Jobless claims plunge to five-month low in sign recession may be far off

[Scott]

 

The number of new applications for unemployment benefits dropped by 16,000 to 193,000 last week, the lowest in five months, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

 

Falling jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, is a sign the economy is still adding jobs despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tighten monetary policy to slow economywide spending and bring down inflation.

The number of new claims for unemployment isn’t near where it was during most of the pandemic and has not risen to a rate that would suggest an imminent recession.

 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/jobless-claims-five-month-low

[placeholder]

If this is a recession, it's an awfully strange one. Workers who get laid off are quickly rehired

 

Laid-Off Workers Hired Quickly by Other Companies: This Labor Market Is Astonishingly Strong, Fuel for Fed Inflation Worries

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/09/29/laid-off-workers-hired-quickly-by-other-companies-this-labor-market-is-still-astonishingly-strong-fuel-for-more-inflation-worries-at-the-fed/

[KanchanaburiGuy]

Before the pandemic, Baby Boomers were retiring at an average rate of ~10,000 per day.

 

This began roughly in 2009, and explains a lot of why Mr Obama had such a winning streak of positive employment numbers.......... and why that trend continued under Mr Trump.

 

It was not policy.......... not for either one of them! It was demographics!

 

People had already put their time in........... Now it was time to clock-out!

 

------------------------

 

When people retire, that creates job openings. Their bosses weren't keeping them on the payroll out of generosity. They were still on the payroll because there was a job to do! When people retire........... those jobs still need doing!

 

Now, jobs don't get replaced on a one-for-one basis. When a more senior worker retires, people move up. More often than not, existing employees will fill those vacancies. So the job OPENINGS that wind up occuring as a result of retirement......... tend to be at the lower, less expensive end of the scale, not at the higher end.

 

(This also partly explains why average  hourly wages remain stagnant. The expensive guy retires and is replaced [ultimately] by an entry-level worker, at a much lower wage. When roughly 10,000 presumably higher paid workers retire daily and are replaced by lower wage, entry-level workers.......... well, that's going to put downward pressure on the average! lol)

 

So I wonder............

 

What impact did the pandemic have on this? I know not as many Baby Boomers were retiring in 2020/2021. They couldn't. The circumstances weren't right for it.

 

Have Baby Boomers Retirements returned to the levels they were before Covid........ Approx. 10,000 per day?

 

Here's why I ask this........

 

From 2009 until the pandemic.......... dropping unemployment claims and so-called "new job creation"........ really WEREN'T indicators of positive economic performance!

 

All that was happening was a reshuffling!

 

For example, in his tenure, Trump "created" roughly 8 million jobs. But at the same time, something like 11-12 million Baby Boomers retired!

 

Far fewer jobs were "created" during the Trump Administration....... than were "created" by Baby Boomer Retirements! Therefore........ "jobs created" during this time SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN considered a "positive economic indicator"........ but they were!

 

And they still are!

 

You can see that they still are.......... because when they're hesitant to call the first six months of negative GDP growth in 2022 "a recession".......... "strong employment numbers" are almost always the first reason they give for NOT doing so!

 

But!.......... Before we can know how valid that claim is............ we have to know if "Baby Boomer Retirements" have returned to the level they were in 2019, or close to it!

 

Because for roughly 10 years, "Baby Boomer Retirements" were the reason we had strong employment/ unemployment numbers............ NOT because of anyone's policy decisions.......... and NOT because of "strong economic performance!"

 

-------------------

 

Sorry, but we were in a recession for the first six months of 2022......... with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And we may still be in one!

 

I'm saying this because I believe that one of the major reasons the NBER isn't saying it............ simply isn't valid!

 

Our employment/jobs situation ISN'T because our economy is stronger than our negative GDP growth indicates!

 

It's because job openings are artificially being created on the back end............ by simple "Baby Boomer" demographics......... and it being time for literally millions of them to retire!

 

Cheers!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by KanchanaburiGuy

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

Before the pandemic, Baby Boomers were retiring at an average rate of ~10,000 per day.

 

This began roughly in 2009, and explains a lot of why Mr Obama had such a winning streak of positive employment numbers.......... and why that trend continued under Mr Trump.

 

It was not policy.......... not for either one of them! It was demographics!

 

People had already put their time in........... Now it was time to clock-out!

 

------------------------

 

When people retire, that creates job openings. Their bosses weren't keeping them on the payroll out of generosity. They were still on the payroll because there was a job to do! When people retire........... those jobs still need doing!

 

Now, jobs don't get replaced on a one-for-one basis. When a more senior worker retires, people move up. More often than not, existing employees will fill those vacancies. So the job OPENINGS that wind up occuring as a result of retirement......... tend to be at the lower, less expensive end of the scale, not at the higher end.

