Thailand's July inflation rises 1.95%, below forecast

Thailand's headline consumer price index rose 1.95% in July from a year earlier, slowing from 2.42% in June and coming in below market expectations, the Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday, 5 August 2026.

The result was below the 2.55% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, but remained within the Bank of Thailand's target inflation range of 1% to 3%.

Oil prices help slow the rise

Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the ministry's Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said lower oil prices had contributed to the slower increase in the index.

Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile costs of energy and fresh food, rose 1.34% year-on-year in July.

Mr Nantapong also said the likelihood of stagflation - a combination of weak economic growth and persistent inflation - was low and continuing to decline.

Ministry keeps its annual outlook

The ministry expects headline CPI to rise in August and forecasts headline inflation of 2.09% in the third quarter, Mr Nantapong said.

Headline inflation averaged 1.21% over the January-to-July period. The ministry maintained its full-year forecast of 1.5% to 2.5% for 2026.

The headline measure includes energy and fresh food, so movements in fuel and food prices can have a notable effect on the monthly figure. Core inflation is watched separately because it excludes those more volatile items.

The Bank of Thailand left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.00% in June, when it also raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.3%. Its next monetary policy review is scheduled for August 26.

The rate decision will be of interest to foreign residents and business owners with Thai baht borrowing, while inflation readings are among the indicators the central bank considers when setting monetary policy.

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6 August 2026

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