With less than two months remaining before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a dead heat, according to a new national survey. The poll, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, shows Trump holding a slight edge with 48 percent of likely voters' support, while Harris closely trails at 47 percent. This slim margin falls within the poll’s margin of error, indicating a highly competitive race.

 

The results mirror those of a July survey from the same sources, which was conducted shortly after President Joe Biden announced his decision to step down from his reelection bid. Despite the time that has passed since Biden's exit, the race remains virtually unchanged, signaling that the contest between Harris and Trump is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent memory.

 

The timing of the poll is particularly significant, as it comes just days before the highly anticipated ABC News debate between Harris and Trump, the only scheduled debate between the two candidates thus far. For Harris, the debate could prove to be a crucial moment in her campaign. According to the poll, 28 percent of likely voters expressed a desire to learn more about Harris, compared to only 9 percent who felt the same way about Trump. This suggests that while Trump is a well-known figure with a solidified base, Harris still has an opportunity to sway undecided voters and define her candidacy in the final stretch of the campaign.

 

However, the poll also highlights some challenges Harris may face. Nearly half of the likely voters surveyed, 47 percent, perceive Harris as too liberal, which could be a stumbling block in winning over moderate and independent voters. On the other hand, 32 percent of likely voters view Trump as too conservative, though this perception does not seem to have significantly dented his support base.

 

Interestingly, this survey is one of the few national polls of high quality that did not show Harris receiving a boost in support following her swift nomination and the subsequent events at the party’s nominating convention in Chicago last month. The New York Times notes that this is the first time in about a month that Trump has shown at least a nominal lead in a major nonpartisan national survey.

 

The New York Times’ polling averages still show Harris with a slight edge over Trump, 49 percent to 47 percent. However, the importance of The New York Times’ survey in shaping public perception and influencing campaign strategies cannot be overstated, as it has historically played a significant role in American politics, often driving both fundraising efforts and media coverage.

 

The poll surveyed 1,695 registered voters between September 3 and 6, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points among likely voters. As Election Day draws closer, the nation’s attention is likely to intensify on this closely contested race, with every development potentially tipping the scales.

 

Credit: Politico 2024-09-09

 

 

 

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The polls after the debate will be much more important.

It’s going to be a nail brighter no doubt about it 

5 minutes ago, Tug said:

It’s going to be a nail brighter no doubt about it 

 

star light..... star bright ......which star i see tonight. 

33 minutes ago, stoner said:

 

star light..... star bright ......which star i see tonight. 

Oh I don’t know stoner,yes it’s going to be close but you need to keep in mind trump disenfranchised 50% of our population added 23% to our debt for nothing is a rapist convicted felon and fraud and sucks up to the enemies of democracy.not all of America believes his lies….its the electoral college that worry’s me though thats were the danger lies.

3 minutes ago, Tug said:

Oh I don’t know stoner,yes it’s going to be close but you need to keep in mind trump disenfranchised 50% of our population added 23% to our debt for nothing is a rapist convicted felon and fraud and sucks up to the enemies of democracy.not all of America believes his lies….its the electoral college that worry’s me though thats were the danger lies.

 

the EC is all that matters right.  my reply was meant to be light hearted you know. 

Bad news for Harris. This poll skewed left in 2020 by 4.5 points.

Patriotism V Communism

12 minutes ago, proton said:

Patriotism V Communism

I would call Trump a fascist, not a communist.

35 minutes ago, proton said:

Patriotism V Communism

If you are referring to trump as a patriot you are mistaken. patriots don’t disparage our war dead disrespect POWs they aren’t derelict in their oath to the constitution and suck up to the enemy hope that helps but I doubt it.

But but, lichtmans prediction!

 

/s

Im still waiting for the Harvard /harris September poll  which comes out the last week of the month,they are more detailed.

It will reflect the debate from this Tuesday.

 

 

Neck to neck polls is actually good for the Harris/Waltz ticket as it will not permit complacency in the Dems voters mind and incentivize voters to turn out. It will forced Harris/Waltz to worked even harder. They have a large war chest that will allow anormous sums to be pumped into political advertising and even have extra for down-ballot races. They also have more staffs and volunteers on the ground giving them the advantage in the highly important ground battles. Hard lessons learned from Hillary's downfall - complacency.

@illisdean

Thanks for that post on nate Silver.

It’s in  the hands of the Swing voter.

Harris could win the popular vote by millions but if she can’t cut 270 , she will be just another Hillary. Imop.

Maybe we’ll see the girl in glasses with the snow beanie cap come out and scream to the sky again. Imop

 

“Silver's forecast model gives Trump a 60.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris' 39.7 percent, with the former president taking 277 electoral votes to the vice president's 

 

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polling-nate-silver-1949866

24 minutes ago, riclag said:

Im still waiting for the Harvard /harris September poll  which comes out the last week of the month,they are more detailed.

It will reflect the debate from this Tuesday.

 

 

Yes the polls post debate will tell us. I will do a 5 poll average.

8 hours ago, gargamon said:

The polls after the debate will be much more important.

The one on November 5th will be absolutely crucial. Frankly, everything else tells whoever commissions it what they want to hear.

5 hours ago, illisdean said:

Kamala's sugar high honeymoon is over, as in crashing, her campaign will be on life support after Tue debate. LOL. Hopeless and feckless, and oh so fake & phony. Maybe she can send some more violent Venezuelan illegal aliens criminal gangs to mange property rentals and management in Colorado. Wake up America, I am pretty sure Trump warned you about illegal aliens and their risk to national security. How's your sanctuary city working out for you in Aurora CO. 

