Transport THAI Airways Shares Soar as Airline Rebounds with Strong Profits

[snoop1130]

Thai Airways' Airbus A320 | Photo via KhaoSod English

 

In a remarkable turnaround, Thai Airways International (THAI) has seen its share price skyrocket by more than 400% since it resumed trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on the 4th of August. This comes on the heels of an outstanding second-quarter financial performance that revealed normalised profits had surpassed market expectations by a notable 465% year-on-year. Such a financial recovery stems from strategic reductions in fuel costs and the diminishing burden of interest expenses under a well-executed business rehabilitation plan.

 

The financial resurgence of Thai Airways is a testament to the airline's effective cost management and strategic restructuring efforts. By focusing on reducing operational expenses and restructuring debt, THAI has managed to regain market confidence. The surge in share prices reflects this renewed investor interest, catapulting the airline back into the spotlight.

 

Parin Kitchatornpitak, an analyst with KGI Securities, highlighted that the airline’s sales mix has experienced a transformative shift. The proportion of network passengers climbed from a mere 6% in 2023 to 15% in 2024, reaching 21% in the first half of 2025. This shift towards more network-centric operations is perceived as beneficial, especially in off-peak travel seasons. Additionally, the airline witnessed a 15% year-on-year increase in available seat kilometres, a metric boosted by better aircraft utilisation and the resumption of popular European routes to cities such as Oslo, Milan, and Brussels, along with more frequent regional Asian routes.

 

Pasakorn Wangvivatchareon of Asia Plus Securities echoed this sentiment by revising THAI’s profit forecast upwards. He projected a growth of 49% this year, potentially reaching 32 billion baht, primarily driven by decreased operating and interest costs. As THAI continues to enhance its operational efficiency, expectations for 2026’s profits have also seen a modest increase.

 

Aiming to reposition itself as a staple for long-term investors seeking reliable yields, Thai Airways, under the leadership of Chief Executive Chai Eamsiri, has outlined ambitious expansion plans. The airline intends to double its current fleet size to 150 aircraft by 2033, seizing opportunities presented by the booming travel industry in Asia.

 

Before its trading resumption, Chai had already mapped out plans to expand THAI's fleet from 78 aircraft in the first quarter of this year to 93 by the end of the next year. This is a significant adjustment from the pre-rehabilitation count of 103 aircraft. The expansion strategies align with the Central Bankruptcy Court's decision, which allowed the airline to exit its court-supervised rehabilitation programme on June 16. This programme, initiated in May 2020, was set in motion as a response to insolvent conditions, with debts amounting to a colossal 400 billion baht.

 

Chai expressed optimism that by the end of 2025 or early 2026, THAI would focus on expanding its route network significantly, particularly in the promising markets of China and India. The delivery of new aircraft such as the Airbus A321neos is expected to begin next year, which will supplement the existing fleet and open up additional travel routes. To bridge any gaps in capacity before these new planes arrive, THAI plans to lease eight to ten wide-body aircraft for a period of six years.

 

Exciting developments are also in store for THAI's route network. The airline plans to increase the frequency of flights to major Chinese destinations like Guangzhou and Beijing and resume services to cities such as Xiamen, Chongqing, and Changsha. New routes to Wuhan and Shenzhen are on the horizon as well. According to Chai, these Chinese routes not only attract Chinese passengers but also serve European and Australian travellers transiting through Bangkok. Load factors on these flights are impressive, averaging 70% during the low season and shooting up to 80% in the high season.

 

Further expansions include new services to Gaya, India, and several domestic routes. However, Chai acknowledges potential challenges, such as delays in flight and route expansions. One of the more pressing issues is acquiring additional aircraft, particularly wide-body models, to support expanded European routes. Leased aircraft will play a critical role until the new purchases are delivered by 2027.

 

While ambitious, these expansion efforts carry inherent risks. Chai admitted that THAI might face a significant seat shortage in the next couple of years. If additional wide-body aircraft are not leased by mid-2026, it could stall new route openings and restrict flight frequency increases.

 

In the face of glowing prospects, certain challenges remain. Boonyakorn from Maybank Securities warned about the implications of potential aircraft delivery delays, especially concerning the B787-9 model, which could dent THAI’s competitive edge due to a smaller fleet size compared to its rivals. Furthermore, the airline’s aircraft utilisation rate, which stood at 13.6 hours daily in the first half of 2025, significantly surpasses the pre-COVID level of 12 hours. Maintaining this rate is crucial as part of the airline's strategy moving forward.

 

External factors pose risks as well. Fluctuations in oil prices, potentially driven by OPEC production cuts or escalations in Middle East conflicts, could complicate THAI’s cost structures. Additionally, global economic conditions that undermine travel demand might also affect the airline's profitability. Although an early recovery in the aviation industry could pressure passenger yields, THAI remains steadfast in its commitment to maintaining disciplined pricing policies.

 

Despite these challenges, Thai Airways' recovery story is promising. Passenger revenue has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, aided by a resumption of scheduled flights, new route expansions, and robust load factors. The disciplined approach to pricing has also played a part.

 

To summarise, Thai Airways’ spectacular return to the stock market paints a picture of an airline poised for growth. By focusing on expanding its route network and fleet while maintaining cost efficiencies, THAI is working diligently to re-establish itself as a dominant player in the fiercely competitive global aviation industry. As the airline maneuvers through its intricate challenges, industry experts remain optimistic about its potential to sustain this upward trajectory and restore its historic stature.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Thaiger 2025-09-08

 

 

[hotchilli]

16 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

In a remarkable turnaround, Thai Airways International (THAI) has seen its share price skyrocket by more than 400% since it resumed trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on the 4th of August.

I'm sure that's benefited a few wise investors.

[ChaiyaTH]

Sounds like time to build up a short position then..

[wordchild]

At the current price TG has a market value similar to Singapore Air , which has 2x the revenue of TG. SIA is  valued at 1.2x its net assets , TG is valued at 5x its net assets (according to Bloomberg).

Thai Air issued c26 billion of new shares to investors,  including to its debt holders , as part of its restructuring.  Consequently its shares outstanding  increased  by around 14x. Currently the debt holders, who took part in the restructuring,  are restricted from selling their shares until Feb next year.

I suspect the share price  of Thai Air will adjust once all the new holders are free to sell.

[IsaanGuy]

Thai airways prices have rocketed and according to TAT tourism is in a slump, yet the share prices have gone up. Sounds like somebodies fiddling the figures.

[Graham8888]

5 hours ago, hotchilli said:

I'm sure that's benefited a few wise investors.

Check the charts its very volatile 

[PETERTHEEATER]

Have all the passengers owed money for cancelled flights now been repaid?