Academic Says Dissolution of Pheu Thai Party 'Unlikely'

[webfact]

FILE - Thailand's former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, left, with, his daughter Paetongtarn, arrives at Don Muang airport in Bangkok, Thailand, Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2023.(AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit, File)

 

The dissolution of Pheu Thai, Thailand's major ruling party, by the Constitutional Court appears improbable, according to academic Attachak Satayanuruk from Chiang Mai University. Pheu Thai, influentially guided by Thaksin Shinawatra, has faced allegations of unlawful dominion by Thaksin, who allegedly orchestrated the appointment of his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as party leader and potential prime minister.

 

Attachak believes that despite the accusations, the Constitutional Court is likely to avoid dissolving Pheu Thai given the underlying political dynamics. He suggests that the unnamed powers-that-be support the court’s decisions on politically charged cases, ensuring Thaksin's party remains intact to maintain their vested interests.

 

These political tensions have emerged amid a few lawsuits filed seeking Pheu Thai’s dissolution. These complaints accuse the party and its leaders, including Paetongtarn, of breaching political ethics by acting under Thaksin’s unlawful influence. It’s notable that Thaksin, previously convicted of power abuse and misconduct, cannot be a registered party member yet still allegedly wields significant influence.

Despite the gravity of these accusations, Attachak posits that the Constitutional Court will likely not impose extreme sanctions, allowing Pheu Thai to continue its role in the political landscape. He references previous contentious decisions like the dissolution of reformist parties Future Forward and Move Forward, and the surprising coalition formation of Pheu Thai with its former adversaries, including Palang Pracharath and Ruam Thai Sang Chart.

 

Furthermore, Attachak mentions the historic impeachment of ex-Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, coupling this with his conviction that Thaksin will strive to maintain harmonious relationships with all coalition partners such as Bhumjaithai, led by Newin Chidchob, and Ruam Thai Sang Chart, under Prayut Chan-o-cha.

 

The academic predicts Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai-led administration will encounter significant challenges in governance, struggling to balance national interests against internal political maneuvers. He surmises that increasing pressure might compel Paetongtarn to dissolve the House of Representatives and call an election within the next 18 months.

 

-- 2024-09-04

 

 

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[hotchilli]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Attachak believes that despite the accusations, the Constitutional Court is likely to avoid dissolving Pheu Thai given the underlying political dynamics. He suggests that the unnamed powers-that-be support the court’s decisions on politically charged cases, ensuring Thaksin's party remains intact to maintain their vested interests.

CC is owned by the elites and Thaksin

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

CC is owned by the elites and Thaksin

Thaksin has nothing to do with the CC and EC. These are legal arms of the military royalist elites  and are there to protect their wealth, power and the status quo.

[dinsdale]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

He suggests that the unnamed powers-that-be support the court’s decisions on politically charged cases, ensuring Thaksin's party remains intact to maintain their vested interests.

An interesting article. The unnamed powers are of course the military and the elite royalist establishment and their leader. As for the government remaining intact to maintain their vested interests this is a good point but fails to mention the consequences if the PTP no longer maintains the vested interests of the military royalist elite establishment.

[mdr224]

If these predictions were be able to be bet on, i would bet against whatever thai experts scholars and academics have to say and id be right 100% of the time

[jippytum]

 That's a shame.

Dissolution of Thaskin and his party would be a more honourable action than the dissolution of the move forward party. The party the majority of Thai people voted for and  elected. 

[dinsdale]

Just now, jippytum said:

 That's a shame.

Dissolution of Thaskin and his party would be a more honourable action than the dissolution of the move forward party. The party the majority of Thai people voted for and  elected. 

Thaksin has bent over and taken it up the rs from the military royalist elites so he can throw his power around. Thing is the ultimate power is not his. Although he is the puppeteer for the PTP the real power lies with the master puppeteer and his military elite establishment minions.

[Hunz Kittisak]

29 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Thaksin has bent over and taken it up the rs from the military royalist elites so he can throw his power around. Thing is the ultimate power is not his. Although he is the puppeteer for the PTP the real power lies with the master puppeteer and his military elite establishment minions.

Thaksin is the blue eye boy now and if he play his cards right he will assume the role of Prem previously. At the top of the echelon reporting to only ONE

[Aussie999]

59 minutes ago, jippytum said:

 That's a shame.

Dissolution of Thaskin and his party would be a more honourable action than the dissolution of the move forward party. The party the majority of Thai people voted for and  elected. 

should not use "honorable" when discussing the CC.

[AhFarangJa]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

He surmises that increasing pressure might compel Paetongtarn to dissolve the House of Representatives and call an election within the next 18 months.

An Election? What a waste of time that will be, look what happened to the party that the Thai people voted for last time. 

[Hunz Kittisak]

2 hours ago, AhFarangJa said:

An Election? What a waste of time that will be, look what happened to the party that the Thai people voted for last time. 

Slight correction 38% of thai voters voted for.

38% is the best by any single party but it’s not a majority. 151 seats out of 500 is NOT a majority. 
Google the Thai electoral system to understand what is considered election winner. Thaksin winning by a landslide majority….now that’s a winner 

[AhFarangJa]

2 hours ago, Hunz Kittisak said:

Slight correction 38% of thai voters voted for.

38% is the best by any single party but it’s not a majority. 151 seats out of 500 is NOT a majority. 
Google the Thai electoral system to understand what is considered election winner. Thaksin winning by a landslide majority….now that’s a winner 

Sorry, but why is it then that everywhere the Move Forward party was called the winner.........This is from Wikipedia.......

Pita's Move Forward initially formed a coalition with the other pro-democracy, anti-military parties, which had a majority in the lower house but was unable to form a government after being functionally blocked by allies of the monarchy and military in the Senate. Pheu Thai then assumed the lead, dissolving its alliance with Move Forward and allying instead with conservative, pro-military parties. It then nominated real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin as prime minister. He was elected by Parliament on 22 August.^[6]

On August 7, 2024, Thailand's Constitutional Court banned the victors of the election, the Move Forward Party and all of its leaders from politics for its proposal to reform the lèse-majesté law, arguing it posed a threat to the constitutional order.^[7]