New Political Party Ready To Launch

[sriracha john]

Someone that won't be joining in with the on-going local MP registration....

Sonthi says no to politics

Deputy Prime Minister Sonthi Boonyaratglin ruled out his political career on Monday by saying he wanted to devote time to enjoy life playing soccer, tennis and golf after the December 23 election.

"I will not enter politics," he said, adding he has never had any political ambitions.

- The Nation

[sriracha john]

Couldn't get a more ridiculously funnier photo if Tony Clifton himself had manufactured it:

Kom Chad Luek newspaper

People Power candidate wears Thaksin's mask to apply

Chiang Mai - People Power's candidate Surapong Towichakchaikul stunned other candidates by wearing the face mask depicting former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to register his application.

Surapong said he was accompanied by Thaksin to apply.

Chat Thai's candidate Charinrat Phutpuan became the first candidate to apply in Chiang Mai.

The candidate registration in Chiang Mai is carried out at the Chiang Mai Municipality Stadium.

- The Nation

========================================

Seems like in lieu of their requirement for a criminal past history, People Power Party will also accept candidates with mental health issues just as readily.

Edited November 12, 2007 by sriracha john

[John K]

Nothing at all like taunting the EC to the PPP and not let them run. I wonder if this is a form of Russian roulette except only one chamber is empty.

[sriracha john]

People Power Denies Banned Thai Rak Thai Executives Helping Party

The Election Commission has set up a committee to investigate whether the banned 111 executives of the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai Party should be allowed to engage in political activities.

The Election Commission (EC) Secretary-General Sutthipol Taweechaiyakarn says the current political activities of the banned 111 executives of the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai Party will be probed by a committee, set up by the EC and headed by former Constitution Drafting Assembly Speaker Noranit Sethabutr.

The committee will have to decide whether their movements are legal. In the meantime, political parties are asked to strictly abide by the election law in their campaigning.

One of the banned Thai Rak Thai executives Sudarat Keyurapan denies taking part in activities of the People Power Party. Her name was earlier mentioned as being involved in selecting MP candidates for the People Power Party to contest in Bangkok.

Sudarat pleads for the public to understand that her political ban doesn't limit her right as a Thai citizen.

Meanwhile, leader of the People Power Party Samak Sundaravej voices his opposition against the Constitution for allowing MPs to vote against their own party's resolution, saying this will destroy political parties.

Samak also commented on the probe into the involvement of banned Thai Rak Thai executives in his party's activities, questioning why the Pue Pandin and the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana parties are not also being probed as banned Thai Rak Thai executives are working prominently with them.

He insists he will not go on any stage to debate with any other political party leaders and sarcastically thanks the Thai Journalists Association for opposing his party and thus putting it in the news.

In the meantime, party list MP candidate of the People Power Party Chalerm Yoobamroong confirmed that banned Thai Rak Thai executives were not involved in the party's selection of MP candidates.

- Thailand Outlook

[John K]

I guess Samak is hard wired to Thaksin and not wanting to face the truth (that will set you free) or answer questions that have some meat in them. I still would love to see 18 podiums on stage and all the parties represented. It sounds like the PPP/TRT podium will be unoccupied.

[sriracha john]

People Power Denies Banned Thai Rak Thai Executives Helping Party

One of the banned Thai Rak Thai executives Sudarat Keyurapan denies taking part in activities of the People Power Party.

...and on the same day as her denial....

Sudarat Keyuraphan, one of the former Thai Rak Thai Party executives who are stripped of their electoral rights, speaks to supporters of the People Power Party on Monday.

The Nation

==============================================================================

Election Commission (EC) Secretary-General Suthiphon Thaveechaiygarn said that the 111 former Thai Rak Thai executives, now under a five-year ban from politics, should keep a low profile by not publicly getting involved in political activities, given that it is still not entirely clear which aspects they are allowed to take part in. The 111 executives of the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai party have been banned from certain political activities under the verdict handed down by the Constitution Tribunal on May 30, which found their party guilty of election fraud last year. "This is still unclear," Suthiphon admitted, adding that the verdict still leaves room for interpretation over the scope of political activities. He said the EC had asked its adviser Noranit Settabutr to lead a team of legal experts to consider an appropriate solution later this month and forward it to the EC for it to make a final decision. The need to clarify the verdict has caught the public's attention after two former TRT executives, Sudarat Keyuraphan and Newin Chidchob, became involved in the selection of election candidates under the party-list system.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/13Nov2007_news08.php

[sriracha john]

Sudarat believes Bangkokians still trust in People Power

Sudarat Keyuraphan, the People Power Party member and Thai Rak Thai Party former leader, traveled to the Thai-Japanese Din Daeng Stadium November 12th to give her support to her party members.

Sudarat insists that there are no conflicts within the People Power Party, and if there is a problem, the party members will help solve it like brothers and sisters. She affirms that all party members are still united.

She also expresses confidence that the People Power Party will win the polls in Bangkok.

- ThaiNews

[John K]

I think the court ruling was very clear and that is to find other work for the next five years. They would not be involved in politics at this or any level if there was not some personal gain. They are simply employees who have been fired but still turn up for work everyday.

What appears to be going on is almost exactly the same thing that got them banned in the first place, and it should not take the EC long to see that. What the EC seem stuck on is the letter vs the spirit of the ruling.

True to form the PPP/TRT will push the limits showing their arrogance, and if they are ruled against they will simply cry “it’s not fair” all over again.

[Old Man River]

To answer you directly proof I do not have. However I do have a gut feeling based on the repeated and demonstrated nature of the PPP/TRT. They have not demonstrated any superior cognitive abilities to razzle dazzle their way into power, but they have repeatedly shown they are not afraid to draw blood to get their way. That gut feeling says that if they lose there is better than a 50% chance they will resort to this tactic.

So, basically, after stating it as a fact you really have nothing, other than your personal gut feeling.

I Guess it is time to take a quote from Sherlock Holmes, ‘Once you eliminate everything what is left is what you are looking for.’

The only group that had motive to destabilize the government was TRT. It would not be the terrorists in the south because they don’t want to destabilize the government, they want to kill it.

All the other little bombs along the way were all political statements.

There are a lot of much better analysts than you who have come up with different conclusions. Plus is right, we don't know and won't know. Hence my asking you for proof when you make a statement of fact instead of saying it is your personal opinion based on your personal gut feel.

[John K]

To answer you directly proof I do not have. However I do have a gut feeling based on the repeated and demonstrated nature of the PPP/TRT. They have not demonstrated any superior cognitive abilities to razzle dazzle their way into power, but they have repeatedly shown they are not afraid to draw blood to get their way. That gut feeling says that if they lose there is better than a 50% chance they will resort to this tactic.

So, basically, after stating it as a fact you really have nothing, other than your personal gut feeling.

I Guess it is time to take a quote from Sherlock Holmes, ‘Once you eliminate everything what is left is what you are looking for.’

The only group that had motive to destabilize the government was TRT. It would not be the terrorists in the south because they don’t want to destabilize the government, they want to kill it.

All the other little bombs along the way were all political statements.

There are a lot of much better analysts than you who have come up with different conclusions. Plus is right, we don't know and won't know. Hence my asking you for proof when you make a statement of fact instead of saying it is your personal opinion based on your personal gut feel.

