Thailand In Ten Years

[waldpyk]

predictions about the future in ten years

and not a word about PEAK OIL and the effects on the economy

it's unbelievebly

anyway if i'm a nut and mentally impaired and nothing will happen within two years i will be happy

and smiling in the los sun

yes i feel happy in thailand , that's why i'm worried

[qwertz]

There will be life, but not as we know it.

[joeuk1]

In 10 years time everything will be the same as it is now

[qwertz]

In 10 years time everything will be the same as it is now

But different.

[jetjock]

In 10 years time everything will be the same as it is now

But different.

No--same same but different !

[joeuk1]

In 10 years time everything will be the same as it is now

But different.

No--same same but different !

No -- same same no difference

[solo siam]

predictions about the future in ten years

and not a word about PEAK OIL and the effects on the economy

it's unbelievebly

anyway if i'm a nut and mentally impaired and nothing will happen within two years i will be happy

and smiling in the los sun

yes i feel happy in thailand , that's why i'm worried

Computer chips become twice as powerful within 18 months, I don't see why this isn't the future of PV cells or other energy solutions once they become mainstream.

LED's are already growing as a light source - That leaves us with what? plastics and automotices, seen some very nice electric cars recently.

When Oil becomes too expensive, other sources will be tapped, made more efficient and take over, simple as that.

[solo siam]

To give you an idea: Many Thai food suppliers stil donot fulfill ingredient declaration as requested by EU law (1984), donot have HACCP - certification ( since 1994 ! ) , forget BRC-IFS. Three Chinese export boards are already enlisted in the official EU discussions for new food regulations and adaptions.

In 1999 Thaland lost their GSP- import duty preferences into the EU, because ... their Ministry of Commerce didnot apply for renual ( too busy with new job at WTO ? )

So why are there some really big problems with the Chinese exporting Chalk as Milk Powder and numerous other problems, Saying you will comply and actually getting those involved to comply are very different things. Thailand on the whole has a very good record for providing REAL food, supplying foodstuffs worldwide to many different economies - I can see Thailand EASILY competing with China.

I can easily see the USA or others limiting imports from China, which leaves a massive gap for a similar economy (with a significantly better reputation in the field) to pick up the slack.

COMPLETELY AGREED !

Thailand has no chance and no face whatsoever against the Chinese juggarnaut export engine. Whatever problems exist with poison in toothpaste or whatever will be vastly overshadowed by the overwhelming power of the Chinese/American export machine. I don't have the figures, but someone does on tv, and any "good record" Thailand has on exporting anything will be trampled by the Chinese monster. Does anyone doubt this?

To buy or not to buy has NOTHING to do with the size of the country where the company is situated, but the performance, quality and price of the product ( service) offered. And a LOT improves with only: they need THIS, but I only have THAT, so how to fnd a way, both can live with.

My story is, so many Thais are educated with: the elder knows always better, never own thinking and improving, but " follow the BOZZ" or the elder, UNCTAD ( under no circumstance take any decission) as when wrong or cost money "you loose face', so better do nothing as no chance to loose face (only the order or the customer )

for instance: customer asks for 15 oz can, standard 20 oz. Chinese sales staff: can we make it ? Yes, so we accept order but only: 3 containers minimum. Thai sales staff: is it standard ? No ! Solly , no have". As dare not to disturb The BOZZ.

Yes, when the Chinese "make S h t" they do it well. Their jump in output went too fast and with too many products. Their Quality Assurance (QA) is not so well developped YET. see: "The state just doesn’t have the expertise to keep up with these things.”

The problems with Thai products are often solvable one-way-or-another at reasonable costs and done by the importer / customer as the incoming merchandise arrives just-not-in-time, so in a hurry to use. Nobody hears of that.

AND there are very good Thai suppliers too, I even can trust blindfolded. ( Still: quality report + 2 samples to test )

Last-but-not-least: every importer has also his responsabilities. Sorry, but distributing chalk powder being milk powder says also something about the qulaity assurance consiousness of importer himself. And a nation-wide recall says someting about the traceability performance of batch codes of that importer.

something like: close your eyes, donot spend much money on QA and God bless us all.

Are you really in the business?, I would think it a bizarre notion that an importer should check and test every single product to confirm it complies with what is ordered, in fact there would be virtually no imports of any kind if that was the case.

For example are you suggesting that the importers of pet food should have opened every single can of pet food from China, Tested it and then re-tinned it afterwards? What then would be the advantage of importing?

