Economy BoT May Slash Rates to Counter US Tariff Impact

[snoop1130]

Photo courtesy of Bangkok Post

 

Thailand's central bank may implement multiple interest rate cuts this year to buttress the economy if looming US tariffs render Thai goods less competitive. Experts suggest that without intervention, the Thai export sector could face significant challenges.

 

Kanjana Chockpisansin, leading the research on banking and finance at Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research), revealed that the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to approve at least one more rate cut before the year's end. However, the situation could call for additional reductions.

 

"If the US imposes higher tariffs on our exports compared to those from other regional economies, it could severely impact Thailand’s economic outlook in the second half of the year," Kanjana explained.

 

For Thailand, maintaining competitive US tariffs is crucial. Failure to do so might lead to slashed exports and dwindling private investment, while consumers could tighten their spending. With the government’s fiscal budget already stretched, stimulating growth through increased spending could be challenging, she cautioned.

 

The MPC is set to convene thrice more this year—in August, October, and December—to contemplate rate cuts from the current 1.75%.

 

The Thai baht weakened to 32.68-32.70 against the US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to keep US interest rates steady at 4.25-4.50% for the fifth straight meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the US central bank is cautious about cutting rates as it assesses President Donald Trump's tariff policies and their inflationary impact.

 

"The Fed is unlikely to alter rates in September, with October or December being more probable," added Kanjana.

 

In light of potential economic slowdown due to US tariff implications, Asia Plus Securities anticipates the MPC might reduce rates by 25 basis points as soon as August. The brokerage noted, "Fiscal measures can’t yet fully bolster the economy, and Thailand’s inflation has declined for three consecutive months by 0.25% year-on-year."

 

Given the strengthening US dollar and robust economic data from the US, K-Research forecasts the baht could weaken further to 33.70 against the dollar in the latter half of 2025, according to Kanjana.

 

This economic backdrop demands vigilant monetary policy adjustments. With global economic uncertainties, the Thai economy’s resilience hinges on strategic interest rate decisions and favourable tariff negotiations. Balancing these elements will be critical to ensuring sustained growth in an increasingly competitive international market.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2025-08-01

 

[John Drake]

2 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Given the strengthening US dollar and robust economic data from the US, K-Research forecasts the baht could weaken further to 33.70 against the dollar in the latter half of 2025, according to Kanjana.

 

 

Want to see it back at 35.

[Stocky]

2 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand's central bank may implement multiple interest rate cuts this year

Given they're already down at 1.75% there's not an awful lot of slashing to do!

[ronnie50]

4 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Given the strengthening US dollar and robust economic data from the US, K-Research forecasts the baht could weaken further to 33.70 against the dollar in the latter half of 2025

At 33.70, the Thai Baht would still be overvalued by a considerable amount. With the local economy as weak as it is, I find it hard to believe that the THB isn't trading closer to 37 or 38 to the USD. With so little to offer in the way of trade, tourism and record high household debt - can the THB really be that strong? It makes little if any sense. Regarding tourism, the Viet Nam Dong is a huge winner over Thailand's overvalued currency by comparison (from a tourist's perspective). Japan's yen is still attractive - though not as cheap as it was a year ago.