Trump pushes Canada towards Europe in audacious Carney gamble

THE GREAT CANADIAN PIVOT

Donald Trump has spent months pushing Canada closer to America.

But his pressure may be producing the exact opposite result.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is quietly exploring an extraordinary new relationship with the European Union — one that could bring Canada closer to Europe than any country outside the bloc has ever been.

And European leaders are listening.

THE 28TH STATE?

Carney has been holding private discussions with European leaders about creating a new form of relationship with the EU — potentially an “associate member” status that would stop short of full membership but give Canada much deeper access to Europe's huge single market.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb neatly summed up the extraordinary possibility.

“Wouldn’t it be lovely if Canada was the 28th state of the European Union rather than the 51st state of the United States?”

It was said partly in jest.

But the idea behind it is becoming increasingly serious.

CANADA LOOKS EAST

For generations, Canada's economy has been overwhelmingly tied to its southern neighbour.

Around two-thirds of Canadian exports cross the US border.

Now Carney wants to start changing that.

Canada and Europe are examining closer cooperation in energy, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, defence, technology and scientific research.

There are even discussions about easier movement for Canadians to live and work in Europe.

Canada could also supply more energy to European countries, while the two sides explore new data centres, undersea cables, satellite networks and research partnerships.

This isn't simply another trade deal.

Carney is looking at rewiring Canada's economic connections.

THE TRUMP EFFECT

The irony is hard to miss.

America and Canada have been among the closest economic and political partners in the world for generations.

Trump's trade war and repeated pressure on Canada have changed the atmosphere dramatically.

Carney's answer appears to be: if America wants to make Canada less dependent on the United States, Canada will start building alternatives.

The US remains by far Canada's biggest trading partner and Europe cannot simply replace the American market.

But Carney isn't trying to replace America overnight.

He is trying to make sure Canada has somewhere else to go.

EUROPE HAS ITS DOUBTS

Europe isn't simply throwing open the doors.

EU governments are wary of creating a special arrangement for Canada that other countries might demand for themselves.

The bloc is also still dealing with the consequences of Brexit and doesn't want to create a halfway-house version of membership that encourages others to seek the same deal.

There are practical problems too.

Closer access to the EU means dealing with European regulations, possible financial contributions and difficult questions about sovereignty.

And replacing the enormous volume of Canadian-American trade would be an immense challenge.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

Yet European officials increasingly see Canada as something more than another trading partner.

They see a wealthy, resource-rich democracy with enormous energy and mineral potential — and a country looking for reliable partners at a time when confidence in America's direction has weakened.

Carney is particularly well placed to make the pitch.

He studied in Europe, met his wife in Britain and spent seven years running the Bank of England.

Now he is attempting something that would have seemed almost unthinkable only a few years ago:

turning Canada towards Europe while reducing its dependence on America.

The plan could fail.

The economics won't be easy and Canadians may ultimately resist giving Europe too much influence.

But the political message is already clear.

Trump may be trying to pull Canada closer to America — and accidentally pushing it towards Europe instead.

SOURCE

The look in Carney's eyes speaks a thousand words about how assesses Trump's attitude and intelligence, and right so.