Thai Baht May Hit 30 To The Us Dollar

[number6]

Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

Excuse me? Not sure what you mean by that - I was simply pointing out that the Dollar has dropped rather than the Baht having strengthened. The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

No, it is sitting around 64 at the present, as I wired money over from a sterling account last month and that was the rate given, so it is not just the dollar that is weakening the pound has also fallen in stregnth. Last year, was getting about 71 - 73 when wiring money over, so ithe difference is noticeable.

your bank must have given you offshore rate ive transfered several times over last 2 months and last time 2 days ago got

68-69 every time make sure your bank transfer funds in £ not in baht and u get onshore rate

[bonobo]

We have signed a major contract with a large multinational. Our prices were based on 34.5 baht to the dollar. The multinational has offices around the world, but all prices are based in USD.

If the baht does rise to 30, we have two choices--complete the contract for no profit or even a loss, or cancel the contract. My gut feeling is that we will have to cancel the contract, which will mean we may have to let off 50 or 60 of our work force.

I just pray that the Thai economic gurus who were predicting 37 or even 38 baht to the dollar by next January were right. Otherwise, our company is really going to suffer, and we will have to scale back and serve only the domestic demand.

[jumnien]

I remember the gurus a couple years back predicting 160 yen per dollar. The experts are always good for a laugh!

[rmillsbkk]

Being a true blue and not "noticing" any "notable" change in the rate for some time now, i think it really doesn't take an Einstein to figure it out. It's what we have already known for years and the truth is finally out "the eagle has landed" crash and burned to be precise, and the "green" eyed monster is rearing its ugly head only because everyone else is getting it right. Sometimes it doesn't matter how many times you hit their heads against a brick wall, they never say ouch!

[csmith]

Today ... Monday 9th July 2007 my Bank (HSBC) in Jersey quoted me to transfer pounds to Baht in Thailand at 61

i.e. 1 pound = 61 baht

They also took Baht off their online banking service because of the rapid fluctuations so the transfer could only be done with a telephone call.

Now this is a BIG drop ..... I usually just roll with these things ... but this large change knocked me off my seat.

[Freddyrocks]

The dollar has been in a slow slide pretty much worldwide throughout President Bush's term. A few basic reasons; Industrial production is the U.S. is way down due to massive and growing trade inequities. The internal economy of the U.S. looks OK on the surface but as you dig, you find massive problems(Real Estate values dropping, Mortgage Defaults at all time high, Zero "real wage" growth under Bush, consumer debt at all time high, Stock market gains barely above inflation, etc etc) AND, the biggie; The U.S. debt with foreign entities is quietly choking the economy and really crushes the dollar. Will this change when Bush goes bye-bye? Somewhat but not a lot. The "crisis" level possibility is lurking out there. For example, if the dollar continues to slide the countries that hold the 100's of billions of dollars in U.S. debt could really get slammed(Saudi Arabia, China, Japan) and that could set off quite a panic and somewhat of a worldwide recession. Only time will tell!!

[VegasVic]

crisis , what crisis

there ya go 'diver that ort to put a few more points on the SET for ya .........................................

Good obsevation Mid (I always love your subtlety). You could say the same thing in Shanghai when you get out of a taxi, just substitute SSE for SET. You and your prophetic foreshadowing!

[Scott123]

The CD account give you 5.2% interest (annum) for US Dollar deposit, but give you around 0 to 1% interest in many asian currencies.

So if you are living off the interest from your cash savings, it came out about the same either way.

Edited July 9, 2007 by Scott123

[rayw]

Today ... Monday 9th July 2007 my Bank (HSBC) in Jersey quoted me to transfer pounds to Baht in Thailand at 61

i.e. 1 pound = 61 baht

They also took Baht off their online banking service because of the rapid fluctuations so the transfer could only be done with a telephone call.

Now this is a BIG drop ..... I usually just roll with these things ... but this large change knocked me off my seat.