 

(This also partly explains why average  hourly wages remain stagnant. The expensive guy retires and is replaced [ultimately] by an entry-level worker, at a much lower wage. When roughly 10,000 presumably higher paid workers retire daily and are replaced by lower wage, entry-level workers.......... well, that's going to put downward pressure on the average! lol)

 

So I wonder............

 

What impact did the pandemic have on this? I know not as many Baby Boomers were retiring in 2020/2021. They couldn't. The circumstances weren't right for it.

 

Have Baby Boomers Retirements returned to the levels they were before Covid........ Approx. 10,000 per day?

 

Here's why I ask this........

 

From 2009 until the pandemic.......... dropping unemployment claims and so-called "new job creation"........ really WEREN'T indicators of positive economic performance!

 

All that was happening was a reshuffling!

 

For example, in his tenure, Trump "created" roughly 8 million jobs. But at the same time, something like 11-12 million Baby Boomers retired!

 

Far fewer jobs were "created" during the Trump Administration....... than were "created" by Baby Boomer retirements! Therefore........ "jobs created" during this time SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED a "positive economic indicator"........ but they were!

 

And they still are!

 

And you can see that they still are.......... because when they're hesitant to call the first six months of negative GDP growth in 2022 "a recession".......... "strong employment numbers" are almost always the first reason they give for NOT doing so!

 

But!.......... Before we can know how valid that claim is............ we have to know if "Baby Boomer Retirements" have returned to the level they were in 2019, or close to it!

 

Because for roughly 10 years, "Baby Boomer Retirements" were the reason we had strong employment/ unemployment numbers............ NOT because of anyone's policy decisions.......... and NOT because of "strong economic performance!"

 

-------------------

 

Sorry, but we were in a recession for the first six months of 2022......... with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And we may still be in one!

 

I'm saying this because I believe that one of the major reasons the NBER isn't saying it............ simply isn't valid!

 

Our employment/jobs situation ISN'T because our economy is stronger than our negative GDP growth indicates!

 

It's because job openings are artificially being created on the back end............ by simple "Baby Boomer" demographics......... and it being time for literally millions of them to retire!

 

Cheers!

 

 

 

No new net jobs created?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/191750/civilian-labor-force-in-the-us-since-1990/

 

What's your source for your claims?

 

As for wages decreasing...

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/02/are-wages-increasing-or-decreasing/?utm_source=series_page&utm_medium=related_content&utm_term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog

[candide]

13 minutes ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

Before the pandemic, Baby Boomers were retiring at an average rate of ~10,000 per day.

 

This began roughly in 2009, and explains a lot of why Mr Obama had such a winning streak of positive employment numbers.......... and why that trend continued under Mr Trump.

 

It was not policy.......... not for either one of them! It was demographics!

 

People had already put their time in........... Now it was time to clock-out!

 

------------------------

 

When people retire, that creates job openings. Their bosses weren't keeping them on the payroll out of generosity. They were still on the payroll because there was a job to do! When people retire........... those jobs still need doing!

 

Now, jobs don't get replaced on a one-for-one basis. When a more senior worker retires, people move up. More often than not, existing employees will fill those vacancies. So the job OPENINGS that wind up occuring as a result of retirement......... tend to be at the lower, less expensive end of the scale, not at the higher end.

 

(This also partly explains why average  hourly wages remain stagnant. The expensive guy retires and is replaced [ultimately] by an entry-level worker, at a much lower wage. When roughly 10,000 presumably higher paid workers retire daily and are replaced by lower wage, entry-level workers.......... well, that's going to put downward pressure on the average! lol)

 

So I wonder............

 

What impact did the pandemic have on this? I know not as many Baby Boomers were retiring in 2020/2021. They couldn't. The circumstances weren't right for it.

 

Have Baby Boomers Retirements returned to the levels they were before Covid........ Approx. 10,000 per day?

 

Here's why I ask this........

 

From 2009 until the pandemic.......... dropping unemployment claims and so-called "new job creation"........ really WEREN'T indicators of positive economic performance!

 

All that was happening was a reshuffling!

 

For example, in his tenure, Trump "created" roughly 8 million jobs. But at the same time, something like 11-12 million Baby Boomers retired!

 

Far fewer jobs were "created" during the Trump Administration....... than were "created" by Baby Boomer Retirements! Therefore........ "jobs created" during this time SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN considered a "positive economic indicator"........ but they were!

 

And they still are!

