French voters are heading to the polls for the third time in a month, with the nation on high alert as the far-right National Rally (RN) might seize control of the government. This possibility seemed highly likely after the first round of voting, but has since diminished due to strategic candidate withdrawals in about 200 constituencies, aimed at concentrating the anti-RN vote. However, these projections are uncertain, as the extent to which voters will follow their party leaders' directives remains unclear.

 

In order to form an anti-RN barrier, many centrist voters will have to support the far left, particularly the New Popular Front, despite their disdain for them. Similarly, many left-wing voters will have to back the Macronites, whom they also despise. Meanwhile, the far-right vote could be energized by the perception that the RN, now the largest party in France, is once again being kept from power by an establishment conspiracy.

The ultimate outcome will only be determined at the end of the day. The big question remains: how likely is it that France will wake up on Monday morning with a far-right government?

 

This dramatic scenario has dominated media headlines, discussions in the EU in Brussels, and conversations in government offices across Europe following the first round of France’s parliamentary vote last week. Despite the impressive performance of Marine Le Pen’s RN, the short answer is that an RN majority is possible, though not probable. French centrist and leftist parties have strategically withdrawn candidates to support each other’s contenders ahead of the decisive second round on Sunday. Regardless of the RN's success in securing an outright majority, the impact of this election will be significant. Jordan Bardella, the RN's young, social media-savvy president, might not become France’s new prime minister, but RN is almost guaranteed to win more seats than any other political grouping.

 

This means a long-standing taboo in France, a core EU nation, will be broken. The EU, born out of the aftermath of World War Two as a peace project, with France and Germany at its core, has traditionally kept far-right parties on the fringes of European politics. Last month, world leaders gathered in northern France to commemorate the 80th anniversary of D-Day, the allied amphibious assault in Normandy that contributed to the defeat of Nazi Germany. Yet today, far-right, hard-right, or populist nationalist parties are part of coalition governments in several EU countries, including the Netherlands, Italy, and Finland.

 

Labeling these parties is challenging because their policies often change and vary by country. This normalization of far-right parties isn't entirely new. Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, a center-right politician, was the first EU leader to form a government with a post-fascist political group, Movimento Sociale Italiano, in 1994. Six years later, Austria’s conservatives entered into a coalition with the far-right Freedom Party, causing the EU to block official bilateral contacts with Austria for several months.

 

Post-war political etiquette dictated that the political mainstream should form a "cordon sanitaire" to keep the extreme right out of European governments. This practice is so strongly associated with France that the term itself is French, illustrating the nation's strong feelings about it. In the 2002 Presidential election, some French voters even symbolically clipped clothes pegs to their noses while voting for a candidate they disliked just to keep out the far right. This far right was once led by Marine Le Pen’s father, who had former members of a Nazi-led Waffen SS unit in his party ranks.

 

Fast forward to 2024, and Marine Le Pen’s decade-long effort to detoxify her father’s party—changing its name and working to improve its image—appears to have succeeded. The cordon sanitaire has been significantly breached after the leader of France’s center-right Les Républicains struck a deal with the RN to not compete against each other in certain constituencies. This is a political earthquake in France. Crucially, Le Pen’s supporters are no longer embarrassed to admit their allegiance. The RN is no longer seen as an extremist protest movement but as offering a credible political program, despite criticism.

 

French voters now trust the RN more than any other party to manage the economy and public finances, according to an Ipsos poll for the Financial Times, despite the party's lack of government experience and largely unfunded tax-cutting and spending plans. This begs the question: if traditional lawmakers had better served their electorates, perhaps European populists would have less of an opening.

 

Populists like Le Pen claim to represent "ordinary people" against "the establishment," a narrative that resonates when voters feel anxious and ignored by those in power. Similar patterns can be seen with Donald Trump in the US, the unexpected breakthrough of Reform UK in the recent UK election, and the success of Germany’s controversial anti-migration AfD party. In France, many perceive President Macron as arrogant, privileged, and disconnected from the everyday lives of ordinary people outside the Paris bubble. His efforts to lower unemployment and spend billions to mitigate the economic impacts of the Covid and energy crises seem largely forgotten.

