Picture courtesy of Bangkok Post

The latest Nida Poll reveals a pivotal shift in Thailand's political scene as the general election approaches on February 8, 2026. While the People's Party (PP) leads in constituency and party-list voting, the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) is rapidly gaining momentum, supported by nationalist sentiment and strategic timing.

The "First Round: Election Momentum 2026" poll shows PP's support peaking and starting to stabilise. Meanwhile, ongoing Thai-Cambodian border issues and economic policies such as the Khon La Krueng Plus initiative contribute to BJT's rise. Suvicha Pouaree, the Director of the Nida Poll Centre, observes that nationalism, which is gaining significant traction in the Northeast, is the primary driver of this surge.

However, the PP faces challenges in expanding its demographic appeal. It struggles to regain its previously strong support among young voters, especially following Pita Limjaroenrat's leadership. Now, under Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the PP retains a narrower youth base, down from 70% to just over 50%.

The BJT's rising influence is notable among voters aged 46 and up, where PP's efforts lag behind. Moreover, the BJT's dynamic leadership under Anutin Charnvirakul is attracting widespread support, particularly in regions responding strongly to nationalist themes.

Poll forecasts suggest the BJT could emerge as the leading party, potentially winning 140 to 150 seats. The PP is expected to follow with 120 to 130 seats, and Pheu Thai might secure around 80 seats. Despite traditionally strong support, Pheu Thai's influence seems to be waning, as its campaign struggles to break into new voter bases.

Analysts predict a potential coalition government featuring the BJT and Pheu Thai, possibly with support from the Democrat Party or the Klatham Party. Suvicha Pouaree anticipates that such a coalition might comfortably exceed the 300-seat threshold, aligning with voter sentiment in key regions.

As the election date nears, 10% of voters remain undecided. Significant shifts in poll results seem unlikely without substantial political developments. Political scientist Stithorn Thananithichot believes BJT's momentum is genuine, with conservative voters consolidating their support behind the party.

Looking ahead, the formation of a BJT-led government partnering with Pheu Thai appears as a likely outcome, with the final decision dependent on electoral seat distribution. Experts remain cautious but acknowledge that changing political winds may impact the direction of Thailand's future governance, reported the Bangkok Post.

Key Takeaways:

• Bhumjaithai Party is gaining ground amidst nationalist sentiments.

• People's Party stabilises but struggles with younger voter demographics.

• Analysts foresee a possible BJT-Pheu Thai coalition government.

  

Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2026-01-19

 

 

Yep, it´s going to be the same circus once again.

Like I've said before, Thailand is decades away from any meaningful change, the dinosaurs are fully entrenched. In fact, if anything, things are worse now than they ever were, change? Not on your life, expect things to get much-much worse before they ever get better. This is where the emboldened and entrenched dinosaurs strip everything they can from Thailand before it hits rock bottom.

I hope it will never happen.. People's Party will win the elections, but the old conservatives and corrupt politicians will do everything to prevent they can form a Government, so that BJT and Pheu Thai like last time can govern again.. I hope that the Peoples Party will get so many votes that they don't need any other party. Time to get a change in Thailand, but it will be very difficult as long as the army, elite, and conservatives are not beaten

The People's Party in power by itself would be not good for Expats. One of their clear election promises is to introduce a Social Welfare system for all people. Whilst that sounds great to woke liberals, the actual effect will be 10s of millions of Thais receiving welfare payments - the numbers of dole bludgers and other parasites will be far worse than in Western countries. Not only will that destroy the current Thai nature of independent living and self reliance, that will require a massive increase in taxation revenues and Expats will (again) be in their sights.

If anyone thinks that is wrong - then consider this reality. In Australia the single motherhood social welfare support payments were introduced on the basis of those in desperate need. Now there are 328,000 people receiving the payment, plus energy supplement, plus rent assistance, plus housing support and many other little benefits (free transpor, medical, clothing, etc etc.). Just the payments alone total over $9 Billion AUD per year. When you then add all the others it is estimated at over $12 billion a year.

Do you not think single Mothers in Thailand will not jump at that deal? Why work when you get to stay home and receive all that support? And that is just the top of the iceberg - do you have any idea how many drug addicted people there are in Thailand who would all jump on board. Creating a welfare state in a 3rd world country will destroy its economy, and create irreversible changes to the social behaviour and cohesion that exists today in Thailand.

