Thousands Protest Outside Thai Privy Council Chairman's Home

[younghusband]

The Metropolitan Police Commissioner, Pol. Lt. Gen. Adisorn Nonsee (อดิศร นนทรีย์), affirms that the police will look after the protestors at Sanam Luang (สนามหลวง), and says riots can damage the national image.

Er, so can coups, corrupt authorites etc. Are the police going to investigate them too?

The coup was smooth as silk. Every news agencies reported on complete absense of violence, so the damage was minimal, and, in fact, cemented Thailand's reputation as peaceful, smiling nation.

As Eric Idle famously commented in The Life of Brian, while nailed to a cross, "Always look on the bright side of life".

[Plus]

I think all travel agents stress that the coup was non violent if asked by concerned tourists.

If TAT ever prints brochures on Thailand's political environment they should certainly highlight that point, too.

To regular people non-violence is more important than democracy in third world countries they intend to visit. They don't expect too much in terms of democratic development, they expect sea, sand, sun, and the fourth S, and no violent, life threatening mobs on their holidays.

[hammered]

Lets try to get back on topic

Protest leaders to hear charges Thur

(BangkokPost.com) - The Criminal Court ordered nine key members of the United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) to return to the court on Thursday to hear the charges after they led a group of protesters to march to Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda's residence on Sunday night.

Rest at: http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=120444

[John K]

John K, wasn't the issue back then around Thaksin's comment about an "influential figure"?

Yes that was the trigger, but I was trying to talk about the reason for that comment.

Which doesn't explain your statement that had Prem not been 'bullet proof', Thaksin would still be in office.

The point I was driving at Thaksin wanted to tarnish Prem for his own personal reason. Please keep in mind this is pre coup so the consideration /concept of a coup was not even on the table then. The time frame was about 4 to 10 weeks before the coup here. The influential figure comment was around July 2, 2006 as I recall. Also HRH 60th was going on about that time too.

If Thaksin was successful there would have been much less anti Thaksin going around and less chance of future yet unknown problems August and September 2006. I would imagine even the lesser educated people of Isaan (votes) would take to heart how they would view Prem if Thaksin was successful. I believe there was already significant erosion of the Isaan voter base at that time but I am not sure so that may not be true. As I said I don’t remember all the specifics.

[John K]

I think all travel agents stress that the coup was non violent if asked by concerned tourists.

If TAT ever prints brochures on Thailand's political environment they should certainly highlight that point, too.

To regular people non-violence is more important than democracy in third world countries they intend to visit. They don't expect too much in terms of democratic development, they expect sea, sand, sun, and the fourth S, and no violent, life threatening mobs on their holidays.

Good point Plus, unless this is in your face or needs to be in your face everyday people lose continuity. That I am sure it what Thaksin is trying to play up. The other governments around the wold have far more important things to do than baby-sit Thaksin. It is a bit like people who read the first few posts of a thread and then jump to the end and make a comment out of context because things changed in the middle of the thread.

On another note that would probably fit better in another thread, Thailand’s economy seemed to head south a whole lot faster than I would expect, however I am basing that on what I have seen in the USA. I have no way of proving this or even knowing where to start, but I can’t help but wonder how much Thaksin is doing behind the scenes to sour Thailand’s economy. I said early on (and I caught some heat from it indirectly) Thaksin needs to look like the man who can save the day. If he has the know how (that he does) to fix it, then certainly he has the know how to break it too. I have yet to see Thaksin only attack (good or bad) on one front.

[blaze]

It's pretty clear from Prem's own speeches that he wanted Thaskin to go, that doesnt' mean, however, that he actively planned a coup or anything "beyond" democratic means.

Singling our Prem as a coup mastermind is unreasonable and their attack on him is disproportionate - they just resent that Prem's opinion mattered more to the generals than anyone else's.

Actually the coup happened because all democratic means of removing Thaksin were subverted, or at least the generals didn't see anything that would have worked. In their eyes Thaksin clearly had no right to govern the country and they didn't trust, or couldn't wait for the only court case at the time that would have removed him - TRT dissolution case. Even when they created favourable conditions for justice to work its way it still took the court nine months to reach the veridict.

And should Abhisit- or for that matter, Sonthi- become next PM, whose opinion should matter most to the generals: that of the elected government- or that of Prem?

Edited July 25, 2007 by blaze

[hammered]

It's pretty clear from Prem's own speeches that he wanted Thaskin to go, that doesnt' mean, however, that he actively planned a coup or anything "beyond" democratic means.

Singling our Prem as a coup mastermind is unreasonable and their attack on him is disproportionate - they just resent that Prem's opinion mattered more to the generals than anyone else's.

Actually the coup happened because all democratic means of removing Thaksin were subverted, or at least the generals didn't see anything that would have worked. In their eyes Thaksin clearly had no right to govern the country and they didn't trust, or couldn't wait for the only court case at the time that would have removed him - TRT dissolution case. Even when they created favourable conditions for justice to work its way it still took the court nine months to reach the veridict.

And should Abhisit- or for that matter, Sonthi- become next PM, whose opinion should matter most to the generals: that of the elected government- or that of Prem?

