USD to THB - any advice on if US Dollar might get any stronger?

[ThoMichael]

I am just wondering about USD to THB exchange - any advice on if US Dollar might get any stronger?

 

The reason I ask is within the next few weeks I will be transfering $21,000 / 800,000 Baht to a Thai bank for my retierment visa extension. I am kinda tight for money, so hope to do the transfer when the US dollar is close to it's peak, but don't want to get greedy and wait until after the US dollar starts to drop.

 

Thanks for any advice.

 

ps:  I am thinking I should do it asap?

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by ThoMichael
Additional info

[Mavideol]

did you try a crystal ball or the tarot cards, there are, also,  some fortune tellers at the corner of some street, just kidding ????  many of us on the same position/situation, as of now it's not looking good as it dropped, last night 38.13

1.00 US Dollar =

37.562206 Thai Baht

[ThoMichael]

15 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

as it dropped, last night 38.13

1.00 US Dollar =

37.562206 Thai Baht

Yeah ???? I am thinking I better do my transfer tomorrow.

[Tom H]

Just set an exchange rate as a limit for the exchange under WISE, i.e. 38.10 then when reached automatic transfer follows:). 

Dependening on the time frame you have you can adjust the limit conservative (lower) to speculative (higher rate).

 

Easy with transfer Wise and placed limits:)

[Bill97]

Just do it.  Nobody knows up or down.  

[nigelforbes]

Statistically speaking you should make the transfer right now, the rate has rarely been better. Statistically speaking it is unlikely to improve.

[ThoMichael]

8 minutes ago, Tom H said:

Just set an exchange rate as a limit for the exchange under WISE, i.e. 38.10 then when reached automatic transfer follows:). 

That is great advice! I am going to use Wise. And I have a few weeks, but I guess I better not to set it too high. If it never reaches my desired exchange rate the transfer will never happen.  

 

Have to think of a logical exchange rate. Any suggestions? 

????

[Mavideol]

28 minutes ago, ThoMichael said:

Yeah ???? I am thinking I better do my transfer tomorrow.

up to you, I have until the 24th of this month, thus will wait as I am a "gambler"  but BOT news are a little worrying

Update – BoT expects GDP to continue positive growth into 2023, admits intervention in Forex but not ‘to change direction’ of Baht

https://www.thaienquirer.com/44863/bank-of-thailand-expects-thai-economy-to-return-to-pre-pandemic-levels-by-year-end-or-early-2023-but-warns-of-possible-speed-bumps/

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, ThoMichael said:

That is great advice! I am going to use Wise. And I have a few weeks, but I guess I better not to set it too high. If it never reaches my desired exchange rate the transfer will never happen.  

 

Have to think of a logical exchange rate. Any suggestions? 

????

Yes, whatever the exchange rate is at this very  moment, anything else is risky.

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, Mavideol said:

up to you, I have until the 24th of this month, thus will wait as I am a "gambler"  but BOT news are a little worrying

Update – BoT expects GDP to continue positive growth into 2023, admits intervention in Forex but not ‘to change direction’ of Baht

https://www.thaienquirer.com/44863/bank-of-thailand-expects-thai-economy-to-return-to-pre-pandemic-levels-by-year-end-or-early-2023-but-warns-of-possible-speed-bumps/

This is routine stuff that happens every week, BOT smoothes the exchange rate, that's all.

[Mavideol]

14 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Statistically speaking you should make the transfer right now, the rate has rarely been better. Statistically speaking it is unlikely to improve.

they should/would/will improve again as soon as the US raises interest rates by end of the year

[Sparktrader]

23 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Statistically speaking you should make the transfer right now, the rate has rarely been better. Statistically speaking it is unlikely to improve.

Well yes its high

A fall might happen

 

Bearish pattern

 

 

[nigelforbes]

9 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

they should/would/will improve again as soon as the US raises interest rates by end of the year

I wouldn't bet the farm that the next rate increase will be as big as some think, I also wouldn't bet anything that BOT wont increase rates and close the gap. Overly strong USD is wreaking havoc in many economies, inflation or not the current rate and trajectory of trend cannot continue for long. 

[nigelforbes]

Just now, Sparktrader said:

Well yes its high

A fall might happen

 

Bearish pattern

 

 

You beat me to it, that's just what my tea leaves say also. :))

[Sparktrader]

13 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

they should/would/will improve again as soon as the US raises interest rates by end of the year

Rates might level off

 

[1FinickyOne]

17 minutes ago, ThoMichael said:

Have to think of a logical exchange rate. Any suggestions? 

it doesn't work on logic...

