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Thai Baht May Hit 30 To The Us Dollar


george

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Is it just me, or is anyone else confused as to why the Baht (in a 3rd rate economy), would be about even with Taiwan's currency. Taiwans economy is light years ahead of Thailand..... Anyone see a conspiracy here???

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IMHO it's much more that the Dollar is weak rather than the Baht is strong. From a British point of view there's been little change vis-a-vis the Baht/Pound rate. (That's not gloating, BTW, simply a view of the situation)

Incorrect! Thb *is* strong.

If you were right and it was just the dollar that was weak then, given sterling's recent advances and interest rate differentials, we should be seeing in the mid 70's. But not so...

Cable, despite reaching record highs against the USD in the last week, has fallen comparatively y/y against thb.

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437 users now reading this topic. Including one angry retired Yank....

Coming back to the topic-head "..Baht may hit 30 to the US$"

Maybe I'm not the only one wondering about the strange actions [and NON-actions] of the BOT in the past months...maybe, just maybe, their hands are tightened by ropes, by higher forces than we even can imagine...

These times are very uncertain and everyone (so I imagine) is deadly afraid to take drastic steps, trying to avoid 'lose of face', their jobs or even more...who knows?

Not me.

LaoPo :o

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Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

Excuse me? Not sure what you mean by that :o - I was simply pointing out that the Dollar has dropped rather than the Baht having strengthened. The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

No, it is sitting around 64 at the present, as I wired money over from a sterling account last month and that was the rate given, so it is not just the dollar that is weakening the pound has also fallen in stregnth. Last year, was getting about 71 - 73 when wiring money over, so ithe difference is noticeable.

I remember about 6 years ago it actually reached 80 baht - 1 GBP. Thats about the current exchange rate today plus a nice plate of Khow mun gaii ! :D

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The way I see it, the question is what currency isn't appreciating against the greenback?

For example, here's a snapshot of current mid-market rates:

USD-THB: 31.6796

USD-JPY: 123.415

I agree that the dollar is generally getting weaker (and the US government is promoting the fall especially against the Yuan), but it isn't across the board.

The Yen has been falling due to the continuing carry trade. People are borrowing at low rates in Yen, selling the yen to buy Aussie or NZ or even US currency, and then investing at higher rates so they gain from the spread.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=U...mp;c=usdthb%3Dx

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Yep the US dollar will continue to slide as long as you have a w*nker for president and such a mismanaged economy, would never have happened under Bill C. Yep it is NOT the strong Baht at all but why oh why do we keep hearing this, very little difference against the £ and Euro which ARE strong currencies and no not gloating just sorry for my yankee friends who have to put up with a <deleted> US economy which is hitting them in their pocket even those that did not vote for George Dubla. Get rid of Bush and his cronies and things just may start to get back to how they should be with a good dollar as well as Sterling and Euro. Sure the Baht is just a little stronger than a year ago but nothing too significant, just the weak and currently naff US dollar right now. If I was a yank I would sure be wanting some changes to my government and real quick !! No not knocking the US here at all just trying to be realistic and not bury my head in the sand like many here in Thailand seem to do until a disaster happens and then oh so full of surprises whistling.gif

It is not rocket science just look at the exchange rates now and a year ago and you will see the rogue currency is the US dollar, most the rest of the main currencies against each other and against the Baht are not a lot different. Speaks for itself.

Its amazing how many people are authorities on subjects they haven't got a clue about.

Monetary policy in the US is controlled by the Fed which is independent as is the Bank of England.

American base lending rates are at 5.25% - in the UK they are 5.75%

Inflation in America is 2.69% in the UK its 2.5%

The American dollar is at a 5 year high against the Yen.

10 years ago you could get 7.73 Hong Kong Dollars to the USD - today its 7.81

Don't apply for a job at NASA.