There is a subtle difference between should and will, but lets try to get back on topic.

[quiksilva]

It's pretty clear from Prem's own speeches that he wanted Thaskin to go, that doesnt' mean, however, that he actively planned a coup or anything "beyond" democratic means.

Singling our Prem as a coup mastermind is unreasonable and their attack on him is disproportionate - they just resent that Prem's opinion mattered more to the generals than anyone else's.

Actually the coup happened because all democratic means of removing Thaksin were subverted, or at least the generals didn't see anything that would have worked. In their eyes Thaksin clearly had no right to govern the country and they didn't trust, or couldn't wait for the only court case at the time that would have removed him - TRT dissolution case. Even when they created favourable conditions for justice to work its way it still took the court nine months to reach the veridict.

And should Abhisit- or for that matter, Sonthi- become next PM, whose opinion should matter most to the generals: that of the elected government- or that of Prem?

That's a loaded question if I ever I have seen one, I will have to keep my comments on that to myself due to Thai Visa rules regarding comments regarding a certain subject matter, but might offer the suggestion that Prem's comments are not entirely his own, so fear that this train of thought might be difficult to navigate to its full extent given the restrictions that we have here...

[chachachacha]

If you would take a moment to look past this event you will see that this is a very personal attack on Prem. Prem is not the issue here as I see it but more of a revenge attack. If there is anti-government, anti junta protests, why go after a person who transcends several governments including Thaksin's and for the most part is unchanged. Think what was going on just a year ago at this time when it became clear Thaksin was going after prem because he stood in his way. Prem is not the key to changing the country even that the TRT / PTV / Thaksin group would make you want to think. That lies with the Junta, and the PM at the moment.

Note the size of the rock in post #32, that had to be brought in as you would not find a rock that big just laying around in Bangkok. Even at an excavation site there is mostly if not all dirt and mud. This was clearly well planned and scripted in advanced.

As reported TRT members were seen paying people and in my mind this spells Thaksin. It is the only plan of action Thaksin has left, he has played all his cards as far as I can see. He is the only person that can benefit from this and can still fund it. The other lesser players PTV TRT have similar agendas because soon or later the will be at the top of the list of the bad boy hunters.

How can you make assumptions that Thaksin is involved?.This junta would blame him if the sky dropped in,use a little of your intelligence & wake up to the fact that you are starting to believe all the propergander that they are using to keep hold of power.

[wintermute]

If you would take a moment to look past this event you will see that this is a very personal attack on Prem. Prem is not the issue here as I see it but more of a revenge attack. If there is anti-government, anti junta protests, why go after a person who transcends several governments including Thaksin's and for the most part is unchanged. Think what was going on just a year ago at this time when it became clear Thaksin was going after prem because he stood in his way. Prem is not the key to changing the country even that the TRT / PTV / Thaksin group would make you want to think. That lies with the Junta, and the PM at the moment.

Note the size of the rock in post #32, that had to be brought in as you would not find a rock that big just laying around in Bangkok. Even at an excavation site there is mostly if not all dirt and mud. This was clearly well planned and scripted in advanced.

As reported TRT members were seen paying people and in my mind this spells Thaksin. It is the only plan of action Thaksin has left, he has played all his cards as far as I can see. He is the only person that can benefit from this and can still fund it. The other lesser players PTV TRT have similar agendas because soon or later the will be at the top of the list of the bad boy hunters.

How can you make assumptions that Thaksin is involved?.This junta would blame him if the sky dropped in,use a little of your intelligence & wake up to the fact that you are starting to believe all the propergander that they are using to keep hold of power.

The problem is the junta needs a larger than life scapegoat if they are indeed as incompetent as they seem to be. This means that they will be parading around the Thaksin excuses for a long time to come. I don't even see how the guy is relevant anymore. Thai politics has sort of moved on by now and even if he came back to Thailand i'd say his chances of dying from a mysterious close range lead injection are pretty high.

[John K]

If you would take a moment to look past this event you will see that this is a very personal attack on Prem. Prem is not the issue here as I see it but more of a revenge attack. If there is anti-government, anti junta protests, why go after a person who transcends several governments including Thaksin's and for the most part is unchanged. Think what was going on just a year ago at this time when it became clear Thaksin was going after prem because he stood in his way. Prem is not the key to changing the country even that the TRT / PTV / Thaksin group would make you want to think. That lies with the Junta, and the PM at the moment.

Note the size of the rock in post #32, that had to be brought in as you would not find a rock that big just laying around in Bangkok. Even at an excavation site there is mostly if not all dirt and mud. This was clearly well planned and scripted in advanced.

As reported TRT members were seen paying people and in my mind this spells Thaksin. It is the only plan of action Thaksin has left, he has played all his cards as far as I can see. He is the only person that can benefit from this and can still fund it. The other lesser players PTV TRT have similar agendas because soon or later the will be at the top of the list of the bad boy hunters.

How can you make assumptions that Thaksin is involved?.This junta would blame him if the sky dropped in,use a little of your intelligence & wake up to the fact that you are starting to believe all the propergander that they are using to keep hold of power.

