Super El Niño could split Asia between drought and floods

Super El Niño could split Asia between drought and floods

Asia could face a dramatic weather divide later this year as an unprecedented “super El Niño” threatens to push some of the region's biggest cities towards severe drought while sending others towards dangerous flooding. Research by academics at Bristol and Cardiff universities examined 44 years of rainfall across 12 major South and South-East Asian cities and found that the stronger El Niño becomes, the more likely rainfall is to swing violently away from normal. Bangkok, Jakarta, Surabaya, Phnom Penh, Kuala Lumpur and Mumbai are in the drying zone, while Shanghai, Hangzhou and Colombo are expected to become wetter. Dhaka, Karachi and Faisalabad sit between the two patterns and could go either way.

Scientists say this El Niño is different

The warning is particularly serious because the event is developing with exceptional strength. Sea-surface temperatures could reach 3.6°C above normal, compared with the previous monthly record of 2.75°C during the powerful 2015-16 El Niño. Scientists say nothing in the recorded data comes close to what is now being forecast, leaving the scale of the consequences uncertain. But they believe the direction of the impact is much easier to predict: areas normally prone to drought are likely to become drier, while flood-prone areas could become wetter.

Bangkok and Mumbai face the dry side

For Bangkok and other cities in the drying zone, the warning comes after decades in which many areas have actually experienced increasing rainfall. A weaker monsoon might initially sound like welcome news for flood-hit regions, but scientists warn that prolonged El Niño effects can last for multiple seasons or even years. Without sufficient reservoirs and water storage, a long dry period could quickly threaten agriculture, drinking water and livelihoods.

Too much water or too little

The consequences extend far beyond weather. Flooding can contaminate water supplies and spread diseases, while drought can empty reservoirs and destroy crops. Researchers also warn that El Niño will interact with other climate patterns, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, potentially amplifying or weakening its effects. The wider economic threat is already attracting attention, with separate research estimating that global agricultural output could suffer losses of up to $342 billion during an extreme event. For Asia's megacities, the message is brutally simple: this time the danger may not be too much rain or too little rain — but both at once, depending on where you live.

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