Why ever buy Baht anywhere in the UK, offshore or not it is a rip off. Transfer your money from HSBC Jersey (I used to bank with them until they got too greedy) to your Thai bank account in STERLING and let them convert it here, today's Telegraphic transfer exchange rate at Thai Farmers Bank is 67.795. I do not need to tell you really but that means you get 6.795 extra BAHT for EVERY pound thus sending say a £1000 per month pension here it means an extra 6795 Baht in your account in other words you UK bank is ripping you off about £100 !!!!!!!!!!!! Don't let them, they will keep doing it whilst folk let them get away with it and give them their money. If you are talking of changing from sterling to Baht cash then the rate here today at Thai Farmers Bank (and pretty much the same in all Thai Banks) is 66.90975 so even that is nearly an extra 7 Baht per pound AND they do not normally charge you commission on top here like many banks do in the UK

[Neeranam]

Am I the only one here who moved to Thailand when the baht was 25/$ and has watched it plummet down to 35/$? It goes up and down, but over time it's hard to point to any sort of baht strengthening.

No you're not 'm'. When I moved here it was 25 to the $.

Some pensioners moved here when the baht was weak. Now it's back to normal, they can move elsewhere or accept it.

Actually, I came here in Aug 92 with 2000 pounds. The rate was 60 something. After a few months, it was 40.

Luckily, I went crazy and blew it all in 2 weeks down in Pat Pong and had to get a job.

I feel sorry for all those retired soldiers, who at 40 can't be bothered to get a part time job.

[usatrader]

Hmm???

** Click on image then to increase size the green 4 star icon to read properly**

Edited July 9, 2007 by usatrader

[rayw]

Yep the US dollar will continue to slide as long as you have a w*nker for president and such a mismanaged economy, would never have happened under Bill C. Yep it is NOT the strong Baht at all but why oh why do we keep hearing this, very little difference against the £ and Euro which ARE strong currencies and no not gloating just sorry for my yankee friends who have to put up with a <deleted> US economy which is hitting them in their pocket even those that did not vote for George Dubla. Get rid of Bush and his cronies and things just may start to get back to how they should be with a good dollar as well as Sterling and Euro. Sure the Baht is just a little stronger than a year ago but nothing too significant, just the weak and currently naff US dollar right now. If I was a yank I would sure be wanting some changes to my government and real quick !! No not knocking the US here at all just trying to be realistic and not bury my head in the sand like many here in Thailand seem to do until a disaster happens and then oh so full of surprises whistling.gif

It is not rocket science just look at the exchange rates now and a year ago and you will see the rogue currency is the US dollar, most the rest of the main currencies against each other and against the Baht are not a lot different. Speaks for itself.

Its amazing how many people are authorities on subjects they haven't got a clue about.

Monetary policy in the US is controlled by the Fed which is independent as is the Bank of England.

American base lending rates are at 5.25% - in the UK they are 5.75%

Inflation in America is 2.69% in the UK its 2.5%

The American dollar is at a 5 year high against the Yen.

10 years ago you could get 7.73 Hong Kong Dollars to the USD - today its 7.81

Don't apply for a job at NASA.

(by the way - if you were wondering - I'm British - not American)

You did leave out one important statistic when replying to this braindead individual, that is the unemployment rate in the U.S. is 4.4% and the real rate of unemployment in the U.K. ( the 23% on the dole rate is higher than the real rate) has now gone into double digits at approximately 10.2%, joining those other powerhouse economies in Europe with strong currencies like Germany and France that have been enjoying an unemployment rate in the double digits for some time now. Should the EURO continiue to appreciate then unemployment will continue to rise in these countries and the fate of the European Union will be sealed (I know that is stating the obvious). It seems this individual that you replied to here has shown just as much ignorance as some of the posts I have read early on in this thread. I especially like the poster who was bullish on the strong baht and said let the Thai exporters go out of business, that Thailand produces enough food to feed its people. For that particular posters edification I will point out that a good part of Thailand just exited third world circumstances a generation ago and that nearly 70% of the Thai economy is exports and tourisim. If the baht does strenghten further and remains there the longlasting effects on exports and tourism in Thailand will be devastating to its economy and the standard of living for its population, as China, Vietnam and very soon Cambodia will be more than glad to get the business and tourism that Thailand loses. By the way for disclosure purposes I am an American, and while the weak dollar hurts those Yanks living abroad it is fantastic for those of us that decided to come back to the states, it is as I have so often referred to it "the gift that keeps on giving".