Well I would start off by asking who this serves, and who has used the tactic of violence in the past. I think you will find only one name that makes both lists. However on that note, please provide me and others with information that suggests other answers.

[Mid]

Protest leaders agree to face police charges

Published on July 25, 2007

Nine protest organisers from the Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship will on Wednesday report to police to acknowledge charges relating to Sunday's rampage by anti-coup protestors who inflicted injuries on more than 200 civilians and policemen.

After court mediation on Wednesday, the nine organisers agreed to surrender or face warrants for their arrest.

The nine are Veera Musigapong, Jatuporn Phromphan, Jakrapob Penkair, Natawut Saikua, Weng Tojirakarn, Wiputalaeng Patanapumithai, Manit Jitchanklab, Apiwan Wiriyachai and Jaran Ditapichai.

In a Criminal Court hearing by presiding judge Wichai Changhuana, the Metropolitan Police Bureau applied for nine arrest warrants. The nine organisers filed a counter writ.

After reviewing arguments and rebuttals, Wichai offered to mediate and the parties agreed to his offer.

"This court wants to point out that the issuing of a warrant is meant for bringing a suspect into legal proceedings. Should the nine suspects volunteer to hear the charges, there will be no need to apprehend them," the judge said in his statement.

He then arranged for police to spell out the charges against the nine at 10am on Thursday. Should any of the nine fail to show up at Thursday's court-sponsored indictment, the arrest warrants would be activated.

Kesinee Taengkhio

The Nation

[blaze]

If you would take a moment to look past this event you will see that this is a very personal attack on Prem. Prem is not the issue here as I see it but more of a revenge attack. If there is anti-government, anti junta protests, why go after a person who transcends several governments including Thaksin's and for the most part is unchanged. Think what was going on just a year ago at this time when it became clear Thaksin was going after prem because he stood in his way. Prem is not the key to changing the country even that the TRT / PTV / Thaksin group would make you want to think. That lies with the Junta, and the PM at the moment.

Note the size of the rock in post #32, that had to be brought in as you would not find a rock that big just laying around in Bangkok. Even at an excavation site there is mostly if not all dirt and mud. This was clearly well planned and scripted in advanced.

As reported TRT members were seen paying people and in my mind this spells Thaksin. It is the only plan of action Thaksin has left, he has played all his cards as far as I can see. He is the only person that can benefit from this and can still fund it. The other lesser players PTV TRT have similar agendas because soon or later the will be at the top of the list of the bad boy hunters.

How can you make assumptions that Thaksin is involved?.This junta would blame him if the sky dropped in,use a little of your intelligence & wake up to the fact that you are starting to believe all the propergander that they are using to keep hold of power.

Well I would start off by asking who this serves, and who has used the tactic of violence in the past. I think you will find only one name that makes both lists. However on that note, please provide me and others with information that suggests other answers.

Many people other than politicians take politics very seriously. It is through the political process that their hopes and aspirations can be either acheived or dashed. In this case millions and millions of Thais saw the leader that they elected forced out of the country. Thaksin lost a job- these people lost the government they had elected to serve them. Do you think that just maybe some of them genuinely hate the junta? Including some who have a lot of money- Thaksin's constituency wasn't only paid off taxi drivers. Some had ideals. And money.

...IF in FACT anybody was paid off at all (recall the alleged attempt to bribe the constitutional court judges? Funny how that one kind of got swept under the rug- or did I miss something?)

[John K]

I don’t think you missed anything, and I think that comment about bribing the judges was more heat of the moment seeing as it came so shortly after the TRT ruling.

Clarify list with names.

Edited July 25, 2007 by John K

[Siripon]

If you would take a moment to look past this event you will see that this is a very personal attack on Prem. Prem is not the issue here as I see it but more of a revenge attack. If there is anti-government, anti junta protests, why go after a person who transcends several governments including Thaksin's and for the most part is unchanged. Think what was going on just a year ago at this time when it became clear Thaksin was going after prem because he stood in his way. Prem is not the key to changing the country even that the TRT / PTV / Thaksin group would make you want to think. That lies with the Junta, and the PM at the moment.

Note the size of the rock in post #32, that had to be brought in as you would not find a rock that big just laying around in Bangkok. Even at an excavation site there is mostly if not all dirt and mud. This was clearly well planned and scripted in advanced.

As reported TRT members were seen paying people and in my mind this spells Thaksin. It is the only plan of action Thaksin has left, he has played all his cards as far as I can see. He is the only person that can benefit from this and can still fund it. The other lesser players PTV TRT have similar agendas because soon or later the will be at the top of the list of the bad boy hunters.

How can you make assumptions that Thaksin is involved?.This junta would blame him if the sky dropped in,use a little of your intelligence & wake up to the fact that you are starting to believe all the propergander that they are using to keep hold of power.

Well I would start off by asking who this serves, and who has used the tactic of violence in the past. I think you will find only one name that makes both lists. However on that note, please provide me and others with information that suggests other answers.