3 minutes ago, XRules said:

The People's Party in power by itself would be not good for Expats. One of their clear election promises is to introduce a Social Welfare system for all people. Whilst that sounds great to woke liberals, the actual effect will be 10s of millions of Thais receiving welfare payments - the numbers of dole bludgers and other parasites will be far worse than in Western countries. Not only will that destroy the current Thai nature of independent living and self reliance, that will require a massive increase in taxation revenues and Expats will (again) be in their sights.

If anyone thinks that is wrong - then consider this reality. In Australia the single motherhood social welfare support payments were introduced on the basis of those in desperate need. Now there are 328,000 people receiving the payment, plus energy supplement, plus rent assistance, plus housing support and many other little benefits (free transpor, medical, clothing, etc etc.). Just the payments alone total over $9 Billion AUD per year. When you then add all the others it is estimated at over $12 billion a year.

Do you not think single Mothers in Thailand will not jump at that deal? Why work when you get to stay home and receive all that support? And that is just the top of the iceberg - do you have any idea how many drug addicted people there are in Thailand who would all jump on board. Creating a welfare state in a 3rd world country will destroy its economy, and create irreversible changes to the social behaviour and cohesion that exists today in Thailand.

I think you'll find out, especially in the USA, that welfare pays significantly more than most hard working lower paid people. Which is why we have so many on the system collecting for doing nothing, sometimes whole families for generations. It's time the world puts an end to generational welfare, it should be a very short helping-hand (6 months or less in a 10 year period), not a lifelong support system.

Look at that special guy on the bike with his special smile.

9 minutes ago, XRules said:

The People's Party in power by itself would be not good for Expats. One of their clear election promises is to introduce a Social Welfare system for all people. Whilst that sounds great to woke liberals, the actual effect will be 10s of millions of Thais receiving welfare payments - the numbers of dole bludgers and other parasites will be far worse than in Western countries. Not only will that destroy the current Thai nature of independent living and self reliance, that will require a massive increase in taxation revenues and Expats will (again) be in their sights.

If anyone thinks that is wrong - then consider this reality. In Australia the single motherhood social welfare support payments were introduced on the basis of those in desperate need. Now there are 328,000 people receiving the payment, plus energy supplement, plus rent assistance, plus housing support and many other little benefits (free transpor, medical, clothing, etc etc.). Just the payments alone total over $9 Billion AUD per year. When you then add all the others it is estimated at over $12 billion a year.

Do you not think single Mothers in Thailand will not jump at that deal? Why work when you get to stay home and receive all that support? And that is just the top of the iceberg - do you have any idea how many drug addicted people there are in Thailand who would all jump on board. Creating a welfare state in a 3rd world country will destroy its economy, and create irreversible changes to the social behaviour and cohesion that exists today in Thailand.

another poster that does no research and just posts BS !!!

Eligible Thai citizens receive various forms of government welfare payments and subsidies, particularly targeted at low-income individuals, the elderly, disabled, and families with children

. Key welfare programs include:

• State Welfare Card (Buree-Karn-Haeng-Rat): As of late 2025, over 13 million low-income, registered citizens receive monthly allowances for essential goods (food, supplies, transport, and utilities).

• Economic Stimulus Payments: The "Kon La Krueng Plus" (Half-Half Plus) scheme and other stimulus packages provide additional cash injections to welfare cardholders (e.g., an extra 850 baht per month in Nov/Dec 2025) to boost consumption.

• Childcare Support: Starting in 2025, the Social Security Office (SSO) increased child welfare payments to 1,000 baht per month per child (up to 3 children) for qualifying insured individuals, along with a 15,000 baht lump sum for childbirth.

• Elderly and Disability Allowances: Monthly living allowances are provided for senior citizens (ranging from 600 to 1,000 baht based on age) and registered disabled individuals.

• Employee Welfare Fund (EWF): As of October 1, 2025, a new fund provides financial assistance to employees in case of termination or death

22 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

I think you'll find out, especially in the USA, that welfare pays significantly more than most hard working lower paid people. Which is why we have so many on the system collecting for doing nothing, sometimes whole families for generations. It's time the world puts an end to generational welfare, it should be a very short helping-hand (6 months or less in a 10 year period), not a lifelong support system.