Well before you accuse others of being brain dead then you should get your facts right. I have only stated fact that is available for all to see. So who is being the moron? Even your numerous uncorrected spelling mistakes indicates a less than articulate person on the face of it, but I do not know you well enough to say that of you for certainty and do not want to stoop to the low level of trading insults. Maybe your apparent inability to spell check your posting first appears to be similar to your ability of getting facts about unemployment i.e less than thorough. Anyway let's not be personal and have an adult discussion shall we buddy ?

Anyway just go and look at the UK unemployment statistics which are just as believable as the US ones. Here is an official UK Government statistical link for April 07 and I do not believe the figures have doubled to what you imply in just 2 months http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12 There it shows UK official unemployment of 5.5% as compared to your US figure of 4.4% and both are roughly based on the same criteria as far as I am aware. Note of course that does NOT mean that 95% ARE employed either in the UK or US. Suffice to say the figures are pretty much the same as the US is known to exaggerate things in their favour somewhat more even than the Brits do so both probably more like 8% in reality. Either way the facts I laid out particularly about the disastrous state of the US $ are obvious and can be substantiated by a little intelligent web browsing of many official trusted sites.

I do resent being called brain dead it is insulting and personal and not called for and like other things you state, it appears to be based on the "facts" that you dubiously presume to know about!! You obviously do not know me as it is indeed like calling Charles Atlas a weakling !! <gg> Incidentally I have many yankee friends and most agree 100% with what I said about Bush and the US economy mismanagement. They like many other intelligent US citizens are disgusted in the way their country is failing them under Geoorrge Dubbla's incompetence, these are brain alive US guys who do not bury their heads in the sand, and they resent Bush too. Vote him out ASAP.

Edited July 9, 2007 by rayw

[VegasVic]

We have signed a major contract with a large multinational. Our prices were based on 34.5 baht to the dollar. The multinational has offices around the world, but all prices are based in USD.

If the baht does rise to 30, we have two choices--complete the contract for no profit or even a loss, or cancel the contract. My gut feeling is that we will have to cancel the contract, which will mean we may have to let off 50 or 60 of our work force.

I just pray that the Thai economic gurus who were predicting 37 or even 38 baht to the dollar by next January were right. Otherwise, our company is really going to suffer, and we will have to scale back and serve only the domestic demand.

