Warning Signs of US Recession: A Potential Setback for Kamala Harris

[JustMyOpinion]

On 8/16/2024 at 5:34 AM, Tug said:

are you referring to private health plans?anyway can you direct me as to were this tidbit can be found?

ForbesBusinessPolicy

11 Years Of ACA/ObamaCare, 11 Years Of Rising Costs

Josh Archambault

Contributor

The Apothecary

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Mar 23, 2021,12:30pm EDT

 

This article is more than 3 years old.

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Eleven years of ObamaCare have done little to combat the ever-increasing cost of health care insurance for the American middle class. D.C.’s so-called solution is the “American Rescue Plan” that transfers even more money out of taxpayers’ wallets and to insurance companies.

 

MIAMI, FLORIDA - JANUARY 28: Pedestrians walk past the Leading Insurance Agency, which offers plans ... [+]

Getty Images

 

The difficult-to-fathom $1.9 trillion law allocates tens of billions to make ObamaCare insurance subsidies even more substantial. At face value that may sound like a good way to help consumers, but it just proves once again that Congress views subsidies as a hammer for which high health care costs look like a nail. Unfortunately, it will be the taxpayers paying for this, while insurance companies and hospitals keep charging higher and higher prices.

 

Washington has just written a blank check to the biggest players in health care for at least two years and these subsidies just cover up problems that will only get worse. The twisted logic of the bill even grants more assistance to higher-income enrollees, compared to those with lower incomes.

 

To make matters worse, the subsidy expansion will result in millions of workers losing their employer-based insurance. It will crowd out private spending on health coverage as some employers drop coverage and switch employees off employer-based coverage to taxpayer-subsidized coverage.

 

It is an inefficient way to help a very small group of people while ignoring the many issues that are making health care unaffordable for so many Americans—but it makes for an efficient headline.

Looking ahead, the two-year subsidy expansion will give hospitals and insurance companies enough time to pressure Congress into spending billions more to line their pockets in perpetuity. This time and money would be better spent on expanding price transparency efforts. Eleven years with ObamaCare, and health care is still one of the only industries that surprises its customers with the final bill.

[JustMyOpinion]

On 8/16/2024 at 5:36 AM, placeholder said:

More nonsense from you. Maybe  you're quoting unsubsidiized prices.

 

"The IRA and ARPA’s enhanced health insurance subsidies both increase the amount of financial help available to those already eligible for assistance under the ACA and also newly expand subsidies to middle-income people (with incomes over four times the poverty level, $103,280 for a family of three in 2024), many of whom were previously priced out of coverage. These subsidies, combined with increased funding for outreach and marketing, have led to record-high enrollment in the ACA Marketplaces."

https://www.kff.org/affordable-care-act/issue-brief/inflation-reduction-act-health-insurance-subsidies-what-is-their-impact-and-what-would-happen-if-they-expire/#:~:text=The IRA and ARPA's enhanced,three in 2024)%2C many of

 

Subsidies just transfer the cost from individuals who cannot afford their premiums to the taxpayer... it does NOT lower the premium.  

ForbesBusinessPolicy

11 Years Of ACA/ObamaCare, 11 Years Of Rising Costs

Josh Archambault

Contributor

The Apothecary

Contributor Group

Follow

Mar 23, 2021,12:30pm EDT

This article is more than 3 years old.

Eleven years of ObamaCare have done little to combat the ever-increasing cost of health care insurance for the American middle class. D.C.’s so-called solution is the “American Rescue Plan” that transfers even more money out of taxpayers’ wallets and to insurance companies.

MIAMI, FLORIDA - JANUARY 28: Pedestrians walk past the Leading Insurance Agency, which offers plans ... [+]

Getty Images

The difficult-to-fathom $1.9 trillion law allocates tens of billions to make ObamaCare insurance subsidies even more substantial. At face value that may sound like a good way to help consumers, but it just proves once again that Congress views subsidies as a hammer for which high health care costs look like a nail. Unfortunately, it will be the taxpayers paying for this, while insurance companies and hospitals keep charging higher and higher prices.