 

 

Mea.while, even the right leaning RCP aggregator is showing an increase of the Dems' score for the Electoral College. 😀 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

If the national popular vote is neck and neck. Trump wins with the electoral college.

1 hour ago, morrobay said:

If the national popular vote is neck and neck. Trump wins with the electoral college.

Interesting

8 hours ago, maesariang said:

Interesting. 64% is rather high. If Harris can't win a left leaning poll like NY Times she is in trouble. She should be winning these polls by 5 points.

As I've been saying. If she was the anointed one from above, she should be miles and miles ahead, and Trump should be eating dust, but he's not. If she can't do better during the honey moon phase, she is, IMO, severely struggling to tread water. Once the honeymoon is over, if she does not win the debate convincingly, it's not good for her at all. Even a draw in the debate is not going to suffice.

 

This now, IMO, is Trump's to lose, if he behaves himself in the debate. All he has to do is get a draw to win the prize.

Edited September 9, 20241 yr by thaibeachlovers

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

As I've been saying. If she was the anointed one from above, she should be miles and miles ahead, and Trump should be eating dust, but he's not. If she can't do better during the honey moon phase, she is, IMO, severely struggling to tread water. Once the honeymoon is over, if she does not win the debate convincingly, it's not good for her at all. Even a draw in the debate is not going to suffice.

 

This now, IMO, is Trump's to lose, if he behaves himself in the debate. All he has to do is get a draw to win the prize.

He won the coin toss so has the last 2 minutes to highlight the Biden and Harris failings. That is key.

According to DNC "insiders" voters reaction to the Harris/Walz interview was poor. The problem for the DNC is that Kamala is fundamentally a sanctimonious and dislikeable person. 

 

They have a new Bidenesque problem. She does well enough in front of a teleprompter, useless in the moment. So like Biden, they are trying the Basement campaign strategy. It worked for him. 

 

The DNC are genuinely worried about tomorrow's debate. They really could do without a "you'd be in jail" moment, and gawd forbid a Bidel-level mumblethon. And she's known for that. Something to do with "unburdened" or something like that. 

 

Two things have Dems worried. The closed mike system is designed to shut Trump up. It doesn't help Kamala's oft used "I'm talking" trope. 

 

But here's the real worry - if Kamala goes after Trump's character she's opening the door to crushing rebuttal. 

 

If I were her I would stick to policy alone and not mention Trump's character. 

 

Trump is a brutal debater. Kamala has given him plenty to attack. If she escapes this with a draw she'll likely win the election. It's hers to lose. 

 

 

17 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

As I've been saying. If she was the anointed one from above, she should be miles and miles ahead, and Trump should be eating dust, but he's not. If she can't do better during the honey moon phase, she is, IMO, severely struggling to tread water. Once the honeymoon is over, if she does not win the debate convincingly, it's not good for her at all. Even a draw in the debate is not going to suffice.

 

This now, IMO, is Trump's to lose, if he behaves himself in the debate. All he has to do is get a draw to win the prize.

 

And I think if it's a draw she wins because the Trump hatred factor is powerful. 10 million women more than men voted in the last election and Trump is polling 17% lower than Harris with women. 

 

Trump needs that gap to narrow, and he needs to move the needle with ADOS. 

9 minutes ago, theblether said:

According to DNC "insiders" voters reaction to the Harris/Walz interview was poor. The problem for the DNC is that Kamala is fundamentally a sanctimonious and dislikeable person. 

 

They have a new Bidenesque problem. She does well enough in front of a teleprompter, useless in the moment. So like Biden, they are trying the Basement campaign strategy. It worked for him. 

 

The DNC are genuinely worried about tomorrow's debate. They really could do without a "you'd be in jail" moment, and gawd forbid a Bidel-level mumblethon. And she's known for that. Something to do with "unburdened" or something like that. 

 

Two things have Dems worried. The closed mike system is designed to shut Trump up. It doesn't help Kamala's oft used "I'm talking" trope. 

 

But here's the real worry - if Kamala goes after Trump's character she's opening the door to crushing rebuttal. 

 

If I were her I would stick to policy alone and not mention Trump's character. 

 

Trump is a brutal debater. Kamala has given him plenty to attack. If she escapes this with a draw she'll likely win the election. It's hers to lose. 

 

 

Who decides who wins? Trump smashed Hillary and msm claimed she won.

9 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

And I think if it's a draw she wins because the Trump hatred factor is powerful. 10 million women more than men voted in the last election and Trump is polling 17% lower than Harris with women. 

 

Trump needs that gap to narrow, and he needs to move the needle with ADOS. 

Being a woman is not enough. She needs to outline policies or its over.

5 hours ago, maesariang said:

Who decides who wins? Trump smashed Hillary and msm claimed she won

 

It's one of the few occasions that the media are powerless. In fact, they are a danger to themselves as the public can see through their partisan lies. 

11 hours ago, maesariang said:

Being a woman is not enough. She needs to outline policies or its over.

Seems to be running on "vote for me because I'm a black woman" more than any "there".

11 hours ago, theblether said:

 

And I think if it's a draw she wins because the Trump hatred factor is powerful. 10 million women more than men voted in the last election and Trump is polling 17% lower than Harris with women. 

 

Trump needs that gap to narrow, and he needs to move the needle with ADOS. 

HRC won the popular vote by millions and lost.  Thank you founding fathers for saving us from HRC and hopefully Harris.

She can run but she can't hide. What can she say about the wrecked economy, the destroyed border, and the foreign policy mess her administration is responsible for. She had four years to do something worth while. But nada. So I doubt the voters are going to buy any thing she says. 

 

Erm...there seems to be an update that nobody here is talking about:

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/09/08/kamala-harris-suffers-poll-blow-eve-critical-trump-debate/