Posting this as a composite of my own thoughts (without AI) informed by some videos whcih touched on the subject of pension funding including Bill Gates.

This isn't about general AI concerns such as bioterrorism, cyberterrorism, and potential extinction.

Current projections is that AI will within a decade or two become BILLIONS of times more intelligent than any human.

People who say this is just like the changes from the internet just don't know enough yer.

The narrow focus here is about old age pensions for retired expats in lower cost countries like Thailand.

Some basic assumptions --

Like or not the AI revolution is arriving quickly

In the first world the predicted massive job loss in the cognitive sector will happen in the next 5 years

Cognitive jobs include many high paying jobs.

Pension systems are already struggling to stay solvent in many countries.

They depend on TAXATION of working people.

Cut working people even 50 percent and it will probably be much higher cuts off that funding.

Politicians will be dealing with that shock change.

Politicians and policy changes are notoriously slow.

So various sorts of crises are probable.

Solution? Tax the "labor" output of AI to replace taxing human labor.

Solution to massive job loss? Universal basic income.

In the meantime, people will still try to live decent lives.

Possible solution?

More retirees than now should move to middle and lower income countries.

The geo arbitrage is still there just as it is now, but potentially magnified by slower adoption of AI in the labor maket in middle and ow income countries.

Edited 7 hours ago7 hr by Jingthing

This isn't about general AI concerns such as bioterrorism, cyberterrorism, and potential extinction.

Extinction of what ?

stupid people ?

Fear of AI is the fear of it revealing energy sources that may be free or uncontrolled by the current powers that be who profit and start wars for the control of it.

Try and and stay healthy for the next 10 years and you'll see it

2 hours ago, PhilipHabib said:

Extinction of what ?

stupid people ?

Fear of AI is the fear of it revealing energy sources that may be free or uncontrolled by the current powers that be who profit and start wars for the control of it.

Try and and stay healthy for the next 10 years and you'll see it

Some responses.

This topic is not about extinction risk (of humanity).

With a basically alien intelligence out of human control BILLIONS of times smarter than any human, we're all total moron at best.

What you and Musk are talking about is about the more utopian possible outcomes in 10 or 20 year.

There is of course a wide range of possible outcomes.

I'm not talking in 10 or 20 years.

i'm talking about older people now for the next 10 years or so.

The transition phase to whatever is going to happen is going to very rough going.

The assertion here is that it will probably be less rough in countries at the level of Thailand for the predictably very rough transition phase.

Edited 4 hours ago4 hr by Jingthing

No AI company has come close to making a profit.

While Open AI and free to use Chinese AI are eating into the AI market.

The biggest threat to pensioners in the short/medium term is the grift put in place by the Trump administration to give Musk direct access to investor’s 401Ks.

When the bubble bursts he’ll take profits and pensioners/401K holders will pay the price.

Edited 59 minutes ago59 min by Chomper Higgot

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

i'm talking about older people now for the next 10 years or so.

I've seen one silicon valley guy predicting 50 million job losses in the US by 2028.

This could be way off ... so add 5 years at most?

We really don't know.

But based on comments by Elon Musk, it appears that the entire concept of "retirement" may vanish completely.

In other words, the job losses may become so massive at some point that the govts may be forced to hand out monthly checks to everyone for basic survival like they did during Covid as millions of people won't be able to find work. And to avoid revolts. If unemployment gets too high and there is no safety net, this will lead to revolts and chaos.

So the only issue is when? The 2028 prediction may not be reliable. We don't know.

No, there is another issue. What happens to retirees and their pensions? Maybe nothing changes for retirees. You've already earned your pension and maybe it will remain untouched. Why did you start this thread? Do you think pensions will be affected?

It seems the AI upheaval may be more relevant for working age folks, not retirees.