Is Thailand heading towards an economic crisis?

[webfact]

 

The deceleration in the growth of the Thai economy in the third quarter has raised questions on whether these were symptoms of the country staring at an economic crisis.

Gross domestic product in the third quarter grew by only 1.5 per cent. Most of the leading economists do not see any risk, but politicians in the ruling Pheu Thai Party and its supporters are ringing alarm bells.

 

Economists argue that the current slowdown in growth is nothing like the crisis when the gross domestic product contracted by 6.1 per cent in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic in 2020, or the 1998 “Tom Yum” crisis when the economy shrank by 7.6 per cent.

 

Most economists, however, warn that the government must save money to cope with harder times in future.

 

Those in the economic crisis bandwagon have a vested interest to justify the government’s controversial digital wallet scheme that has generally been widely criticized. The government plans to borrow 500 billion baht in order to hand out 10,000 baht per person to 50 million people aged 16 years and above for spending within a six-month period. The government and its supporters argue that the economy needs a jump-start measure by boosting consumption. Opponents of the scheme counter that taxpayers’ money could be used wisely and it should be allocated for productive investment, not for short-term consumption.

 

“It is open for interpretation whether a short-term consumption stimulus is needed,” says Sakon Varanyuwatana, a former dean at Thammasat University’s Faculty of Economics.

 

The government is holding consultations with the Council of State, the government’s legal advisor, on whether it should propose to Parliament a bill for borrowing 500 billion baht to finance the digital wallet scheme.

 

By Thai PBS World’s Business Desk

 

Full story: Thai PBS 2023-11-30

 

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[Mike Lister]

The economists are right, the politicians are wrong, they should listen to them rather than just trying to create populist policies and give money away.

[Celsius]

10,000 baht handout is not going to happen.

 

I am sure of that.

[bob smith]

The Thai Economy WILL crash at some point in the near future.

 

And bob smith will be here to hoover up all the spoils.

 

I am cash rich baby and the ladies sure love it!

Edited November 30, 2023 by bob smith

[The Cyclist]

Do none of these clowns never consider that infinite growth is impossible on a planet with finite resources ?

 

Robert F Kenendy nailed GDP as a measure of anything way back in the 60's.

 

Probably more true today, than it was back then.

[hydraides]

LOL scare tactics to try and push through 10,000 baht scheme.....so desperate

 

Thai citizens should resist at all costs...........They will be giving their freedoms away in the name of CBDC implmenetation.....No way thailand ecocomy about to collapse lol...........Tourism is going to go to all time highs this high season........Billions of baht being spent by tourists everyday

 

[1FinickyOne]

Is the entire world heading for a financial crisis?

[bob smith]

11 minutes ago, hydraides said:

LOL scare tactics to try and push through 10,000 baht scheme.....so desperate

 

Thai citizens should resist at all costs...........They will be giving their freedoms away in the name of CBDC implmenetation.....No way thailand ecocomy about to collapse lol...........Tourism is going to go to all time highs this high season........Billions of baht being spent by tourists everyday

 

....You clearly have no idea how Economics works.

[Gottfrid]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Gross domestic product in the third quarter grew by only 1.5 per cent. Most of the leading economists do not see any risk, but politicians in the ruling Pheu Thai Party and its supporters are ringing alarm bells.

Hmmm.... I wonder where they get their information from, if they do not use leading economists? 

[connda]

The world economies most of which are fueled on debt are all on the cusp of "Economic Crisis."

When i first arrived here, the price of gold was 12K THB / baht-weight.  It will be 36K (if not more) by the end of 2024 (maybe the end of March 2024).  Current value of 23 karat Thai gold per baht-weight is 33.5K THB which is up 1000 THB over the last month.  Gold is up from 29.2K THB over the last year.
Does this mean that the value of gold has tripled?  Nope.  It means the value of Thailand fiat money has been discounted by 65+% relative to gold, and you CAN see this in the inflation of prices over the last 15 years.  The value of gold move inversely to the value of debased national fiat currencies.  Governments lie about the real value of their debased currencies and real inflation.  The value of gold relative to currencies does not lie.

The debt bubble will blow - not "If" but "When."  Highly leveraged and indebted nations will fall.  Read history.  The Depression, and its effect on the global economy.  And when the banks and the economy collapse?  Well, read up on one of the most recent collapses in Argentina 1998 to 2001.  Find some first hand accounts.  It's not pretty, especially when a nation and a people are forced down to the bottom of the Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.

What's at the end of the line?  World War, imho, that will support Neo-Totalitarianism in most countries and the rise of Neo-Fascism in many of what are currently referred to as "liberal democracies." 

[Mike Lister]

10 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

Hmmm.... I wonder where they get their information from, if they do not use leading economists? 

There's a trade off between creating inflation via the giveaway and losing control of the government because they haven't done anything. Not understanding the link between the giveaway and inflation is not the issue, their poor judgement and the wrong reason is.

