The article in IHT is very good. And it's pleasure to see that large foreign medias start to understand what is really going on in Thailand.

Oh that "propaganda" word again. The Thai gov't delayed issuing bonds because of global volatility in yields. Propaganda. All the economic indicators showed that the economy was not as bad as the doom merchants want. Propaganda. BoI reported increases in FDI. Propaganda. JETRO's latest survey shows that Thailand is still the second most attractive investment destination for Japanese firms. Propaganda. The general election could be held sooner because the referendum is apparently gonna take place earlier than first scheduled. Propaganda. :D

By the way, how could the gov't guarantee the election date when the outcome of the referendum on the new constitution is still basically unknown at this point? It only made sense to say what the PM said.

When you don't have any facts and figures to back up your argument, you say "propaganda."

[ThaiGoon]

I just can't believe the Thai people let this happen and that they are not doing something about it now.

Trading Summary Classified by Investor Types

As of 19 Jun 2007 Unit: M.Baht

Type Buy Sell Net

Individual 9,083.49 11,118.28 -2,034.78

thanks for the link Mid, this is great, it shows the locals have no confidence and are net sellers, most buyers are foreigners and institutions (who dont care about Thailand), so the SET is a pure speculative play. drive the price up until election and pull out once the junta is firmly entrenched and solidifies its power (some more)

Bingobongo, there gotta be net sellers and net buyers in any stock market. I'm sure when foreign investors are net sellers in SET, people like you will come out and say, "Look. Foreigners don't have confidence in Thai economy. They are pulling out. Blah Blah Blah" When the truth of the matter is SET index has reached a year high and will soon reach a new high for several years (dating back to a 2004's high I believe), because people are becoming more and more optimistic about Thai economy. That's the truth.

[ThaiGoon]

True enough. This is what he did in "Thai stocks" thread:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...30&start=30

Trading Summary Classified by

Investor Types

As of 14 Jun 2007 Unit: M.Baht

Type Buy Sell Net

Individual 5,524.07 5,373.67 150.41

Institution 1,429.38 1,076.94 352.44

Foreign 3,930.88 4,433.72 -502.84

Total Trading Value 10,884.33 M.Baht

and what happened to last weeks supposed support level ??

down , down , down , and the flames rose higher ................

:D