Sadly this is a scenario that has been playing out and will continue to (if indeed the baht continues to appreciate) play out over and over again in the Thai export sector. The rosy export figrures that the military regime puts out every so often do not explain that profit margins for Thai exporters have been squeezed and that many of these contracts that were filled and shipped in the first half of the year are based on a contract at a much weaker baht, and have often been shipped out at a breakeven or even a slight loss in order to keep the business as a going concern in the hopes that the situation will improve. In response to Freddyrocks, I would like to say that he did a pretty good job laying out the situation in the states, except he apparently fails to realize that inflation is and has been very low in the U.S. and his comment that "stock market gains are barely above inflation" is way off the mark. The U.S. stock market has preformed at levels multiple times higher than the 2.5% inflation rate, personally I am pretty conservative and my U.S. equity investments have been preforming at 16% + per annum over the last 5 years. The other slight misstatement that Freddy makes is "The U.S. debt with foriegn entities is quietly choking the economy and really crushing the dollar" . Now of course the dollar is indeed in a weakened state (which the U.S. government has been encouraging for years now) and yes that is partially due to trade deficits, however the "choking the economy" comment is way off the mark, the U.S. economy is more robust now than it has been in the history of the republic. In fact The U.S. not only has full employment for its citizens and legal immingrants, but it has also provided employment for the nearly 15-20 million illegal immigrants mostly streaming in from Mexico. On a final note the "real estate crisis" in the U.S. that is bandied about on the thaivisa forum regularly, in reality effects a very small percentage of U.S. homeowners(just those who bought at or near the top of the bubble 2-3 years ago). My duaghters situation is much more typical of what most U.S. homeowners have enjoyed over the last few years. We helped our daughter buy a home in Las Vegas about 5 years ago for $207,000, about a year after the purchase the boom started and it was absolutly crazy, at the height of the boom 2 1/2 years ago homes identical to my daughters in the same neighborhood were selling for $365,000-$370,000, now that things have settled down my daughters home is worth $315,000-$320,000. If she decided to sell that home today she would be able to put $110,000 cash in her pocket(after just 5 years) and pay Mom and Dad back their initial $10,000 investment (the 5% down that we bankrolled for her). The truth is that for the most part the only ones burned in this bubble were the investors buying multiple properties at the top and the foolish loan officers and their firms that approved those loans. The vast majority of U.S. homeowners are in even better shape than my daughter because they have owned their homes for much longer than 5 years. Life is good in the U.S. and so I do understand the resentment towards the U.S. in general and Bush in particilar that often rears its head here, and there are many here who are well read and understand the actual state of affairs in the U.S. and how economics and economies work, this post is more for the clueless out there who seem to think that a strong currency equates to a strong economy when of course that is far from the truth and in the case of the Euro, Pound and Baht it is just the opposite. I hope for the sake of the Thai people that the baht does moderate and weaken a little, if it were to continue in the direction that it is currently going it will indeed have rather negative long lasting repurcussions for the overall Thai economy.

[koheesti]

Will the anti-Bushies please stop trying to hijack the thread and please keep it on topic?

[Jingthing]

Life is good in the U.S. and so I do understand the resentment towards the U.S. in general and Bush in particilar that often rears its head here

I don't think you understand. That sounds like Bush propaganda. "They hate us because of our freedoms." BS.

People hate America because we have been arrogant. Of course, when the arrogant bully trips, loses yet another war, and worse an unjust war based on lies, doesn't take care of its own people, carries ridiculous federal deficits, stops producing real things and relies instead on slave labor from China and Mexico, they smell a declining empire, and of course, they are dancing.

Well, all empires do decline, but along the way, there are still cycles, and sometimes it can take hundreds of years to totally decline. So don't write off America yet, or the dollar, and we are soon to be rid of that embarrassing, incompetent, arrogant albatross, Bush. And for happy though that I will surely do a Yankee jig! (He can't be gone soon enough.) If we had a parliamentary system Bush would be long gone already. He has really lost all credibility and he has deeply damaged America.

So, I do think America is going to be regenerated in 2008 and I do see the world confidence and the dollar improving over time. Because the US still does indeed have good fundamentals.

Edited July 9, 2007 by Jingthing

[Carmine6]

baht was fixed to the $ in my early days ,

but that's worth nothing unless you can produce purchasing power figures ??

LOL, why do you have to be so practical? How much was a bowl of noodle soup back then by the way?

[aaaaaa]

read this thread, and perhaps I missed, but I think there was nothing said here about: WHEN do the specialists expect it to be 30 Baht per 1$ ? such info could help I think...