[worgeordie]

Teflon Thailand ....they fall in it , but always come up smelling of roses ....

 

regards worgeordie

[connda]

16 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

Hmmm.... I wonder where they get their information from, if they do not use leading economists? 

Anyone who "Trusts The Experts" already have a load of experience bending over and grabbing their ankles. 
If you drop you soap in a shower full of experts?  It's best to kick it to the other side of the room before picking it back up.

In the meanwhile, real consumer inflation vs government manipulated tosh.

Government: "Well, instead of using toothpaste you can use baking soda and salt which are cheap.  So now that you're using baking soda instead of toothpaste, the price of toothpaste shows negative inflation.  in fact, the price of toothpaste is so depressed that we need to inject a few trillion USD into the economy to stimulate growth!"

Lie and lie and lie and lie and lie as average people are ravaged by unrelenting inflation in goods, services, and housing. 


 

[connda]

Just now, connda said:

Government: "Well, instead of using toothpaste you can use baking soda and salt which are cheap.  So now that you're using baking soda instead of toothpaste, the price of toothpaste shows negative inflation.  in fact, the price of toothpaste is so depressed that we need to inject a few trillion USD into the economy to stimulate growth!"

Lie and lie and lie and lie and lie as average people are ravaged by unrelenting inflation in goods, services, and housing. 

My favorite political cartoonist, Bob Moran, pretty well sums it up universally: "It's Raining!"

[bignok]

1 hour ago, 1FinickyOne said:

Is the entire world heading for a financial crisis?

Happens every 14 to 21 years

[spidermike007]

Thailand has still not made anywhere near a full recovery, there are so many problems around the world, the economy in China is terrible, many other countries are near recession, and airfares are way up. This high season will not be anything special. Last year I went to Samui during absolute peak season, on a last minute whim. I looked up hotel bookings and was surprised to find a lot of hotels were available and the prices were relatively low. That's never happened before in peak season, where Samui used to enjoy occupancy rates well over 90%. I don't expect it to be that much better this year, than last.

 

Thailand is no longer attracting very many Western tourists for a dozen very good reasons. Right now it is predominantly Malaysian, Indian, Arab, Chinese, and Russian. One could argue that these are relatively low quality tourists, in terms of the amounts of money that they spend. Sure you have a few wealthy Russians and some wealthy Chinese, but most are lower to middle income and don't spend alot. This process will not be reversed until the authorities wake up and make some sacrifices such as lowering luxury taxes, lowering wine taxes, cleaning up the air, making the highways safer, allowing more private air travel, helicopter travel, high-speed trains and alternatives to the totally choked and extremely hazardous highways.

 

Prices are up, inflation continues its march, and income for many Thais who are not successful entrepreneurs, or government workers, is down. Tourism will not recover anytime soon. The quality of tourists continues to drop, the average spend is down, and occupancy rates are low. In addition, exports are down, and we have not even seen a real recession hit yet overseas. Nor has the market correction come yet. So, there is still alot of headwind that Thailand faces.

 

For now, its future has been stolen once again by the army thieves and goons. The army is no doubt the enemy of the people, and so is the new stooge PM. The recent election shows that the people are both sick of being led by highly ignorant dinosaurs, with no interest in progress, and are interested in smart, young folks, who are serious, accomplished, capable of change, and interested in insuring that Thailand has a good future. Pita is exactly what this nation needs, at this point in time. However, he was too progressive, and the goons had to stop him, in the name of regression.

[Eric Loh]

"Is Thailand heading towards an economic crisis".

 

Yes if you listen to the economists who favour a hands-off approach and hope for the best. Aging population burden on health care and social welfare, economic disparity, slow improvement in the income enviroment for low earners, labour productivity declining, household debts etc will continue to increase and trade affected by geo-politics uncertainties. Thailand need good economic policies to avert an economic crisis; not the reverse of not doing anything. So far government under Sreetha has been very active in driving those policies. A much improvement leadership than the insipid previous government. 

[Stargeezr]

What is TATs forecast. Economic tough times or worse.

  I guess we will all know in April 2024, when the high season is winding down and

everyone is headed back to their home countries.

[ThaiFelix]

28 minutes ago, Stargeezr said:

What is TATs forecast. Economic tough times or worse.

  I guess we will all know in April 2024, when the high season is winding down and

everyone is headed back to their home countries.

Thailand has relied too much on Chinese tourists of late.  However the TAT has failed to realise that Chinese tourists dont make monthly payments for sick buffalo like farang do.

[Mike Lister]

13 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

"Is Thailand heading towards an economic crisis".

 

Yes if you listen to the economists who favour a hands-off approach and hope for the best. Aging population burden on health care and social welfare, economic disparity, slow improvement in the income enviroment for low earners, labour productivity declining, household debts etc will continue to increase and trade affected by geo-politics uncertainties. Thailand need good economic policies to avert an economic crisis; not the reverse of not doing anything. So far government under Sreetha has been very active in driving those policies. A much improvement leadership than the insipid previous government. 

