One thing at least seems certain: If you don't elect a government prepared to shake up the system, offend some people and introduce real changes ('education system' anyone?) - no doubt making some mistakes along the way, then nothing will change and supercilious criminals will continue to rule the country.

23 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

Yep, it´s going to be the same circus once again.

It's going to be another coalition government, it just depends on who sides with who...

One particular party is having a rally here at work today. They expect over 4,000 people to join... and they get 100 per person and 500 per car. As far as I can understand that ain't really a part of democracy... but of course it's nice to see some of the "donations" being distributed to the farmers...

It is musical chair games all along - again. Remember Anutin last summer, when he was about to move up the ladder he has been waiting for all his life?

Let's see if People's Party will shoulder rub with the Democrats. Fun and games for all again ;-)

On 1/19/2026 at 10:54 AM, XRules said:

The People's Party in power by itself would be not good for Expats. One of their clear election promises is to introduce a Social Welfare system for all people. Whilst that sounds great to woke liberals, the actual effect will be 10s of millions of Thais receiving welfare payments - the numbers of dole bludgers and other parasites will be far worse than in Western countries. Not only will that destroy the current Thai nature of independent living and self reliance, that will require a massive increase in taxation revenues and Expats will (again) be in their sights.

If anyone thinks that is wrong - then consider this reality. In Australia the single motherhood social welfare support payments were introduced on the basis of those in desperate need. Now there are 328,000 people receiving the payment, plus energy supplement, plus rent assistance, plus housing support and many other little benefits (free transpor, medical, clothing, etc etc.). Just the payments alone total over $9 Billion AUD per year. When you then add all the others it is estimated at over $12 billion a year.

Do you not think single Mothers in Thailand will not jump at that deal? Why work when you get to stay home and receive all that support? And that is just the top of the iceberg - do you have any idea how many drug addicted people there are in Thailand who would all jump on board. Creating a welfare state in a 3rd world country will destroy its economy, and create irreversible changes to the social behaviour and cohesion that exists today in Thailand.

What has Australia got to do with Thailand's election, there's absolutely no comparison,..seems you have a beef with OZ, and took an opportunity to air it.

23 hours ago, XRules said:

Now you are agreeing with me. What exactly are you trying to say??

My points - The current welfare is greatly restricted and very low levels of payments. The PP plan to greatly expand it and increase payments will be a disaster (and require heaps of additional taxes). Thais are poor and always will be poor - they will jump at taking welfare rather than working. Unlike in the west where we all start on low salaries and the vast majority work our way up in salary (we dont work at McDonalds etc. forever). Most Thais do not have that opportunity to increase their salary a lot over a 'career' and thus the PP welfare is very appealing . A big family on PP welfare living cheaply all in one house here would be extremely viable. It is bad enough in the West - but here it would be catastrophic - most Thais would take the welfare.

You do not know the full extent of the PP policy or costs, or payment, you actually come across as opposing party member...trying to seay votes away from PP.

On 1/19/2026 at 10:54 AM, XRules said:

The People's Party in power by itself would be not good for Expats. One of their clear election promises is to introduce a Social Welfare system for all people. Whilst that sounds great to woke liberals, the actual effect will be 10s of millions of Thais receiving welfare payments - the numbers of dole bludgers and other parasites will be far worse than in Western countries. Not only will that destroy the current Thai nature of independent living and self reliance, that will require a massive increase in taxation revenues and Expats will (again) be in their sights.

If anyone thinks that is wrong - then consider this reality. In Australia the single motherhood social welfare support payments were introduced on the basis of those in desperate need. Now there are 328,000 people receiving the payment, plus energy supplement, plus rent assistance, plus housing support and many other little benefits (free transpor, medical, clothing, etc etc.). Just the payments alone total over $9 Billion AUD per year. When you then add all the others it is estimated at over $12 billion a year.

Do you not think single Mothers in Thailand will not jump at that deal? Why work when you get to stay home and receive all that support? And that is just the top of the iceberg - do you have any idea how many drug addicted people there are in Thailand who would all jump on board. Creating a welfare state in a 3rd world country will destroy its economy, and create irreversible changes to the social behaviour and cohesion that exists today in Thailand.

If the welfare payment is anything like old age pensions I think you will not see that big a surge. Most seniors can not survive without their family.

