Thailand's headline consumer price index rose 1.95% in July from a year earlier, slowing from 2.42% in June and coming in below market expectations, the Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday, 5 August 2026.

The result was below the 2.55% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, but remained within the Bank of Thailand's target inflation range of 1% to 3%.

Oil prices help slow the rise

Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the ministry's Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said lower oil prices had contributed to the slower increase in the index.

Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile costs of energy and fresh food, rose 1.34% year-on-year in July.

Mr Nantapong also said the likelihood of stagflation - a combination of weak economic growth and persistent inflation - was low and continuing to decline.

Ministry keeps its annual outlook

The ministry expects headline CPI to rise in August and forecasts headline inflation of 2.09% in the third quarter, Mr Nantapong said.

Headline inflation averaged 1.21% over the January-to-July period. The ministry maintained its full-year forecast of 1.5% to 2.5% for 2026.

The headline measure includes energy and fresh food, so movements in fuel and food prices can have a notable effect on the monthly figure. Core inflation is watched separately because it excludes those more volatile items.

The Bank of Thailand left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.00% in June, when it also raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.3%. Its next monetary policy review is scheduled for August 26.

The rate decision will be of interest to foreign residents and business owners with Thai baht borrowing, while inflation readings are among the indicators the central bank considers when setting monetary policy.

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6 August 2026

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Probably they calculate the rising prices and than the 40/60 scheme is calculate it in it and so the inflation is exactly what they want. And maybe they use the lowest energy prices, as the highest was only for a short time. All people are complaining that it is getting so expensive, but everytime it seems that evrybody is wrong.

Couldnt't find (didn't look hard) the old inflation thread. Just back from Makro and some pricing. A couple items up, but nothing silly or that hasn't been raise for a year or 2, so overdue for a slight increase.

Canola Oil, now 84 vs 82 for as long as I can remember

FZ Peaches seem stuck at sale price of 55

Egg (#0) at all time high, 162, as high as 161 last year, though has been above 153 of late

FZ Blueberries, 130, and range past year, 109-229, 179 seems to be normal sale price, so happy to stock, till real sale price, <150

Chicken breast, skin on was high this week, 84, usually in the 70s, thighes evern higher 95, though fluctuates thoughout the year 70-90.

AU Harvey beef prices don't change much, tenderloin last year maybe 980, now 1030, and been that price since new year.

FZ Norwegian Salmon is consistent, 370 ish / 480gr