(by the way - if you were wondering - I'm British - not American)

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Yep the US dollar will continue to slide as long as you have a w*nker for president and such a mismanaged economy, would never have happened under Bill C. Yep it is NOT the strong Baht at all but why oh why do we keep hearing this, very little difference against the £ and Euro which ARE strong currencies and no not gloating just sorry for my yankee friends who have to put up with a <deleted> US economy which is hitting them in their pocket even those that did not vote for George Dubla. Get rid of Bush and his cronies and things just may start to get back to how they should be with a good dollar as well as Sterling and Euro. Sure the Baht is just a little stronger than a year ago but nothing too significant, just the weak and currently naff US dollar right now. If I was a yank I would sure be wanting some changes to my government and real quick !! No not knocking the US here at all just trying to be realistic and not bury my head in the sand like many here in Thailand seem to do until a disaster happens and then oh so full of surprises whistling.gif

It is not rocket science just look at the exchange rates now and a year ago and you will see the rogue currency is the US dollar, most the rest of the main currencies against each other and against the Baht are not a lot different. Speaks for itself.

Its amazing how many people are authorities on subjects they haven't got a clue about.

Monetary policy in the US is controlled by the Fed which is independent as is the Bank of England.

American base lending rates are at 5.25% - in the UK they are 5.75%

Inflation in America is 2.69% in the UK its 2.5%

The American dollar is at a 5 year high against the Yen.

10 years ago you could get 7.73 Hong Kong Dollars to the USD - today its 7.81

Don't apply for a job at NASA.

(by the way - if you were wondering - I'm British - not American)

Sorry but wrong I worked many years in Foreign Exchange banking in a London Forex dealing room and studied economics too. Okay many years ago now but even so the basic knowledge is still applicable today

What you quote is true but not the point, you are quoting the exceptions rather the general actual state of affairs. The economy is mostly affected by Government policy the central bank then tries to control the currency rates as best it sees fit within the confines of Government current policies. they do that by by setting bank rate and intervening in some cases to support its currency or the opposite if too strong. I know too that the Yen has had problems due to an over blown economy, no current knowledge on the Hong Kong dollar but lets face it ten years ago it was still a western based economy and not part of China, and the currency di go a lot weaker after the colony was taken back into Chinese control. I was talking of the other major western currencies particularly the Euro and the UK Pound, also look at other fairly stable western currencies like the Aus $ for example the same US$ slide can be seen there too. So the facts speak for themselves it is NOT so much a strong Baht but a very weak US $ that is the cause of this phenomena. So if Bush's regime is not to blame what is then, please tell me unless you still do not believe it is the dollar that is weak ???

Inflation and Bank Rate are inter related and have a direct affect on the strength of a currency but there are other factors too like confidence in the currency and under Bush this is understandably low and this is one of several reasons why the Dollar is weak. Incidentally inflation can be low because the economy of country is dead and nobody is buying much. By dropping lending rates thsi encourages people to spend and get the economy moving but then too much and inflation gets rampant. the underlying problem is the managing of the economy by the government's policies and a lot to do with restoring confidence too. The economy in the US has been mismanaged for some years now and don't believe me just read the serious independent ecomonic press and real expert view. No I am not an expert but have some basis to express my view. Oh please also do not get a job at NASA

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Maybe I'm not the only one wondering about the strange actions [and NON-actions] of the BOT in the past months...maybe, just maybe, their hands are tightened by ropes, by higher forces than we even can imagine...

No the BOT can't do anything anymore. They tried it before and spend almost 30 Billion US$ to stabilize the baht to 35 (read recent threads), they lost and if they would continue this politics they would loose all there reserves. Hard time for Thailand, you can't beat Millions of new rich chinese trying to invest there money outside china because they don't trust there government.

Thailand is only a helpless people in the middle of a much bigger game.

Question is: When will China implode?

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Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

Excuse me? Not sure what you mean by that :D - I was simply pointing out that the Dollar has dropped rather than the Baht having strengthened. The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

I am a kiwi, returning to Thailand next Monday, 16th.

:D

NZ dollar is revalueing even more than the Baht.

I love it, more bucks to spend on my trips, my 3rd to Thailand this year.



"I'M LOVING IT"



as MacDonalds say.

