Global Correction

[fletchsmile]

.... Societe Generale SA, France's second-biggest bank, said yesterday it had a 4.9 billion-euro ($7.2 billion) trading loss, the largest in banking history, and accused 31-year-old Jerome Kerviel of fraud after wrong-way bets on stock index futures...

I wonder if he was selling the bounce back in August as well...

Edited January 25, 2008 by fletchsmile

[lannarebirth]

Chart to watch:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX...&a=77311902

[LaoPo]

Chart to watch:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX...&a=77311902

Did you see how China ended today ? It went down -7.19% (Shanghai composite).

Of the 952 companies trading today, 820 went down. Of these 820, more than 500 went down (almost) -10%....

Even very large companies like Aluminium, China Petroleum, and Insurance and steel companies slid -10%. Banks went down 6-9%.

On top of that China is suffering from the most heavy snowstorms since decades causing factories and plants to close due to power shortages and serious delays on airports and railways.

Japan, HK, Taiwan, Korea, India, Singapore went down quite strong as well.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Chart to watch:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX...&a=77311902

Did you see how China ended today ? It went down -7.19% (Shanghai composite).

LaoPo

I think if it gets back to 1,800 , one has to buy it.

[LaoPo]

Chart to watch:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX...&a=77311902

Did you see how China ended today ? It went down -7.19% (Shanghai composite).

LaoPo

I think if it gets back to 1,800 , one has to buy it.

agree...but that was Oct 2006; it's 4,400 now.

Maybe it could go as low as 2000 to 2200 but not much lower than that. That's another 50% down from today; we'll see.

IF it goes down like that the world is already in a serious recession and all stock markets will be down with lots of opportunities.

LaoPo

[sonicdragon]

Chart to watch:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX...&a=77311902

Did you see how China ended today ? It went down -7.19% (Shanghai composite).

LaoPo

I think if it gets back to 1,800 , one has to buy it.

agree...but that was Oct 2006; it's 4,400 now.

Maybe it could go as low as 2000 to 2200 but not much lower than that. That's another 50% down from today; we'll see.

IF it goes down like that the world is already in a serious recession and all stock markets will be down with lots of opportunities.

LaoPo

If it could go to 2000, why can't it go to 1800 ? But I agree with the rest of your post.

[lannarebirth]

Chart to watch:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX...&a=77311902

Did you see how China ended today ? It went down -7.19% (Shanghai composite).

LaoPo

I think if it gets back to 1,800 , one has to buy it.

agree...but that was Oct 2006; it's 4,400 now.

Maybe it could go as low as 2000 to 2200 but not much lower than that. That's another 50% down from today; we'll see.

IF it goes down like that the world is already in a serious recession and all stock markets will be down with lots of opportunities.

LaoPo

Well, you could start building a position there, sure. I've never seen a parabolic breakout in any market that did not retrace 100% eventually(eventually can be a long time sometimes).

[Abrak]

Bingobongo,

I am impressed you are short and are making money. To be honest in my entire life I have never ever met someone who has gone short and made money. Preserving capital in crap markets is usually pretty good. Well done.

Whenever I am bearish I am usually right but I have rarely gone short. And the couple of times I have gone short I have been wrong.

On a related subject - unless you are obsessed with punting finance stocks - the SET is totally about stock picking. Do your research and pick the right stocks and you will always make a decent return, fail and you can make nothing even in and a really strong market. Guessing where the SET is going to be in 6 months is mugs game. The SET is so under invested and undereseached that it is not going to be liquidity driven. I like it a lot.

[disgruntled]

You guys really seem to know something about something as your know all the jargon. I take the negative side on what's happening. I just hear too much bad news and analyists, brokers giving wishwashy answers - they are sure but then they won't commit. I really would like all their statements inthe media to be recorded and verified somewhere so they can be labelled as BS men or not. As I said I'm a little nobody, who doesn't just sees things from the perspective of someone without a lot of experience in this. In fact, I got a D+ in Macro Economics or was it micro economics well, anyways i should have done better. I went to Lotus the other day and wow! prices are up! I found out its cheaper to buy those cooked hotdogs from 7Eleven than it is to buy them at a discount supermarket like lotus! It's crazy. My friend told me that a package of butter that used to be 37 baht is now 47 baht! that's 20% inflation or something like that! 7Eleven said it would raise prices on 500 items about three months back. I just see inflation going nuts here. It may not impact the rich but it sure will make the little people think about what they want to spend their money on.

I was thinking about another golden rule of life for the world we live in: Generally the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. IF you believe this then apply it to your view of investing in companies. The rich big companies tend to get bigger and the little ones linger on. Okay its not perfect by why wouldn't it prove true for companies. When the markets go up it seems that very few S+P companies are moving. Is there any truth to this idea for companies in the markets? Oh, of course some rich companies will screw up and lose their wealth. this would be the same as the son who squanders his daddy's fortune on hookers and whiskey. It happens but its not the standard.