You also seem to be underestimating people in Americas feel for the need of safety, if you believe that poisoned toothpaste is OK to them if the price is right.

You sound like a Chinese businessman, its the foolish American who isn't checking his imports, testing them or keeping the batches correctly numbered - WHEN THE NUMBER ONE FACT IS THAT CHINA SHOULDNT BE EXPORTING POISON AS TOOTHPASTE, OR DOG FOOD, BABY MILK OR WHATEVER.

How are Western countries supposed to trust Chinese food sources if the blame gets shifted onto them for accepting them in the first place, I've never heard this happen with Thai food or imported food products from elsewhere in the world.

All those excuses you have just made for Chinese exporters is exactly the reason that China can't hope that it's food products will be accepted by the West.

The Onus isn't on them to try and detect poisoned batches of food from abroad, but to simply not import food from countries that don't have the infrastructure from stopping them sending out poison.

[LaoPo]

How are Western countries supposed to trust Chinese food sources if the blame gets shifted onto them for accepting them in the first place, I've never heard this happen with Thai food or imported food products from elsewhere in the world.

All those excuses you have just made for Chinese exporters is exactly the reason that China can't hope that it's food products will be accepted by the West.

The Onus isn't on them to try and detect poisoned batches of food from abroad, but to simply not import food from countries that don't have the infrastructure from stopping them sending out poison.

You're right. It IS difficult for the West to trust and accept Chinese food suppliers but there are numerous -Western- independent agencies who can do controlling and checking. If they don't do that and something is wrong the buyers should [also] blame themselves, not just the 'bad' suppliers.

The government however is working hard to fight those suppliers/factories of food & medicines.

"Chinese authorities announced last month that they had closed 180 food factories since December after inspectors found formaldehyde, illegal dyes and industrial wax being used to make candy, pickles, crackers and seafood. All had fewer than 10 employees.

Another regulating agency said it shut 152,000 unlicensed food producers and retailers last year for making and selling fake and low-quality products."

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07...ent_5432754.htm

They even executed -a few days ago- the head of the Chinese Food & Drug Administration, Zheng Xiaoyu, a 62 year old man, because of the serious consequences of approving untested medicine in return for millions of yuan (dollars, euros) in cash and gifts. [10 people died already because of fake antibiotics].

I know, it sounds harsh and even in China this execution had a big impact but if the Chinese government doesn't act 'harsh' on this kind of criminal behaviour a lot of small time factories and suppliers would try (again) to get away with it.

Now they'll think twice...three times, before they sell rubbish ever again...

LaoPo

[Robski]

Poison in toothpaste? Yes it's called Flouride.

This post has been edited by not adding anything useful to this discussion: Today 2007-07-07 20:07:07

[solo siam]

How are Western countries supposed to trust Chinese food sources if the blame gets shifted onto them for accepting them in the first place, I've never heard this happen with Thai food or imported food products from elsewhere in the world.

All those excuses you have just made for Chinese exporters is exactly the reason that China can't hope that it's food products will be accepted by the West.

The Onus isn't on them to try and detect poisoned batches of food from abroad, but to simply not import food from countries that don't have the infrastructure from stopping them sending out poison.

You're right. It IS difficult for the West to trust and accept Chinese food suppliers but there are numerous -Western- independent agencies who can do controlling and checking. If they don't do that and something is wrong the buyers should [also] blame themselves, not just the 'bad' suppliers.

The government however is working hard to fight those suppliers/factories of food & medicines.

"Chinese authorities announced last month that they had closed 180 food factories since December after inspectors found formaldehyde, illegal dyes and industrial wax being used to make candy, pickles, crackers and seafood. All had fewer than 10 employees.

Another regulating agency said it shut 152,000 unlicensed food producers and retailers last year for making and selling fake and low-quality products."

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07...ent_5432754.htm

They even executed -a few days ago- the head of the Chinese Food & Drug Administration, Zheng Xiaoyu, a 62 year old man, because of the serious consequences of approving untested medicine in return for millions of yuan (dollars, euros) in cash and gifts. [10 people died already because of fake antibiotics].

I know, it sounds harsh and even in China this execution had a big impact but if the Chinese government doesn't act 'harsh' on this kind of criminal behaviour a lot of small time factories and suppliers would try (again) to get away with it.

Now they'll think twice...three times, before they sell rubbish ever again...

