Kemi puts Tories on election alert as Burnham weighs his gamble

DECEMBER ELECTION?

Kemi Badenoch has put the Conservatives on general election alert, warning that Andy Burnham could gamble on taking the country to the polls as early as December.

The Tory leader told LBC: “I think it’s this December,” describing the Prime Minister as “a gambler” who might fancy his chances of securing his own mandate.

THE NUMBERS GAME

The warning comes as two major constituency polls paint a complicated picture of what an early election could produce — with Labour emerging as the biggest party while the Conservatives and Reform remain split.

A YouGov projection put Labour on 241 seats, the Conservatives on 130 and Reform on 123, with the Lib Dems on 71 and the Greens on nine.

A separate Survation poll put Labour on 272 seats, Reform on 153 and the Conservatives on 85.

TACTICAL VOTING TWIST

The Survation modelling also examined what could happen if voters tactically backed candidates most likely to defeat Reform.

Under that scenario, Reform could fall to 62 seats while Labour would rise to 319 — just six short of an overall majority — with the Conservatives becoming the official opposition on 130.

THE REFORM PROBLEM

Those figures have revived calls from senior Conservatives for some form of electoral accommodation with Reform.

Former Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg said the two parties should consider standing down candidates where the other was best placed to defeat Labour.

“If there were an election now, the Conservatives and Reform would be well advised to sort something out,” he said.

KEMI SAYS NO

But Badenoch is having none of it.

She told GB News that her mission was “about uniting the country, not just uniting the Right”, rejecting the idea that Conservative and Reform voters could simply be added together.

She also pointed to continuing controversy surrounding Reform, saying she did not want the Conservatives joining forces with a party containing people who had previously left the Tory party.

FARAGE'S ENDGAME

Nigel Farage has repeatedly ruled out an electoral pact, maintaining that Reform's objective is to replace the Conservatives as the main force on the Right.

That leaves the two parties facing a familiar problem: both are competing for broadly similar territory while insisting they have no intention of joining forces.

BURNHAM'S GAMBLE

Meanwhile, speculation about Burnham calling an early election is growing in Westminster, despite his denials that he is seeking a personal mandate.

The Prime Minister could theoretically wait until 2029, but the worsening economic outlook is adding to speculation that he could decide to take his chances earlier.

Some Labour advisers are reportedly pushing for an early election, arguing that weaker Reform support and divisions on the Right could give Burnham his best opportunity of securing a majority.

Others inside government remain unconvinced, with one source saying most people still regard an early election as “way too risky”.

THE BIG QUESTION

So the immediate question is not simply whether Britain will vote in December.

It is whether Burnham believes the Conservatives and Reform will still be fighting each other when the moment comes — and whether Badenoch is prepared to let them.

AN Original

Are you a man or a mouse Burnham ?

Labour were screaming for a GE when the Tories changed Leader.

Especially the ginger monger.

Liebour might form a coalition with the Lib Dems. My god that doesn't bear think about. Davey as deputy PM.