 

Meanwhile, the RN focused its campaign on the cost-of-living crisis, promising to cut taxes on gas and electricity and raise the minimum wage for low earners. Such priorities lead RN supporters to argue that the party should no longer be labeled far-right, pointing to a growing support base and distancing from its racist roots under Le Pen senior.

 

A similar argument is heard from Rome, where Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, once a supporter of fascist dictator Benito Mussolini, now leads a stable EU government. She has publicly condemned fascist salutes and emphasized that her party has no place for nostalgia for totalitarian regimes. Despite criticism at home for her stance on LGBTQ+ rights and media influence, her proposals on irregular migration have won praise from mainstream European figures, including EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and the UK’s recently ousted prime minister, Rishi Sunak.

 

On contentious issues like migration, it is increasingly difficult to distinguish between the rhetoric of the far right and that of traditional mainstream politicians who are sharpening their speeches to retain voters. Examples include former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Macron, who have both adopted tougher stances as right-wing popularity grows. This mainstream mimicry inadvertently legitimizes anti-immigration parties, making them appear more respectable and electable. Geert Wilders' recent success in the Netherlands is a testament to this trend.

 

The label "far right" is complex and context-dependent, varying with each party's composition and policies. While Meloni has gained broader acceptance, Le Pen's RN still struggles with full international legitimacy. The RN believes a parliamentary majority is still possible this Sunday, but more likely outcomes include a hung parliament or a coalition government excluding Le Pen's party. Any of these scenarios would significantly weaken Macron's presidency.

 

Political instability in France and Germany during a time of global uncertainty, with wars in Gaza and Ukraine and the potential return of EU and NATO skeptic Donald Trump, leaves Europe without strong leadership. Voters feel exposed and vulnerable. Regardless of the immediate outcome, Le Pen's supporters are confident that their time is coming soon.

 

Credit: BBC 2024-07-08

 

Get our Daily Newsletter - Click HERE to subscribe

who are the ones rioting in france the past couple days ? 

Edited July 7, 20242 yr by stoner

3 hours ago, stoner said:

who are the ones rioting in france the past couple days ? 

 

French nationals want their country back.Forced migration by the left is being rejected!

Viva le Pen

 

Paris is burning: Rioting leftists besiege French capital after populist National Rally party victory

 

https://nypost.com/2024/07/01/world-news/leftists-riot-in-france-after-national-rally-party-victory/

46 minutes ago, riclag said:

 

French nationals want their country back.Forced migration by the left is being rejected!

Viva le Pen

 

Paris is burning: Rioting leftists besiege French capital after populist National Rally party victory

 

https://nypost.com/2024/07/01/world-news/leftists-riot-in-france-after-national-rally-party-victory/

More B.S. from you  as usual!

RN failed! 😀

Edited July 7, 20242 yr by candide

23 minutes ago, candide said:

More B.S. from you  as usual!

RN failed! 😀

What you expect he is a Trumpster.

3 hours ago, riclag said:

 

French nationals want their country back.Forced migration by the left is being rejected!

Viva le Pen

 

Paris is burning: Rioting leftists besiege French capital after populist National Rally party victory

 

https://nypost.com/2024/07/01/world-news/leftists-riot-in-france-after-national-rally-party-victory/

You want to rephrase that?

 

 

"The result of Sunday’s parliamentary election runoff comes as a huge surprise, with France appearing to be on the verge of a major political shift – but not the one everyone was expecting. No pollster predicted before Sunday that a left-wing alliance would win and that the far right would come in third place. This is a shocking reversal of the outcome of the first round of voting, if tonight’s results match the projections."

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/france-election-runoff-results-07-07-24-intl/index.html

A trolling post removed. 

Their president is one smart guy called them on it and le pen….putin failed good!👍 

Results are out. the right are in third place. It'll have to be a coalition of the left.