Is Thailand heading towards an economic crisis?

[talahtnut]

The Thai economic problem is that the rich are getting richer and the

poor are getting poorer.  Tax the rich to support the poor.

Thailand is self sufficient and will always be solvent.

[ExpatOilWorker]

35 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

The Thai economic problem is that the rich are getting richer and the

poor are getting poorer.  Tax the rich to support the poor.

Thailand is self sufficient and will always be solvent.

Just like Venezuela 🇻🇪  did?

[jacko45k]

2 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Just like Venezuela 🇻🇪  did?

Corruption and failed policies. Should be a rich country.

They once shared the oil wealth with all the citizens, most certainly a step to helping their poor. Now the migrants head out not in. 

[Mike Lister]

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Kitiphong Thaichareon

BANGKOK (Reuters) -Thailand's economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter of 2023 and policymakers downgraded the outlook for this year...

 

https://www.aol.com/news/thai-economy-shrinks-adds-rate-030448206.html

Perhaps it's just me but I still don't see this so called looming economic crisis....from the link above:

 

What - "Gross domestic product fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in the fourth quarter"

Why - "A major drag in the fourth quarter was a decline in fixed investment, partly due to a delay in the budget". That's not partly, it's more like wholly, a self serving strategy of delay, to reinforce the need for the giveaway program!

 

What - "while private consumption stagnated and exports nearly flatlined".

Why - Flat lining can be a good thing, especially when it happens at near record levels, which both did!

 

What - "The economy expanded 1.9% in 2023, slower than expected, and less than revised 2.5% growth in 2022".

Why - Economic growth was on track to meet the forecast but government delayed the budget in 4Q23 which resulted in a fall of 0.6% hence targets were missed.

 

The BOT press release said:

 

The Thai economy slowed down from the previous quarter. Tourist expenditures
and the value of merchandise exports, excluding gold, softened due to the subdued global
demand together with structural factors, which negatively affected manufacturing production
and private investment. Public spending also contracted from capital expenditures of the
central government as well as investment from state-owned enterprises. Nevertheless, private
consumption and activities in the service sector continued to improve and remained to be the
key driver of the Thai economy

 

https://www.bot.or.th/content/dam/bot/documents/en/thai-economy/the-state-of-thai-economy/monthly-2023/press-en-2023-12.pdf

 

If there is an economic crisis it appears to be an intentional man made crisis.

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

6 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

Perhaps it's just me but I still don't see this so called looming economic crisis....from the link above:

 

What - "Gross domestic product fell a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in the fourth quarter"

Why - "A major drag in the fourth quarter was a decline in fixed investment, partly due to a delay in the budget". That's not partly, it's more like wholly, a self serving strategy of delay, to reinforce the need for the giveaway program!

 

What - "while private consumption stagnated and exports nearly flatlined".

Why - Flat lining can be a good thing, especially when it happens at near record levels, which both did!

 

What - "The economy expanded 1.9% in 2023, slower than expected, and less than revised 2.5% growth in 2022".

Why - Economic growth was on track to meet the forecast but government delayed the budget in 4Q23 which resulted in a fall of 0.6% hence targets were missed.

 

The BOT press release said:

 

The Thai economy slowed down from the previous quarter. Tourist expenditures
and the value of merchandise exports, excluding gold, softened due to the subdued global
demand together with structural factors, which negatively affected manufacturing production
and private investment. Public spending also contracted from capital expenditures of the
central government as well as investment from state-owned enterprises. Nevertheless, private
consumption and activities in the service sector continued to improve and remained to be the
key driver of the Thai economy

 

https://www.bot.or.th/content/dam/bot/documents/en/thai-economy/the-state-of-thai-economy/monthly-2023/press-en-2023-12.pdf

 

If there is an economic crisis it appears to be an intentional man made crisis.

 

Good points and you probably understand the Thai economy better than most of us.

I think the fear is what might come later in 2024, man made or natural slowdown.

It is never great to be on top (or bottom) of this list, especially if household debt is high.

 

[Photoguy21]

On 11/30/2023 at 1:45 PM, Celsius said:

10,000 baht handout is not going to happen.

 

I am sure of that.

If it does go ahead the country will be bankrupted.

[Mike Lister]

25 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Good points and you probably understand the Thai economy better than most of us.

I think the fear is what might come later in 2024, man made or natural slowdown.

It is never great to be on top (or bottom) of this list, especially if household debt is high.

 

I doubt I understand it better than you, as I recall you have an extremely good grasp on things!