[rayw]

Yep the US dollar will continue to slide as long as you have a w*nker for president and such a mismanaged economy, would never have happened under Bill C. Yep it is NOT the strong Baht at all but why oh why do we keep hearing this, very little difference against the £ and Euro which ARE strong currencies and no not gloating just sorry for my yankee friends who have to put up with a &lt;deleted&gt; US economy which is hitting them in their pocket even those that did not vote for George Dubla. Get rid of Bush and his cronies and things just may start to get back to how they should be with a good dollar as well as Sterling and Euro. Sure the Baht is just a little stronger than a year ago but nothing too significant, just the weak and currently naff US dollar right now. If I was a yank I would sure be wanting some changes to my government and real quick !! No not knocking the US here at all just trying to be realistic and not bury my head in the sand like many here in Thailand seem to do until a disaster happens and then oh so full of surprises whistling.gif

It is not rocket science just look at the exchange rates now and a year ago and you will see the rogue currency is the US dollar, most the rest of the main currencies against each other and against the Baht are not a lot different. Speaks for itself.

Its amazing how many people are authorities on subjects they haven't got a clue about.

Monetary policy in the US is controlled by the Fed which is independent as is the Bank of England.

American base lending rates are at 5.25% - in the UK they are 5.75%

Inflation in America is 2.69% in the UK its 2.5%

The American dollar is at a 5 year high against the Yen.

10 years ago you could get 7.73 Hong Kong Dollars to the USD - today its 7.81

Don't apply for a job at NASA.

(by the way - if you were wondering - I'm British - not American)

You did leave out one important statistic when replying to this braindead individual, that is the unemployment rate in the U.S. is 4.4% and the real rate of unemployment in the U.K. ( the 23% on the dole rate is higher than the real rate) has now gone into double digits at approximately 10.2%, joining those other powerhouse economies in Europe with strong currencies like Germany and France that have been enjoying an unemployment rate in the double digits for some time now. Should the EURO continiue to appreciate then unemployment will continue to rise in these countries and the fate of the European Union will be sealed (I know that is stating the obvious). It seems this individual that you replied to here has shown just as much ignorance as some of the posts I have read early on in this thread. I especially like the poster who was bullish on the strong baht and said let the Thai exporters go out of business, that Thailand produces enough food to feed its people. For that particular posters edification I will point out that a good part of Thailand just exited third world circumstances a generation ago and that nearly 70% of the Thai economy is exports and tourisim. If the baht does strenghten further and remains there the longlasting effects on exports and tourism in Thailand will be devastating to its economy and the standard of living for its population, as China, Vietnam and very soon Cambodia will be more than glad to get the business and tourism that Thailand loses. By the way for disclosure purposes I am an American, and while the weak dollar hurts those Yanks living abroad it is fantastic for those of us that decided to come back to the states, it is as I have so often referred to it "the gift that keeps on giving".

Well before you accuse others of being brain dead then you should get your facts right. I have only stated fact that is available for all to see. So who is being the moron? Even your numerous uncorrected spelling mistakes indicates a less than articulate person on the face of it, but I do not know you well enough to say that of you for certainty and do not want to stoop to the low level of trading insults. Maybe your apparent inability to spell check your posting first appears to be similar to your ability of getting facts about unemployment i.e less than thorough. Anyway let's not be personal and have an adult discussion shall we buddy ?

Anyway just go and look at the UK unemployment statistics which are just as believable as the US ones. Here is an official UK Government statistical link for April 07 and I do not believe the figures have doubled to what you imply in just 2 months http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12 There it shows UK official unemployment of 5.5% as compared to your US figure of 4.4% and both are roughly based on the same criteria as far as I am aware. Note of course that does NOT mean that 95% ARE employed either in the UK or US. Suffice to say the figures are pretty much the same as the US is known to exaggerate things in their favour somewhat more even than the Brits do so both probably more like 8% in reality. Either way the facts I laid out particularly about the disastrous state of the US $ are obvious and can be substantiated by a little intelligent web browsing of many official trusted sites.

I do resent being called brain dead it is insulting and personal and not called for and like other things you state, it appears to be based on the "facts" that you dubiously presume to know about!! You obviously do not know me as it is indeed like calling Charles Atlas a weakling !! <gg> Incidentally I have many yankee friends and most agree 100% with what I said about Bush and the US economy mismanagement. They like many other intelligent US citizens are disgusted in the way their country is failing them under Geoorrge Dubbla's incompetence, these are brain alive US guys who do not bury their heads in the sand, and they resent Bush too. Vote him out ASAP.