Many people other than politicians take politics very seriously. It is through the political process that their hopes and aspirations can be either acheived or dashed. In this case millions and millions of Thais saw the leader that they elected forced out of the country. Thaksin lost a job- these people lost the government they had elected to serve them. Do you think that just maybe some of them genuinely hate the junta? Including some who have a lot of money- Thaksin's constituency wasn't only paid off taxi drivers. Some had ideals. And money.

...IF in FACT anybody was paid off at all (recall the alleged attempt to bribe the constitutional court judges? Funny how that one kind of got swept under the rug- or did I miss something?)

Thaksin didn't lose a job. He resigned by dissolving Parliament himself with a majority of 374 to 126 after just one year because he couldn't bear to face any questions regarding the Temasek deal.

The attempt to pay off the judges was an attempt to get TRT off the hook and the case may well come to court- if the evidence is compelling.

It's amusing to see Thaksin claim he can't come back to Thailand to face charges 'because the whole judicial system has been undermined by the coup'; yet he keeps hiring lawyers,( who argue amongst themselves as to who truly represents him), to file charges against the AEC etc.

Come on Frank, do you believe in the justice system or not?

[Plus]

And should Abhisit- or for that matter, Sonthi- become next PM, whose opinion should matter most to the generals: that of the elected government- or that of Prem?

The answer is really simple - Prem said it himself - the army belongs to the King, the government is the jokey, not the owner.

This arrangement is nothing new and it will not change in the foreseeable future. The plus side is that the army is usually not involved with running the country and the government usually has a free hand, and so will Abhisit or whoever else, as long as he does not appear to steer the herd away from the farm.

Like it or not but it has always been so and it will not change.

Many people other than politicians take politics very seriously. It is through the political process that their hopes and aspirations can be either acheived or dashed. In this case millions and millions of Thais saw the leader that they elected forced out of the country.

Generally people who voted Thaksin don't take politics seriously. Those who do, voted against him. Real ideological and political support for Thaksin was rather thin on the ground, around 10 even at the height of his popularity.

I take this figure from poll results, it's rather stable from poll to poll. No matter what the issue is, there will always be 10% who'd stick with Thaksin no matter what.

[blaze]

If you would take a moment to look past this event you will see that this is a very personal attack on Prem. Prem is not the issue here as I see it but more of a revenge attack. If there is anti-government, anti junta protests, why go after a person who transcends several governments including Thaksin's and for the most part is unchanged. Think what was going on just a year ago at this time when it became clear Thaksin was going after prem because he stood in his way. Prem is not the key to changing the country even that the TRT / PTV / Thaksin group would make you want to think. That lies with the Junta, and the PM at the moment.

Note the size of the rock in post #32, that had to be brought in as you would not find a rock that big just laying around in Bangkok. Even at an excavation site there is mostly if not all dirt and mud. This was clearly well planned and scripted in advanced.

As reported TRT members were seen paying people and in my mind this spells Thaksin. It is the only plan of action Thaksin has left, he has played all his cards as far as I can see. He is the only person that can benefit from this and can still fund it. The other lesser players PTV TRT have similar agendas because soon or later the will be at the top of the list of the bad boy hunters.

How can you make assumptions that Thaksin is involved?.This junta would blame him if the sky dropped in,use a little of your intelligence & wake up to the fact that you are starting to believe all the propergander that they are using to keep hold of power.

Well I would start off by asking who this serves, and who has used the tactic of violence in the past. I think you will find only one name that makes both lists. However on that note, please provide me and others with information that suggests other answers.

Many people other than politicians take politics very seriously. It is through the political process that their hopes and aspirations can be either acheived or dashed. In this case millions and millions of Thais saw the leader that they elected forced out of the country. Thaksin lost a job- these people lost the government they had elected to serve them. Do you think that just maybe some of them genuinely hate the junta? Including some who have a lot of money- Thaksin's constituency wasn't only paid off taxi drivers. Some had ideals. And money.

...IF in FACT anybody was paid off at all (recall the alleged attempt to bribe the constitutional court judges? Funny how that one kind of got swept under the rug- or did I miss something?)

Thaksin didn't lose a job. He resigned by dissolving Parliament himself with a majority of 374 to 126 after just one year because he couldn't bear to face any questions regarding the Temasek deal.

The attempt to pay off the judges was an attempt to get TRT off the hook and the case may well come to court- if the evidence is compelling.

It's amusing to see Thaksin claim he can't come back to Thailand to face charges 'because the whole judicial system has been undermined by the coup'; yet he keeps hiring lawyers,( who argue amongst themselves as to who truly represents him), to file charges against the AEC etc.

Come on Frank, do you believe in the justice system or not?

Thaksin did lose his job- he was Prime Minister of a caretaker government (caretaker pending elections) at the time the coup happened.

And who's Frank?

[Siripon]

Apologies Blaze, he resigned from a secure job with 3 years remaining on the contract to take up a temporary job with an indistinct future.

Now you know who Frank is surely? Of course the name is a misnomer, 'Frankless' would be far better.

[younghusband]

And should Abhisit- or for that matter, Sonthi- become next PM, whose opinion should matter most to the generals: that of the elected government- or that of Prem?

The answer is really simple - Prem said it himself - the army belongs to the King, the government is the jokey, not the owner.