Exactly - it has become generational in many western countries. There is also the cost in the time and money to travel to and from work, and the costs of food, clothes, etc. Plus they all do a little 'on the side' to make a bit extra - everything from selling vegetables they grow to drugs. The equation just does not add up unless you have the chance to earn big bucks from working - and most people here in Thailand certainly do not have jobs earning good money.

I don't know if it matters who wins. I kind of favor just having the military take over again and keep things as they are.

The People's Party kind of worries me. They want to "expand the tax base" which means dragging all Thais into the tax system, which of course is both a loss of freedom and gives the government enhanced control.

23 minutes ago, MikeandDow said:

another poster that does no research and just posts BS !!!

Eligible Thai citizens receive various forms of government welfare payments and subsidies, particularly targeted at low-income individuals, the elderly, disabled, and families with children

. Key welfare programs include:

• State Welfare Card (Buree-Karn-Haeng-Rat): As of late 2025, over 13 million low-income, registered citizens receive monthly allowances for essential goods (food, supplies, transport, and utilities).

• Economic Stimulus Payments: The "Kon La Krueng Plus" (Half-Half Plus) scheme and other stimulus packages provide additional cash injections to welfare cardholders (e.g., an extra 850 baht per month in Nov/Dec 2025) to boost consumption.

• Childcare Support: Starting in 2025, the Social Security Office (SSO) increased child welfare payments to 1,000 baht per month per child (up to 3 children) for qualifying insured individuals, along with a 15,000 baht lump sum for childbirth.

• Elderly and Disability Allowances: Monthly living allowances are provided for senior citizens (ranging from 600 to 1,000 baht based on age) and registered disabled individuals.

• Employee Welfare Fund (EWF): As of October 1, 2025, a new fund provides financial assistance to employees in case of termination or death

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about - all those payments are severely restricted, and they are for SFA money. I am married to a Thai with an extended Thai family - I know a lot more than a bloke sitting in a room in Pattaya searching the internet (is that you?).

Did you come across this while searching the internet ? (unable to post FB link)

The PP have announced CRADLE to the GRAVE as their mantra for their ADDITIONAL Social Welfare support that they are promising to deliver - both in typoes of payments and the amounts being paid. That Facebook article only covers one of them - single motherhood payments (and their increases to those payments) - there are a lot more that PP plan to introduce.

IMO if BJT and PT create a coalition and form Government, that will be the best possible outcome given the current circumstances in Thailand. They will be a 'conservative' alliance, but not as conservative as the military elite who have put Thailand into the economic situation they currently are. A woke liberal socialist Government (PP) is not what is needed at this time - hopefully they will not win and destroy the country far worse than the military has been doing.

4 minutes ago, XRules said:

Exactly - it has become generational in many western countries. There is also the cost in the time and money to travel to and from work, and the costs of food, clothes, etc. Plus they all do a little 'on the side' to make a bit extra - everything from selling vegetables they grow to drugs. The equation just does not add up unless you have the chance to earn big bucks from working - and most people here in Thailand certainly do not have jobs earning good money.

realy you have no idea !! Quote" and most people here in Thailand certainly do not have jobs earning good money" Unqote "it is all relative to the cost of living in the country" you must not travel to different countrys. you need lessons in how to do research before posting because so far all i read is BS

Just now, MikeandDow said:

realy you have no idea !! Quote" and most people here in Thailand certainly do not have jobs earning good money" Unqote "it is all relative to the cost of living in the country" you must not travel to different countrys. you need lessons in how to do research before posting because so far all i read is BS

Cognitive Bias - a woke liberal reading?

The vast majority of Thais are on minimum wages or slightly above - and that is all they are likely to be able to earn for most of their lives. This aint the West mate - it does not work that way here. PS - of the 70 million Thais, the vast majority are not in Bangkok or Tourist places - they are in the Provinces.

11 minutes ago, davb said:

I don't know if it matters who wins. I kind of favor just having the military take over again and keep things as they are.

The People's Party kind of worries me. They want to "expand the tax base" which means dragging all Thais into the tax system, which of course is both a loss of freedom and gives the government enhanced control.

Exactly - the PP would change Thailand from what they are today - they cannot introduce all their welfare state BS without a massive increase in taxation. I like Singapore - but the people there are not the same as Thai People - because they changed when they 'developed'. IMO Thailand needs to have a balance to keep their society the way it is now. I did not like Prayut that much - but he said it clearly several times - Thailand is for Thais - and he did not want them to change their personal behaviours and beliefs. PP is a snake in the grass offering freebies.