Lets see you call the U.S. president a &lt;deleted&gt;, and yet you claim to not want to lower yourself to insults? You also gloat over a strong pound and yet you claim to have some working knowledge of economics? I have seen those same stats that you posted and they are woefully understated, the fact is that 24% of your countrymen are on the dole and while some are unable to work many are just too lazy to work, but when those folks are taken out of the equation the real unemployment rate in the U.K. is about 10% and inflation is rising (hence the recent rate hike). I may miss a few keystrokes here or there, but then again we Americans are not as anal as you brits are about that sort of thing! Braindead may have been a bit strong, perhaps I should have been more politically correct and said terribly misinformed, in any event try and keep a stiff upper lip ther gov!

The same is true of the USA too. The unemployment figures are quoted using similar criteria. So you also have lazy folk unwilling to work and from what I have seen over in the states just as many as in the UK and other places in the west, far worse here in LOS though from looking around. Inflation is on the rise, albeit slowly, in the UK as the economy is buoyant and a little over active maybe, the US economy is just dead as it was in the UK back in the 80's and that is why inflation is low and businesses are going down. We had the same in the UK some years ago with similar economic policy and a naff arrogant warmongering leader full of talk but no good at running a good economy, but we are not talking about her as she is old history now. Nothing wrong with the USA that a change of Government and leader wont put right at least to a large extent. It certainly recovered our UK economy when we saw sense and changed our government, no way are they perfect but they have brought us a much admired economy over the past few years similar to the better economy Bill C brought to the USA some years back. This all makes a change from our past poor performances in the 80's and early 90's when the pound was weak like the dollar is now and all a direct result of poor government excessive right wing policies. Clinton and Blair's third way has proved it works as for a start it accepts capital and labour equally and respects that. Extreme right and left just do not and never will work in anything but the very short term and then only for the minority. Alas nothing is 100% in life but we should strive for the lesser of all evils really and therefore avoid extremes.

Anyway back to the thread, and that is quite simply the US Dollar is bloody weak right now and US Government policy is directly to blame. That is not up for debate it is a fact. So nothing more to add. Thanks for your input and I truly hope the US economy does improve for you all as I am not a US basher at all just a Bush basher and a realist.

[Carmine6]

US GDP in Current dollars and constant 2000 dollars. Per the US Dept. of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Website

Current $ 2000 $

1980 2,790 5,162

1981 3,128 5,292

1982 3,255 5,189

1983 3,537 5,424

1984 3,933 5,814

1985 4,220 6,054

1986 4,463 6,264

1987 4,740 6,475

1988 5,104 6,743

1989 5,484 6,981

1990 5,803 7,113

1991 5,996 7,101

1992 6,338 7,337

1993 6,657 7,533

1994 7,072 7,836

1995 7,398 8,032

1996 7,817 8,329

1997 8,304 8,704

1998 8,747 9,067

1999 9,268 9,470

2000 9,817 9,817

2001 10,128 9,891

2002 10,470 10,049

2003 10,961 10,301

2004 11,713 10,704

2005 12,456 11,049

2006 13,247 11,415

[highdiver]

Question is: When will China implode?

It won't.

It's not about single countries or economies anymore in this Global Economy.

IF the US would collapse, or China, or Europe, the whole world would collapse, or, in your words 'implode'.

Corrections? Decline? Yes, once in a while, but an implosion? NO.

LaoPo

you are 100% right. its a global game. and thailand is a very small player.

[astral]

The reality is not as bad as the hipe.