Cheeeeers :o and Beeeeers, :D people.

Kiwi Pete

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Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

Excuse me? Not sure what you mean by that :D - I was simply pointing out that the Dollar has dropped rather than the Baht having strengthened. The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

I am a kiwi, returning to Thailand next Monday, 16th.

:D

NZ dollar is revalueing even more than the Baht.

I love it, more bucks to spend on my trips, my 3rd to Thailand this year.

"I'M LOVING IT"



as MacDonalds say.

Cheeeeers :o and Beeeeers, :D people.

Kiwi Pete

Enjoy your 1 hour in the sun, kiwi man.

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"I remember about 6 years ago it actually reached 80 baht - 1 GBP. Thats about the current exchange rate today plus a nice plate of Khow mun gaii ."

Somewhere, I have filed away a receipt from a bank in Khon Kaen. I filed it away meaning to frame it sometime.

I think it was in March 1998 that I handed over some twenty-pound notes and they gave me 1760 for each one.

The receipt shows that the "buy notes" rate was 88 bahts for a pound.

So the other rates would have been a touch higher.

That week I stopped drinking imported Tetlys and started adapting my palate to the locally-brewed Chang.

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Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

Excuse me? Not sure what you mean by that :o - I was simply pointing out that the Dollar has dropped rather than the Baht having strengthened. The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

No, it is sitting around 64 at the present, as I wired money over from a sterling account last month and that was the rate given, so it is not just the dollar that is weakening the pound has also fallen in stregnth. Last year, was getting about 71 - 73 when wiring money over, so ithe difference is noticeable.

You have either been taken for a ride by your bank, or (more likely) you didn't give the right instruction and you ended up with the offshore rate instead of the onshore rate. See the pinned thread in the business/economy forum for details about this and how to get the onshore rate in future

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1. The economy is mostly affected by Government policy the central bank then tries to control the currency rates as best it sees fit within the confines of Government current policies. they do that by by setting bank rate and intervening in some cases to support its currency or the opposite if too strong.

2. I know too that the Yen has had problems due to an over blown economy,

3. no current knowledge on the Hong Kong dollar but lets face it ten years ago it was still a western based economy and not part of China, and the currency di go a lot weaker after the colony was taken back into Chinese control.

4. So the facts speak for themselves it is NOT so much a strong Baht but a very weak US $ that is the cause of this phenomena. So if Bush's regime is not to blame what is then, please tell me unless you still do not believe it is the dollar that is weak ???

5. The economy in the US has been mismanaged for some years now and don't believe me just read the serious independent ecomonic press and real expert view. No I am not an expert but have some basis to express my view.

Interesting read 'rayw'.

1. I agree. Any Central Bank [also BOT] is trying to correct what the government did....or not. They're always 'forced' to dance with the present government(s) AFTER the steps taken by the same government...

2. Japanese Yen: That's a story in itself. Many experts believe that the Yen is heavily under-valued by as much as 50% ! We'll see, but the present low Yen could have a completely different look in the middle term, from now. I estimate between 1-3 years from now.

3. Hong Kong Dollar: It was not so much the swap in 1997 from Britain to the mainland of China, but HK mainly suffered from the crisis (started in Thailand) in '97 and SARS in later years. HK had to re-develop itself from a production 'state' into a service, banking & trading center. They did, quite successfully I think.

I know for a fact that Beijing Hi-So people bought/invested heavily in HK -prior- to the 'takeover in '97, especially in the real estate market !

4. I don't think it's just the present US Administration, doing wrong; it have been many Administrations before, too. The US is an over-consuming and under-performing saving nation. That's the biggest problem.

5. I -partly- agree because it's not just since years but decades.

Please allow me to make a special comment related to the latter #4 and #5:

The -once- powerful US car manufacturers lost the complete world-market because of mis-management and poor future views. The EU and Japanese took control and nowadays you hardly see any -original- US cars on the roads, elsewhere in the world.

Yes, there were take-overs and mergers, but were they successful ?