 

It is a market, it goes up and down due to market forces... 

[nigelforbes]

Just now, Sparktrader said:

Rates might level off

 

It might snow.

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, nigelforbes said:

You beat me to it, that's just what my tea leaves say also. :))

Spike candles usually mean a reversal. Plus stochastic overbought.

 

 

[Sparktrader]

Hard to see it go higher this year. That's a 5 wave bull run done.

[Mavideol]

7 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

I wouldn't bet the farm that the next rate increase will be as big as some think, I also wouldn't bet anything that BOT wont increase rates and close the gap. Overly strong USD is wreaking havoc in many economies, inflation or not the current rate and trajectory of trend cannot continue for long. 

if BOT raise/increase rates many people/business in Thailand will not be able to make their monthly payments and many more will be forced to shut down

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, Sparktrader said:

Hard to see it go higher this year. That's a 5 wave bull run done.

A 5 wave? Surf's up! ????

 

More seriously. US Social Security gets paid in Thailand on 3/4th of the month, the impact on THB/USD is noticeable every month because THB is such a small currency.

[stoner]

hehehe this guy having fomo on exchange rate....dont start trading btc my man. lol 

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, Mavideol said:

if BOT raise/increase rates many people/business in Thailand will not be able to make their monthly payments and many more will be forced to shut down

Agreed, but BOT absolutely will increase rates, there is no doubt.

[Iamfalang]

next few weeks?  yeah, probably can't help you.  USD probably gets stronger.  

 

In the next six months, 100% the USD will be stronger than the Baht within that time.   100% this is not the high.   It will go higher.....100%.    

 

50 is coming, but maybe not in the next 6-months.  Maybe over 40, over 42, maybe more.....

 

100% this is not the top for the next six months.

 

100% Bitcoin will make new lows within the next 6 months.

 

 

 

[ThoMichael]

34 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Statistically speaking you should make the transfer right now, the rate has rarely been better.

Yeah, I have to wait until tomorrow morning, but I better do it. Better safe than sorry. It is a great exchange rate right now.

[Iamfalang]

Just now, ThoMichael said:

Yeah, I have to wait until tomorrow morning, but I better do it. Better safe than sorry. It is a great exchange rate right now.

I didn't read the thread...

 

If you have a few weeks or a month......maybe just exchange HALF....

 

If I'm right and you make money, send me money.  If I'm wrong, too bad, don't listen to the internet.  

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, Iamfalang said:

next few weeks?  yeah, probably can't help you.  USD probably gets stronger.  

 

In the next six months, 100% the USD will be stronger than the Baht within that time.   100% this is not the high.   It will go higher.....100%.    

 

50 is coming, but maybe not in the next 6-months.  Maybe over 40, over 42, maybe more.....

 

100% this is not the top for the next six months.

 

100% Bitcoin will make new lows within the next 6 months.

 

 

 

There isn't a single person on the planet who can support what you've written, not even the US Fed. Please, if you're going to express an opinion, please feel free to do so. But please don't express it as fact, it's seriously unhelpful for others.

[Sparktrader]

3 minutes ago, Iamfalang said:

next few weeks?  yeah, probably can't help you.  USD probably gets stronger.  

 

In the next six months, 100% the USD will be stronger than the Baht within that time.   100% this is not the high.   It will go higher.....100%.    

 

50 is coming, but maybe not in the next 6-months.  Maybe over 40, over 42, maybe more.....

 

100% this is not the top for the next six months.

 

100% Bitcoin will make new lows within the next 6 months.

 

 

 

No trader is right more than 65%.

 

100% is nonsense. Otherwise you are a billionaire.

[Mavideol]

8 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Agreed, but BOT absolutely will increase rates, there is no doubt.

by how much quarter % or less but not a good time now as elections are coming, timing is everything and BOT doesn't have much of it

[Mavideol]

13 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

A 5 wave? Surf's up! ????

 

More seriously. US Social Security gets paid in Thailand on 3/4th of the month, the impact on THB/USD is noticeable every month because THB is such a small currency.

based on that, the rate should start to move tomorrow then, let's wait and see, I just receive my SS yesterday  at a good rate as it dropped today, thus have a free meal on hand 555