[VegasVic]

US GDP in Current dollars and constant 2000 dollars. Per the US Dept. of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Website

Current $ 2000 $

1980 2,790 5,162

1981 3,128 5,292

1982 3,255 5,189

1983 3,537 5,424

1984 3,933 5,814

1985 4,220 6,054

1986 4,463 6,264

1987 4,740 6,475

1988 5,104 6,743

1989 5,484 6,981

1990 5,803 7,113

1991 5,996 7,101

1992 6,338 7,337

1993 6,657 7,533

1994 7,072 7,836

1995 7,398 8,032

1996 7,817 8,329

1997 8,304 8,704

1998 8,747 9,067

1999 9,268 9,470

2000 9,817 9,817

2001 10,128 9,891

2002 10,470 10,049

2003 10,961 10,301

2004 11,713 10,704

2005 12,456 11,049

2006 13,247 11,415

Thanks carmine, I just got back from the golf course and was checking in on my new favorite forum here and I see that my brittish friend still doesn't get it. There is an old saying in the American west where I reside and that is "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink", that is unless the drink is koolade then of course my brittish friend would not leave the trough. Its funny how people will let their particular political and social stances get in the way of them viewing the actual facts, and as we see the facts that you were so good to post here are that in the 8 years of clintons reign the GDP went from 6,657 to 9,817 an increase of 3,160 trillion, while in just 6 years under g. bush the GDP went from 9,817 to 13,247 an increase in 3,430 trillion. The facts would indicate that in just 6 years under Mr. Bush the U.S. economy has grown by more than the entire 8 years of Mr. Clinton. Now when you add in the fact that the U.S. economy lept into a recession in Aug. 2000, and Bush took office in Jan. 2001 then the Bush miricle is even more amazing considering that he inherited a recession from clinton, but lets not stop there 8 months after Bush took the oath of office the U.S. was attacked on 9/11/01 by radical muslim terrorists, an attack that might crumble the economy of lesser country but Mr. Bush enacted tax cuts that helped get the U.S. economy back on track. Now here we are in the summer of 2007 with a resilient and booming U.S. economy, low inflation, low unemlpoyment, low interest rates and record levels in every single U.S. stock market average except the NASDAQ which recently marked a new high since the 2000 crash. Now my liberal friend from across the pond will likely dispute your figures carmine, but then again that darned koolade does have a powerful effect, so we may just have to humor him until he can kick the koolade habit.

[PeaceBlondie]

The reality is not as bad as the hipe.

The reality is 34.02 to the dollar, and when I converted 25,000 baht a few days ago, the rate was 33.92, surely the lowest in the 4.4 years I've been here. Sure enough, that's not 30, and the news article may not have even guessed when if ever the rate might get close to 30.

[ray23]

Good point when I bring in money via the ATM I always get a rate highrer then what is posted, always figured it was just timing. However on my last few this month it was under 34.

[jumnien]

The dhamma is good in the beginning, good in the middle, and good in the end. Likewise, Thailand was a wonderful place to live at 25/$, good at 45/$ and absolutely fantastic at 34.5/$! The certainty in life is that rates change.

[delta53]

Weak dollar!

That means:

It's time to buy airplanes!!

Boeing is open for business!!!

[Naam]

The dhamma is good in the beginning, good in the middle, and good in the end. Likewise, Thailand was a wonderful place to live at 25/$, good at 45/$ and absolutely fantastic at 34.5/$! The certainty in life is that rates change.

i tend to second that opinion although i don't live in Thailand but in my home which is located in Thailand

[ray23]

Lets see the tock market has a huge cash flow, long term investors do you really think so I doubt it. Hedge finds probably and what happens when they take the profits any guesses, I doubt they are doing this out of the goodness of thier hearts.

From todays Nation:

BOT eases rules for hedging

Baht hits 10-year high against dollar

The Bank of Thailand has further relaxed the capital-control requirement, even as the baht further appreciated to a new 10-year high above the Bt34/US dollar level due to continued inflows to the stock market.

The central bank yesterday decided to allow non-residents with non-speculative transactions in Thailand to conduct hedging or sell-buy swaps.

The relaxation of the 30-per-cent reserve requirement covers their baht-denominated transactions with local financial institutions.

