UK economy ‘will shrink for two years as eurozone and US grow’

[Nick Carter icp]

1 minute ago, candide said:

Don't put word into my mouth, I did not say that. I said that changing the method leads to GDP number increase ( as explained by the ONS). It's not only an issue of revised inputs.

Where does it actually say that it increases GDP figures?

[candide]

11 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Where does it actually say that it increases GDP figures?

Read the ONS article

[Nick Carter icp]

6 minutes ago, candide said:

Read the ONS article

I did read it, but I couldnt see where it was written and that is I asked to to point out exactly where it was written . 

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, candide said:

That's a good incentive for EU countries to do like UK and change the GDP calculation method by widely applying the SUT framework, in order to increase GDP numbers.

If I was the EU I would be more concerned with the illegal immigrant invasion and the fact that Germany's car manufacturing industry is being rapidly usurped by China. 

 

[candide]

52 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

I did read it, but I couldnt see where it was written and that is I asked to to point out exactly where it was written . 

For example ch.5. It's not a uniform increase but tends to increase numbers.

[Nick Carter icp]

4 minutes ago, candide said:

For example ch.5. It's not a uniform increase but tends to increase numbers.

But where does it say that in the link you provided ?

[candide]

6 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

But where does it say that in the link you provided ?

In ch.5

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, candide said:

In ch.5

What is ch.5 ?

[Seppius]

15 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Maybe UK should join BRIC. 

Sooner do that than re-join the EU, problem is, Russia has destabilized BRICS, otherwise good potential

[candide]

1 hour ago, Nick Carter icp said:

What is ch.5 ?

Sorry I was not clear. It's chapter 5 .Impact of Blue Book 2023 on volume GDP.

[candide]

2 hours ago, JonnyF said:

If I was the EU I would be more concerned with the illegal immigrant invasion and the fact that Germany's car manufacturing industry is being rapidly usurped by China. 

 

The car manufacturing issue is a real issue. It's starting to be addressed, but should likely be more rigorously dealt with. Otherwise the European car industry ( not only in the EU) is endangered.

[Furioso]

15 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Maybe UK should join BRIC. 

Bricsit

[Furioso]

2 hours ago, JonnyF said:

If I was the EU I would be more concerned with the illegal immigrant invasion and the fact that Germany's car manufacturing industry is being rapidly usurped by China. 

 

German auto makers as a group have budgeted an impressive 380 billion euros ($406 billion) on research and development and factory construction over the next five years, chiefly focused on electromobility

[candide]

16 hours ago, JonnyF said:

More doomsday predictions for the UK.????

 

Be prepared for a small, largely unreported follow up article in a year or so where growth exceeded expectations and forecasts have been revised. But not until the bitter Rejoiners have regurgitated all the old lies and cliches for pages and pages, such as the UK not returning to pre pandemic levels (another doomsday story later proved to be a lie).

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/uk-economy-gdp-covid-pandemic-rebound-ons-figures-statistics-growth-recession-decline-b1104209.html

 

 

Back in reality, it is the Eurozone that is struggling.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/148adc6b-98f3-4655-a92b-913a232c9eef

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/recession-hit-germany-is-facing-a-flurry-of-global-headwinds-goldman-sachs.html

 

 

 

 

As usual, you did not really read the sources you linked! ????

From your FT article:

"There was an even sharper drop in UK business activity, according to the S&P Global/Cips purchasing managers’ index, which fell to 46.8 in September, down from 48.6 in August, the lowest for 32 months."

Edited September 28, 2023 by candide

[Seppius]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12576969/UK-economy-outdone-France-Germany-recovering-pandemic-official-figures-suggest.html 

 

The UK economy has outperformed both France and Germany in recovering from the pandemic, revised official figures revealed yesterday.

They show that by the middle of this year, GDP was 1.8 per cent larger than pre-Covid levels – implying it is £50 billion bigger than previous estimates

 

 

 

[candide]

21 minutes ago, Seppius said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12576969/UK-economy-outdone-France-Germany-recovering-pandemic-official-figures-suggest.html 

 

The UK economy has outperformed both France and Germany in recovering from the pandemic, revised official figures revealed yesterday.

They show that by the middle of this year, GDP was 1.8 per cent larger than pre-Covid levels – implying it is £50 billion bigger than previous estimates

 

 

 

As outlined several times already, they changed the calculation method by generalizing the use of the SUT framework, which most other countries have not done yet.

So UK numbers cannot be really compared with other countries any more.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01

 

It should also be noted that UK GDP shrank by .5% in July, so at the end of July It's not 1.8% any more, It's 1.3%.