1 minute ago, XRules said:

Cognitive Bias - a woke liberal reading?

The vast majority of Thais are on minimum wages or slightly above - and that is all they are likely to be able to earn for most of their lives. This aint the West mate - it does not work that way here. PS - of the 70 million Thais, the vast majority are not in Bangkok or Tourist places - they are in the Provinces.

as am i in the Provinces and have been for 25yrs yes the vast majority of Thais are on minimum wages or slightly above remember this is a third world country and will always be you need to stop thinking you are in the west everything is relative you are trying to compare wages with western wages which you can not do

1 minute ago, MikeandDow said:

as am i in the Provinces and have been for 25yrs yes the vast majority of Thais are on minimum wages or slightly above remember this is a third world country and will always be you need to stop thinking you are in the west everything is relative you are trying to compare wages with western wages which you can not do

Now you are agreeing with me. What exactly are you trying to say??

My points - The current welfare is greatly restricted and very low levels of payments. The PP plan to greatly expand it and increase payments will be a disaster (and require heaps of additional taxes). Thais are poor and always will be poor - they will jump at taking welfare rather than working. Unlike in the west where we all start on low salaries and the vast majority work our way up in salary (we dont work at McDonalds etc. forever). Most Thais do not have that opportunity to increase their salary a lot over a 'career' and thus the PP welfare is very appealing . A big family on PP welfare living cheaply all in one house here would be extremely viable. It is bad enough in the West - but here it would be catastrophic - most Thais would take the welfare.

2 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

Yep, it´s going to be the same circus once again.

Tend to agree, not expecting the military influence to die just yet. Perhaps 1 or 2 more elctions it will wain enough that the peoples choice gets the big chair. We wait nad see.

4 minutes ago, XRules said:

Now you are agreeing with me. What exactly are you trying to say??

My points - The current welfare is greatly restricted and very low levels of payments. The PP plan to greatly expand it and increase payments will be a disaster (and require heaps of additional taxes). Thais are poor and always will be poor - they will jump at taking welfare rather than working. Unlike in the west where we all start on low salaries and the vast majority work our way up in salary (we dont work at McDonalds etc. forever). Most Thais do not have that opportunity to increase their salary a lot over a 'career' and thus the PP welfare is very appealing . A big family on PP welfare living cheaply all in one house here would be extremely viable. It is bad enough in the West - but here it would be catastrophic - most Thais would take the welfare.

not agreeing with you, you want Thailand to be Stagnant, Thailand needs to be advancing and developing and you are classifying Thais as dole bludgers you are way wrong the majority of young Thais want change and rightly so go back in your cave

16 minutes ago, MikeandDow said:

not agreeing with you, you want Thailand to be Stagnant, Thailand needs to be advancing and developing and you are classifying Thais as dole bludgers you are way wrong the majority of young Thais want change and rightly so go back in your cave

Clearly you are not agreeing with me - and clearly you have no facts or logic to give in regards to your position and opinion. I want Thailand to modernise and grow - I never said I dont and you are AGAIN thinking wrong claiming I meant that. Creating a welfare state in Thailand is the wrong way to make Thailand modernise and grow. The young Thais that think like you and believe that welfare will solve their problems are totally wrong - that will make it worse. You are completely out of touch with reality if you do not realise that most poor Thais will stay at home in the Provinces if they are paid enough money by the Government for being unemployed or a single Mum or sick or old or need support from the Govt.

25 minutes ago, MikeandDow said:

the majority of young Thais want change

This is true and because of that I think the elites realize that the current system won't last as the older people die off. That's why there are all these facial recognition cameras, AI data centers, banking rules to remove all privacy and add a layer of control which will be the new way to maintain power. Expanding the tax base is part of this.

It seems like Thaksin was put in place to usher it all in. A rich elite Thai family controlling a significant part of the economy must realize it comes to an end in ten years if they don't change their approach.

5 minutes ago, XRules said:

Clearly you are not agreeing with me - and clearly you have no facts or logic to give in regards to your position and opinion. I want Thailand to modernise and grow - I never said I dont and you are AGAIN thinking wrong claiming I meant that. Creating a welfare state in Thailand is the wrong way to make Thailand modernise and grow. The young Thais that think like you and believe that welfare will solve their problems are totally wrong - that will make it worse. You are completely out of touch with reality if you do not realise that most poor Thais will stay at home in the Provinces if they are paid enough money by the Government for being unemployed or a single Mum or sick or old or need support from the Govt.