This arrangement is nothing new and it will not change in the foreseeable future. The plus side is that the army is usually not involved with running the country and the government usually has a free hand, and so will Abhisit or whoever else, as long as he does not appear to steer the herd away from the farm.

Like it or not but it has always been so and it will not change.

Many people other than politicians take politics very seriously. It is through the political process that their hopes and aspirations can be either acheived or dashed. In this case millions and millions of Thais saw the leader that they elected forced out of the country.

Generally people who voted Thaksin don't take politics seriously. Those who do, voted against him. Real ideological and political support for Thaksin was rather thin on the ground, around 10 even at the height of his popularity.

I take this figure from poll results, it's rather stable from poll to poll. No matter what the issue is, there will always be 10% who'd stick with Thaksin no matter what.

There are a number of errors here.While the Thai armed forces obviously and correctly owe a prime loyalty to the monarch, they are also under the strategic direction of the civilian government.It is true that some senior officers have sought to establish an independence of action partly for honourable motives (the corruption and incompetence of some civilian governments) and partly dishonourable (retention of the srmy's huge business interests quite divorced from the welfare of the nation).

Mostly however the driving motive is the army's greed and incompetence.Thailand has one of the highest ratios of generals to enlisted men in the world.Generally it is poorly officered, incompetent and corrupt.The complete failure of the army in its main area of challenge, the troubled South, is obvious.As long as the army is unaccountable the drive for increased budgets will continue, and under the junta the army's secret allocations have risen exponentially.

Under a decent and representative government,say hypothetically that of Abhisit, the army would be directly accountable to the civilian administration.I expect they would resist bandying around rhetoric about higher loyalties and their duties to the nation.They might even get their way but the truth about their corruption, incompetence, bloated officer corps would be more apparent.Eventually they will be tamed as in Spain, Indonesia, Portugal etc.China is a different model but even there the PLA is firmly under the party's control.

[hammered]

And should Abhisit- or for that matter, Sonthi- become next PM, whose opinion should matter most to the generals: that of the elected government- or that of Prem?

The answer is really simple - Prem said it himself - the army belongs to the King, the government is the jokey, not the owner.

This arrangement is nothing new and it will not change in the foreseeable future. The plus side is that the army is usually not involved with running the country and the government usually has a free hand, and so will Abhisit or whoever else, as long as he does not appear to steer the herd away from the farm.

Like it or not but it has always been so and it will not change.

Many people other than politicians take politics very seriously. It is through the political process that their hopes and aspirations can be either acheived or dashed. In this case millions and millions of Thais saw the leader that they elected forced out of the country.

Generally people who voted Thaksin don't take politics seriously. Those who do, voted against him. Real ideological and political support for Thaksin was rather thin on the ground, around 10 even at the height of his popularity.

I take this figure from poll results, it's rather stable from poll to poll. No matter what the issue is, there will always be 10% who'd stick with Thaksin no matter what.

There are a number of errors here.While the Thai armed forces obviously and correctly owe a prime loyalty to the monarch, they are also under the strategic direction of the civilian government.It is true that some senior officers have sought to establish an independence of action partly for honourable motives (the corruption and incompetence of some civilian governments) and partly dishonourable (retention of the srmy's huge business interests quite divorced from the welfare of the nation).

Mostly however the driving motive is the army's greed and incompetence.Thailand has one of the highest ratios of generals to enlisted men in the world.Generally it is poorly officered, incompetent and corrupt.The complete failure of the army in its main area of challenge, the troubled South, is obvious.As long as the army is unaccountable the drive for increased budgets will continue, and under the junta the army's secret allocations have risen exponentially.

Under a decent and representative government,say hypothetically that of Abhisit, the army would be directly accountable to the civilian administration.I expect they would resist bandying around rhetoric about higher loyalties and their duties to the nation.They might even get their way but the truth about their corruption, incompetence, bloated officer corps would be more apparent.Eventually they will be tamed as in Spain, Indonesia, Portugal etc.China is a different model but even there the PLA is firmly under the party's control.

Abhisit may not find it that easy to habve total control over the military. The experineced Chuan had to put in place military approved defence ministers in his administrations.

Having said that Thailand is not unique in developing countries in having a military power block with influemce beyond military matters. Sometimes this surfaces in coups at other times it remains hidden but still there. Turkey, Pakistan, Philippines etc all spring to mind. I doubt seriously if that will disappear or become very hidden until the countries including Thailand reach a stage of development as the previously mentioned Spain, Portugal (and Greece) did not that long ago. Then again they were all in the EU or aspirants to it which had an effect. It may just be that Thailand and countries like it will have competing power blocks outside of the elected one for quite some time.

[younghusband]

And should Abhisit- or for that matter, Sonthi- become next PM, whose opinion should matter most to the generals: that of the elected government- or that of Prem?

The answer is really simple - Prem said it himself - the army belongs to the King, the government is the jokey, not the owner.

This arrangement is nothing new and it will not change in the foreseeable future. The plus side is that the army is usually not involved with running the country and the government usually has a free hand, and so will Abhisit or whoever else, as long as he does not appear to steer the herd away from the farm.