Hmmm...I see enormous advertising and promotion in China for US brands: Chrysler (still Daimler group), Buick and such but the majority of cars in China are still either EU- or Japanese brands, [mostly -joint venture- built in China) apart from local brand cars.

Hopefully the the US learned a lesson.

Sorry for being off-topic a bit, but it's $-related... :o

LaoPo

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Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

Excuse me? Not sure what you mean by that :o - I was simply pointing out that the Dollar has dropped rather than the Baht having strengthened. The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

No, it is sitting around 64 at the present, as I wired money over from a sterling account last month and that was the rate given, so it is not just the dollar that is weakening the pound has also fallen in stregnth. Last year, was getting about 71 - 73 when wiring money over, so ithe difference is noticeable.

You have either been taken for a ride by your bank, or (more likely) you didn't give the right instruction and you ended up with the offshore rate instead of the onshore rate. See the pinned thread in the business/economy forum for details about this and how to get the onshore rate in future

glad my pension isnt in dollars, 1997 for 2 hours there were 102 baht to the uk pound ,2 month before that there were 38baht :D

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Question is: When will China implode?

It won't.

It's not about single countries or economies anymore in this Global Economy.

IF the US would collapse, or China, or Europe, the whole world would collapse, or, in your words 'implode'.

Corrections? Decline? Yes, once in a while, but an implosion? NO.

LaoPo

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The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

But, if you look to this time LAST year, you will see that the £ got you 76-78 Baht. Quite an apprceciation of the Baht

But, i also feel you weren't gloating.............its just that some people feel sensitive about the "Darling Dollar"

Maybe if a few more countries started trading in other major currencies then there wouldnt be so much emphasis on the $ globally

Penkoprod

Misquoting rates again just gives the wrong story. Lets ONLY talk of the middle exchange rates. Never been 76 - 78 Baht to £ last year only maybe the rate to sell Baht bank notes (cash) and buy back sterling and likely with a thieving British bank too who are lets be honest licensed robbers of unsuspecting tourists. It was also never 64 this year either only for buying Thai Baht, in fact I heard of 62 in the UK for buying Baht cash from one UK bank and that is a total scandal.

Today's rounded middle rates for Baht are US$ = 33.8, £ = 68.1, Eur = 46.7, Can $ = 32.3 and Aus $ = 28.1

For last year on 7th July the same rounded mid rates were US$ 37.9, £ = 69.6, Eur = 48.6, Can $ = 34.2, Aus $ = 28.4

So against the Thai Baht over the past year the US$ has depreciated by nearly 10.8% , £ by 2.6%, Eur by 3.9%, Can $ by 5.5% and the Aus $ by just 1%. These are factual figures anyone can check. So which of those currencies is behaving more like a banana republic ?? No prizes for guessing that one !!. Time to say goodbye George Dubbla me thinks as he is incompetent at running a great and hugely wealthy country like the USA which should not see it's currency collapse like a banana republic, intolerable really. True as somebody stated the HK $ depreciated just a little more than the US dollar and the Yen considerably more as they do have serious problems there with the economy. Worth noting that the Yen is very much dependent on the US economy where much of its trade is with. Generally it is wrong though to just compare currency rates to a small economy like Thailand where the currency is much more volatile normally, best to compare the US$ to the other major currencies like the Euro and £ and to the Chinese now of course and in all cases you see this massive depreciation of the US$, these are all facts not up for debate ... QED!!

Rates courtesy of Kasikorn Bank's excellent web page. Keep up with the true current and past forex rates here http://www.kasikornbank.com/GlobalHome/EN/..._fx/rate_fx.jsp

And a solid tip given many times here NEVER transfer money from the UK in Baht you will be simply robbed by the thieving UK banks, send it in sterling where the much more honest Thai banks will give you a fair and honest rate that is still profitable to them without stealing from you. Same with cash change it here in Thailand when arriving and leaving and NEVER in the rip off UK. Same likely true of Euroland, Oz, Canada and USA too.