Edited September 30, 2023 by candide

[RayC]

3 hours ago, Seppius said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12576969/UK-economy-outdone-France-Germany-recovering-pandemic-official-figures-suggest.html 

 

The UK economy has outperformed both France and Germany in recovering from the pandemic, revised official figures revealed yesterday.

They show that by the middle of this year, GDP was 1.8 per cent larger than pre-Covid levels – implying it is £50 billion bigger than previous estimates

 

 

 

However, the more pertinent question still remains i.e would the UK have been better off economically if it had remained in the EU? Most commentators believe that the answer is 'Yes'. Example link below.

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence

 

[Yellowtail]

Hmmm, Germany with almost less than 2% growth and 9% inflation in 2022, and revised projections of negative growth for 2023 worse than that of the UK:

 

"On an annual basis, the economy is now projected to shrink by 0.4% in 2023. This is a downward revision compared to the 0.2% growth projected in the Spring Forecast."

 

Economic forecast for Germany (europa.eu)

 

[RayC]

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Hmmm, Germany with almost less than 2% growth and 9% inflation in 2022, and revised projections of negative growth for 2023 worse than that of the UK:

 

"On an annual basis, the economy is now projected to shrink by 0.4% in 2023. This is a downward revision compared to the 0.2% growth projected in the Spring Forecast."

 

Economic forecast for Germany (europa.eu)

 

So your conclusion is what? Germany should leave the EU to improve its' economic performance?

[Yellowtail]

10 minutes ago, RayC said:

So your conclusion is what? Germany should leave the EU to improve its' economic performance?

No, my conclusion is that believing articles written by largely agenda driven ideologs is foolish. 

 

What do you conclude from it? 

[candide]

48 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

No, my conclusion is that believing articles written by largely agenda driven ideologs is foolish. 

 

What do you conclude from it? 

The article is about predictions by Adam Posen.

Adam Posen, ideolog? ????

[Yellowtail]

37 minutes ago, candide said:

The article is about predictions by Adam Posen.

Adam Posen, ideolog? ????

Do you believe Adam Posen wrote the article? 

 

 

 

 

[rickudon]

What i would like to know, is what the GDP would be if we take out inflation. Surely if you measure GDP purely as the total value of production, it will go up when inflation is high. As can be seen in this link, UK is STILL below 2019 GDP.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita-ppp#:~:text=GDP per Capita PPP in,of 30867.17 USD in 1991.

[candide]

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Do you believe Adam Posen wrote the article? 

 

 

 

 

The article is simply reporting what Adam Posen is predicting. Do you consider this article as ideology?

[Yellowtail]

15 minutes ago, candide said:

The article is simply reporting what Adam Posen is predicting.

Do you really believe that? The author took a few bits of data and wrote what they wanted. 

15 minutes ago, candide said:

 

Do you consider this article as ideology?

No, I consider it rhetoric. 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Yellowtail
clarity

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, rickudon said:

What i would like to know, is what the GDP would be if we take out inflation. Surely if you measure GDP purely as the total value of production, it will go up when inflation is high. As can be seen in this link, UK is STILL below 2019 GDP.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita-ppp#:~:text=GDP per Capita PPP in,of 30867.17 USD in 1991.

Correct.

 

Likewise the Government reports foreign trade inclusive of inflation.

 

So a 10% inflation rate will result in a 10% increase in trade value without any change in trade volume.

 

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Chomper Higgot

[candide]

5 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Do you really believe that? The author took a few bits of data and wrote what they wanted. 

No, I consider it rhetoric. 

So what did the author take out and how does it change the meaning of Posen's prediction?

[Yellowtail]

6 minutes ago, candide said:

So what did the author take out and how does it change the meaning of Posen's prediction?

I only saw one quote from Posen, and it did not really support the headline, or the what the article seemed to be presenting. 

 

 

[candide]

1 hour ago, rickudon said:

What i would like to know, is what the GDP would be if we take out inflation. Surely if you measure GDP purely as the total value of production, it will go up when inflation is high. As can be seen in this link, UK is STILL below 2019 GDP.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita-ppp#:~:text=GDP per Capita PPP in,of 30867.17 USD in 1991.

Real GDP is deflated. So GDP growth is calculated after the effect of inflation has been neutralized.

PPP is a different concept, it takes into account local prices, ex. You can buy more in Thailand than in UK with 1$.

Edited September 30, 2023 by candide

[candide]

8 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I only saw one quote from Posen, and it did not really support the headline, or the what the article seemed to be presenting. 

 

 

So you are not able to substantiate your claim.

 

Posen's prediction (he is the co-author of the report) is unambiguous:

"The Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) said a drop in GDP this year of 0.3% would be followed by a fall of 0.2% next year while the eurozone and the US were on course for growth this year and next."