 

You can see that they still are.......... because when they're hesitant to call the first six months of negative GDP growth in 2022 "a recession".......... "strong employment numbers" are almost always the first reason they give for NOT doing so!

 

But!.......... Before we can know how valid that claim is............ we have to know if "Baby Boomer Retirements" have returned to the level they were in 2019, or close to it!

 

Because for roughly 10 years, "Baby Boomer Retirements" were the reason we had strong employment/ unemployment numbers............ NOT because of anyone's policy decisions.......... and NOT because of "strong economic performance!"

 

-------------------

 

Sorry, but we were in a recession for the first six months of 2022......... with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And we may still be in one!

 

I'm saying this because I believe that one of the major reasons the NBER isn't saying it............ simply isn't valid!

 

Our employment/jobs situation ISN'T because our economy is stronger than our negative GDP growth indicates!

 

It's because job openings are artificially being created on the back end............ by simple "Baby Boomer" demographics......... and it being time for literally millions of them to retire!

 

Cheers!

 

 

 

 

 

If you want to make this argument properly, you need to deduce the number of new people on the job market from the number of retiring people

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, candide said:

If you want to make this argument properly, you need to deduce the number of new people on the job market from the number of retiring people

As the figures I cited show, there were more people working despite the retirements of baby boomers until the covid pandemic hit.

New data shows long Covid is keeping as many as 4 million people out of work

https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/

 

And the numbers are climbing again.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/209123/seasonally-adjusted-monthly-number-of-employees-in-the-us/

[KanchanaburiGuy]

32 minutes ago, placeholder said:

As the figures I cited show, there were more people working despite the retirements of baby boomers until the covid pandemic hit.

New data shows long Covid is keeping as many as 4 million people out of work

https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/

 

And the numbers are climbing again.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/209123/seasonally-adjusted-monthly-number-of-employees-in-the-us/

Yes, looking at the blue bar graph that shows U.S. employment numbers for 1990 to 2021............... (I found this by clicking on the graphic and arrowing back two screens).......... we learn this..........

 

From 2008 to 2019, it appears there was an increase in jobs held by roughly 8 million------ from about 155 million to 163 million (with that "155 million" having stayed at that level for 5 or 6 years, I guess. "Baby Boomer Retirements" began in earnest in 2009.)

 

 

 

That seems good until you realize.........

 

The population of the United States grew in that same timeframe from 304 million to 328 million------ an increase of 24 million. (Our population typically grows by about 3 million per year, at current levels. [Less when it was smaller, of course.])

 

 

 

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by KanchanaburiGuy

[placeholder]

22 minutes ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

Yes, looking at the blue bar graph that shows U.S. employment numbers for 1990 to 2021............... (I found this by clicking on the graphic and arrowing back two screens).......... we learn this..........

 

From 2008 to 2019, it appears there was an increase in jobs held by roughly 8 million------ from about 155 million to 163 million (with that "155 million" having stayed at that level for 5 or 6 years, I guess. "Baby Boomer Retirements" began in earnest in 2009.)

 

 

 

That seems good until you realize.........

 

The population of the United States grew in that same timeframe from 304 million to 328 million------ an increase of 24 million. (Our population typically grows by about 3 million per year, at current levels. [Less when it was smaller, of course.])

 

And you didn't address my challenge to your clam about falling wages.

 

 

What you haven't accounted for is how many baby boomers have actually retired. About 25.4 million baby boomers reported themselves as being retired from 2012 to the  the 3rd quarter of 2019.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/09/the-pace-of-boomer-retirements-has-accelerated-in-the-past-year/

 There were about 21 million more people in the us in 2019 than in 2009.

So even if yousubtract 25.4 million (the number retired from 2012 onward) from the total US population in 2019, you'll come up with a number that's actually lower than in 2009. So not only were those jobs job numbers matched by the rising generation, they were actually exceeded by 8 million despite a smaller population base.

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by placeholder

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

What you haven't accounted for is how many baby boomers have actually retired. About 25.4 million baby boomers reported themselves as being retired from 2012 to the  the 3rd quarter of 2019.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/11/09/the-pace-of-boomer-retirements-has-accelerated-in-the-past-year/

 There were about 21 million more people in the us in 2019 than in 2009.

So even if yousubtract 25.4 million (the number retired from 2012 onward) from the total US population in 2019, you'll come up with a number that's actually lower than in 2009. So not only were those jobs job numbers matched by the rising generation, they were actually exceeded by 8 million despite a smaller population base.

 

I just realized that there's a big problelm with my analysis. I didn't add in the rising generation of those who were entering the work force as the boomers were retiring. So it's not valid. And my life may be barren, but not so devoid of interest that I'm going to try and figure that one out.