As to taxing expats i don't fear it that much. Consider most expats are here on pensions from their countries which is exempt.

Either way do you think it would be any better under chichob an tony.

Also how long do you think thaksin will play second fiddle to Anutin. Remember it was Anutim that forced this election by ending daughter6 rein

The only thing that affects me is what will they do about weed, the air and the border.

16 minutes ago, Sydebolle said:

It is musical chair games all along - again. Remember Anutin last summer, when he was about to move up the ladder he has been waiting for all his life?

Let's see if People's Party will shoulder rub with the Democrats. Fun and games for all again ;-)

Yep - Anutin got what he wanted - to be PM. And it is very clear that he is doing a decent job of it - unlike his two predecessors. However, a 'caretaker' PM is an easy role - not much can really go wrong when you are not managing a long term agenda and all the political players are busy planning for the election. He will only stay in the role if he forms a coalition and gets more seats than each of any coalition partners he is able to get together.

That could happen - PP is 'off the boil' and they will not win enough seats to form Government on their own. Last time the PP only got 151 of 500 seats and they needed to form a coalition - and that meant a compromise on their Section 112 reforms. However PP refused and that resulted in the full weight of the Thai Elite destroying them. Hopefully PP will have learned their lesson this time around, and if they do gain a larger amount of seats than other Parties, that they compromise and drop what their coalition partners want them to drop (Social Welfare being a likely issue).

I dont think PP and Dems will be a 'fit' - the Dems are very conservative and their current leader was a conservative PM in the past. I think it more likely BJT and PT will partner with the Dem Party. But politics in Thailand is as predictable as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs - and being in power is like trying to herd a large number of cats.

25 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

What has Australia got to do with Thailand's election, there's absolutely no comparison,..seems you have a beef with OZ, and took an opportunity to air it.

No beef as such - seems you are the one with a beef. Are you from/in UK, NZ, Europe - or USA. If USA then you have no real idea of the massive changes that can happen (like in Aust. UK, NZ, Europe) when the Govt introduces a 'massive scale' welfare system and changes society. If from one of the others then perhaps you are young - under 40 - and you did not see the changes that happened following the welfare state implementations that started in the 80s and then never stopped growing.

13 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

The only thing that affects me is what will they do about weed, the air and the border.

True - but also any changes they make in Immigration and Taxation Laws.

9 minutes ago, XRules said:

True - but also any changes they make in Immigration and Taxation Laws.

Neither affect me as a retired Yank.

11 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

Neither affect me as a retired Yank.

BJT legalised cannabis .... my misses says she's voting for them (former Thaksin voter).

22 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

You do not know the full extent of the PP policy or costs, or payment, you actually come across as opposing party member...trying to seay votes away from PP.

Send me the link to their publicised details and costs - happy to read up.

All I have seen is statements about a cradle to grave welfare system with additional payments for things like unmarried Mothers. That is what happened in Aust (and UK NZ etc.) - it all sounds great and then a decade later the country is spending billions as more and more people see it as a 'lifestyle opportunity' and not what is was supposed to be (short term assistance).

I am predicting what I think will happen - having witnessed it before. Let me tell you a story about homeless kids in Brazil - cannot send a link - current social media searches do not publish it now - but I remember it clearly. About the 1980s in a City (maybe Rio) there was 10s of thousands of homeless kids roaming the streets, so the lefty Government opened up homeless kids centres to look after them - all sounds great - right? Wrong. Besides the initial homeless kids, other parents took the opportunity to dump their kids near the centres, including parents from outside the city. The centres were overwhelmed and of course the lefties wanted more built - so a few more were - and they became swamped too. In the end after about a year the Govt could not afford to continue and shut them down - the vast majority of kids in the centres went back home. Some parents were taking kids there Mondays and picking them up Fridays - it was a total farce. That is what happens in 3rd world countries - what seems like a great social welfare idea just will not work out the way planned.

35 minutes ago, XRules said:

No beef as such - seems you are the one with a beef. Are you from/in UK, NZ, Europe - or USA. If USA then you have no real idea of the massive changes that can happen (like in Aust. UK, NZ, Europe) when the Govt introduces a 'massive scale' welfare system and changes society. If from one of the others then perhaps you are young - under 40 - and you did not see the changes that happened following the welfare state implementations that started in the 80s and then never stopped growing.

