Thai - Cambodia Conflict Ceasefire's Fragility: Thai and Cambodian Economies at Stake

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A delicate ceasefire between Thai and Cambodian forces has momentarily eased tensions along the border. However, economists are sounding alarms about the long-term financial repercussions if fighting reignites, potentially costing both nations up to 181.7 billion baht over a three-month span and displacing hundreds of thousands of workers.

 

Ceasefire Breaches and Diplomatic Efforts

 

The recent five-day skirmish, from 24th to 28th July, ended with a ceasefire at midnight on 28th July. Despite the agreement, occasional violations persist, with reports of Cambodian forces firing into Thai territory. Thailand has filed official complaints with ASEAN, the United States, and China, who are monitoring the truce as witnesses.

 

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira stated that the initial conflict cost Thailand approximately 10 billion baht. The government continues to evaluate the broader economic impact.

 

Economic Vulnerability and Expert Projections

 

Associate Professor Dr. Aat Pisanwanich, an expert in international economics, has warned of an 80% probability of renewed conflict. Dr. Aat pointed out that while the ceasefire marks a diplomatic victory for Thailand in fostering negotiations, underlying territorial disputes remain.

 

Prolonged tensions could inflict severe economic damage. A one-month continuation of hostilities might result in combined losses of 60.6 billion baht for both economies. This could escalate to 121.1 billion baht over two months and reach 181.7 billion baht if unresolved for three months.

 

Trade and Tourism at Risk

 

The conflict has disrupted critical trade routes, particularly affecting border crossings in Sa Kaeo and Trat provinces. Sorathep Rojpotjanaruch of the Restaurant Business Association forewarned that a three-month conflict could lead to a 40-50 billion baht loss in border exports. Should the crisis stretch beyond a year, Thailand risks permanently losing export infrastructure as Cambodia might turn to suppliers from Laos, Vietnam, or China.

 

Thailand's tourism industry also stands on shaky ground. Adith Chairattananon from the Thai Travel Agents Association (ATTA) speculated on potential visitor shortfalls. If peace is restored within a month, Thailand could still meet its target of 34.5-35 million foreign visitors this year. However, a prolonged three-month disruption might see arrivals fall to 33-34 million, with a six-month crisis potentially affecting next year's peak season.

 

Impacts on Labour and National Sentiment

 

Over 250,000 Cambodian workers in Thailand's manufacturing sectors, such as frozen food and seafood, are threatened with displacement. Most remain in their roles for now, but persistent unrest could lead to workforce shortages.

 

Rising Cambodian nationalism may also affect consumer behaviour, threatening the demand for Thai products in Cambodia. Rungphech Chitanuvat of Informa Markets noted the significance of Thai consumer exports to Cambodia and the potential impact of nationalist sentiment on this trade relationship.

 

A Call for Diplomatic Solutions

 

Voratat Tantimongkolsuk of the Thai-Cambodia Business Council highlighted the urgent need for transparent negotiations on border demarcations. Disputes arise from different map scales used by the two countries, with conflicting interpretations of boundaries.

 

While Cambodia advocates for international arbitration, Thailand prefers bilateral negotiations. The business community eagerly awaits stable conditions and constructive dialogues to resolve these territorial issues, underscoring the economic interdependence between the nations. Comprehensive resolution mechanisms are essential to prevent future disruptions in the significant bilateral trade.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Nation 2025-07-31

 

 

[hotchilli]

Reap what you sow...

[kingstonkid]

Easy way to solve this is to take Thaksin and his family,  put them in prison or a hotel with no phones or computer and not allow to meet anyone

 

Then take Hun Sen and do the same.

 

Take the to biggest causes and get them out of it.

[klauskunkel]

4 minutes ago, kingstonkid said:

take Thaksin and his family,  put them in prison or a hotel with no phones or computer

and no pigeons

 

[jcmj]

Amazing Thailand. Even during the war they are still trying to predict their tourism numbers. What a bunch of Twaps. Worry about your numbers after the disspute/war has ended and not a day before. They should really hold off here and focus on some other “big groups “ causing Thailand’s downfall. They have more than enough ammunition work with here. 

[kingstonkid]

8 minutes ago, klauskunkel said:

and no pigeons

 

😂