Like it or not but it has always been so and it will not change.

Many people other than politicians take politics very seriously. It is through the political process that their hopes and aspirations can be either acheived or dashed. In this case millions and millions of Thais saw the leader that they elected forced out of the country.

Generally people who voted Thaksin don't take politics seriously. Those who do, voted against him. Real ideological and political support for Thaksin was rather thin on the ground, around 10 even at the height of his popularity.

I take this figure from poll results, it's rather stable from poll to poll. No matter what the issue is, there will always be 10% who'd stick with Thaksin no matter what.

There are a number of errors here.While the Thai armed forces obviously and correctly owe a prime loyalty to the monarch, they are also under the strategic direction of the civilian government.It is true that some senior officers have sought to establish an independence of action partly for honourable motives (the corruption and incompetence of some civilian governments) and partly dishonourable (retention of the srmy's huge business interests quite divorced from the welfare of the nation).

Mostly however the driving motive is the army's greed and incompetence.Thailand has one of the highest ratios of generals to enlisted men in the world.Generally it is poorly officered, incompetent and corrupt.The complete failure of the army in its main area of challenge, the troubled South, is obvious.As long as the army is unaccountable the drive for increased budgets will continue, and under the junta the army's secret allocations have risen exponentially.

Under a decent and representative government,say hypothetically that of Abhisit, the army would be directly accountable to the civilian administration.I expect they would resist bandying around rhetoric about higher loyalties and their duties to the nation.They might even get their way but the truth about their corruption, incompetence, bloated officer corps would be more apparent.Eventually they will be tamed as in Spain, Indonesia, Portugal etc.China is a different model but even there the PLA is firmly under the party's control.

Abhisit may not find it that easy to habve total control over the military. The experineced Chuan had to put in place military approved defence ministers in his administrations.

Having said that Thailand is not unique in developing countries in having a military power block with influemce beyond military matters. Sometimes this surfaces in coups at other times it remains hidden but still there. Turkey, Pakistan, Philippines etc all spring to mind. I doubt seriously if that will disappear or become very hidden until the countries including Thailand reach a stage of development as the previously mentioned Spain, Portugal (and Greece) did not that long ago. Then again they were all in the EU or aspirants to it which had an effect. It may just be that Thailand and countries like it will have competing power blocks outside of the elected one for quite some time.

Thanks for your thoughtful response.I actually agree that Abhisit would have a difficult job, but Thailand, notwithstanding Plus's fantasy that nothing ever changes in feudal Thailand, is not preserved in aspic.It will be a slow and frustrating process but eventually Thailand will reach the status of say Turkey-to use one of your examples -where there is a reasonable understanding between the armed forces and civilian government.What enrages me in Thailand is the grotesque discrepancy between the high flown rhetoric of the army and the reality that it is led by mainly corrupt incompetents who wave the nation's flag to cover their greed and ambition.But as you suggest the rhetoric is nothing more than a piece of low rent third worldery.

[steveromagnino]

If you would take a moment to look past this event you will see that this is a very personal attack on Prem. Prem is not the issue here as I see it but more of a revenge attack. If there is anti-government, anti junta protests, why go after a person who transcends several governments including Thaksin's and for the most part is unchanged. Think what was going on just a year ago at this time when it became clear Thaksin was going after prem because he stood in his way. Prem is not the key to changing the country even that the TRT / PTV / Thaksin group would make you want to think. That lies with the Junta, and the PM at the moment.

As reported TRT members were seen paying people and in my mind this spells Thaksin. It is the only plan of action Thaksin has left, he has played all his cards as far as I can see. He is the only person that can benefit from this and can still fund it. The other lesser players PTV TRT have similar agendas because soon or later the will be at the top of the list of the bad boy hunters.

How can you make assumptions that Thaksin is involved?.This junta would blame him if the sky dropped in,use a little of your intelligence & wake up to the fact that you are starting to believe all the propergander that they are using to keep hold of power.

6 weeks ago, a number of members of the press and associated with the press directly alledgedly heard PTV activist and former TRT spokesman Jakupop comment that he had received 40 million baht to continue the PTV and protests from a nondeplume nickname which could only mean Taksin.

Those attending were alledgedly very surprised that the cost of buying his support had been so cheap.

I personally very strongly believe what was alledgedly said. For various alledged reasons. This is in direct keeping with my dealings of other PR types and advisors to Taksin over the years; I have watched a number of them alledgedly take payments directly and indirectly, and alledgedly have been offered similar deals to provide education services to various people in return for various cuts and whatever. I didn't take any of those, because once one's hands are dirty there is no going back.

As presumably Jakupop prefers.

For further information, the Duncan McCargo article Network Mxxxxxxy printed a couple of years back is full IMHO of suposition and some fanciful story telling; however the bit is does well is to lay out the impact on non democratic interference at various times, specifically in overthrowing a number of military dictatorships such as 1991/92, and also in breaking down the Chavalit and Banharn 'jao por' style governments to usher in Chuan 1 and then attempt to keep him in power. Let us not forget that Pa Prem has been a non elected prime minister before.