Edited by rayw
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Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

Excuse me? Not sure what you mean by that :D - I was simply pointing out that the Dollar has dropped rather than the Baht having strengthened. The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

Relax, someone who uses a pic of an old gay brit actor cannot be serious :o ...can they.

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437 users now reading this topic. Including one angry retired Yank....

well canadian $$ is raising so why would i care if the yanks get less padthai for their buck???LOL

I think thats what happens when you elect/let win a moron for president

he hehehe just dawn on me might not be too long before he is called el presidente LOL

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For the first two years of my time in Thailand, i was paid in dollars converted to Baht. I took a bit of a pounding. At the start of this year I was giving the option of being paid in baht, with my boss taking on the risk. I bit his hands off.

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This "currency cleansing" is problematic. The Baht via the dollar would appear to be rising not quite inline with other regional currencies.

That aside, any opinion on just who is making money here? We can certainly see who is losing money in the short term.

Well I seem to be making money, actually. About 80% of my "liquid" retirement dollars are invested in a high risk overseas mutual fund (like I'd really keep the money in the US, with the dollar's daily lower value). This mutual fund is going gangbusters at present, and so my guess is that yes, my good return is helping to fuel the problem. An element of this may actually look like what happened in the housing market in the USA. Inverstors poured money in without regard to reality, fueling ever higher housing costs. No worries, so long as good returns were had!

Over time, however, better returns were found elsewhere, and so the money left the housing sector. Leaving lots of people who'd bought overpriced mortgages holding the bag.

Kinda looks like the same thing could be happening with the Thai economy.

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Quite fortunately I have had a good long surplus run. I calculated my retirement needs at 25 baht to the dollar. After all these years of enjoying the exchange rate, I'm certainly disappointed but it's not like I didn't plan for it. My surplus is certainly not as good as it was. I don't look for the dollar to strengthen anytime soon because the US is enjoying the HUGE discount on foreign debt.

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A An interesting thing, is that the American still there are not seeing any of this doom and gloom. In asking friends that live ther it's business as usual. They don't see the financial doom that everyone else does. Those that are not retired have jobs earn money and go about living life.

Want to know why they are not reacting it's because they are not being affected by this.

I never gave a thought to a rate of exchange my entire working life in the states. this is something that have learned since being here. It directly effects those of of us living here, but doesn't seem to even being noticed by those still living in the states.

For me when I was there a expected a recession of some sorts about every ten years. All of sudden over priced homes were not selling anymore, people stopped buying. You just wauted fro the next housing boom and sold then.

I'm not really convienced that the American government has much incentive to increase the value of the dollar, remeber now ther goods cost less when being exported. Seems to have worked pretty good for the Chinese for amny years now. American seem to be working at that is what they notice.

None io of this makes me a happy camper with the value of my money going down, but in the end what does that really mean to me. I've been here for five years, made my major purchaes, still have the equivlant of a 100K a month coming in. It drops to 25 well I save less money each month. maybe put of any other major purchase I might have made.

Coming here with three suitcases I have spent consistently one mill a year, getting thing set up and building a lifestyle that I want. I have all that I need and most of what I want. So I don't have to do that anymore. All that money was spent right here in Udon, which has about 2000 farrangs living in it these days. So what is going to happen if it goes to 25, well the guys will tighten thier belts a bit and that money won't be going into the local economy as it has. But we will live just fine.

I would not recommend anyone to come here and try to do what I have done starting with the baht at 25. Many times i have heard well it wa was 25, yes it was. However, yuo didn't spend 2 mill for a average house in Udon either, fuel was not 30 baht a litter. Land was no 300 K and up a Rai. Many things would make it very difficult for a newbie to make it at 25. The answer don't retire here, retire where your money goes further.

But worse then that, the guy who works construction for 180 baht a day and takes care of his family, what has he gained for all of this? Very little I would think. So it is hard to imagine how the average Thai is really going to benefit from this. I can see the Bangkok elite doing pretty good are they going to pass that down, can't see that have ever done so in the past.