You stated Quote a Social Welfare system for all people. fact Thailand HAS a welfare system YOU have to remember YOU do not speak for thais had enought of your BS

12 minutes ago, MikeandDow said:

You stated Quote a Social Welfare system for all people. fact Thailand HAS a welfare system YOU have to remember YOU do not speak for thais had enought of your BS

You are BS mate - not me. What I have said is my opinion on what Thailand should and should not do - I am not speaking for Thais and never claimed to be doing so. It is you that thinks he/she can speak on behalf of Thais. You claimed 25 years in the Provinces - I say BS.

16 minutes ago, davb said:

This is true and because of that I think the elites realize that the current system won't last as the older people die off. That's why there are all these facial recognition cameras, AI data centers, banking rules to remove all privacy and add a layer of control which will be the new way to maintain power. Expanding the tax base is part of this.

It seems like Thaksin was put in place to usher it all in. A rich elite Thai family controlling a significant part of the economy must realize it comes to an end in ten years if they don't change their approach.

Well said - but I dont think it was planned about Thaksin - he did not plan to go to jail. But the end result is as you have said - the elite know change must be allowed - how far they allow it is yet to be seen. I do agree that they do realise that if the election goes where they dont want, and they again reject and ban the political Party and Leader the People selected, the backlash from the world community will be severe. And if that takes the form of another Coup - all hell will break loose - and who knows what Trump will do (90% tariffs?). They got away with what happened after the 2023 election because the World was very much focussed on post Covid recovery - that will not happen again.

If the People Party keep wittering on about pronouns and other first world nonsense, they deserve to lose.

Thai people have real challenges and pronouns ain't one of them.

9 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

If the People Party keep wittering on about pronouns and other first world nonsense, they deserve to lose.

Thai people have real challenges and pronouns ain't one of them.

They don't seem like a serious party. Their cannabis stance was disappointing also.

1 hour ago, Kinnock said:

If the People Party keep wittering on about pronouns and other first world nonsense, they deserve to lose. Thai people have real challenges and pronouns ain't one of them.

Mate - it is all the current woke liberal socialists have as a platform - minorities and grievances. Instead of backing down after seeing the People in most 1st world countries going more right wing - they have doubled down. PP has backed down on the anti-royal rhetoric, but they still want to create a welfare state in Thailand. Hopefully the PP lose and become the Opposition - and then over time get rid of the far left nonsense and become the centre-left alternative to the right wing BJT and PT coalition - with the too-far right Military pushed out completely. Maybe the Democrats will get involved in the BJT and PT coalition too - they are right wing as well.

IMO that would be a good thing for Thailand - basically a two Party system between left wing and right wing - with Power moving back and forth between them. Just like all Democracies/Republics before them, Thailand is still in the initial phases of political 'settlement'. Right now there are too many Parties and they all squabble and fight to get a bigger share. Having a stable right wing and left wing Party as the main political forces in a country, makes things drift to and from the centre - massive shifts from far-right to far-left do not work out very well.

2 hours ago, scorecard said:

Tend to agree, not expecting the military influence to die just yet. Perhaps 1 or 2 more elctions it will wain enough that the peoples choice gets the big chair. We wait nad see.

I agree. Unfortunately, you are far too optimistic. I would say 5-8 elections if ever.

1 hour ago, davb said:

They don't seem like a serious party. Their cannabis stance was disappointing also.

Yes - they are a University academic ideologue based Party. The key players are still too young to be able to play the political game, and are certainly not ready to lead yet. They are like the previous PM - far too young and inexperienced to be able to manage things - especially when the proverbial hits the fan.

Inflammatory post removed

8 hours ago, lordgrinz said:

Like I've said before, Thailand is decades away from any meaningful change, the dinosaurs are fully entrenched. In fact, if anything, things are worse now than they ever were, change? Not on your life, expect things to get much-much worse before they ever get better. This is where the emboldened and entrenched dinosaurs strip everything they can from Thailand before it hits rock bottom.

+1 You are so right. Nothing can be truer. Elections in Thailand is only a show, to get the uneducated to believe that they have a say. Somehow, it´s working incredibly well, as seems very easy to do.