Actually if you look back and reread, no place did I say they did it in this discussion we are having. However I let the implication stand to see where it would go. I am totally talking future tense here. I am seeing enough parallels that there is a chance there will be another bombing if the PPP/TRT lose. How many times have you heard of someone in a fit of rage pull the trigger killing someone.

They have been trying to get back in power from September 20, 2006. Eight month later they were banned, but they are still at it using many of the same methods that got them banned in the first place. I find it hard to believe they will just quietly conceded and walk away. They are going to want to vent their anger.

[younghusband]

To answer you directly proof I do not have. However I do have a gut feeling based on the repeated and demonstrated nature of the PPP/TRT. They have not demonstrated any superior cognitive abilities to razzle dazzle their way into power, but they have repeatedly shown they are not afraid to draw blood to get their way. That gut feeling says that if they lose there is better than a 50% chance they will resort to this tactic.

So, basically, after stating it as a fact you really have nothing, other than your personal gut feeling.

I Guess it is time to take a quote from Sherlock Holmes, ‘Once you eliminate everything what is left is what you are looking for.’

The only group that had motive to destabilize the government was TRT. It would not be the terrorists in the south because they don’t want to destabilize the government, they want to kill it.

All the other little bombs along the way were all political statements.

There are a lot of much better analysts than you who have come up with different conclusions. Plus is right, we don't know and won't know. Hence my asking you for proof when you make a statement of fact instead of saying it is your personal opinion based on your personal gut feel.

I would also endorse Plus's conclusions though most serious analysts tend to rule out direct TRT involvement on the cui bono principle.As most educated people know, terrorist outrages tend to rally support for a government not destabilise it, although I agree that the popular reaction can be unpredictable if the government concerned -whether Spanish or Thai - lies to its own people about the extent of its knowledge.My informed asumption is that disaffected military/police groups were responsible but I suspect we will never get to the bottom of this.Oddly enough in what was a bungled investigation,sullied by political interference, such evidence as exists does seem to indicate a Southern dimension but I still remain sceptical about this.For those interested there is some relevant discussion (as opposed to embarassingly facile and ignorant "hunches" ) of the issues over at Bangkok Pundit although not particularly recent.

[Old Man River]

To answer you directly proof I do not have. However I do have a gut feeling based on the repeated and demonstrated nature of the PPP/TRT. They have not demonstrated any superior cognitive abilities to razzle dazzle their way into power, but they have repeatedly shown they are not afraid to draw blood to get their way. That gut feeling says that if they lose there is better than a 50% chance they will resort to this tactic.

So, basically, after stating it as a fact you really have nothing, other than your personal gut feeling.

I Guess it is time to take a quote from Sherlock Holmes, ‘Once you eliminate everything what is left is what you are looking for.’

The only group that had motive to destabilize the government was TRT. It would not be the terrorists in the south because they don’t want to destabilize the government, they want to kill it.

All the other little bombs along the way were all political statements.

There are a lot of much better analysts than you who have come up with different conclusions. Plus is right, we don't know and won't know. Hence my asking you for proof when you make a statement of fact instead of saying it is your personal opinion based on your personal gut feel.

I would also endorse Plus's conclusions though most serious analysts tend to rule out direct TRT involvement on the cui bono principle.As most educated people know, terrorist outrages tend to rally support for a government not destabilise it, although I agree that the popular reaction can be unpredictable if the government concerned -whether Spanish or Thai - lies to its own people about the extent of its knowledge.My informed asumption is that disaffected military/police groups were responsible but I suspect we will never get to the bottom of this.Oddly enough in what was a bungled investigation,sullied by political interference, such evidence as exists does seem to indicate a Southern dimension but I still remain sceptical about this.For those interested there is some relevant discussion (as opposed to embarassingly facile and ignorant "hunches" ) of the issues over at Bangkok Pundit although not particularly recent.

Actually, when I mentioned "there are a lot of much better analysts...", coincidentally it was Bangkok Pundit that I had in mind as he very early on pointed towards the south, but as you know there are others who have spent a lot of time and effort analyzing these events with varying conclusions.

[hammered]

Nothing at all like taunting the EC to the PPP and not let them run. I wonder if this is a form of Russian roulette except only one chamber is empty.

There is one school of thought that goes PPP's aim is to discredit the elections which they will not be able to win. If they can be discredited it will be harder for any incoming govermnet to claim a mandate to continue prosecuting Thaksin. One way of discrediting the vote would be for the PPP to get itself banned or disolved before the vote and claim politcal manipulation. If one wants to be cynical one could already argue that they are pushing the envelope in their actions. The reason people who argue this claim they will not be able to win is because a significant proportion of their ex-MPs have deserted and wuith them go the tied rural voters. With no win discrediting the elections is the only effective tactic left.

Is this what is happening? Who knows, but it is not beyond the realms of possibilty although I would tend more to the PPP trying to win with a bit of a fallback on discrediting the vote if they dont.

[hammered]

To answer you directly proof I do not have. However I do have a gut feeling based on the repeated and demonstrated nature of the PPP/TRT. They have not demonstrated any superior cognitive abilities to razzle dazzle their way into power, but they have repeatedly shown they are not afraid to draw blood to get their way. That gut feeling says that if they lose there is better than a 50% chance they will resort to this tactic.

So, basically, after stating it as a fact you really have nothing, other than your personal gut feeling.

I Guess it is time to take a quote from Sherlock Holmes, ‘Once you eliminate everything what is left is what you are looking for.’

The only group that had motive to destabilize the government was TRT. It would not be the terrorists in the south because they don’t want to destabilize the government, they want to kill it.

All the other little bombs along the way were all political statements.

There are a lot of much better analysts than you who have come up with different conclusions. Plus is right, we don't know and won't know. Hence my asking you for proof when you make a statement of fact instead of saying it is your personal opinion based on your personal gut feel.

I would also endorse Plus's conclusions though most serious analysts tend to rule out direct TRT involvement on the cui bono principle.As most educated people know, terrorist outrages tend to rally support for a government not destabilise it, although I agree that the popular reaction can be unpredictable if the government concerned -whether Spanish or Thai - lies to its own people about the extent of its knowledge.My informed asumption is that disaffected military/police groups were responsible but I suspect we will never get to the bottom of this.Oddly enough in what was a bungled investigation,sullied by political interference, such evidence as exists does seem to indicate a Southern dimension but I still remain sceptical about this.For those interested there is some relevant discussion (as opposed to embarassingly facile and ignorant "hunches" ) of the issues over at Bangkok Pundit although not particularly recent.

Actually, when I mentioned "there are a lot of much better analysts...", coincidentally it was Bangkok Pundit that I had in mind as he very early on pointed towards the south, but as you know there are others who have spent a lot of time and effort analyzing these events with varying conclusions.

If you know anyone senior in the police well enough this topic is worth a conversation. There are more publically stated red herrings than at first sight.

[sriracha john]

Pua Paendin Party boast to win 60 MPs

Pua Paendin (For the Motherland) Party leader Suwit Khunkitti yesterday vowed to win more than 60 seats in Parliament and promised to implement nine policies to bring happiness and well-being to the people.

The policies are aimed at making people healthy, knowledgeable, prosperous, creating a good family, civil society, pleasant environment, enjoying high-priced produce, and developing the country with sound integrity and solidarity.

