Democrats could win Midterm— then immediately start fighting each other Winning the midterms could be the easy partThe Democrats may be heading towards a major political victory in next year's midterms. But if they win back the House, they could discover that getting into power is the easy bit. Waiting for them in Washington will be a party increasingly divided between an insurgent progressive left and a centrist bloc that has become increasingly willing to defy its own leadership. And sitting in the middle of it all will be Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could become Speaker — while simultaneously trying to prevent his own party from tearing itself apart. The left is no longer waiting patientlyThe Democratic Party's progressive wing has had a remarkably successful summer. Candidates running on increasingly left-wing platforms have defeated established Democrats in a series of primaries, while groups such as Justice Democrats have enjoyed their strongest cycle yet. Nine candidates backed by the organisation have won their primaries. Their message is straightforward. The Democratic establishment is out of touch. And the new generation coming to Washington does not intend to sit quietly at the back of the room. Jeffries has a problem called Medicare for AllOne of the biggest flashpoints is Medicare for All. Progressive Democrats expected their party leadership to embrace the issue. Jeffries didn't. He has publicly said he does not support the legislation, arguing instead that Democrats need to fix America's broken healthcare system and build something better. For the progressive wing, that was more than a policy disagreement. It was a warning. If Democrats win the House, they want their victory to produce a dramatically different agenda — not simply restore the old Democratic leadership. And then there's IsraelForeign policy is creating another fracture. Progressives have become increasingly vocal in demanding a major change in American policy towards Israel. The elevation of Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a prominent supporter of Israel, to a powerful Foreign Affairs subcommittee position has therefore infuriated parts of the left. Jeffries' allies insist he was not responsible for the appointment. But politically, that may not matter. The progressive wing is watching every appointment, every committee position and every vote. Then the moderates rebelAnd here's where the Democratic problem gets even more complicated. It isn't just the left causing headaches. Centrists inside the House Democratic caucus have also shown that they are prepared to defy leadership when they disagree. Some recently broke with their own party on procedural votes — in cases where their actions effectively helped Republicans. Jeffries' team is now discussing ways to punish members who undermine the leadership. That idea has infuriated both wings. The progressives say elected representatives must be free to dissent. Centrists argue that a political party cannot function if its members routinely ignore its leadership. Suddenly the Democrats have a rather familiar problem: They don't agree on what being a Democrat actually means. The Speaker's vote could be the first battleAll of this could come crashing together on the first major vote after the election. The Speaker's vote. Jeffries is widely expected to remain the favourite if Democrats regain control of the House. But several incoming progressives have refused to promise their support. And that gives them enormous leverage. They don't necessarily have to oppose Jeffries. They simply have to keep him guessing. Every undecided vote becomes a bargaining chip. The new Democrats want something in returnThe incoming progressive members are not necessarily arriving in Washington simply to make trouble. Their argument is that voters sent them there to deliver something different. Their priorities include affordability, anti-corruption measures, universal childcare, a higher minimum wage and major changes to housing policy. Some also want to end the sale of US weapons to Israel, create a Green New Deal for public housing and abolish super PACs. Whether all of those proposals could ever pass is another question. But the new members clearly intend to push them. Jeffries is caught between two partiesThat leaves Jeffries with an almost impossible job. On one side are progressives demanding a dramatic ideological shift. On the other are moderates who fear that moving too far left could make it impossible for Democrats to win and hold vulnerable seats in Republican territory. Jeffries therefore has to answer two completely different questions. How far left can Democrats go without frightening swing voters? And: How far right can Democratic leadership remain before its own activists revolt? There may not be an answer that satisfies both camps. The primary battles were a warningThe bitterness has already appeared during the election campaign. In California, progressive candidate Aisha Wahab faced opposition from Democratic establishment figures before ultimately winning and entering Congress. In Michigan, progressives are furious that Will Lawrence has not received the full backing they expected from the Democratic campaign apparatus. The arguments are no longer theoretical. The Democratic establishment and its insurgent wing are already fighting over who gets to represent the party. This isn't the old Democratic PartyThat may be the most important point. For years, Democratic leaders were able to manage their ideological differences behind closed doors. That is becoming much harder. The progressive movement has discovered that it can defeat established politicians in primaries. Once you've demonstrated that power, you don't generally hand it back. And the new generation appears determined to arrive in Washington with its own mandate. Democrats could win — and still lose controlWhich brings us back to the midterms. Democrats may indeed take the House. Republicans could find themselves suddenly staring across the aisle at a new Democratic majority. But the first great battle of that majority may not be against Donald Trump or Republican leadership. It may be inside the Democratic caucus itself. Jeffries could have to negotiate with progressives demanding Medicare for All while keeping centrists from rebelling. He could face pressure over Israel, committee appointments, leadership rules and the party's economic agenda. And every faction will know that a narrow majority gives them enormous power. Winning is only the beginningThe Democrats therefore face an unusual political paradox. They may finally get the result they have been working towards. They may win back the House. They may even make Jeffries Speaker. And then the real fight begins. Because defeating the Republicans will require one coalition. Governing the Democrats will require another. The question is whether Jeffries can hold together a party that increasingly appears to contain two very different Democratic Parties under one roof. And if he can't? Well... Republicans might not have to defeat the Democrats at all. SOURCE