Washington has just written a blank check to the biggest players in health care for at least two years and these subsidies just cover up problems that will only get worse. The twisted logic of the bill even grants more assistance to higher-income enrollees, compared to those with lower incomes.

To make matters worse, the subsidy expansion will result in millions of workers losing their employer-based insurance. It will crowd out private spending on health coverage as some employers drop coverage and switch employees off employer-based coverage to taxpayer-subsidized coverage.

It is an inefficient way to help a very small group of people while ignoring the many issues that are making health care unaffordable for so many Americans—but it makes for an efficient headline.

Looking ahead, the two-year subsidy expansion will give hospitals and insurance companies enough time to pressure Congress into spending billions more to line their pockets in perpetuity. This time and money would be better spent on expanding price transparency efforts. Eleven years with ObamaCare, and health care is still one of the only industries that surprises its customers with the final bill.

[Cryingdick]

Walmarts had great numbers when they reported. So we must be doing okay. 

[bkk6060]

Pretty stupid there will be no recession.  Millions of homeowners with big equity will refinance when rates go down.

Putting that cash out from their homes back into the economy.

I predict a possible boom coming not even close to a recession. 

[Presnock]

On 8/6/2024 at 7:35 AM, Social Media said:

 

Donald Trump has consistently argued that the economy under Joe Biden has been disastrous, and until recently, the data did not support his claim. The United States has been the fastest-growing G7 nation since the Covid pandemic, with historically low unemployment and less severe inflation compared to Europe after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, recent developments provide Trump with some evidence to back his argument.

 

The latest US jobs figures indicate a significant cooling of the labor market. In July, payroll growth slowed to 114,000, about half the average of 215,000 from the previous 12 months and well below economists' expectations. The unemployment rate also rose from 4.1% to 4.3%, causing alarm. Financial markets, which had bet heavily on the US economy's resilience to higher interest rates, are now worried about a potential hard landing. Concerns about the US economy cooling rapidly contributed to a 12% drop in Japan's Nikkei index.

 

The Federal Reserve's Sahm rule, a measure named after economist Claudia Sahm, gauges whether the US economy is in recession. According to this rule, if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points or more above its low over the previous 12 months, the economy is in the early months of recession.

 

The recent jobless report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the Sahm rule is close to being triggered. Unless the unemployment rate falls, the rule will be met next month. Historically, the Sahm rule has been a reliable predictor of impending US recessions, prompting some to argue that the Federal Reserve has delayed cutting interest rates for too long. Speculation has arisen that the Fed might announce an emergency rate cut before its next scheduled meeting.

 

However, some economists caution against relying too heavily on the Sahm rule. Dhaval Joshi, an analyst at BCA Research, notes an unprecedented decoupling between robust economic growth and rising unemployment. Unlike in the past 60 years, when an increase in the unemployment rate by 0.5% in a year signaled a recession, current GDP growth remains strong. Joshi attributes the rising unemployment not to widespread layoffs but to an increase in labor supply outpacing labor demand. He suggests that the stock market, particularly tech stocks exposed to the artificial intelligence boom, is more vulnerable to a recession than the real economy.

 

In addition to rising unemployment, other economic indicators pose challenges for Kamala Harris as she counters Trump's critiques of the administration's economic performance. For example, the performance of UPS, often seen as a barometer of the US economy, fell short of analysts' estimates last month, leading the company to lower its growth forecasts for 2024.

 

With the presidential election only three months away, the US economy is not on the brink of an immediate recession. However, signs of households cutting back on spending spell trouble for Harris, the Democratic presidential hopeful. The cooling labor market and other economic indicators provide Trump with ammunition to argue that Biden's economic policies have failed, potentially swaying voters as the election approaches.

 

Credit: The Guardian  2024-08-06

 

 

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Well, the US stock market jumped back up near record levels well above 40000, plus news reports from the US report spending by US consumers has jumped up recently and now instead of a recession, the "experts" are saying that with the fed now saying maybe 2 corrections this year, 

[Yellowtail]

10-20 million new "consumers" imported and provided with food, housing and medical care via the greedy taxpayers goes a long way to juice the economy. 

