Russia's War in Ukraine Began in Crimea and Could End There, Defense Experts Say

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The war in Ukraine, which began with the annexation of Crimea, might very well see its conclusion in the same region. Defense experts highlight that Ukraine's recent successes in Crimea signal a potentially decisive turn in the conflict against Russia.

 

At the beginning of the year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy underscored the strategic importance of Crimea and the Black Sea, emphasizing that reclaiming the peninsula would be a central objective. Success in this area would not only be a strategic victory but also a significant psychological blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

 

"Russia's defeat in Crimea would be not just a defeat, but a humiliation," stated Olga Khvostunova, a fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. This sentiment echoes the dramatic events of February 2014, when unmarked Russian forces, known as "little green men," swiftly took control of Crimea, culminating in its annexation by Russia's Federal Assembly by the end of March that year. The ensuing conflict in the Donbas region began shortly thereafter.

 

Zelenskyy has consistently maintained that any peace agreement must include the return of Crimea to Ukraine. In recent weeks, Ukraine has executed a series of successful attacks in the region, targeting Russian air-defense systems and the Belbek airfield near Sevastopol. Elina Beketova, a democracy fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, attributed these successes to thorough preparation, enhanced capabilities of the Ukrainian defense forces, and intelligence support from NATO allies.

 

Ukraine, which lost its traditional naval fleet during the annexation of Crimea, has effectively targeted Russia's Black Sea Fleet using sea drones. These attacks have disrupted Russian naval operations, allowing Ukraine to resume vital grain shipments through the Black Sea. The impact of these operations forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet to relocate some activities away from its base in Sevastopol.

 

One of the most significant successes was the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, the Moskva. "Crimea is the key to Russia's Black Sea access and operations," said Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program. She explained that controlling Crimea enables power projection over the Black Sea, making it crucial for Ukraine to deter Russian naval positions there.

Beketova further noted that Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet aim to deprive Russian forces of a strategic base for launching attacks on mainland Ukraine and to disrupt logistical support for Russian troops in the occupied southern territories of Ukraine.

 

The Kerch Bridge, which links mainland Russia to Crimea, stands as a powerful symbol of Russia's annexation. Its destruction would be both a strategic and symbolic victory for Ukraine and a major blow to Putin. Despite two previous attempts, Ukraine has not yet managed to destroy the bridge. However, Ukrainian officials remain determined, with plans to target the bridge again this year.

 

Russia is evidently concerned about the threat to the Kerch Bridge. The UK Ministry of Defence recently reported that Russia has installed barges to protect the bridge from potential Ukrainian attacks. Additionally, Russia is constructing a railway line from Rostov-on-Don to Crimea to reduce reliance on the bridge, indicating Putin's acknowledgment of the vulnerability.

 

Dmitry Pletenchuk, a spokesman for Ukraine's southern military command, interpreted this as a recognition that the Crimean Bridge is doomed. Historically, Crimea holds significant sentimental value for Russia, dating back to its annexation by Russian Empress Catherine the Great in 1783. During the Soviet era, it was a beloved vacation destination, cementing its place in Russian national memory.

 

The reality of the conflict hit home for many Russians in 2022, when massive explosions at the Saki air base brought the war to vacationing Russians, who captured the event on video from beach huts. Tourist numbers in Crimea have since plummeted, with significant economic repercussions.

 

Strategically, Ukraine's focus on Crimea, particularly targeting Russian ground-based air-defense (GBAD) systems, is seen as "preparing the ground" for future air strikes once F-16 fighter jets arrive. Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, emphasized that Crimea's limited maneuver space makes it particularly vulnerable.

 

"Putin has a lot to lose both politically and militarily," Mertens said. He suggested that a limited number of fighters could have a significant impact on the region and the Black Sea if Ukraine can neutralize Crimea's air defenses.

 

Russia has responded by relocating its most advanced S-500 air-defense system to Crimea to protect against such threats. According to Ukraine's spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, this move underscores the critical importance of Crimea to Russia's military strategy.

 

"Russia cannot afford to lose Crimea," Snegovaya reiterated, suggesting that the peninsula could serve as a crucial bargaining chip in future negotiations. Beketova added that regaining control of the Black Sea and Crimea, or exerting enough pressure to threaten Russian control, could potentially mark the end of the war.

 

In conclusion, as Ukraine continues to target strategic assets in Crimea and the Black Sea, the region's significance in the broader conflict becomes increasingly apparent. The outcome of these efforts could determine the future trajectory of the war, potentially leading to a resolution that sees Crimea returned to Ukraine.

 

Credit: Business Insider 2024-06-18

 

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[Danderman123]

There is a new rail line into Crimea from Russia. When that is destroyed, the end is near for the Russians in Crimea.

[beautifulthailand99]

The Wilson Center chartered by Congress has an interesting paper. (ahem Israel , Ulster, Gibraltar, The Falkland Islands etc etc l!) The reason Putin got away with the annexation is most western governments de facto accepted it based on historical truths.

 

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/why-did-russia-give-away-crimea-sixty-years-ago

 

Crimea was part of Russia from 1783, when the Tsarist Empire annexed it a decade after defeating Ottoman forces in the Battle of Kozludzha, until 1954, when the Soviet government transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics (RSFSR) to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR). The transfer was announced in the Soviet press in late February 1954, eight days after the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet adopted a resolution authorizing the move on 19 February

 

 

Hence, in 1954, Crimea was more “Russian” than it had been for centuries. Although Crimea is briefly contiguous with southern Ukraine via the Isthmus of Perekop, the large eastern Kerch region of Crimea is very close to Russia. The peninsula did have important economic and infrastructural ties with Ukraine, but cultural ties were much stronger overall with Russia than with Ukraine, and Crimea was the site of major military bases from Tsarist times on, having become a symbol of Imperial Russian military power against the Ottoman Turk

 

The BBC used to be much more neutral in its reportage. John Simpson took a lot of flak for this.

 

 

Edited June 18 by beautifulthailand99

[rabas]

 

So, Crimea was officially transferred to the Republic of Ukraine! ... But why?

 

You conveniently avoid this question by quoting further down at "Hence, in 1954, Crimea was more “Russian” than..."    You omit the reason that 'Hence' refers to!, which is:

 

"A sizable population of Tatars had lived in Crimea for centuries until May 1944, when they were deported en masse by the Stalinist regime to barren sites in Central Asia, where they were compelled to live for more than four decades and were prohibited from returning to their homeland. Stalin also forcibly deported smaller populations of Armenians, Bulgarians, and Greeks from Crimea, completing the ethnic cleansing of the peninsula. Hence, ..."
 
So the real reason? Ethnic cleansing!

 

The paper further concludes that Crimea was only absorbed into the USSR because Russia had cleansed the original inhabitants so no need for Crimea to remain an autonomous republic.