Reform UK Surpasses Conservative Party Membership in Landmark Shift

[RayC]

12 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

 

Public Sector Services in the UK are a disaster area. I wont go into the reasons now.

 

Why not? How can it be discussed and fixed if we don't know what the problems are?

 

12 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

 

The Public Sector as a whole is a net drain on Finances. They are organs of the State that require funding through taxation.

 

Agreed. True by definition.

 

12 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

Public Sector productivity in reality means nothing, very few parts of it actually contribute to the economy.

 

Public services contribute to the welfare of society and also act as enablers for the private sector. Without them society would not function.

 

12 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

But every component part of it, has layers of management that need trimmed, various others that are non jobs that are not required. This is where productivity is increased and costs reduced.

 

Every component of every public service provider has inefficiencies and layers of management which are unnecessary? A sweeping statement. It does make one wonder why successive governments over the last 50 years have been unable to significantly improve public sector productivity when improvements should be so easy to identify.

 

12 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

 

I'll just leave you this. Its that honest Mr Starmer

 

 

Oops

 

Let's not pretend Labour have a monopoly on dishonest politicians. Remember a certain Mr. Johnson?

 

12 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

Can you name somewhere that Labour is investing that will stimulate growth ?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/09/what-is-the-national-wealth-fund-and-what-will-it-invest-in

 

(in particular, the section entitled 'What will the NWF invest in?')

 

12 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

 

We don't know how it would have turned out. For the same reason I keep telling you that the carnage from the budget has not started yet, give it 6 months to work through the system

 

Truss never got 6 months for it to start working through the system.

 

Panic set in when the cost of 10 year guilts hit 4.5%

 

They are above that now

 

 

Oops

 

 

 

On the one hand, you state with apparent absolute certainty that the effects of  Labour's budget will result in "carnage" within six months, whilst on the other you excuse Trusses' disastrous mini-budget by stating that, "we don't know how it would have turned out" if she'd been given six-month's grace. The fact is that the UK economy couldn't have afforded six months more of Liz Truss: The country would have been bankrupt long before then; the financial markets would have seen to that.

 

The fact that the coupon on UK 10-year gilts is now 4.64% - as opposed to 4.5% which was the rate two years ago - is completely irrelevant. The pertinent facts are that the UK bond market was in turmoil as a direct result of Trusses' mini-budget - panic didn't set in when 10-year gilt yields hit 4.5%, the yields hit 4.5% because panic had set in long before that milestone was hit. The difference in the market reaction to Labour's budget proposals is clear: The market is stable and has taken it in its' stride.

 

A common theme throughout your posts is your belief in the need to cut taxes to stimulate growth. Can I suggest that you read the first section of the following link. The article was written in response to Trusses' budget but, if anything, it understates the reasons why cutting taxes now would be economically irresponsible, given that we have had two economically unjustified cuts to employee NI contributions since then.

 

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response

 

(I'll pre-empt any possible objections based on political bias by pointing out that the IFS is considered to be neoliberal in its' outlook).

[The Cyclist]

6 minutes ago, RayC said:

Why not? How can it be discussed and fixed if we don't know what the problems are?

 

Because neither, you or I, are not in a position to change anything.

 

The 2 main Parties, created the problems and are not in a position to fix it. Hence the reason for this thread, which is the rise of Reform.

 

As much I would like to drown him. Dominic Cummings has a couple of very good videos on you tube, that are worth a watch.

 

10 minutes ago, RayC said:

Every component of every public service provider has inefficiencies and layers of management which are unnecessary? A sweeping statement. It does make one wonder why successive governments over the last 50 years have been unable to significantly improve public sector productivity when improvements should be so easy to identify.

 

See above.

 

11 minutes ago, RayC said:

in particular, the section entitled 'What will the NWF invest in?')

 

Seriously ? A £7 billion wealth fund to invest in major infrastructure projects. Having told you yesterday that the estimated cost of fixing pot-holes is £16 billion.

 

Do you want to tell me what major infrastucture projects £7 Billion will be undertaking ?
 

15 minutes ago, RayC said:

The fact that the coupon on UK 10-year gilts is now 4.64% - as opposed to 4.5% which was the rate two years ago - is completely irrelevant

 

That difference is roughly £3 Billion a month in extra debt costs. Not an irrelevant sum, by any strtch of the imagination.

 

22 minutes ago, RayC said:

A common theme throughout your posts is your belief in the need to cut taxes to stimulate growth.

 

I'll just point here, they are not my beliefs. They are the beliefs of many respected economists.

 

23 minutes ago, RayC said:

The difference in the market reaction to Labour's budget proposals is clear: The market is stable and has taken it in its' stride.

 

Every economic metric is heading downwards. It is stable only in their downward trajectory

 

GDP growth

 

Ftse 100

 

£ - Baht / $

 

Debt Interest costs rising

 

Unemployment ticking up.

 

And we haven't got to the following yet

 

Rise in minimum wage

 

Increased Employer NI Rates / Decreased NI threshold to £500

 

Increase in business rates.