LaoPo

In typical Asian style - They have a crackdown, and then everything's back to normal. They do the same thing with murderers once in a while, are you suggesting it stops anyone in the future murdering people.

They will just think twice, three times about how to better get away with it....

[solo siam]

You're right. It IS difficult for the West to trust and accept Chinese food suppliers but there are numerous -Western- independent agencies who can do controlling and checking. If they don't do that and something is wrong the buyers should [also] blame themselves, not just the 'bad' suppliers.

The government however is working hard to fight those suppliers/factories of food & medicines.

"Chinese authorities announced last month that they had closed 180 food factories since December after inspectors found formaldehyde, illegal dyes and industrial wax being used to make candy, pickles, crackers and seafood. All had fewer than 10 employees.

Another regulating agency said it shut 152,000 unlicensed food producers and retailers last year for making and selling fake and low-quality products."

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07...ent_5432754.htm

They even executed -a few days ago- the head of the Chinese Food & Drug Administration, Zheng Xiaoyu, a 62 year old man, because of the serious consequences of approving untested medicine in return for millions of yuan (dollars, euros) in cash and gifts. [10 people died already because of fake antibiotics].

I know, it sounds harsh and even in China this execution had a big impact but if the Chinese government doesn't act 'harsh' on this kind of criminal behaviour a lot of small time factories and suppliers would try (again) to get away with it.

Now they'll think twice...three times, before they sell rubbish ever again...

LaoPo

Thats aload of crap.... if you find some product, test it and purchase it, thats what you expect to receive...

You are saying that if I order toothpaste and the Chinese supplier sends me Heroine, then thats my fault!!! Absolute nonsense, The Importer should check where possible as an added value to the consumer but he would expect to get what he purchased, instead of receiving poison instead of toothpase. Come on, I'm all for free trade etc... but thats where you get what you purchase, not what they decide to deliver and 'buyer beware'.

[LaoPo]

Thats aload of crap.... if you find some product, test it and purchase it, thats what you expect to receive...

You are saying that if I order toothpaste and the Chinese supplier sends me Heroine, then thats my fault!!! Absolute nonsense, The Importer should check where possible as an added value to the consumer but he would expect to get what he purchased, instead of receiving poison instead of toothpase. Come on, I'm all for free trade etc... but thats where you get what you purchase, not what they decide to deliver and 'buyer beware'.

It's normal that buyers inspect their merchandise (or have it done by qualified companies) when it's ready for shipment; I'm surprised you never heard of it.

I did it, or had it done for me, already 30 years ago and it's done now still, day-in-day out with thousands and thousands of all kind of products and commodities.

It's called QUALITY CONTROL and that's something a lot of Thai, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Malaysian and Chinese companies, a.o., are not good in, yet.

So they have to learn, over and over again.

If you buy and 'expect' a product that you ordered and you don't have a check done, before shipment you're a fool. Most buyers in the Far East know that, believe me.

Most companies, buyers & sellers, buy and sell by means of an L/C (Letter Of Credit) which is a document between banks, really.

Meaning: if a seller claims to have delivered according to the order and the bank asks the buyer if it's ok [for the buyer] to accept the merchandise, the bank will pay to the seller.

It's very simple: you have to have every shipment/products checked BEFORE shipment; if you don't do that, you will face problems.

LaoPo

[JR Texas]

As a fellow Texan , I agree with a tiny portion of what Dr. Dr. JR Texas claims, but from what I read, his first premise is a balloon that bepo has already popped. There is no population explosion in Thailand; it is imploding, and nobody's paying attention. A demographical Thailand with 20% elderly Thais needing care from children who don't exist, an economy that will not expand unless they allow all the Laotians, Burmese and Khmers to do the work, an educational system that couldn't train workers for the 21st century....wait a minute, I sound too negative. Well, sometimes I can believe that we're on the eve of destruction. I see Thailand in year 2560 as being a constitutional monarchy run by the elite, and lots of Thai families still riding motorcycles bareheaded, but smiling and enjoying tropical life. I see an expatriate population of people on suitable retirement incomes and leuk krung and third generation fourth-krung. I see people still eating delicious, spicy, beautiful Thai food.

JR Texas to PeaceBlondie: The Govt. wants people to believe there is a huge problem with underpopulation......so they use the media to make comments about the population getting older (that is true) and how there are not enough young people to take care of them.

In reality, the population growth rate has declined substantially.......BUT.......the population is still growing.....only the rate has declined. And, even then, there are large urban-rural differences. Plus, you have immigration taking place across all of the borders.......most of it is not fully considered in the "official statistics."