Suwit was speaking at the party's first annual caucus at Impact Muang Thong Thani, which attracted 10,000 members and party leaders such as Surakiart Sathirathai (TRT Banned #21), Pinij Charusombat (TRT Banned #11), Suchart Tancharoen (TRT Banned #20), and Preecha Laohapongchana (TRT Banned #68).

The party appointed Vatana Asavahame (a successful businessman who the United States says is linked to the international drug trade/also charged with involvement in corruption surrounding the Klong Dan wastewater treatment project) as the Party Chairman, and Police General Pracha Promnok as party chief adviser. Vatana introduced his two sons, Chonsawat (In addition to charges of refusing to take a breath test for alcohol and illegally detaining a police officer, police will now send a second warrant to hear the new charges, which now total eight) and Poolpol as Samut Prakan MP candidates.

I see Pua Paendin Party's Chairman has fully implemented his party's stated policy of "developing the country with sound integrity" ....

Vattana fails to show up for Klong Dan case

It was a no-show for Vattana Asavahame's first trial date on the Klong Dan wastewater treatment project in Samut Prakan Province on Tuesday. Former Deputy Interior Minister Vattana was accused of malpractice in the corruption-plagued Klong Dan project, where it is believed he colluded with eight land officials to issue fake land deeds for the site of the project between 1992 and 1993. He had been summoned by the Supreme Court to attend a first hearing in the morning, but judges were told by his lawyer that Vattana was unable to attend due to an illness. The hearing was rescheduled for

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=123124

Former Deputy Interior Minister Asks Court to Postpone Corruption Case

The Supreme Court postponed the hearing on a corruption case against a former Deputy Interior Minister, to November 13 after his lawyer presented a medical certificate of his illness.

The Supreme Court's division for cases against political post holders held its first hearing into the charge of malfeasance against former Deputy Interior Minister Vattana Asavahame on Tuesday after the National Counter Corruption Commission and the Attorney-General agreed to launch an indictment against him for being involved in the overpriced land purchase for a government wastewater treatment project in Klong Dan area of Samut Prakarn province.

Vattana's lawyer submitted a request for the postponement of the hearing, claiming the former Deputy Interior Minister needs to be hospitalized for 4-5 days as he is sick with heart disease and fever.

The lawyer also presented a medical certificate from Bumrungrat hospital to prove the claim to the court. The court therefore decides to postpone the first hearing into the case to November 13 and instructed the lawyer of the accused that if his client fails to be present at that hearing due to his illness, the doctor responsible for his treatment must be present in court at that time to confirm the defendant is really sick.

Vattana is now an executive of the For Mother Land Party [Pua Paendin Party] and participated in the party's activities over the past one month before being admitted to the hospital on Monday.

- Thailand Outlook

===========================================

Too bad the courts didn't utilize that highlighted stipulation for Pojaman's Singaporean doctor or Suriya's American doctor when they used similar excuses several times during their cases.

UPDATE

Vattana expected in court for Klong Dan hearing

The Supreme Court is expecting Vattana Asavahame to show up for his first trial on the Klong Dan wastewater treatment project in Samut Prakan province on Tuesday morning after already rescheduling the hearing once. The former Deputy Interior Minister was accused of malpractice in the corruption plagued Klong Dan project, where it is believed he colluded with eight land officials to issue fake land deeds for the site of the project between 1992 and 1993. The Supreme Court summoned him for a hearing in October, but he cited a serious illness which prevented him from appearing before the court. It will be up to the Supreme Court to decide whether to allow another delay if Vattana cited an illness as being the reason for not being able

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=123532

[Plus]

If I remember correctly BkkPundit pointed to the South based on his own political opinion rather than on available evidence at that time. He often does that.

If that is indeed the case, he was lucky.

However, after almost a year passed without incidents, it's clear that those bombing were certainly not a case of Southern violence spillover as Bkkpundit thought.

Whoever was behind it was probably appalled at the scale of destruction and subsequent public reaction and froze the program indefinitely.

[John K]

To refresh some memories here and I know I may have forgotten some of the particular so just fill in the blanks from your memory. First you need to look at all the bombings as just one can not reveal a pattern.

The first set of bombs on New Years eve were rather big, people got killed and all sides were angry with a huge fallout that had a negative effect on all Thais associated with tourist income at the height of tourist season. If it were terrorist the future bombs would be the same size or bigger. That was not the case. The bombs that followed were actually smaller and in places mostly away from people. That certainly would discredit the south theory where the exact opposite would occur with bigger bombs in high people traffic areas. Also some of the dates of the bombs with the most recent being within hours of when Sonthi was to step down. Also the location of that bomb needs to be considered. That was a personal message from Sonthi’s favorite foes that they are still there after he goes.

In short every bomb can be tied to politics but not every bomb can be tied to other theories. Considering that only the TRT was angry and all other political parties seemed to benefit more or less from the coup’s removal of the TRT’s monopoly on power, that simply suggests the TRT were involved in the bombings as they were the only ones with motive. So as per the Sherlock Holmes process of elimination the only card left is TRT and or more specifically Thaksin.

[younghusband]

If I remember correctly BkkPundit pointed to the South based on his own political opinion rather than on available evidence at that time. He often does that.

If that is indeed the case, he was lucky.

However, after almost a year passed without incidents, it's clear that those bombing were certainly not a case of Southern violence spillover as Bkkpundit thought.

Whoever was behind it was probably appalled at the scale of destruction and subsequent public reaction and froze the program indefinitely.

I'm not entirely sure what Bangkok Pundit's political orientation is but I suppose a fairly standard Western liberalism.To be fair, he does quote a very large number of sources on his site which I have found a useful base for further reading and research.But as always in assessing political issues, not just in Thailand, it's important not to depend on a few sources and equally to have the analytical intelligence to be able process information without being swamped by pre-conceived opinions.On the Bangkok bombing issue I seem to recall Bangkok Pundit quoted some forensic evidence, such as arming devices, which echoed methods followed in the South.There was also the slightly comic suggestion from military sources - desparate to implicate Thaksin- that it couldn't be the work of Southerners because these guys couldn't find their way around in the big smoke.

But as I say the Southern dimension never really made much sense to me, not least in terms of the episode's timing.When the South's woes come to Bangkok, and I fervently hope they never do, I fear they will be manifested in a much more horrific way.

Otherwise I tend to agre with your comments.I hadn't thought of the point about a belated appreciation by the instigators of the folly of their approach, but it rings true.

Edited November 13, 2007 by younghusband

[hammered]

If I remember correctly BkkPundit pointed to the South based on his own political opinion rather than on available evidence at that time. He often does that.

If that is indeed the case, he was lucky.

However, after almost a year passed without incidents, it's clear that those bombing were certainly not a case of Southern violence spillover as Bkkpundit thought.

Whoever was behind it was probably appalled at the scale of destruction and subsequent public reaction and froze the program indefinitely.

BKK Pundit is noticeably bias in favour of the Thaksinistas. I think he even admitted it once and made a new years resolution to try and change.

There has never been a politcal bombing in Thailand that has ever been solved although I think it fair to say there has never been a politcal bombing in which those it was aimed at have not known the message and who sent it. Sadly unless being part of an inner power clique us mere mortals are left to speculate and one persons theory is as valid or invalid as the nexts. The little bits i have heard from the very few informed sources i know would indicate that the common theories are not the accurate ones, but truth is we will never know.

[hammered]

If I remember correctly BkkPundit pointed to the South based on his own political opinion rather than on available evidence at that time. He often does that.