 

[Yellowtail]

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

Pretty stupid there will be no recession.  Millions of homeowners with big equity will refinance when rates go down.

Putting that cash out from their homes back into the economy.

I predict a possible boom coming not even close to a recession. 

That's a genuinely interesting idea.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

Pretty stupid there will be no recession.  Millions of homeowners with big equity will refinance when rates go down.

Putting that cash out from their homes back into the economy.

I predict a possible boom coming not even close to a recession. 

I know that mortgage rates have already begun to decline based I guess on weaker demand  and the expectation that the Feds will lower the prime rate. But I suspect that people might wait a year or longer after that happens in the expectation that rates will decline further. Still, thanks for alerting me to the unsuspected dimension of rate cuts.

[candide]

2 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Look how the right-wing propaganda is diffusing ridiculous media conspiracy theory. 🤣

 

From CBS article:

"The Center for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Harris' proposal to exempt tip income from federal income taxes and raise the minimum wage would increase deficits by $100 billion to $200 billion over the next decade. "

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-taxes-on-tips-trump-proposal/

Edited August 17 by candide

[Yellowtail]

3 minutes ago, candide said:

Look how the right-wing propaganda is diffusing ridiculous media conspiracy theory. 🤣

 

From CBS article:

"The Center for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Harris' proposal to exempt tip income from federal income taxes and raise the minimum wage would increase deficits by $100 billion to $200 billion over the next decade. "

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-taxes-on-tips-trump-proposal/

The headlines are not for people who read the articles, they're to influence how dummies vote. 

 

I noticed Harris is a border hawk that support fracking and gun rights now too, at least until the election. 

[candide]

(

22 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

The headlines are not for people who read the articles, they're to influence how dummies vote. 

 

I noticed Harris is a border hawk that support fracking and gun rights now too, at least until the election. 

Another lame right-wing trick. The propaganda meme has selected an article from cbs moneywatch specifically related to the budget estimate, not the initial announcement of the measure by Trump! 🤣

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, candide said:

(

Another lame right-wing trick. The propaganda meme has selected an article from cbs moneywatch specifically related to the budget estimate, not the initial announcement of the measure by Trump! 🤣

Got it🤣

 

I noticed Harris is a border hawk that support fracking and gun rights now too, at least until the election, good news that huh? 

[candide]

40 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Got it🤣

 

I noticed Harris is a border hawk that support fracking and gun rights now too, at least until the election, good news that huh? 

This the headline of the original cbs article, on 9 June:

 

Former President Donald Trump on Sunday vowed to end taxation on tips for service workers at a rally off of the Las Vegas strip in Nevada, in a pitch to win over voters in the battleground state that is largely dependent on the hospitality industry

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-nevada-rally-taxes-tips-culinary-union/

 

The cost assessment report was issued on June 17, so there was a specific news article on it.

 

This meme is a good illustration of how how gullible people can be tricked by the right-wing and led to believe ridiculous conspiracy theories. 😅

 

 

Edited August 17 by candide

[Yellowtail]

13 minutes ago, candide said:

This the headline ofvthe original cbs article, on 9 June:

 

Former President Donald Trump on Sunday vowed to end taxation on tips for service workers at a rally off of the Las Vegas strip in Nevada, in a pitch to win over voters in the battleground state that is largely dependent on the hospitality industry

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-nevada-rally-taxes-tips-culinary-union/

 

The cost assessment report was issued on June 17, so there was a specific news article on it.

 

This meme is a good illustration of how how gullible people can be tricked and led to believe ridiculous conspiracy theories. 😅

 

 

 

15 minutes ago, candide said:

This the headline ofvthe original cbs article, on 9 June:

 

Former President Donald Trump on Sunday vowed to end taxation on tips for service workers at a rally off of the Las Vegas strip in Nevada, in a pitch to win over voters in the battleground state that is largely dependent on the hospitality industry

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-nevada-rally-taxes-tips-culinary-union/

 

The cost assessment report was issued on June 17, so there was a specific news article on it.