Do not kid yourself: Thailand has a huge population-economic-environmental problem right now.........adding to that problem with more people is not wise. It creates an even larger supply of slave labor that can be exploited by the members of the corporate-political-military triangle of power. It magnifies the labor supply problem. It magnifies the environmental problem. And it increasing the probability that civil unrest will take place on a scale we have not yet seen.

A word about the predictions: I just wrote that off the top of my head.......but I believe it. And they are based on the assumption that things will get worse in terms of visa/business rules, investment climate, population size, education, environment, economic inequality, democracy/freedom, etc.

It is possible that a political movement will take place outside of Thailand (most likely starting in USA) that will start to change everything worldwide........Al Gore might be at the center of such a movement.

I think any major changes in Thailand will only take place because of outside forces impacting Thailand. The 1% that are currently benefiting from the system will never give up power willingly or make significant economic-political-environmental changes.

Finally, the predictions I made will likely take 10-20 years to fully unfold.

[siamamerican]

Robot Go Go girls in entertainment venues run by Chinese businessmen. This will transition into Go Go girls that morph into what ever you desire. Much in the same way Arnold was replaced by the a more advanced cyborg in Terminator ?.

Seriously, no one knows, but most likely it will be pretty much the same.

[cdnvic]

Robot Go Go girls in entertainment venues run by Chinese businessmen.

So with their artificial robotic hips, the go-go girls and their Pattaya customers will finally have something in common.

[canuckamuck]

2000 plus views and only a handful of genuine opinions. This probably says a lot about forum psychology. People (myself included) love to jump on errors in other peoples arguments. But as far as putting their alias on the line and sharing their own potentially flawed logic, especially with ideas that don’t fit pigeon hole responses, there is quite a bit of hesitation.

I think we take ourselves a bit too seriously here. A ten year prediction has about as much chance of being accurate as a racial profile of Michael Jackson performed by Sea Gypsies on loa khoa. It’s just a guess, although it is obvious by the comments here that there are some people to whom this question hits close to the office. Anyhow, I am pleased that some people gave it a shot, the mystery of tomorrow is a refreshing change from some of the more sundry topics of late.

[quiksilva]

Bangkok's CBD will extend down Narathiwas Road but not much further than TPI Tower. The area around Mahboonkrong and Pathumwan will be significantly redeveloped.

There will be more mass transit but more cars, so traffic will be just as bad as it ever was. Apart from new buildings, new technology and new faces it will be much as it has always been.

No point in predicting the markets because they fluctuate, but I hope that they will rely less on exports and develop a stronger local economy.

[Heng]

Ladkrabang, Minburi, and Nong Jok will be rather developed by then (it's already been on the way for some time now)... resulting in a significant increase in the size of the "wealthy" Bangkok Muslim Thai population. With a little patience -about a hundred years+ since they were sent out there by the powers that be way back when- and luck, even land on the 'worthless frontier' can become gold.

[canadiangirl]

Interesting but very difficult question. Ten years ago, could anyone have predicted life the way it is now? Maybe science fiction authors.

My general feeling is that the next dominant culture of the world is to be found in Asia. China? India? I'm not sure. The U.S. has lost its "animal spirits" (a pretty hokey sounding concept, I know, but this is what people used to look at, in the dawn of economics, to explain why empires rise and fall, I guess it means something like nerve, collective will) and will fall from world dominance. Whatever that country ends up being, it will have a strong impact on Thailand.

I'm going to cheat and say I really have no idea about the rest of it, but I guess we have to account for:

-peak oil

-global warming

-china's impact on the environment

-muslim-related violence all over the world

In Thailand:

- is the regime going to loosen its hold and give over the country to democracy, or entrench itself further, probably to be kicked out eventually by violence?

If the junta can avoid going the way of Burma, I think Thailand will do ok for itself over the next ten years. I have a lot of respect for the Thai people. I think it says a lot about them that they were the only country in SEA to avoid being colonized. I think that they are clever, and their pride serves them well. I don't like that sometimes this takes the form of anti-foreigner sentiment, but on the other hand, I can't blame them for wanting to keep Thailand Thai. So I don't know if I will want to live in Thailand in ten years, but I think the Thai people will do ok!

[hahaha, I didn't plan to write such a long and pretentious answer! ]

Edited July 16, 2007 by PeaceBlondie
Royal remarks removed in accord with forum rules. PB.

