Thailand's economy to grow 3.6 pct in 2023: World Bank

[webfact]

 

Source: Xinhua | Editor: huaxia
   
BANGKOK,  (Xinhua) -- The World Bank expected Thailand's economy to grow 3.6 percent year on year in 2023, accelerating from 2.6 percent in 2022, supported by domestic consumption, tourism recovery and pent-up demand in China.

 

The faster growth will come from stronger domestic private consumption and revival of tourism, the World Bank East Asia and Pacific Chief Economist Aaditya Mattoo said at a virtual press conference Friday, when the bank released its latest East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update report.

 

Thailand's tourist arrivals are projected to increase to 27 million in 2023, reaching 68 percent of the pre-pandemic level, and are expected to accelerate and surpass the pre-pandemic level by 2024, according to the bank.

 

However, Thailand's goods exports in U.S. dollar-denominated terms are expected to contract in 2023, due to slowing global growth, Mattoo said.

 

Mattoo said though the Southeast Asian country's inflation remains higher than the target range, the inflation pressures have eased.

 

Full story: https://english.news.cn/20230331/ab174343acf24bdaaf8d390b7971c4a8/c.html

 

-- © Copyright Xinhua 2023-04-01

 

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[nigelforbes]

"growth will come from stronger domestic private consumption and revival of tourism".

 

This is why tourism is important, a stronger Baht is merely a bi-product of this.

 

[sscc]

GDP growth projection for 2023 per IMF, World Bank, and Global Bankers and local government is 

USA        1 % 

UK         negative figure 

EU          less than 1 %

China     5 %

Japan    negative figure 

 

3.6 % projection for Thailand is not bad at all.

[sscc]

14 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

"growth will come from stronger domestic private consumption and revival of tourism".

 

This is why tourism is important, a stronger Baht is merely a bi-product of this.

 

 

Tourism had growth nicely for Thailand even since early/mid  1970's.  Thailand tourism had also outperformed their neighbors in SouthEast Asia for decades. 

Those predicted gloom is simply OUT of their mind or with ill intend. 

[Longwood50]

One does have to keep in mind that Thailands inflation rate in 2022 was 6.3% so the GDP would have to grow by that amount just to remain flat. 

[nigelforbes]

6 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

One does have to keep in mind that Thailands inflation rate in 2022 was 6.3% so the GDP would have to grow by that amount just to remain flat. 

It may have been so for one or two months but the average over the year was much lower. Core inflation averaged just over 3% for the year 2022.

 

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/core-inflation-rate

[Longwood50]

3 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

It may have been so for one or two months but the average over the year was much lower. Core inflation averaged just over 3% for the year 2022.

Different source different answer
https://www.statista.com/statistics/332274/inflation-rate-in-thailand/

[mommysboy]

And yet ordinary citizens seem to be getting poorer.

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, Longwood50 said:

Different source different answer
https://www.statista.com/statistics/332274/inflation-rate-in-thailand/

The TE graph is monthly where as the Statista graph is yearly, the latter is also a forecast for the years 2022 through 2027 as denoted by the asterisks next to the year. They both appear to be the same, up to end year 2021 where statista  forecasts take over but TE continues to use core inflation. It doesn't make sense that statista would switch from showing core inflation to using CPI, on the same graph!

[Longwood50]

12 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

It may have been so for one or two months but the average over the year was much lower. Core inflation averaged just over 3% for the year 2022.

True but the core inflation ignores food and energy cost.  That hardly is representative of increases in GDP.  If consumers spend more on food which has gone up dramatically, and energy which likewise has risen substantially those figures show up in GDP.  As said, the inflation rate was over 6.3% which ties to what TE said inflation not core inflation was. 

[nigelforbes]

5 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

True but the core inflation ignores food and energy cost.  That hardly is representative of increases in GDP.  If consumers spend more on food which has gone up dramatically, and energy which likewise has risen substantially those figures show up in GDP.  As said, the inflation rate was over 6.3% which ties to what TE said inflation not core inflation was. 

Your becoming confused on the graphs, the Trading Economics (TE) graph I posted shows inflation averaging just over 3%, NOT 6.3%, they are reporting core inflation, not overall inflation during specific months! And as said, your statista graph showing 2022 onwards are forecasts, not actuals.

 

Food and energy costs are transient, they are variable over the course of the year, just because they are high some months, doesn't mean they will be the same all year long and carry through consistently to the GDP calculation at the end of the year. IF inflation in year 1 was 2% and then because of a natural disaster it spiked overall to 10% for part of year 2, it would be reported under your premise that inflation had increased by 8% during year2. But then, in year 3, inflation returns to near normal because there were no substantial spikes and it comes in at 2.5% for the year. Again, using  your premise, inflation would have fallen by -7.5% and would be negative, which of course it was not.

 

BOT's remit is to maintain core inflation in a target range of 1-3%, their remit is not to keep inflation overall, under a specific level because that is not achievable due to its inconsistent and variable nature. Suggesting annual inflation was 6% is like suggesting the daily temperature was 36 degrees, all year long, just because it was that for a few hours on some days!

 

https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/Pages/OverviewInflation.aspx

 

"In general, inflation can be calculated by comparing the current price of products and services to the previous year's price. The inflation rate refers to the average increase in the price of goods and services".

 

NB: it does not say daily, weekly or monthly, the unit of measure is one year.

Edited April 1, 2023 by nigelforbes