If that is indeed the case, he was lucky.

However, after almost a year passed without incidents, it's clear that those bombing were certainly not a case of Southern violence spillover as Bkkpundit thought.

Whoever was behind it was probably appalled at the scale of destruction and subsequent public reaction and froze the program indefinitely.

I'm not entirely sure what Bangkok Pundit's political orientation is but I suppose a fairly standard Western liberalism.To be fair, he does quote a very large number of sources on his site which I have found a useful base for further reading and research.But as always in assessing political issues, not just in Thailand, it's important not to depend on a few sources and equally to have the analytical intelligence to be able process information without being swamped by pre-conceived opinions.On the Bangkok bombing issue I seem to recall Bangkok Pundit quoted some forensic evidence, such as arming devices, which echoed methods followed in the South.There was also the slightly comic suggestion from military sources - desparate to implicate Thaksin- that it couldn't be the work of Southerners because these guys couldn't find their way around in the big smoke.

But as I say the Southern dimension never really made much sense to me, not least in terms of the episode's timing.When the South's woes come to Bangkok, and I fervently hope they never do, I fear they will be manifested in a much more horrific way.

Otherwise I tend to agre with your comments.I hadn't thought of the point about a belated appreciation by the instigators of the folly of their approach, but it rings true.

Thailands leading and interantionally respected forensic scientist ruled out the southern connection based on materials used although there was a statement that the device had possibly been made to look that way but with th ewrong specific stuff. Ther eis admittedly a divide between Thailands leading forensic scientist and and some others who work more directly for the police. As to who one wants to trust one must make ones own choice.

I too would tend to go with the belated appreciation having some effect on the planters. However, there was also an interesting political accomodation made around the time of the New Years bombings and the subsequent hoaxes in early days of January.

As to Bangkok Pundits politics it is quite open. I think he may be the only person to ever try to claim the number of drug war dead was less than the number that we hear reported by NGOs. As such western liberalism may not be the best descrription of the politics. Then again we all hold our own politcal bias and maybe there is noone who is truly liberal. However, what Bangkok Pundit wishes to write on his blog or what politcal spin he wishes to put on it is his business, and admittedly it is quite an interesting read even allowing for the bias and certainly he puts one hel_l of a lot of work into doing his stuff. There seem to be a number of independent blogs developing around Thai politcs now, which is a good thing and some of them are written in good English by Thai writers.

[sriracha john]

Looks like the Pua Paendin (For the Motherland) Party Chairman showed up afterall...and points to Thaksin as a cause of his charges...

Vatana pleads not guilty

Former Deputy Interior Minister Vatana Asavahame Tuesday pleaded not guilty to corruption charges related to his involvement in land speculation in connection with the construction of a waste treatment plant in Samut Prakan.

"I am innocent and my case is a frame-up done by the man who has been punished by his bad karma to live in exile," he said in reference to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Vatana spoke following his arraignment hearing at the Supreme Court's Criminal Tribunal for Political Office Holders.

Public prosecutors contend that Vatana was involved in a scam to inflate land prices before selling the plots for the waste treatment construction. The alleged wrongdoing happened when he held office in charge of supervising the Land Department.

- The Nation

Edited November 13, 2007 by sriracha john

[sriracha john]

Media ruffled by Samak's antics

The People Power Party leader must not be allowed to manipulate the press to create divisiveness

Members of the mass media should not be fooled by People Power Party Leader, Samak Sundraravej. Throughout his long political career, the veteran politician has always been a formidable spin master who knows how to manipulate the press. Indeed, since a young age he has used his second career in journalism to burnish his reputation as a tough-talking politician. When he spoke out aggressively against the media during a press conference last week, he did it deliberately. Deep down, he wants to portray himself as a victim of the media's bias and discrimination, or worse - as the victim of a conspiracy.

Samak hopes to gain a sympathy vote from the public, and he has nothing to lose by doing so. As the election campaign gets into full swing, it will not be surprising to see Samak resorting to his same old antics to try to antagonize the media. The angrier the media gets against him, the more sympathy he will receive from people, particularly the gullible and poorly educated. And that is exactly what he wants.

Then he will proceed to incite divisiveness, particularly between the rural masses and the urban middle-class. After all, he once succeeded in mobilizing right-wing mobs by creating a communist scare, which lead to political turmoil and a military coup in 1976. For this, he was rewarded with the post of Interior Minister.

During his brief stint as Interior Minister he cracked down on the press and temporarily shut down this newspaper for making critical comments against the military government. Those who are old enough to recall those horrible days know and understand Samak's motives all too well. Newspapers can say whatever they want about him; he does not care because he knows he has very little chance of winning in Bangkok anyway. Members of the urban middle-class are too smart for Samak to manipulate. But he has apparently set his eye on the rural population, which he knows can be persuaded with his style of pedagogy.

Samak has already made claims that members of the media are after him because he speaks the truth as it is. Furthermore, the fact that he is behaving so outrageously should also be put in proper context. Let's not forget Samak has admitted that he is serving as the proxy of his political master, the deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who must be watching Samak's performance carefully from his self-imposed exile in London. At the moment, Samak is still useful to Thaksin, doing his bidding by trying to win the December 23 election, wooing millions of Thaksin's loyal supporters in the North and Northeast. If the People Power Party is a big winner in the election, the possibility of Thaksin staging a political comeback cannot be ruled out. Indeed, Samak may turn out to be an agent provocateur Thaksin has thrown into the political arena to disrupt an unsuspecting and still divided society.

The public must not lose sight of the fact Thaksin continues to pull strings from behind the scenes, and that Samak may well turn out to be a puppet. So far, it is clear that Samak is not really in control of the party he leads. Indeed Thaksin's trusted lieutenants, including some of the 111 executives of the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai Party who have been barred from political activity for five years, wield considerable influence in the People Power Party.

Samak, as the People Power Leader, is reportedly powerless to deal with factional infighting within the party. But the public must not underestimate his manipulative skill in getting what he wants. Interestingly, Samak has turned down invitations to speak in political forums and has refused to engage other party leaders in televised debate. But even as he behaves so badly, there should be no attempt to boycott either him or the party he leads. That is because Samak is a public figure and the People Power Party is a public institution. It is in the public interest to report on what they say and do. However, extra caution must be exercised by news outlets to make sure they are not being manipulated into serving Samak's underhanded tactics, which are to exacerbate divisiveness among the people of this country.

- The Nation Editorial

============================================

Well said....

[sriracha john]

An analysis of the Party-list MP's chances... zone by zone...

Pro-Thaksin vote unlikely to help PPP

Things will not be the same this year for the once popular but now defunct Thai Rak Thai Party, which has now transformed into the People Power Party (PPP). Its chances of winning by a landslide are very slim.

While PPP might win most seats of party-list MPs, the number of MP seats it would get in December would be a lot less compared to previous elections. Thai Rak Thai won 67 of the 100 party-list MP seats in the 2005 election.

In this year’s election, the party-list vote covers 80 House seats in eight zones. There are 10 seats up for grabs in each zone and it is estimated that PPP will get less than 40.

The Democrat Party will probably finish in second place.

Here are the reasons why PPP’s chances to win by a landslide are slim:

Firstly, the new election system is different because votes will not be calculated according to a nationwide count, but will instead be counted on a the basis of eight zones, each of which has 10 party-list MPs.