[puipuitom]

Yes, Thai Trade Service. Where have you been? Do you live in Thailand? It's good to have someone like you here on the board.

I do food business - amoung others- with SE Asia since 1976, lived close to Pattaya from 1993-95, then started Thai Trade Service, for which I am 2 - 3 x / yr in Thailand for a couple of weeks. Aside of daily contact with TH, CN, VN

In 2001 I started Tropifood, who is already far bigger as Thai Trade

I have my own condo in Sukhunvit Soi 77, but already a few year not interested anymore to live on permanent bases there.

[puipuitom]

Thats aload of crap.... if you find some product, test it and purchase it, thats what you expect to receive...

You are saying that if I order toothpaste and the Chinese supplier sends me Heroine, then thats my fault!!! Absolute nonsense, The Importer should check where possible as an added value to the consumer but he would expect to get what he purchased, instead of receiving poison instead of toothpase. Come on, I'm all for free trade etc... but thats where you get what you purchase, not what they decide to deliver and 'buyer beware'.

It's normal that buyers inspect their merchandise (or have it done by qualified companies)

It's called QUALITY CONTROL and that's something a lot of Thai, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Malaysian and Chinese companies, a.o., are not good in, yet.

Most companies, buyers & sellers, buy and sell by means of an L/C (Letter Of Credit) which is a document between banks, really.

Meaning: if a seller claims to have delivered according to the order and the bank asks the buyer if it's ok [for the buyer] to accept the merchandise, the bank will pay to the seller.

It's very simple: you have to have every shipment/products checked BEFORE shipment; if you don't do that, you will face problems.

LaoPo

Companies like SGS, Bureau Veritas, Efsis etc have a daytime job doing these inspections, and are often one of the conditions a bank will honour the LC. Not approved by SGS, no money.

Aside ot that: one container test on all pesticides, next all havey metals, next polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

In order every customer doesnot have to do the same, BRC (UK-version) / IFS ( German-French version) came into life: a surveyor like SGS inspects a company ( very thoroughly), with afterwards a sudden lightning control at a factory.

Can you imagine a BRC-sertified factory falls through at such a lightning-audit ?

or worser, like CERPER - Peru loosing its certicication licence, because of ..

Just check how few Thai companies have BRC-IFS. A few % only. China: worse. Vietnam: never heard of.

Aside of all: the importer still has to make some tests when the merchandise arrives in EU ( Not all cans ).

For sure for USA / Canada etc the same rules apply.

Yes, therefore some importers have to ask a higher price as another, are not willing to do buisiness with everybody with a low price only, as price is the 4th criteria, not even the second !

[joeuk1]

2000 plus views and only a handful of genuine opinions. This probably says a lot about forum psychology. People (myself included) love to jump on errors in other peoples arguments. But as far as putting their alias on the line and sharing their own potentially flawed logic, especially with ideas that don't fit pigeon hole responses, there is quite a bit of hesitation.

I think we take ourselves a bit too seriously here. A ten year prediction has about as much chance of being accurate as a racial profile of Michael Jackson performed by Sea Gypsies on loa khoa. It's just a guess, although it is obvious by the comments here that there are some people to whom this question hits close to the office. Anyhow, I am pleased that some people gave it a shot, the mystery of tomorrow is a refreshing change from some of the more sundry topics of late.

What changes have you seen the last 10 years ?

[chinthee]

Thats aload of crap.... if you find some product, test it and purchase it, thats what you expect to receive...

You are saying that if I order toothpaste and the Chinese supplier sends me Heroine, then thats my fault!!! Absolute nonsense, The Importer should check where possible as an added value to the consumer but he would expect to get what he purchased, instead of receiving poison instead of toothpase. Come on, I'm all for free trade etc... but thats where you get what you purchase, not what they decide to deliver and 'buyer beware'.

It's normal that buyers inspect their merchandise (or have it done by qualified companies)

It's called QUALITY CONTROL and that's something a lot of Thai, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Malaysian and Chinese companies, a.o., are not good in, yet.

Most companies, buyers & sellers, buy and sell by means of an L/C (Letter Of Credit) which is a document between banks, really.

Meaning: if a seller claims to have delivered according to the order and the bank asks the buyer if it's ok [for the buyer] to accept the merchandise, the bank will pay to the seller.

It's very simple: you have to have every shipment/products checked BEFORE shipment; if you don't do that, you will face problems.