McCargo feels, and I agree to some extent, that this type of action led to TRT figuring out ways to ensure that they would be able to get a mandate to do more than any previous government through an absolute majority, inability to censure the PM, huge working class support and removal of checks and balances - free press, corruption watchdogs, deregulation committees, etc - then with the previous system dismantled, they would be able to do what they wanted.

And we've seen pretty clearly with military officer stacking, asset sales to themselves, the airport, the scams related to virtually every major TRT initiative (30b healthcare, poor housing, crackdown on dark forces, PTT listing, property taxes, birdflu management, state loans, etc) and attempts to create new personal business lines (airport licensing, attempts to list EGAT, casino proposal, football Liverpool proposal, advertising in the underground, FTA negotiation with Australia/China/India, etc) while removing non favoured business rivals (distribution of contracts with lack of transparent bidding, telco deregulation, etc) EXACTLY what they had in mind.

Too bad then that the force they attempted to remove has come back to haunt them. And not surprising then that they would launch an attack against that.

This is a last gasp shot; TRT has lost many of the factions loyal to them, they do not and would not have a majority anymore without Sanoh, Khunpluem, Suriya, Banharn etc support. In fact..thinking back....without those factions...did they ever??

I do not take political advice or agree from taxi drivers and paid off rice farmers. But ultimately, any new party must deliver what those groups want, and listen to them and give them what they need, if they expect to get anywhere.

Past leaders such as Kukrit Pramote have done so without personal enrichment. Let's hope someone else will.

[younghusband]

I am intrigued to know whether M.L Nattakorn's opinion piece "Double standards against protestors" in today's Bangkok Post will be posted.

[Ricardo]

Thanks for your thoughtful response.I actually agree that Abhisit would have a difficult job, but Thailand, notwithstanding Plus's fantasy that nothing ever changes in feudal Thailand, is not preserved in aspic.It will be a slow and frustrating process but eventually Thailand will reach the status of say Turkey-to use one of your examples -where there is a reasonable understanding between the armed forces and civilian government.What enrages me in Thailand is the grotesque discrepancy between the high flown rhetoric of the army and the reality that it is led by mainly corrupt incompetents who wave the nation's flag to cover their greed and ambition.But as you suggest the rhetoric is nothing more than a piece of low rent third worldery.

Strong words indeed - but containing a lot of sense IMHO.

Substitute Thaksin/TRT for army and it sums up much of the civilian side of things too.

But Prem, like his boss, or perhaps because of him, generally stands aside from it all, which is why I worry when the mob take him as their target. I seem to recall that it was some fairly straight talking to army-cadets, about their duty to put king & country ahead of personal interests, that so-enraged Thaksin, in the first place. For some reason ... he seemed to take it personally.

[Plus]

Mostly however the driving motive is the army's greed and incompetence....

Among the bulk of the corps - maybe yes, at the very top - no. They put the best they have at the very top, if only just for show. You can't say that Sondhi and Surayud are driven by greed and incompetence and keep a straight face.

People make careers in the army and historically the army had some very lucrative industries to themselves, like illegal logging or drug trafficing, but that is a sideline business. Their prime allegiance is to the King. Most of the time these to lines of work do not interfere with each other.

.... notwithstanding Plus's fantasy that nothing ever changes in feudal Thailand, is not preserved in aspic.

What precisely is going to change in the army? Allegiance to the monarchy? Amount of rhetoric?

If you look for real changes - Surayud was the best Army Chief Thailand ever had - he trimmed down the forces and introduced meritocracy and professionalism.

With leaders like that the only thing that will change is the amount of corruption, which is not a bad thing, wouldn't you agree?

Army slice of government budget has been reduced by about 10% in the past decade, and increased by 3% after the coup. I think it's closer to the real figure now, closer to their real needs.

And people must accept that the coup had tradeoffs - many officers who took Sondhi's side expect something in return. It's not that much and after elections army involvement in business will be decreased again.

[ColPyat]

This is a last gasp shot; TRT has lost many of the factions loyal to them, they do not and would not have a majority anymore without Sanoh, Khunpluem, Suriya, Banharn etc support. In fact..thinking back....without those factions...did they ever??

You are right in many parts of your posts, but you are very wrong in linking the UDD directly to TRT or Thaksin's aims. PTV is definitely pro Thaksin, but the aims of the UDD go much further than that. You would not have known Thaksin critics (and far earlier and more fundamental and principled Thaksin critics than Sondhi and Chamlong) such as Dr. Weng, Jaran, Pateep and some other groups have joined together if it would just be a vehicle to restore Thaksin back to power. Which even the pro Thaksin groups know to be me than unlikely at the present time. The are realist enough.

Their aim is a complete system change, or better, an initiation of something that will take a very long time to achieve. Their attacks against Prem is to be seen as breaking a previous taboo in Thailand. Prem never was criticized in public, nobody dared to until now.

There are a few very interesting years ahead of us. Things are in a constant flux at the moment, and in reality Thaksin plays a ever lesser role in the political struggle now, unless you just believe in public statements of both sides.