Secondly, some former Thai Rak Thai MPs have joined other parties such as Puea Paendin, Matchima Thipataya, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Chart Thai. This means their popularity would not ensure votes for one single party.

Thirdly, PPP’s popularity is not at as great as it was during former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s reign.

Fourthly, the calculation of votes for party-list MPs will benefit small parties because they will be given the chance to win a seat even if their votes are below average, which will clearly put PPP at a disadvantage.

Based on a voter turnout of 60 to 65 per cent, it is estimated that around 350,000 to 400,000 votes would win a party-list seat.

Here is an analysis on how big political groups like the Democrats and People Power are going to fare in the December 23 election, and the chances of smaller and new parties have in winning seats in the proportional vote:

Zone 1: Thaksin’s allies face tough battle

In the 2005 elections, Thai Rak Thai won with 70 per cent and the Democrats got 20 per cent. The rest of the votes went to other parties. However, things are different this year. For instance, this year votes in Sukhothai would belong to Matchima Thipataya led by banned Thai Rak Thai executive member Somsak Thepsuthin.

So, PPP is estimated to win with 60 per cent or six seats out of 10.

PPP candidates in this zone are led by Thaksin’s close aide Yongyuth Tiyapairat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat and former MPs Sompong Amornwiwat, Karn Thienkaew, Samphan Lertnuwat and Thavorn Treeratnanarong.

Two seats should belong to the Democrats, which is led by Therdpong Chaiyanan and Samart Ratchpolsit, while Somsak’s wife and Secretary-General of the Matchima Thipataya party, Anongwan, is also likely to win a seat.

The last seat is likely to be battled out between the No 1 candidates of three parties – Anek Laothammatas of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, Praphat Panyachatrak of Chart Thai and Suradej Yasawat of Puea Paendin.

Since Anek and Prapat hail from Lampang, they would have a tough time competing with a former senator who won more than 100,000 votes in the previous Senate election.

Zone 2: No clear contender for supremacy

10 seats in this zone are likely to be shared by several parties. Each province in this zone would also be shared, such as Nakhon Sawan, which is the political base of PPP, the Democrats and Matchima Thipataya. Their candidates are former MP and senator Sunai Julpongsathorn of PPP, Malinee Sukvejvorakij of the Democrats and Banyin Tangpakorn of Matchima Thipataya.

Phichit is the political base of Paitoon Kaewthong of the Democrats and Pradit Pattaraprasit of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana.

Chaiyaphum was a Thai Rak Thai base, but this time it’s that of former MP Wutthichai Sanguanwongchai, who is running for the Democrats. It is predicted that PPP and the Democrats will compete for one seat.

Votes in Khon Kaen are likely to be shared between Suwit Khunkitti of Puea Paendin and the PPP candidate. In central provinces, such as Uthai Thani and Lop Buri, PPP should get votes, but Chart Thai also has a chance to win some seats.

No particular party is expected to win by a majority in this zone. However, PPP is estimated to get at least three or four seats, the Democrats may get two or three, Chart Thai may get two, while Puea Paendin, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, and Matchima Thipataya may get one seat each.

Zone 3: PPP set to sweep the board

It is estimated that PPP will swallow the majority of at least seven or eight seats, because Thai Rak Thai won 80 per cent of party-list votes in this area in previous elections. The fact that voters in this zone rejected the charter on the national referendum in August could also be an indication that Thai Rak Thai is still popular.

PPP candidates have a strong standing in this zone. They are either former senators or former MPs such as Srimuang Charoensiri, Chavalit Vichayasut, Sukhumphan Ngonkham, Thanathep Timsuwan, and Kittisak Hattasongkroa.

Puea Paendin, which has former police chief Pracha Promnok as its top candidate, is likely to grab a seat. For the others, it will be a battle between former Amnat Charoen MP Suthat Ngeunmuen of the Democrats, former Sakon Nakhon senator Maleerat Kaewka of Matchima Thipataya and former Udon Thani MP Chokesaman Silawong of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana.

Zone 4: Strong opposition awaits PPP

According to the result of the national referendum, Buri Ram is the only province in this zone that overwhelmingly voted yes on the charter, even though it looks like Thai Rak Thai or PPP remain popular. Thai Rak Thai won 80 per cent of party-list votes in the previous election, but this year PPP is not expected to win more than six seats.

This is because the top candidates of other parties are strong, such as former Ubon Ratchathani MP Vitoon Nambutr of the Democrats, former Buri Ram senator and MP Karun Sai-ngam of Matchima Thipataya, former Roi Et senator Surachai Danaitangtrakul of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and former deputy public health minister Wallop Thainua of Puea Paendin.

The PPP list is led by Secretary-General Surapong Suebwonglee, veteran politician Chai Chidchob, Phermpoon Thongsri, former Ubon Ratchathani MP Adisak Pokakulakanont and former Chiang Rai senator Wirun Fuensaeng.

Zone 5: Stakes high in Nakhon Ratchasima

This zone consists of provinces in three regions. Nakhon Ratchasima in the Northeast, Sa Kaew, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Nayok, Prachin Buri and Chachoengsao in the Central region, and Chon Buri, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Trat in the East.

Nakhon Ratchasima has the most eligible voters in this zone with 1.8 million from a total 5.6 million. The stakes in this province are high; the result of the voting will be significant to the election victory.

In the previous election, the defunct TRT received 70 per cent of the votes, the Democrats received less than 10 per cent, and the rest voted for Mahachon and Chart Thai.

In this election, Suwat has moved to the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and the votes will shift to his new party. Votes in Nakhon Ratchasima will be shared between Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and the PPP.

Kraisak Choonhavan, son of late former Prime Minister Chatichai who modernized Korat, leads the Democrats’ list. The party will receive a few votes from the province, but when it adds the party’s political base in other provinces such as Nakhon Nayok, Rayong, Chanthaburi, and Trat - it is likely to win two seats.

Most of the rest of the provinces in this zone are the PPP’s base, except Sa Kaew, which is held by Snoh Thienthong of Pracharaj and Chon Buri for the Chart Thai.

It is estimated that the PPP will get five seats, which are Wirun Techapaiboon, Somphol Keyuraphan, Sudarat’s father, Asanee Cherdchai, Thaksin’s spokesman Noppadon Pattama and Wutthipong Kittithanesuan.

Gen Chettha Thanajaro and Wirat Ratanasate of the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Kraisak and Somkiate Pongpaiboon of Democrats will win two seats each.

The last seat will be a competition between candidate No 1 of the Pracharaj, and Snoh and Akraphol Sorasuchart of the Chart Thai. The latter has a higher chance as the Chart Thai has more eligible voters than Sa Kaew.

Zone 6: “The group of death”

The contest in Zone 6 appears to be heating up in the capital, where party leaders, key figures, and heavyweight politicians are standing.

Four party leaders, Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat Party, Samak Sundaravej of the PPP, Prachai Leophairatana of Matchima Thipataya, and Pramuan Ruchanaseree of Prachamati will contest this zone.

The PPP is also represented in Zone 6 by Chalerm Yoobamrung, Mingkwan Saengsuwan, the former MCOT president and anti-coup campaigners Jatuporn Phromphan and Manit Jitchanklab.