LaoPo

Companies like SGS, Bureau Veritas, Efsis etc have a daytime job doing these inspections, and are often one of the conditions a bank will honour the LC. Not approved by SGS, no money.

Aside ot that: one container test on all pesticides, next all havey metals, next polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

In order every customer doesnot have to do the same, BRC (UK-version) / IFS ( German-French version) came into life: a surveyor like SGS inspects a company ( very thoroughly), with afterwards a sudden lightning control at a factory.

Can you imagine a BRC-sertified factory falls through at such a lightning-audit ?

or worser, like CERPER - Peru loosing its certicication licence, because of ..

Just check how few Thai companies have BRC-IFS. A few % only. China: worse. Vietnam: never heard of.

Aside of all: the importer still has to make some tests when the merchandise arrives in EU ( Not all cans ).

For sure for USA / Canada etc the same rules apply.

Yes, therefore some importers have to ask a higher price as another, are not willing to do buisiness with everybody with a low price only, as price is the 4th criteria, not even the second !

I ran a Hong Kong based international commodities trading firm for many years. SGS was always used with suppliers you hadn't yet built up trust with. However, the cost is quite high and adds to the cost of your products. Anyway, even with SGS testing, they cannot obviously check every piece in a container, and it is still random testing and faulty product can still get through.

[Jimjim]

In 10 years Thailand will be part of Myanmar and a new communist union involving China, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and North Korea. WWIII will erupt over this development.

[canuckamuck]

What changes have you seen the last 10 years ?

If you are asking me about the last ten years in Thailand I would only be about 50% reliable since I am just now in my 5th year in LOS. I never claimed expert status, but here’s what I have seen.

A steady increase in the cost of living, quite a lot of development, a tsunami the physical evidence which was rapidly erased by resort development, I’ve seen a tightening of visa requirements, and I have seen official comments disparaging low quality foreigners. I have seen a constitution and a government thrown out without so much as a raised eyebrow from the citizens, I’ve seen a military dictatorship develop and cement its power in broad daylight, again without the concern of the citizens. I have watched the ominous rise of the Chinese economic machine, operating by its own set of rules and establishing tremendous influence on the world stage. I have seen hi end Japanese apartments built one after another and filled with new residents. I have seen an increase in people’s interest in Cambodia and Vietnam as places to live and work. I have noticed an increase in Eastern European visitors (can’t miss em 20 year old hair style, lots of money and a frown on their face). I have watched a bloody insurgency rage unchecked under the watch of Thailand’s (Muslim) top general.

On the positive end, I like the subway in Bangkok, Chiang Mai might eventually finish that big roadway through town they have been working on since I first arrived, and the internet connectivity has improved tremendously.

Edited July 16, 2007 by canuckamuck

[the gent]

[but that just might change. There may be some hope.....if Al Gore wins the Nobel Peace Prize he may run for the presidency, win again, and change some things.....set a different tone worldwide.

Is JR a satirist?

At the risk of provoking CanadianVic, whenever there is an allusion to Texas I'm invariably put in mind of Kubrick's drill sergeant voicing his belief that the population of the lone star state comprised ' steers and queers '.

If he is indeed the genuine article then his patently potty hypothesis suggests he probably has a bell around his neck and goes ' mooooo' a lot.

[Edonista]

I think economy will decline due to Vietnamese and Chinese competition on exports.

The Military will stay in charge and will keep making all possible wrong decisions for economy(that is protectionistic and xenophobic policies)

Sex industry will go on, at least for the locals. A lot of new workers for sure. Don't know if farangs will be allowed to enjoy the party, though.

The military and the elite might decide we "destabilize" their perfect society (we give too much money to poor people) and kick us all out.

[Jingthing]

The military and the elite might decide we "destabilize" their perfect society (we give too much money to poor people) and kick us all out.

You see. The Cheap Charlies were right!

[Tinkelbell]

In 10 years Thailand will be part of Myanmar and a new communist union involving China, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and North Korea. WWIII will erupt over this development.

Time to time this thought always pops up in my head, and it scares out of my wit. Thailand herself is surrounded with communist countries, too close to comfort for the past few hundred years now.

The fact is, for the past 25 years, TL is doing far better than her neighbors. But the table is turning on the other side, her neighbors start catching up, at the rate that they're carrying now, I'm afraid she would be part of one of her neighbors. Who would that be ? Myanmar...Vietnam...Cambodia..etc are Siam old nemeses.