He's racking up the airmiles, that's for sure but there's no concrete results yet, maybe too early still.

[soalbundy]

16 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

Do none of these clowns never consider that infinite growth is impossible on a planet with finite resources ?

 

Robert F Kenendy nailed GDP as a measure of anything way back in the 60's.

 

Probably more true today, than it was back then.

Most economies are debt based economies with a planned amount of inflation, growth is needed to keep the cycle rolling otherwise you get stagflation. Thailand is not alone, the world is rolling towards an economic crisis, countries are swimming in excessive debt, inflation is making the banks curb credit which reduces money supply (debt creates money, repayment destroys it) this reduces inflation but curbs demand, hence the real estate crisis among others. A big reset is coming and I don't think we will like it.

[ikke1959]

In Thailand sadly enough the most people have no clue what they are doing. How many times don't we read about things done by one party and the opposite by another. Laws and regulations are not being changed and some are very outdated. The country doesn't invest in the infrastructure. The railway system is 19th century and never been updated, the roads are overloaded and not safe anymore. Houses are being build everywhere without the need as many are not sold and/or empty and sometimes not even finished for some reason. The uneducated people accept everything whta is going on and believe the lies of the army based governments and the people with power, as it is the culture to respect them and don't think for yourself. Tourism is broken down and will be difficult to restore.. Laws like alcohol restrictions, electronic cigarettes, double pricing and now the latest idea  for tax refund are not doing any good. The grumpy immigration and long cues at the airports are also not welcoming tourists.  Local tourism is the last years promoted, but with so many days of it is no wonder the the economy is going back. A holiday on a weekend day will have an extra day of, as it was not a free day.. Most people don't earn anything or have to work on these days as no work means no money and the holidays are only paid if you work for army or government. Reduce the holidays, stop with day wages, but gives monthly salaries so that everybody in every sector will have paid holidays. Educate people  how to spend money instead of constantly pushing to buy and make rules for customers that before they want a loan for a car or motorcycle or whatever that they need a minimum leftover to live from... The economy can be boosted by investment of solar energy. Educate people how to install solar panels, instead of the 10k handout, give people who makes solar panels on their house a discount paid by the government. Stimulate electric vehicles and get rid of the 20 years and pre World War cars, it will improve the air quality, and make restriction for the industry that are very pollution too. Make a police force that do their job. Forbid the burning of rice fields and black fuming cars.  Raise the salaries to a normal amount about 600 THB a day. and a workweek of not more than 6 days of 8 hours. And so I can go on and on

The past 2 decades Thailand did not do anything and now they have to pay for it. The greed and corruption, the lack of changes will ruin the country.      

[Skeptic7]

Hope so. This place is long overdue for some major comeuppance. 

[soalbundy]

16 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

Is the entire world heading for a financial crisis?

It would seem that most of the advanced economies are in recession (apparently you can only know that for certain when it's over) certainly M2 money supply is reducing which brings down demand and eventually raises unemployment which further brings down demand, a vicious cycle. The central banks seem powerless, in the USA many small and mid sized banks are basically insolvent and like China (although not as bad) the real estate industry is on its knees, interesting times.

[findlay13]

Ex-pats have been on about the " Imminent fall of the Thai economy" for 20 years that I know of.

[BritManToo]

1 minute ago, findlay13 said:

Ex-pats have been on about the " Imminent fall of the Thai economy" for 20 years that I know of.

I'm more of a 'slow fall of the world economy' kinda guy.

[BritManToo]

7 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

........... the real estate industry is on its knees, interesting times.

But the prices are still going up!

[Gknrd]

40-45 baht to dollar, 90 day visas , Here is hoping.

[nobodysfriend]

14 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

This process will not be reversed until the authorities wake up and make some sacrifices such as lowering luxury taxes, lowering wine taxes, cleaning up the air, making the highways safer, allowing more private air travel, helicopter travel, high-speed trains and alternatives to the totally choked and extremely hazardous highways.

 

Wake up .

 

14 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

The economy can be boosted by investment of solar energy. Educate people how to install solar panels, instead of the 10k handout, give people who makes solar panels on their house a discount paid by the government. Stimulate electric vehicles and get rid of the 20 years and pre World War cars, it will improve the air quality, and make restriction for the industry that are very pollution too. Make a police force that do their job. Forbid the burning of rice fields and black fuming cars.  Raise the salaries to a normal amount about 600 THB a day

 

+1

[hotchilli]

17 hours ago, webfact said:

The deceleration in the growth of the Thai economy in the third quarter has raised questions on whether these were symptoms of the country staring at an economic crisis.

If Thailands tourist high season is a flop then yes, I think Thailand is in for a rough ride in 2024.

Without the Chinese coming en-mass I think the writing is already on the wall.