 

This meme is a good illustration of how how gullible people can be tricked and led to believe ridiculous conspiracy theories. 😅

 

 

Indeed 🤣

 

Again, I noticed Harris is a border hawk that support fracking and gun rights now too, at least until the election, still nothing to say about that? 

[placeholder]

On 8/17/2024 at 7:17 AM, JustMyOpinion said:

Subsidies just transfer the cost from individuals who cannot afford their premiums to the taxpayer... it does NOT lower the premium.  

ForbesBusinessPolicy

11 Years Of ACA/ObamaCare, 11 Years Of Rising Costs

Josh Archambault

Contributor

The Apothecary

Contributor Group

Follow

Mar 23, 2021,12:30pm EDT

This article is more than 3 years old.

Eleven years of ObamaCare have done little to combat the ever-increasing cost of health care insurance for the American middle class. D.C.’s so-called solution is the “American Rescue Plan” that transfers even more money out of taxpayers’ wallets and to insurance companies.

MIAMI, FLORIDA - JANUARY 28: Pedestrians walk past the Leading Insurance Agency, which offers plans ... [+]

Getty Images

The difficult-to-fathom $1.9 trillion law allocates tens of billions to make ObamaCare insurance subsidies even more substantial. At face value that may sound like a good way to help consumers, but it just proves once again that Congress views subsidies as a hammer for which high health care costs look like a nail. Unfortunately, it will be the taxpayers paying for this, while insurance companies and hospitals keep charging higher and higher prices.

Washington has just written a blank check to the biggest players in health care for at least two years and these subsidies just cover up problems that will only get worse. The twisted logic of the bill even grants more assistance to higher-income enrollees, compared to those with lower incomes.

To make matters worse, the subsidy expansion will result in millions of workers losing their employer-based insurance. It will crowd out private spending on health coverage as some employers drop coverage and switch employees off employer-based coverage to taxpayer-subsidized coverage.

It is an inefficient way to help a very small group of people while ignoring the many issues that are making health care unaffordable for so many Americans—but it makes for an efficient headline.

Looking ahead, the two-year subsidy expansion will give hospitals and insurance companies enough time to pressure Congress into spending billions more to line their pockets in perpetuity. This time and money would be better spent on expanding price transparency efforts. Eleven years with ObamaCare, and health care is still one of the only industries that surprises its customers with the final bill.

Great article, three years old and full of generalization but no real data. 

Anyway, maybe the ACA should look to the excellent job that employer sponsored health care plans are doing in keeping costs down.

An October 2023 survey from the Commonwealth Fund indicated that 38% of US adults in the past year delayed or skipped healthcare or a prescription drug because they couldn’t afford it, including 54% of those with employer-sponsored coverage.

"I think that even for working people, but particularly for low-wage workers, many of the cost-sharing provisions required by employer-sponsored health plans raise real affordability issues [for] what their ability is to actually use the plan," Matthew Rae, associate director of the healthcare marketplace project at KFF, told Yahoo Finance.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/employer-sponsored-healthcare-costs-keep-rising-and-its-sort-of-untenable-143036064.html

[Yellowtail]

On 8/19/2024 at 11:54 PM, placeholder said:

Great article, three years old and full of generalization but no real data. 

Anyway, maybe the ACA should look to the excellent job that employer sponsored health care plans are doing in keeping costs down.

An October 2023 survey from the Commonwealth Fund indicated that 38% of US adults in the past year delayed or skipped healthcare or a prescription drug because they couldn’t afford it, including 54% of those with employer-sponsored coverage.

"I think that even for working people, but particularly for low-wage workers, many of the cost-sharing provisions required by employer-sponsored health plans raise real affordability issues [for] what their ability is to actually use the plan," Matthew Rae, associate director of the healthcare marketplace project at KFF, told Yahoo Finance.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/employer-sponsored-healthcare-costs-keep-rising-and-its-sort-of-untenable-143036064.html

So all the promises about the ACA driving down medical costs were lies. I'm shocked. 

 

It's hard to believe that compelling insurance companies to accept new subscribers with preexisting conditions and mandated low deductibles would drive costs up. 

 

Like everything else the left touches, ruin it, and then come in to save it.