The BOT expects the move will end the recent volatility and narrow the difference in the baht levels between the onshore and offshore markets.

The baht continued to rise against the dollar yesterday, breaking another 10-year record at Bt33.77-Bt33.78, buoyed largely by foreign inflows.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand, meanwhile, continued to ride the bull, and a leading broker forecast that the SET Index could touch the 1,000 mark in the next 12 months.

Making the prediction, Ayudhya Securities said in its report that the stock market had turned "bullish".

The index is likely to test the psychological barrier of 930 to 1,000 points over the next 12 months, thanks largely to the expected economic recovery during the second and third quarters this year.

The SET added 11.81 points to close at 844.19, after touching the resistance point of 850 in the afternoon session.

The BOT said non-residents (NR) wanting to hedge must have underlying transactions and offshore foreign-exchange hedging outstanding before December 19 last year, the day the central bank introduced the withholding reserve requirement of 30 per cent.

NRs must seek BOT approval between July 16 and August 17. Requests received after the deadline will be denied.

BOT director Suchart Sak-kankosone said the relaxation was aimed at lowering volatility of the baht and the swap rate in the offshore market, and reducing non-residents' hedging transaction costs in the offshore market. He expects the gap between the baht's onshore and offshore rates to narrow.

He said the volatility in the two markets - the gap jumped from Bt1.50 to Bt3 at one point - was undesirable for the central bank.

"We don't want to see baht volatility in the offshore market because it has had a psychological effect on exporters who panicked and quoted prices of export goods relying on the offshore baht," he said after a meeting with dealers from local and foreign banks.

The meeting was held because several non-residents who had baht transactions outside Thailand have asked for permission from the central bank on whether they can hedge in the Thai market, which costs less than the offshore market. Since the withholding reserve requirement was introduced, they have had to incur huge costs of hedging in the foreign market due to low baht supply.

The central bank believes that the baht in the offshore market will probably become weaker, as NRs will be under less pressure to seek the currency offshore.

A dealer from a foreign bank said she did not know whether the relaxation would affect the onshore baht level, but the gap between the two markets was likely to be reduced.

Each NR will be able to shift the hedging transaction only after presenting reliable proof, such as the deal ticket, and getting the BOT's approval.

Meanwhile, Industry Ministry permanent secretary Chakramon Phasukavanich said yesterday that there was little chance of the baht weakening against the greenback, given the continued inflows to the stock market as well as growing export income and foreign direct investment.

He said the likelihood of a general election at the end of the year could also boost investor confidence and consequently lead to further appreciation of the baht.

As a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, which is in charge of setting the policy interest rate, Chakramon said the policy rate at 3.5 per cent was probably at its bottom.

"If the rate is to be cut further, it would be to help the economy, not to stem the baht's appreciation," he said, adding, "If the rate is further cut, it could affect savers in general." The MPC will convene again on July 18.

Meanwhile, the managing director of Trinity Securities, Kampanart Lohacharoenvanich, said the stock index is likely to soar to 1,600 in two years. However, he said he did not think the SET would hit 1,000 points this year, based on the performance of listed companies.

"There may also be corrections in the next one or two weeks," he warned.

But Kampanart believes the SET in the long term could rise fivefold, as the stock market had not performed as well as neighbouring countries since the economic crisis. For instance, the stock market in China has risen four times, while the Indonesian market has increased by three to four times.

Anoma Srisukkasem,

Somreudi Banchongduang

The Nation

[surinmike]

finally the canadian dollar hits 30 year highs againest the yank buck and the baht keeps pace.......must be sendind down too much cash to the wife in Surin......yikes,,,

[Carmine6]

Found a nice source for some overview stats on Thailands economy and others.

Link to Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade - compilation of Thailand Stats

Very significant growth in PPP and real GDP in the last 5 years. Surprising that exports of goods and services goes from 64% of GDP in 2002 to about 74% in 2006.

thai_factsheet.pdf