Barnett: Cambodia could overtake Thailand in 75 years

Cambodia could one day surpass Thailand in both economic size and population, but only if it adopts bold policies to sustain growth and fertility, according to Casey Barnett, former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Cambodia.

Barnett, speaking on social media, argued that Thailand’s historic advantage over its neighbour stems from a wider economic gap. Yet that gap is narrowing. In 2025, Cambodia’s economy expanded by at least 4.8%, more than double Thailand’s 2.1%. Over the past decade, Cambodia’s GDP grew at an average of 5.5% annually, compared with Thailand’s 2%.

Population trends are also shifting. Cambodia’s birth rate, at 2.5 children per woman in 2025, remains far higher than Thailand’s 1.2. If sustained, Cambodia could overtake Thailand’s population within 75 years. However, UN projections suggest Cambodia’s fertility will decline to 1.8 by the end of the century, raising fears the country could fall behind permanently.

Barnett warned that once fertility drops below 1.5, recovery becomes extremely difficult. He outlined six policy measures to counter this decline: extending maternity leave to six months, introducing $100 childcare vouchers, expanding health insurance to cover fertility treatments, offering $3,000 bonuses for families with three or more children, avoiding military conscription, and encouraging skilled Cambodians abroad to return home.

He also proposed attracting foreign professionals with long-term visas and easing labour quotas, while funding these initiatives through higher property taxes. Cambodia currently collects just 0.1% of property value annually, far below rates in the United States.

Barnett’s intervention comes amid growing debate over Cambodia’s demographic and economic future. With Thailand’s growth slowing and its population ageing, Cambodia faces a rare opportunity to close the gap. Whether it succeeds, he argues, will depend on decisive action to sustain both its workforce and its families.

-2026-05-06