I'm going to be just fine, not sure about my Thai Neighbors and friends. Remember it's not just the value of the baht in the equation there is also inflation. I think most of us are in a better position to deal with that then the average Thai. I hope I'm worng but I think there may be some tough times coming for them.

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Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

Excuse me? Not sure what you mean by that :o - I was simply pointing out that the Dollar has dropped rather than the Baht having strengthened. The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

No, it is sitting around 64 at the present, as I wired money over from a sterling account last month and that was the rate given, so it is not just the dollar that is weakening the pound has also fallen in stregnth. Last year, was getting about 71 - 73 when wiring money over, so ithe difference is noticeable.

That would be the rate from the UK but I consistently get between 67 -69 from Thai ATMs with my UK Bank debit card...(Nationwide) with no charge.

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Yep the US dollar will continue to slide as long as you have a w*nker for president and such a mismanaged economy, would never have happened under Bill C. Yep it is NOT the strong Baht at all but why oh why do we keep hearing this, very little difference against the £ and Euro which ARE strong currencies and no not gloating just sorry for my yankee friends who have to put up with a <deleted> US economy which is hitting them in their pocket even those that did not vote for George Dubla. Get rid of Bush and his cronies and things just may start to get back to how they should be with a good dollar as well as Sterling and Euro. Sure the Baht is just a little stronger than a year ago but nothing too significant, just the weak and currently naff US dollar right now. If I was a yank I would sure be wanting some changes to my government and real quick !! No not knocking the US here at all just trying to be realistic and not bury my head in the sand like many here in Thailand seem to do until a disaster happens and then oh so full of surprises whistling.gif

It is not rocket science just look at the exchange rates now and a year ago and you will see the rogue currency is the US dollar, most the rest of the main currencies against each other and against the Baht are not a lot different. Speaks for itself.

Its amazing how many people are authorities on subjects they haven't got a clue about.

Monetary policy in the US is controlled by the Fed which is independent as is the Bank of England.

American base lending rates are at 5.25% - in the UK they are 5.75%

Inflation in America is 2.69% in the UK its 2.5%

The American dollar is at a 5 year high against the Yen.

10 years ago you could get 7.73 Hong Kong Dollars to the USD - today its 7.81

Don't apply for a job at NASA.

(by the way - if you were wondering - I'm British - not American)

You did leave out one important statistic when replying to this braindead individual, that is the unemployment rate in the U.S. is 4.4% and the real rate of unemployment in the U.K. ( the 23% on the dole rate is higher than the real rate) has now gone into double digits at approximately 10.2%, joining those other powerhouse economies in Europe with strong currencies like Germany and France that have been enjoying an unemployment rate in the double digits for some time now. Should the EURO continiue to appreciate then unemployment will continue to rise in these countries and the fate of the European Union will be sealed (I know that is stating the obvious). It seems this individual that you replied to here has shown just as much ignorance as some of the posts I have read early on in this thread. I especially like the poster who was bullish on the strong baht and said let the Thai exporters go out of business, that Thailand produces enough food to feed its people. For that particular posters edification I will point out that a good part of Thailand just exited third world circumstnaces a generation ago and that nearly 70% of the Thai economy is exports and tourisim. If the baht does strenghten further and remains there the longlasting effects on exports and tourisim in Thailand will be devestating to its economy and the standard of living for its population, as China, Vietnam and very soon Cambodia will be more than glad to get the business and tourisim that Thailand loses. By the way for disclosure purposes I am an American, and while the weak dollar hurts those Yanks living abroad it is fantastic for those of us that decided to come back to the states, it is as I have so often refered to it "the gift that keeps on giving".

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IMHO it's much more that the Dollar is weak rather than the Pound is strong. From a British point of view there's been little change. (That's not gloating, BTW, simply a view of the situation)

Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

:o jelous are we :D never mind well c 40 baht to $ again when pigs fly - sorry mate the $ has

fallen of its perch - join the crowd :D who cares anyway I put all my dosh into lolipots a long time ago

and for record a hel_l of a lot when thai stocks crashed a few months ago

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