Trump’s diplomatic arsenal is running dangerously dry

Donald Trump still commands the world’s most powerful military and richest economy. Yet after months of war, threats and pressure, his ability to force rivals and allies into line is looking increasingly constrained.

The Iran conflict has exposed the limits of a strategy built around intimidation, sanctions and demands for quick victories.

Iran has turned Trump’s gamble into a grinding standoff

Trump entered the conflict expecting Iran’s regime to buckle under military pressure. Instead, Tehran has emerged with a harder-line leadership, while Washington now faces demands for financial concessions and a role for Iran in controlling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump’s latest answer is a sweeping new sanctions campaign. But with Iran already battered economically, it remains unclear whether further pressure can deliver the political collapse the White House wants.

The military option is also harder to repeat. US forces have burned through huge quantities of precision weapons and missile interceptors, creating consequences far beyond the Middle East.

America’s allies are starting to hedge their bets

The depletion of US air-defence stocks matters acutely for Ukraine, where American interceptors remain vital against Russian ballistic missiles. European governments are increasingly preparing to carry more of the burden themselves — but the shift looks less like normal burden-sharing and more like insurance against an unreliable Washington.

The strain is spreading elsewhere. Gulf states have been left questioning the value of an American security umbrella after absorbing Iranian retaliation. South Korea has watched Washington scale back a major military exercise while Trump seeks dialogue with North Korea.

Even Canada, traditionally one of America’s closest partners, has pushed back against Trump’s trade demands.

The real danger is a presidency running out of leverage

Trump can still impose enormous costs. But allies and adversaries alike are learning to anticipate his pressure tactics, resist his demands and build alternatives.

That may be the most consequential shift of all. America’s power has not disappeared — but the automatic deference that once surrounded it is beginning to fade.

With no friends left to burn, Trump is running out of diplomatic ammunition