[steveromagnino]

This is a last gasp shot; TRT has lost many of the factions loyal to them, they do not and would not have a majority anymore without Sanoh, Khunpluem, Suriya, Banharn etc support. In fact..thinking back....without those factions...did they ever??

You are right in many parts of your posts, but you are very wrong in linking the UDD directly to TRT or Thaksin's aims. PTV is definitely pro Thaksin, but the aims of the UDD go much further than that. You would not have known Thaksin critics (and far earlier and more fundamental and principled Thaksin critics than Sondhi and Chamlong) such as Dr. Weng, Jaran, Pateep and some other groups have joined together if it would just be a vehicle to restore Thaksin back to power. Which even the pro Thaksin groups know to be me than unlikely at the present time. The are realist enough.

Yes, my own closed view really only looked at the PTV type guys, who have pretty much ruined the purpose I understood of the protests when they went back to the Newin style paid mobs from upcountry approach.

There really are 3 groups at the moment, the junta and their supporters or at least people who will tolerate how things are being run at the moment (ie. status quo); the anti junta pro system change group and the anti junta bring back Taksin or at least stop him getting prosecuted group.

The last 2 have got rolled together in most people's minds who are watching are hearing the idiots from PTV and then getting reruns sitting in cabs talking to the intellectual elite who drive us around for 35b or vox props from farmers who are earning more sitting around in BKK than if they were working hard on a rice paddy in the rainy season.

All I want is a group of politicians that will create genuine prosperity for the working class so, as a member of the middle class, I can getz rich yo.

Taksin wasn't it. Most of the people before him weren't it. The constitution is only part of it; what we need are the right people stepping up to bat; and for good people NOT to do nothing when the wrong people come to the plate.

[Ricardo]

And who's Frank?

This nickname refers to a former caretaker-PM, who claims to have now completely quit Thai politics, although not everybody believes him, based on experience of previous promises.

It was coined by the fans of Manchester City FC, to apply to their apparent saviour, and derives from the similarity of his surname to Sinatra, another mob-linked character.

'Nuff said ?

[tijnebijn]

Very interesting read people . A good read to try to take the puzzle peaces together .

Nobody really can see the 'real' disturbences at work here . Some are talking about mobs ,

this is probably the problem , do not count out where the mob all may be , it is not only in the TRT corner .

The problem are the ultra rich , the people playing the game to have more power and also to keep

some of their powers . We also should look at the way how chinese culture works here .

Why , well easy it is all dominated by chinese and through chinese thais . They have their own way of doing business',

very clever they are , the thai themselves are just happy to have a peace of the cake , the chinese want to

have stardom , never enough .

[ColPyat]

This is a last gasp shot; TRT has lost many of the factions loyal to them, they do not and would not have a majority anymore without Sanoh, Khunpluem, Suriya, Banharn etc support. In fact..thinking back....without those factions...did they ever??

You are right in many parts of your posts, but you are very wrong in linking the UDD directly to TRT or Thaksin's aims. PTV is definitely pro Thaksin, but the aims of the UDD go much further than that. You would not have known Thaksin critics (and far earlier and more fundamental and principled Thaksin critics than Sondhi and Chamlong) such as Dr. Weng, Jaran, Pateep and some other groups have joined together if it would just be a vehicle to restore Thaksin back to power. Which even the pro Thaksin groups know to be me than unlikely at the present time. The are realist enough.

Yes, my own closed view really only looked at the PTV type guys, who have pretty much ruined the purpose I understood of the protests when they went back to the Newin style paid mobs from upcountry approach.

There really are 3 groups at the moment, the junta and their supporters or at least people who will tolerate how things are being run at the moment (ie. status quo); the anti junta pro system change group and the anti junta bring back Taksin or at least stop him getting prosecuted group.

The last 2 have got rolled together in most people's minds who are watching are hearing the idiots from PTV and then getting reruns sitting in cabs talking to the intellectual elite who drive us around for 35b or vox props from farmers who are earning more sitting around in BKK than if they were working hard on a rice paddy in the rainy season.

All I want is a group of politicians that will create genuine prosperity for the working class so, as a member of the middle class, I can getz rich yo.

Taksin wasn't it. Most of the people before him weren't it. The constitution is only part of it; what we need are the right people stepping up to bat; and for good people NOT to do nothing when the wrong people come to the plate.

No, Thaksin wasn't it. He slipped somewhat into that role of savior for the poor without even intending to, and of course far from able to fulfill it.

A group of politicians, or a party that will create genuine prosperity for the poor is far away in Thailand. The people were there, and still are there, but they will not be given a chance under the present status quo. The next elections won't bring such into power, and the proposed constitution gives the status quo so much power that even if some of those people would be elected, they wouldn't be able to do anything worthwhile.

Anyhow, the medias might portray the protests as Newin style mobs, but that is only true to a very small extend. There are many things that don't make it into the media nowadays.

As to farmers and the rainy season, well, depends very much in which area of the country people are living. Many areas upcountry have received very little rain, and there simply is no crops to plant. And additionally, taking away the rice subsidies gives so little profit to a small scale rice farmer that he in many cases is better of working in Bangkok than getting into even deeper debt on his farm.