Other Democrats to contest the zone will be Charoen Kanthawong, MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra, Pussadee Tamthai, Prakob Jirakiti, Buranaj Smutharaks, Anik Amaranand, Prakob Sangto, Isara Sunthornwat and Chivavej Vejjajiva.

Pracharaj Party of Snoh Thienthong has veteran actor Sombat Methanee to lead the list in this zone.

The contest in this zone is a clash of titans. There will be some party leaders or heavyweights who will lose the race such as newcomer politician Prachai or Pramuan, who have no political base in this zone.

Most seats are likely to be shared between the two big parties, the PPP and the Democrats as their strong hold.

The Democrats are likely to win over the PPP, as the latter are at a bit of a disadvantage.

Bangkok and suburban voters are better informed about political developments than their compatriots in the provinces. Unlike voters in provinces, Bangkok voters usually make their decision at the last minute. In the anti-Thaksin protest last year many Bangkok residents joined the protest.

Jatuporn and Manit, who emerged at the last minute on the list, maybe backfire on the PPP. As they are anti-coup campaigners, voters might turn down any candidate who tends to create more conflict. Even within the PPP, many candidates for the Bangkok seats said the two would cause an erosion of votes.

The Suan Dusit’s latest poll found the Democrats would win 46 per cent while the PPP would get 30 per cent in the December election.

For Nonthaburi, the defunct TRT won 60 per cent of the party-list system in the previous election while the Democrats won 30 per cent. The rest belonged to Chart Thai and Mahachon, which this time has moved to the Chart Thai.

For Samut Prakan, the defunct TRT won 70 per cent and the Democrats won 20 per cent, while the Chart Thai and Mahachon shared 10 per cent.

It is estimated the Democrats will win four to five seats and the PPP four seats. The last seat may be a competition between Deputy Chart Thai Party leader Yutthasak Sasiprapha (candidate No 1 of Chart Thai) and MR Kitiwattana Chaiyan of Puea Paendin. Yutthasak is likely to win this seat because the party has a strong base in Don Muang district.

The others two party leaders, Prachai and Pramuan are likely to lose out as they have no political base in the zone.

Zone 7: Three-way share of honours

Most provinces in this zone are in the Central region. Seats here are likely to be shared among three parties; four seats for the PPP, and three seats each for the Democrats and the Chart Thai.

In the previous election the TRT won the most votes in each province in this zone except in the Democrat’s base in Ranong, Chumphon, Prachuab Khiri Khan and Phetchaburi. Although most of the provinces in the Central region are in Banharn Silapa-archa’s Chart Thai’s stronghold, the party only won the most votes in Suphan Buri.

The PPP list is led by Chaiya Sasomsap, Sornchai Montriwat, Chavarin Latthasaksiri, Rewat Sirinukul, and Viroj Paoin.

The Democrats list is led by Manoonkrit Roopkachorn, Niphon Visityutthasatr, Suwaroj Palang, and Attaporn Polabutr.

The Chart Thai list is led by Banharn Silapa-archa’s daughter Kanchajana, Praphat Phothasuthon, Jongchai Thiengtham and Buppha Robroo.

Zone 8: Democrats to triumph in stronghold

This zone is the weakest area for the PPP and the strongest area for the Democrats. The latter is likely to win up to eight or nine seats.

Chuan Leekpai, chief adviser for the Democrats, will lead the party-list, followed by Banyat Bantadtan, Trairong Suwankhiri, Jurin Laksanavisit, Chamni Sakdiseth, and Niphon Boonyamanee. All are former party-list and constituency MPs.

It is almost impossible to weaken the Democrat’s long-established stronghold in the South. It will be very difficult for a rival party to win any seat in that area. In the 2005 election the Democrats won around 2.5 million votes from the total of 3.9 million. The Democrats are likely to sweep eight to nine seats.

The rest will be a fight between member of the Wadah group Areephen Uttrasin of the PPP and Nikorn Chamnong of the Chart Thai or Manop Patanawong of Puea Paendin. But Areephen seems to have the best chance as his group has been established in the restive south for a long time.

- The Nation

*All double digit numbers in the above chart, except for the totals column, are missing a dash between the numbers, eg. "34" should read "3-4" *

[sriracha john]

She kept her clothes on this time....

Leena Jangjanya filed a police complaint on Tuesday against Matchima Thipataya Party Leader Prachai Leophairatana and other party executives accusing them of deception. She said they broke their promise of fielding her in the upcoming election.

The Nation

[sriracha john]

2nd Day of Constituency MP Registration Not as Lively

The second day of constituency MP registration nationwide is quiet as most major political parties had already registered their candidates on Monday. In Bangkok, the second day of constituency MP registration continues at the Thai-Japanese Dindaeng Stadium. In the morning, only two political parties showed up to register their constituency MP candidates, but there were no supporters there to cheer them on.

The first party that arrived today is the small-sized Prachamati Party, led by former Thai Rak Thai Party member, Pramual Rujanaseri,who turned against the Party before its demise.

The party fields a complete list of 36 candidates for all the 12 constituencies in Bangkok. In the provinces, the party will try to field candidates in every province.

The other party that showed up on Tuesday is another small party called the Palang Pandin Thai, led by Somsak Worakamin. In Bangkok, the party is only fielding candidates in constituency 5 and they received candidacy numbers 25, 26, and 27.

Elsewhere in Thailand, the second day of constituency MP registration remains quiet. In Buriram province in the northeast and the Satun province in the south, there were no MP candidates registering this morning.

In Nakorn Ratchasima province in the northeast, the provincial EC office concluded that during the first day of registration, 12 political parties showed up with 107 MP candidates.

Parties that fielded candidates for all six constituencies are Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, People Power, Matchima Thippatai, and the Democrat party. The Pue Pandin and Thai Pen Thai parties fielded candidates for five constituencies.

- Thailand Outlook

[hammered]

An analysis of the Party-list MP's chances... zone by zone...

Pro-Thaksin vote unlikely to help PPP

Things will not be the same this year for the once popular but now defunct Thai Rak Thai Party, which has now transformed into the People Power Party (PPP). Its chances of winning by a landslide are very slim.

While PPP might win most seats of party-list MPs, the number of MP seats it would get in December would be a lot less compared to previous elections. Thai Rak Thai won 67 of the 100 party-list MP seats in the 2005 election.

In this year’s election, the party-list vote covers 80 House seats in eight zones. There are 10 seats up for grabs in each zone and it is estimated that PPP will get less than 40.

The Democrat Party will probably finish in second place.

Here are the reasons why PPP’s chances to win by a landslide are slim:

Firstly, the new election system is different because votes will not be calculated according to a nationwide count, but will instead be counted on a the basis of eight zones, each of which has 10 party-list MPs.

Secondly, some former Thai Rak Thai MPs have joined other parties such as Puea Paendin, Matchima Thipataya, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Chart Thai. This means their popularity would not ensure votes for one single party.

Thirdly, PPP’s popularity is not at as great as it was during former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s reign.

Fourthly, the calculation of votes for party-list MPs will benefit small parties because they will be given the chance to win a seat even if their votes are below average, which will clearly put PPP at a disadvantage.

Based on a voter turnout of 60 to 65 per cent, it is estimated that around 350,000 to 400,000 votes would win a party-list seat.

