American Stock Market CRASH!!! Housing Market CRASH!!! When?

[Quentin Zen]

Plan is to move back to America during the next housing market crash, buy a place cash money, and then maybe rent it out in five years and come back.  

 

Or not.

 

Next year I could buy, but inventories are spiking, the talking heads are blah, blah, blah, and a 400k house should be priced at 200k.  Yes, I am the market.  I'm thinking the market will crash in 2027.  I've learned these things take time, usually a year longer than you think.  Mid-2026 might be a guess, but my gut says it's early.   No way there's another move up before down.  Impossible!!! Stock market will likely make new highs, that's normal, but no way houses in Denver, Austin, California, Florida hit new highs before down 20%.   Impossible!!! lol.  

 

Might be easier to rent in Thailand forever, but isn't it fun paying property tax, never HOA, and fixing everything yourself?  I digress.

 

In a few months I'll be out of the stock market forever, so I'm not too worried what happens there.  

 

Since everyone here will be wrong, I need to know what answer will NOT be correct.  Hahahahhahahaha.  So, yes, I'm probably wrong as well.  

 

Talk to me, gurus.  

 

Tell me the way

[Harrisfan]

2029

[Peter Crow]

10 minutes ago, Quentin Zen said:

400k house should be priced at 200k. 

400k sound very cheap, where could one get a house for that price, maybe some ruin in Romania. 

 

[Harrisfan]

7 year cycles since 1987 plus 100 years since 1929. Or 21 year cycles - 1987, 2008, 2029.

 

So 2029.

[save the frogs]

11 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

7 year cycles since 1987 plus 100 years since 1929. Or 21 year cycles - 1987, 2008, 2029.

 

So 2029.

 

2030 is the WEF "Great Reset" ..

 

But anything can happen before then. 

 

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2020/06/now-is-the-time-for-a-great-reset/

[Quentin Zen]

1 hour ago, Peter Crow said:

400k sound very cheap, where could one get a house for that price, maybe some ruin in Romania. 

 

The average housing price in the United States is currently around $503,800. This figure represents the average sales price of homes sold in the U.S. during the first quarter of 2025, according to The Motley Fool. Alternatively, the median price of a home in the US is around $441,738. 

 

I could easily go 500k if I want a loan of like 100k.  which I don't think I do, but I might.

[Airalee]

I’m looking too.
 

Follow the adjustable rate mortgages.  When the 30 year fixed started to rise around 2022, the spread between fixed and ARMs was wide enough to drive people into 2.xx% adjustables with 3, 5 and 7 year resets.  The 3 year ARMs are already resetting and with interest rates being much higher now, it will drive mortgage payments up substantially (up to 70% higher payments by my calculations).
 

From following the past sales, prices have either stagnated or are already crashing depending upon where you are looking.

 

[FlorC]

ASAP.

[newbee2022]

2 hours ago, Quentin Zen said:

Plan is to move back to America during the next housing market crash, buy a place cash money, and then maybe rent it out in five years and come back.  

 

Or not.

 

Next year I could buy, but inventories are spiking, the talking heads are blah, blah, blah, and a 400k house should be priced at 200k.  Yes, I am the market.  I'm thinking the market will crash in 2027.  I've learned these things take time, usually a year longer than you think.  Mid-2026 might be a guess, but my gut says it's early.   No way there's another move up before down.  Impossible!!! Stock market will likely make new highs, that's normal, but no way houses in Denver, Austin, California, Florida hit new highs before down 20%.   Impossible!!! lol.  

 

Might be easier to rent in Thailand forever, but isn't it fun paying property tax, never HOA, and fixing everything yourself?  I digress.

 

In a few months I'll be out of the stock market forever, so I'm not too worried what happens there.  

 

Since everyone here will be wrong, I need to know what answer will NOT be correct.  Hahahahhahahaha.  So, yes, I'm probably wrong as well.  

 

Talk to me, gurus.  

 

Tell me the way

Well, that's quite interesting.

First, you'll have to wait for a higher inflation.

Analysts expect around 5-8 percent within the next 1-2 years.

Then the Fed will rise the interest rate. Analysts say around 9 percent.

Then loans are not paid back.

The stock market will show it.

Some banks involved in financing these loans will get bankrupt.

This is the time to buy cash.

[Quentin Zen]

5 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

7 year cycles since 1987 plus 100 years since 1929. Or 21 year cycles - 1987, 2008, 2029.

 

So 2029.

This theory, often associated with economist Fred Harrison, suggests that property markets experience a predictable pattern of growth, peak, and decline approximately every 18 years. This cycle is broadly divided into three key phases: Recovery, Boom, and Crash.

[Harrisfan]

3 minutes ago, Quentin Zen said:

This theory, often associated with economist Fred Harrison, suggests that property markets experience a predictable pattern of growth, peak, and decline approximately every 18 years. This cycle is broadly divided into three key phases: Recovery, Boom, and Crash.

WD Gann invented it 100 years ago