Thai–Myanmar trade push faces hurdles despite $12bn target

Thailand and Myanmar are aiming to lift their bilateral trade to US$12 billion, but experts warn that bureaucratic and labour constraints could slow progress. The pledge followed talks earlier this month between Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing and Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who promised to expand cooperation across energy, agriculture, tourism and infrastructure.

Dr Aat Pisanwanich, an international trade specialist, said the target was achievable if Thai businesses moved quickly to re‑establish a presence in Myanmar. He argued that political changes there offered an opening for renewed investment, but cautioned that import licensing rules and the status of migrant workers remained major obstacles. “We need to simplify regulations and make it easier for goods to flow,” he explained, noting that Myanmar importers must secure foreign currency earnings before purchases can be made.

Trade between the two neighbours stood at US$7.3 billion in 2025, with border commerce accounting for most of the total. Figures for the first half of 2026 show US$3.8 billion, underscoring the scale of the challenge. Thailand relies on Myanmar for natural gas and agricultural products, while Myanmar imports machinery, fertilisers and consumer goods from Thailand.

Min Aung Hlaing has highlighted three special economic zones — Thilawa, Kyauk Phyu and Dawei — as central to future growth. The Dawei deep‑sea port, still under development, is seen as particularly promising given its proximity to Thailand and potential links to India’s Chennai port. Dr Aat believes it could serve both as a trade hub and a tourist destination, creating opportunities for shipping and regional connectivity.

Despite Myanmar’s political turmoil, analysts argue that its location between China and India, low labour costs and abundant resources make it a market worth pursuing. Diversifying supply chains amid global tensions, they say, could benefit both countries.

For Thailand, the challenge will be turning high‑level pledges into practical reforms. Without easing import rules and clarifying labour policies, the ambition of doubling trade may remain more aspiration than reality.

-2026-08-24