Here is an analysis on how big political groups like the Democrats and People Power are going to fare in the December 23 election, and the chances of smaller and new parties have in winning seats in the proportional vote:

Zone 1: Thaksin’s allies face tough battle

In the 2005 elections, Thai Rak Thai won with 70 per cent and the Democrats got 20 per cent. The rest of the votes went to other parties. However, things are different this year. For instance, this year votes in Sukhothai would belong to Matchima Thipataya led by banned Thai Rak Thai executive member Somsak Thepsuthin.

So, PPP is estimated to win with 60 per cent or six seats out of 10.

PPP candidates in this zone are led by Thaksin’s close aide Yongyuth Tiyapairat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat and former MPs Sompong Amornwiwat, Karn Thienkaew, Samphan Lertnuwat and Thavorn Treeratnanarong.

Two seats should belong to the Democrats, which is led by Therdpong Chaiyanan and Samart Ratchpolsit, while Somsak’s wife and Secretary-General of the Matchima Thipataya party, Anongwan, is also likely to win a seat.

The last seat is likely to be battled out between the No 1 candidates of three parties – Anek Laothammatas of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, Praphat Panyachatrak of Chart Thai and Suradej Yasawat of Puea Paendin.

Since Anek and Prapat hail from Lampang, they would have a tough time competing with a former senator who won more than 100,000 votes in the previous Senate election.

Zone 2: No clear contender for supremacy

10 seats in this zone are likely to be shared by several parties. Each province in this zone would also be shared, such as Nakhon Sawan, which is the political base of PPP, the Democrats and Matchima Thipataya. Their candidates are former MP and senator Sunai Julpongsathorn of PPP, Malinee Sukvejvorakij of the Democrats and Banyin Tangpakorn of Matchima Thipataya.

Phichit is the political base of Paitoon Kaewthong of the Democrats and Pradit Pattaraprasit of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana.

Chaiyaphum was a Thai Rak Thai base, but this time it’s that of former MP Wutthichai Sanguanwongchai, who is running for the Democrats. It is predicted that PPP and the Democrats will compete for one seat.

Votes in Khon Kaen are likely to be shared between Suwit Khunkitti of Puea Paendin and the PPP candidate. In central provinces, such as Uthai Thani and Lop Buri, PPP should get votes, but Chart Thai also has a chance to win some seats.

No particular party is expected to win by a majority in this zone. However, PPP is estimated to get at least three or four seats, the Democrats may get two or three, Chart Thai may get two, while Puea Paendin, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, and Matchima Thipataya may get one seat each.

Zone 3: PPP set to sweep the board

It is estimated that PPP will swallow the majority of at least seven or eight seats, because Thai Rak Thai won 80 per cent of party-list votes in this area in previous elections. The fact that voters in this zone rejected the charter on the national referendum in August could also be an indication that Thai Rak Thai is still popular.

PPP candidates have a strong standing in this zone. They are either former senators or former MPs such as Srimuang Charoensiri, Chavalit Vichayasut, Sukhumphan Ngonkham, Thanathep Timsuwan, and Kittisak Hattasongkroa.

Puea Paendin, which has former police chief Pracha Promnok as its top candidate, is likely to grab a seat. For the others, it will be a battle between former Amnat Charoen MP Suthat Ngeunmuen of the Democrats, former Sakon Nakhon senator Maleerat Kaewka of Matchima Thipataya and former Udon Thani MP Chokesaman Silawong of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana.

Zone 4: Strong opposition awaits PPP

According to the result of the national referendum, Buri Ram is the only province in this zone that overwhelmingly voted yes on the charter, even though it looks like Thai Rak Thai or PPP remain popular. Thai Rak Thai won 80 per cent of party-list votes in the previous election, but this year PPP is not expected to win more than six seats.

This is because the top candidates of other parties are strong, such as former Ubon Ratchathani MP Vitoon Nambutr of the Democrats, former Buri Ram senator and MP Karun Sai-ngam of Matchima Thipataya, former Roi Et senator Surachai Danaitangtrakul of Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and former deputy public health minister Wallop Thainua of Puea Paendin.

The PPP list is led by Secretary-General Surapong Suebwonglee, veteran politician Chai Chidchob, Phermpoon Thongsri, former Ubon Ratchathani MP Adisak Pokakulakanont and former Chiang Rai senator Wirun Fuensaeng.

Zone 5: Stakes high in Nakhon Ratchasima

This zone consists of provinces in three regions. Nakhon Ratchasima in the Northeast, Sa Kaew, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Nayok, Prachin Buri and Chachoengsao in the Central region, and Chon Buri, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Trat in the East.

Nakhon Ratchasima has the most eligible voters in this zone with 1.8 million from a total 5.6 million. The stakes in this province are high; the result of the voting will be significant to the election victory.

In the previous election, the defunct TRT received 70 per cent of the votes, the Democrats received less than 10 per cent, and the rest voted for Mahachon and Chart Thai.

In this election, Suwat has moved to the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and the votes will shift to his new party. Votes in Nakhon Ratchasima will be shared between Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and the PPP.

Kraisak Choonhavan, son of late former Prime Minister Chatichai who modernized Korat, leads the Democrats’ list. The party will receive a few votes from the province, but when it adds the party’s political base in other provinces such as Nakhon Nayok, Rayong, Chanthaburi, and Trat - it is likely to win two seats.

Most of the rest of the provinces in this zone are the PPP’s base, except Sa Kaew, which is held by Snoh Thienthong of Pracharaj and Chon Buri for the Chart Thai.

It is estimated that the PPP will get five seats, which are Wirun Techapaiboon, Somphol Keyuraphan, Sudarat’s father, Asanee Cherdchai, Thaksin’s spokesman Noppadon Pattama and Wutthipong Kittithanesuan.

Gen Chettha Thanajaro and Wirat Ratanasate of the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Kraisak and Somkiate Pongpaiboon of Democrats will win two seats each.

The last seat will be a competition between candidate No 1 of the Pracharaj, and Snoh and Akraphol Sorasuchart of the Chart Thai. The latter has a higher chance as the Chart Thai has more eligible voters than Sa Kaew.

Zone 6: “The group of death”

The contest in Zone 6 appears to be heating up in the capital, where party leaders, key figures, and heavyweight politicians are standing.

Four party leaders, Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat Party, Samak Sundaravej of the PPP, Prachai Leophairatana of Matchima Thipataya, and Pramuan Ruchanaseree of Prachamati will contest this zone.

The PPP is also represented in Zone 6 by Chalerm Yoobamrung, Mingkwan Saengsuwan, the former MCOT president and anti-coup campaigners Jatuporn Phromphan and Manit Jitchanklab.

Other Democrats to contest the zone will be Charoen Kanthawong, MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra, Pussadee Tamthai, Prakob Jirakiti, Buranaj Smutharaks, Anik Amaranand, Prakob Sangto, Isara Sunthornwat and Chivavej Vejjajiva.

Pracharaj Party of Snoh Thienthong has veteran actor Sombat Methanee to lead the list in this zone.

The contest in this zone is a clash of titans. There will be some party leaders or heavyweights who will lose the race such as newcomer politician Prachai or Pramuan, who have no political base in this zone.

Most seats are likely to be shared between the two big parties, the PPP and the Democrats as their strong hold.

The Democrats are likely to win over the PPP, as the latter are at a bit of a disadvantage.

Bangkok and suburban voters are better informed about political developments than their compatriots in the provinces. Unlike voters in provinces, Bangkok voters usually make their decision at the last minute. In the anti-Thaksin protest last year many Bangkok residents joined the protest.