[disgruntled]

One more thing that came to mind is big cities tend to get bigger and the people who migrate to them seeking riches tend to make the people who own the land in those cities richer. Ex. bangkok, New York etc. now apply this idea which seems to be true worldwide to countries that allow massive migration. the countries which allow the most people to come and live and work there should benefit. So the US and other societies which allow people in should see more wealth.

Another point: America needs fat people.

One thing America does produce is food. If everyone in the US decided to eat less a lot of business would be lost. Keeping people fat and keeping them trying new exercise equipment and programs etc means money moving around the economy. Fast food will do the same for all countries around the world unless governments take away people's freedom to eat. We ban alcohol but would we ban other foods in the same way? Don't see that coming with equal force.

[Robski]

If people can't make money off investments and mortgages, they will start to save. Further compounding the problems in the economy.

That means less burgers and some slimmer waistlines all round..

[highdiver]

the stock markes in all the world shoot up today!!!

what this about selling short???

"short" is when you sell your condo in BKK in 2006 and then find out that it is now worth double.

its called short as in "Short sight"

[bingobongo]

hello highdiver, i miss your simple and witless ways, i had hoped you disappeared for good, but i guess christmas is over

anyway, the global rally is getting long in the tooth (as stated in my previous post) as the run up to the FOMC on Jan 30 is here

so get ready and strap in.................

since this is the thai board, if 750 doesnt hold (754 as i write this), then 725 is next support on the SET

[highdiver]

hello highdiver, i miss your simple and witless ways, i had hoped you disappeared for good, but i guess christmas is over

anyway, the global rally is getting long in the tooth (as stated in my previous post) as the run up to the FOMC on Jan 30 is here

so get ready and strap in.................

since this is the thai board, if 750 doesnt hold (754 as i write this), then 725 is next support on the SET

Bingo it seems you are the last one of the dooms day brigade

it did not work in the Thailand is in crisis

it did not work at the Junta is the end.

it did not work on the condo prices.

and its not working here as well... incase you did not underatnad or dont want to understand same of the remarks by people who actually understand a little bit about this.

its allways nice to read and be entertained by your doom and gloom predictions but it seems that you are taking this way to far.

I realy dont understand why you have such a keen intrest in Thailand?? you made it very clear that you despise everything about this country.

You have a 6 figure income in the west and although you can choose any country you seem to be obsessed with posting dooms day predictions or economic data which you clearly dont understand on Thai Visa.

now please continue and entertain us.

[bingobongo]

highdiver, i realize you have the acumen of a small durian, go back to your bar stool and stick to a savings account

but anyway to the rest of you did you notice something today?

Fed funds rate as of Jan 29 = 3.5%

10 yr bond yield = 3.65%

for the astute among you (not highdiver), do you see a problem? IF the FOMC cuts to 3% tomorrow the 10 yr could jump to around 4.20%, that would be a big boo boo, the inversion would be much worse.....fed cannot control the bond market

if the FOMC cuts only .25%, market will be disappointed

the last two times the inversion was that high was lets see.........july 2007 and oct 2007

get ready

[Naam]

highdiver, i realize you have the acumen of a small durian, go back to your bar stool and stick to a savings account

but anyway to the rest of you did you notice something today?

Fed funds rate as of Jan 29 = 3.5% 10 yr bond yield = 3.65%

for the astute among you (not highdiver), do you see a problem? IF the FOMC cuts to 3% tomorrow the 10 yr could jump to around 4.20%, that would be a big boo boo, the inversion would be much worse.....fed cannot control the bond market

if the FOMC cuts only .25%, market will be disappointed

the last two times the inversion was that high was lets see.........july 2007 and oct 2007

get ready

somehow i have the feeling there'll be only 25bps but don't ask me why.

[sonicdragon]

highdiver, i realize you have the acumen of a small durian, go back to your bar stool and stick to a savings account

but anyway to the rest of you did you notice something today?

Fed funds rate as of Jan 29 = 3.5% 10 yr bond yield = 3.65%

for the astute among you (not highdiver), do you see a problem? IF the FOMC cuts to 3% tomorrow the 10 yr could jump to around 4.20%, that would be a big boo boo, the inversion would be much worse.....fed cannot control the bond market

if the FOMC cuts only .25%, market will be disappointed

the last two times the inversion was that high was lets see.........july 2007 and oct 2007

get ready

somehow i have the feeling there'll be only 25bps but don't ask me why.

I tend to agree, for the following reasons:

- the Fed must surely have been deliberating a 1% cut last week but settled on 75bp giving them 10 days to evaluate the picture.

- the economic picture has not materially changed. Weak new home sales and better durable goods orders cloud the picture.