Mate, I am a true blue Aussie, I know vull<deleted> when I see it...also, as I said you have no idea of PP full policy, or how it will be applied...you just have a beef with Oz, which has nothing to do with Thailand or PP.

PP is incompetent. They'll do just like they did after the last election: start purging themselves and ousting their members for lack of purity.

On 1/19/2026 at 11:32 AM, davb said:

I don't know if it matters who wins. I kind of favor just having the military take over again and keep things as they are.

The People's Party kind of worries me. They want to "expand the tax base" which means dragging all Thais into the tax system, which of course is both a loss of freedom and gives the government enhanced control.

Prayuth was much, much better. Kept electricity prices down, brought Thailand through Covid with a minimal loss of freedom of movement within the country, maintained the status quo at immigration, and balanced foreign policy strategically well, maneuvering between China and the US, instead of being a lapdog of the PRC.

1 hour ago, Yagoda said:

Neither affect me as a retired Yank.

You live in Thailand? Permanent Resident?

52 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

Mate, I am a true blue Aussie, I know vull<deleted> when I see it...also, as I said you have no idea of PP full policy, or how it will be applied...you just have a beef with Oz, which has nothing to do with Thailand or PP.

No mate - you dont - are you would know your own BS. And you obviously have a beef with reality - social welfare is not a solution in Thailand and will be abused way more than it is in Aust if it is introduced here. Reality.

1 hour ago, kingstonkid said:

If the welfare payment is anything like old age pensions I think you will not see that big a surge. Most seniors can not survive without their family.

As to taxing expats i don't fear it that much. Consider most expats are here on pensions from their countries which is exempt.

Either way do you think it would be any better under chichob an tony.

Also how long do you think thaksin will play second fiddle to Anutin. Remember it was Anutim that forced this election by ending daughter6 rein

The PP are proposing much more than current payments and more of them - and likely to keep increasing.

If PP are in power and desperately need taxation revenue to pay for things - that is my fear is on the Taxation changes that could happen - we are an easy target. But yes those with only a Pension are fine.

I hear you about Thaksin, but I think PT will move forward without him - if it means buddying up to BJT. Politics makes for some very strange bedfellows - it is better to be in power with an enemy, than in opposition and all alone.

On 1/19/2026 at 8:15 AM, webfact said:

the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) is rapidly gaining momentum, supported by nationalist sentiment and strategic timing.

Extremely coincidental border flare up to get those nationalists on board.

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

BJT legalised cannabis .... my misses says she's voting for them (former Thaksin voter).

Keep it legal

1 hour ago, XRules said:

You live in Thailand? Permanent Resident?

Nope. I come and go.

2 hours ago, XRules said:

The PP are proposing much more than current payments and more of them - and likely to keep increasing.

If PP are in power and desperately need taxation revenue to pay for things - that is my fear is on the Taxation changes that could happen - we are an easy target. But yes those with only a Pension are fine.

I hear you about Thaksin, but I think PT will move forward without him - if it means buddying up to BJT. Politics makes for some very strange bedfellows - it is better to be in power with an enemy, than in opposition and all alone.

But BJT and PT want to lower the cost of BTS and do a lot of other things where doyou think they are going to get the money for that.

The bottom line is that this country is financially hurting, and no matter what party is in power, taxes willhave to go up. Where doyou think the money for the military is coming from?

PT will always be part of the Shin family because that is where they get their money from.

4 hours ago, XRules said:

Yep - Anutin got what he wanted - to be PM. And it is very clear that he is doing a decent job of it - unlike his two predecessors. However, a 'caretaker' PM is an easy role - not much can really go wrong when you are not managing a long term agenda and all the political players are busy planning for the election. He will only stay in the role if he forms a coalition and gets more seats than each of any coalition partners he is able to get together.

That could happen - PP is 'off the boil' and they will not win enough seats to form Government on their own. Last time the PP only got 151 of 500 seats and they needed to form a coalition - and that meant a compromise on their Section 112 reforms. However PP refused and that resulted in the full weight of the Thai Elite destroying them. Hopefully PP will have learned their lesson this time around, and if they do gain a larger amount of seats than other Parties, that they compromise and drop what their coalition partners want them to drop (Social Welfare being a likely issue).

I dont think PP and Dems will be a 'fit' - the Dems are very conservative and their current leader was a conservative PM in the past. I think it more likely BJT and PT will partner with the Dem Party. But politics in Thailand is as predictable as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs - and being in power is like trying to herd a large number of cats.