Jatuporn and Manit, who emerged at the last minute on the list, maybe backfire on the PPP. As they are anti-coup campaigners, voters might turn down any candidate who tends to create more conflict. Even within the PPP, many candidates for the Bangkok seats said the two would cause an erosion of votes.

The Suan Dusit’s latest poll found the Democrats would win 46 per cent while the PPP would get 30 per cent in the December election.

For Nonthaburi, the defunct TRT won 60 per cent of the party-list system in the previous election while the Democrats won 30 per cent. The rest belonged to Chart Thai and Mahachon, which this time has moved to the Chart Thai.

For Samut Prakan, the defunct TRT won 70 per cent and the Democrats won 20 per cent, while the Chart Thai and Mahachon shared 10 per cent.

It is estimated the Democrats will win four to five seats and the PPP four seats. The last seat may be a competition between Deputy Chart Thai Party leader Yutthasak Sasiprapha (candidate No 1 of Chart Thai) and MR Kitiwattana Chaiyan of Puea Paendin. Yutthasak is likely to win this seat because the party has a strong base in Don Muang district.

The others two party leaders, Prachai and Pramuan are likely to lose out as they have no political base in the zone.

Zone 7: Three-way share of honours

Most provinces in this zone are in the Central region. Seats here are likely to be shared among three parties; four seats for the PPP, and three seats each for the Democrats and the Chart Thai.

In the previous election the TRT won the most votes in each province in this zone except in the Democrat’s base in Ranong, Chumphon, Prachuab Khiri Khan and Phetchaburi. Although most of the provinces in the Central region are in Banharn Silapa-archa’s Chart Thai’s stronghold, the party only won the most votes in Suphan Buri.

The PPP list is led by Chaiya Sasomsap, Sornchai Montriwat, Chavarin Latthasaksiri, Rewat Sirinukul, and Viroj Paoin.

The Democrats list is led by Manoonkrit Roopkachorn, Niphon Visityutthasatr, Suwaroj Palang, and Attaporn Polabutr.

The Chart Thai list is led by Banharn Silapa-archa’s daughter Kanchajana, Praphat Phothasuthon, Jongchai Thiengtham and Buppha Robroo.

Zone 8: Democrats to triumph in stronghold

This zone is the weakest area for the PPP and the strongest area for the Democrats. The latter is likely to win up to eight or nine seats.

Chuan Leekpai, chief adviser for the Democrats, will lead the party-list, followed by Banyat Bantadtan, Trairong Suwankhiri, Jurin Laksanavisit, Chamni Sakdiseth, and Niphon Boonyamanee. All are former party-list and constituency MPs.

It is almost impossible to weaken the Democrat’s long-established stronghold in the South. It will be very difficult for a rival party to win any seat in that area. In the 2005 election the Democrats won around 2.5 million votes from the total of 3.9 million. The Democrats are likely to sweep eight to nine seats.

The rest will be a fight between member of the Wadah group Areephen Uttrasin of the PPP and Nikorn Chamnong of the Chart Thai or Manop Patanawong of Puea Paendin. But Areephen seems to have the best chance as his group has been established in the restive south for a long time.

- The Nation

*All double digit numbers in the above chart, except for the totals column, are missing a dash between the numbers, eg. "34" should read "3-4" *

The assumption seems to be that unless PPP win outright (unlikely) or get very very close (possible) they will not be able to form a government, and may not even have the chance to try although one cannot rule out the effect of huge money dumping on coaltion negotiations.

[sriracha john]

For some reason, I'm reminded of Wrestlemania...

Verbal war between Samak, Abhisit erupts

Leader of People Power Party (PPP) Samak Sundaravej confirmed he will not debate against Democrat Party Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, saying Abhisit is no match for him. Samak called the debate useless as political experience of him and the leader of the rival party are different. He also expressed disagreement that Democrat Party and Chart Thai Party declared to be political alliance ahead of the election, saying that how can Chart Thai Party Leader Banharn Silpa-archa be certain that the Democrat will get to form a new government. Shortly after Samak's statement, Abhisit countered his verbal attack, saying it is nonsense to say that he is not a match for Samak. Abhisit also vowed to

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=123568

=========================================================

I'm thinking a Main Event cage match at Impact Arena would be the best match....

Edited November 14, 2007 by sriracha john

[hammered]

For some reason, I'm reminded of Wrestlemania...

Verbal war between Samak, Abhisit erupts

Leader of People Power Party (PPP) Samak Sundaravej confirmed he will not debate against Democrat Party Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, saying Abhisit is no match for him. Samak called the debate useless as political experience of him and the leader of the rival party are different. He also expressed disagreement that Democrat Party and Chart Thai Party declared to be political alliance ahead of the election, saying that how can Chart Thai Party Leader Banharn Silpa-archa be certain that the Democrat will get to form a new government. Shortly after Samak's statement, Abhisit countered his verbal attack, saying it is nonsense to say that he is not a match for Samak. Abhisit also vowed to

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=123568

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I'm thinking a Main Event cage match at Impact Arena would be the best match....

Im quite sure there is no way Mr. Thaksin will allow a lose cannon like Mr. Samak into any televised debate in which he could completely self destruct especially against Mr. Abhisit. Mr. Samak will have to put some spin on what could be seen as an act of politcal cowardice in not being allowed to accept the challenge, but he does open himself up for the coward label now. Quite extraordinary really considering his many previous public speeches including the one back in 1976 that he wont face up to someone on an equal footing.

Edited November 14, 2007 by hammered

[John K]

For some reason, I'm reminded of Wrestlemania...

Verbal war between Samak, Abhisit erupts

Leader of People Power Party (PPP) Samak Sundaravej confirmed he will not debate against Democrat Party Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, saying Abhisit is no match for him. Samak called the debate useless as political experience of him and the leader of the rival party are different. He also expressed disagreement that Democrat Party and Chart Thai Party declared to be political alliance ahead of the election, saying that how can Chart Thai Party Leader Banharn Silpa-archa be certain that the Democrat will get to form a new government. Shortly after Samak's statement, Abhisit countered his verbal attack, saying it is nonsense to say that he is not a match for Samak. Abhisit also vowed to

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=123568

=========================================================

I'm thinking a Main Event cage match at Impact Arena would be the best match....

Im quite sure there is no way Mr. Thaksin will allow a lose cannon like Mr. Samak into any televised debate in which he could completely self destruct especially against Mr. Abhisit. Mr. Samak will have to put some spin on what could be seen as an act of politcal cowardice in not being allowed to accept the challenge, but he does open himself up for the coward label now. Quite extraordinary really considering his many previous public speeches including the one back in 1976 that he wont face up to someone on an equal footing.

I think coward my not be the correct label to give Samak, but whatever works. I actually think it is genuine lack of experience in being the type of politician the new charter forces him to be. Either way he looks bad. I also don’t think he has a clue what to do so any questions that go deeper than the name of said plan or policy will fall apart almost in the first sentence of his reply.

[Tony Clifton]

It was the same with Thaksin, too begin with, both men faced with too much to answer to, both emotionally unstable, both political failures refusing to die, both caught in a web of lies they're trying to wriggle out of by standing in the spotlight as a F.C. owner while in exile or hoping to regain power to clear their names along with the names of a whole panoply of cronies and criminals.

That's why they have nothing to say.

Did you have unlawful sex last night?