- the stress in world financial markets at the time of the emergency cut was at least in part due to the actions of a rogue trader.

- a 50bp cut tomorrow would be seen as further evidence of appeasing wall street.

So if they go with 25 it will surely be a disappointment to the markets. If they go with 50, it could bring a lot more downward pressure on the USD and upward pressure on long rates.

[highdiver]

highdiver, i realize you have the acumen of a small durian, go back to your bar stool and stick to a savings account

but anyway to the rest of you did you notice something today?

Fed funds rate as of Jan 29 = 3.5%

10 yr bond yield = 3.65%

for the astute among you (not highdiver), do you see a problem? IF the FOMC cuts to 3% tomorrow the 10 yr could jump to around 4.20%, that would be a big boo boo, the inversion would be much worse.....fed cannot control the bond market

if the FOMC cuts only .25%, market will be disappointed

the last two times the inversion was that high was lets see.........july 2007 and oct 2007

get ready

cut and paste!!! cut and paste...you have no idea what you are on about... do you??? you just cut and paste..

so what if he cuts the rate again? is anyone out there not expecting this??

please read those reports that you cut and paste from and maybe you learn something...

as for the news today.

stocks went up another 0.5 % on wallstreet. D closed at 12,480 a little higher then Bingo short position...

companies not in the finannce sector are showing great results, congress aprroves emergency plan, and an increase of 5.2% in durable goods orders and is mainly due to export to other countries of amercian made products.

even fuell prices are going down...

carefull Bingo there a heard of bulls runnning you way.

Vegas Vic I agree with you EU is heading for a small corection as well.

[LaoPo]

Fed cuts key rate by half a point, signals for more

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

Last update: 3:15 p.m. EST Jan. 30, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Fearing that financial-market turmoil and a weak housing market could cause the economy to spiral downward, the Federal Reserve moved aggressively for the second time in eight days to lower interest rates and signaled it was ready to do more as needed.

Continues here:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-...SecEditorsPicks

Fed Lowers Rate to 3% as U.S. Expansion Falters

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

Fed Cuts Rates by Half Point

With its second rate cut in nine days the Federal Reserve continued one of its most aggressive monetary easing campaigns in recent history as it seeks to nip an incipient recession in the bud.

The Fed lowered its short-term interest rate target 0.5 percentage points to 3%, and left the door open to more: the statement accompanying the move said "downside risks to growth remain" and the Fed would "act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks." Investors expect the Fed to cut the rate to 2.75% in March.

From: The Wall Street Journal

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

US rates cut to avoid recession

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the second time in nine days as it tries to keep the US economy from entering a recession.

Continues here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7218055.stm

US economic growth drops sharply

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7217769.stm

LaoPo

[Retiredby30]

i picked up some nice bargains last week.

[LaoPo]

i picked up some nice bargains last week.

7-11 or Tesco ?

LaoPo

[Naam]

Fed funds rate as of Jan 29 = 3.5% 10 yr bond yield = 3.65%

for the astute among you (not highdiver), do you see a problem? IF the FOMC cuts to 3% tomorrow the 10 yr could jump to around 4.20%, that would be a big boo boo, the inversion would be much worse.....fed cannot control the bond market

i can see one huge big boo boo 10-Year 4.250 104-20+ / 3.68 -0-00+ / .001 16:39

[Retiredby30]

when are there ever bargains in 711?

[lannarebirth]

i picked up some nice bargains last week.

It's all relative isn't it? If something is 50% overpriced and gets discounted 20% can it be called a bargain? Save some cash for the late March "going out of business" sale.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_va.aspx?EditionID=645

Edited January 31, 2008 by lannarebirth

[LaoPo]

i picked up some nice bargains last week.

It's all relative isn't it? If something is 50% overpriced and gets discounted 20% can it be called a bargain? Save some cash for the late March "going out of business" sale.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_va.aspx?EditionID=645

"....now working at Societe Generale in London."

Perfect timing of this investment letter chaps....

LaoPo

[highdiver]

Fed funds rate as of Jan 29 = 3.5% 10 yr bond yield = 3.65%

for the astute among you (not highdiver), do you see a problem? IF the FOMC cuts to 3% tomorrow the 10 yr could jump to around 4.20%, that would be a big boo boo, the inversion would be much worse.....fed cannot control the bond market

i can see one huge big boo boo 10-Year 4.250 104-20+ / 3.68 -0-00+ / .001 16:39

[highdiver]

japan stocks soar...

Thailand set is flying.... what was that about 750...

what was that about short...

[ace]

japan stocks soar...

Thailand set is flying.... what was that about 750...

what was that about short...

I'd bet they'll be back down tommorow, I'm going to set myself up for a flaming but I'm calling Dow to hit 9999 within 6 months .

Anyone care for a sportsman's bet?

[SoCal]

when are there ever bargains in 711?

On July 11th.