It's hard to predict how many seats The Democrats will get this time. They're undoubtedly revitalized under Abhisit, and this is the liberal wing of The Democrats, if this leads up to 40 seats, then would they join PT and/or Bhumjaithai?

Abhisit resigned over the Dems joining the Prayut government, and now he's said they wouldn't join parties with 'grey politicians'. Well that rules out both BHJ and PT in theory!

I believe they could work with the People's Party, but likely in opposition this time.

2 hours ago, Yagoda said:

Nope. I come and go.

Fair enough - not a problem then.

1 hour ago, kingstonkid said:

But BJT and PT want to lower the cost of BTS and do a lot of other things where do you think they are going to get the money for that.

The bottom line is that this country is financially hurting, and no matter what party is in power, taxes will have to go up. Where do you think the money for the military is coming from?

PT will always be part of the Shin family because that is where they get their money from.

The money for the BTS and Military is nothing compared to the money that will have to be paid out to millions of Thais receiving welfare payments year after year - which is my concern about PP.

I do agree that taxes will be going up - the TRD is working on a new taxation system and Laws to enact it, and it is unlikely that whoever wins will put a stop to that - I think PP will ramp it up and broaden the base to include as many people as possible.

Yes you are right - the Shins are by far the largest donors to PT - I got that wrong - they will not 'let go'.

1 hour ago, bannork said:

It's hard to predict how many seats The Democrats will get this time. They're undoubtedly revitalized under Abhisit, and this is the liberal wing of The Democrats, if this leads up to 40 seats, then would they join PT and/or Bhumjaithai?

Abhisit resigned over the Dems joining the Prayut government, and now he's said they wouldn't join parties with 'grey politicians'. Well that rules out both BHJ and PT in theory!

I believe they could work with the People's Party, but likely in opposition this time.

Good questions - and it is true Abhisit has revived the Democrats - especially in Bangkok and South. He is the person with the most credentials and experience to be the candidate for PM. No doubt he has 'cleaned out' the Party of those that took the deals and gave into the Military Parties - if he somehow becomes PM I believe Thailand would recover and again dominate this Region for trade and economic growth.

As you said though - being in a coalition with PP in opposition would set things up well for them at the subsequent election.

20 hours ago, XRules said:

Yep - Anutin got what he wanted - to be PM. And it is very clear that he is doing a decent job of it - unlike his two predecessors. However, a 'caretaker' PM is an easy role - not much can really go wrong when you are not managing a long term agenda and all the political players are busy planning for the election. He will only stay in the role if he forms a coalition and gets more seats than each of any coalition partners he is able to get together.

That could happen - PP is 'off the boil' and they will not win enough seats to form Government on their own. Last time the PP only got 151 of 500 seats and they needed to form a coalition - and that meant a compromise on their Section 112 reforms. However PP refused and that resulted in the full weight of the Thai Elite destroying them. Hopefully PP will have learned their lesson this time around, and if they do gain a larger amount of seats than other Parties, that they compromise and drop what their coalition partners want them to drop (Social Welfare being a likely issue).

I dont think PP and Dems will be a 'fit' - the Dems are very conservative and their current leader was a conservative PM in the past. I think it more likely BJT and PT will partner with the Dem Party. But politics in Thailand is as predictable as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs - and being in power is like trying to herd a large number of cats.

Certainly agreeing on your input; and yes, it remains a fact that "caretaking" is an easier ticket. 35 years ago, when politics was a boiling pot of led again, Anand Panyarachun coached Thailand twice through troubled waters as a caretaker PM on behest of HM Rama IX. No political ties, no political career, a successful business executive with 20 years of experience in the diplomatic service whose only interest was to calm the political tides which have created havoc over Thailand since 1932.

Future will tell; I - for one - am not betting on anything as ....... betting is illegal in Thailand ;-)

21 hours ago, Aussie999 said:

What has Australia got to do with Thailand's election, there's absolutely no comparison,..seems you have a beef with OZ, and took an opportunity to air it.

Nope Sir, you're barking up the wrong tree - I took Australia as an example as I had just read about all this lately. For argument's sake you could have taken any other country so go back to your barbie and enjoy Australia's most quaffable wines and beers while you are at it ;-)