 

The downward trajectory is stable, because the above do not kick in until April, which is when the carnage begins.

 

Over 400 pubs closed in 2024

 

Quote

 

The sector also fears a hangover from October’s budget in 2025. Altus Group’s Alex Probyn says:

“Many publicans that I speak to are extremely worried that this could be their last Christmas given the combination of hiking the amount employers will have to pay in National Insurance, increases to the minimum wage and the business rates discount being slashed from 75% to 40% in 2025.

 

 

It wont just be pubs that will closing after April 2025.
 

 

[RayC]

3 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

Because neither, you or I, are not in a position to change anything.

 

The 2 main Parties, created the problems and are not in a position to fix it. Hence the reason for this thread, which is the rise of Reform.

 

I think that it is the height of wishful thinking to believe that Reform have any more idea of how to improve productivity in the public sectors than either the Tories or Labour.

 

3 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

As much I would like to drown him. Dominic Cummings has a couple of very good videos on you tube, that are worth a watch.

 

Can you be more specific please. I just had a cursory glance at YouTube and there are no end of Cummings' videos.

 

3 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

Seriously ? A £7 billion wealth fund to invest in major infrastructure projects. Having told you yesterday that the estimated cost of fixing pot-holes is £16 billion.

 

You asked for specific examples of projects and they were contained in the link which I provided.

 

The total amount allocated for capital expenditure in the budget is £134bn. 

 

3 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

Do you want to tell me what major infrastucture projects £7 Billion will be undertaking ?
 

 

See the link in the previous post. I imagine that some of the money has been set aside for future investment e.g. for capital projects arising from the review of the NHS.

 

3 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

That difference is roughly £3 Billion a month in extra debt costs. Not an irrelevant sum, by any strtch of the imagination.

 

It's not an insignificant sum but it only becomes a problem if repayments cannot be met which is why the market was concerned about Trusses' budget.

 

Doubts about the ability of the current UK government to meet its' financial obligations do not currently exist.

 

3 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

I'll just point here, they are not my beliefs. They are the beliefs of many respected economists.

 

Indeed and I have never disputed the fact that tax cuts can generate growth. My point all along has been about timing and imo, for reasons outlined here and elsewhere previously, now is not the time for tax cuts.

 

3 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

Every economic metric is heading downwards. It is stable only in their downward trajectory

 

GDP growth

 

Ftse 100

 

£ - Baht / $

 

Debt Interest costs rising

 

Unemployment ticking up.

 

And we haven't got to the following yet

 

Rise in minimum wage

 

Increased Employer NI Rates / Decreased NI threshold to £500

 

Increase in business rates.

 

The downward trajectory is stable, because the above do not kick in until April, which is when the carnage begins.

 

Over 400 pubs closed in 2024

 

 

It wont just be pubs that will closing after April 2025.
 

 

The indicators aren't great and the government's management and PR since it took office leave a lot to be desired, no denying that.

 

The  assumptions underlying the budget proposals are that spending will level out over the course of this parliament and growth will occur as a result of the front-loaded capital expenditure. Whether that actually happens remains to be seen.

 

 

3 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

 

[The Cyclist]

4 minutes ago, RayC said:

See the link in the previous post. I imagine that some of the money has been set aside for future investment e.g. for capital projects arising from the review of the NHS.

 

Here is the Government link

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6710cf42080bdf716392f558/NWF_IIS_Publication.pdf

 

The £22 Billion has already gone to Milliband for a dead donkey called net zero.

 

Here is my prediction. It will be a millstone around the taxpayers neck for decades.

 

 

13 minutes ago, RayC said:

Indeed and I have never disputed the fact that tax cuts can generate growth. My point all along has been about timing and imo, for reasons outlined here and elsewhere previously, now is not the time for tax cuts.

 

It was not the time for

 

1. Raising business rates

 

2. The minumum wage.

 

3. Raising employer NI Contributions / lowering the NI threshold by almost 50% 

 

17 minutes ago, RayC said:

The  assumptions underlying the budget proposals are that spending will level out over the course of this parliament and growth will occur as a result of the front-loaded capital expenditure.

 

Revisit this next Christmas. Paying particular attention to

 

1 Unemploymentbrates.

 

2 Inflation rates.

 

3 Government borrowing costs.

 

 

[RayC]

10 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

Here is the Government link

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6710cf42080bdf716392f558/NWF_IIS_Publication.pdf

 

The £22 Billion has already gone to Milliband for a dead donkey called net zero.

 

Which leaves £112bn for other capital projects.

 

10 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

Here is my prediction. It will be a millstone around the taxpayers neck for decades.

 

Let's see.

 

10 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

 

It was not the time for

 

1. Raising business rates

 

2. The minumum wage.

 

3. Raising employer NI Contributions / lowering the NI threshold by almost 50% 

 

1. Possibly not

2. Disagree.

3a. Agree

3b. Unsure

 

10 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

Revisit this next Christmas. Paying particular attention to

 

1 Unemploymentbrates.

 

2 Inflation rates.

 

3 Government borrowing costs.

 

 

 

Fine. Good idea.