Thailand Facing Population Crisis

[Prakanong]

To create a larger workforce , why not just give us farangs

who never want to leave just an automatic work permit

stated all work allowed ?

Maybe not a very educated post from me , sorry for that ,

but it can help does'nt it .

You going to work for local rates?

I hope the Lao, Burmese, Chinese and everybody gets in too - that should keep labour costs in check.

[alexth]

I might be off topic, but I'm not planning to live for more than 60 years

[John K]

I am having a hard time with some of this. Population shifts and demographics are simply part of nature. As humans we tend to forget we are part of nature too. We respond to changes in our environment st same as every other living thing on the planet.

Right now humans are experiencing a population explosion and we are having negative effects on the planet. Global warming is partly related to the growing human population.

At some point in the future, perhaps not too far in the future nature will kick in and start to reduce the human population. Global warming will cause both water and food shortages. Water from melting glaciers will stop when the glaciers are gone, and areas that we grow food in will become less usable producing smaller crops. I would not doubt that some people living today will see the beginning of this.

[TAWP]

Counting in the foodsurplus we experience in Europe, that could feed a lot of starving people in Africa, I wouldn't oversimplify and say the world cannot sustain people as it is.

It's not a problem currently, based on real numbers. People suffering is due to wars, local famine and dislocated wealth. Not the absence of resources on a global scale.

[Prakanong]

Counting in the foodsurplus we experience in Europe, that could feed a lot of starving people in Africa, I wouldn't oversimplify and say the world cannot sustain people as it is.

It's not a problem currently, based on real numbers. People suffering is due to wars, local famine and dislocated wealth. Not the absence of resources on a global scale.

Yes its a distribution and logistics problem not a supply problem.

[ballzafire]

Time to loosen up on those visa restrictions.......

[KhunFon]

I can now see the possibility of medical advances allowing me to live until 100.

I'm afraid living is not being almost alive.... What's the use to keep people alive if and when nature told that time is over?

Edited October 28, 2007 by KhunFon

[kangeroo]

If you take the title of this thread, and replace the middle two letters in 'Facing' with the letters 'ra', you get a different meaning.

Yes well if my auntie had balls she would be my uncle .

[PeaceBlondie]

We discussed a lot of this recently on the thread started by Rainman, who didn't want to make one baby. A news article from some demographer (from the Economist?) stated that the world's population will peak during this century, at somewhere less than ten billion. We may end up back at 5 billion.

I've suspected for years that Thailand reached negative population growth, and this is the first time I've seen the newspapers quoting a Thai expert on the problem.

One advantage of lower population would be that the schools could have much smaller classes, if they would just stop retiring the teachers at 60 and earlier. But Thailand prefers to have incredibly inadequate public education, so there's no hope there.

[Sanpatong]

It is indeed very much a crisis. I commented on this before. Unless URGENT action is taken, things are looking bleak; this is the potential mia-noi-pool we're talking about for when I'm middle aged!!!!

[Screws]

earth can sustain 20 bln population - the matter how the wealth and resources are divided

The planet is grossly overpopulated now. Otherwise 'global warming' would still just be an academic theory, promoted to improve the Scandanavian climate.

It is high time the catholic church were made to appreciate that all species must be able to reproduce at considerably above replacement value to account for natural disasters, droughts etc.

Its assets should be made available to those who suffer the consequences of its teachings.

[simon43]

If Thailand is in need of more babies, then I will be totally unselfish and offer my body for these future mothers to practice on

Simon

[toret]

It's generally accepted etc etc...

Bloody marvellous, you just saved my day. Best posting I seen in a very long time.

Remind me to buy you a Gin & Tonic if we ever meet.

TT

[Mid]

I believe that declining birth rates are in essence a non confidence decision. People enslaved in the nightmare of industrialised urban society are concluding that it is not a way of life that should be imposed upon future denerations.

you've made some posts that shouldn't have seen the light of day , IMHO

but ,

gotta agree that there's a distinct possibility that this one has merit .

[lannarebirth]

If you take a look at the following, one can see that Europe & The Far East are the areas in the world having the highest population density...

Thailand is #61 with 125 people/sq/km

Around 1900, when our grandparents lived, the world had just a mere 1.6 Billion people. Some hundred years later we're facing a population of 6,6 to 6,7 Billion people.

The forecast for 2050 is 9,4 Billion people.

And, in the meantime, Mother Earth didn't grow...

<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...ulation_density" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...ulation_density</a>

World Population:

<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_populat...have_ever_lived" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_populat...have_ever_lived</a>

Scary !

LaoPo

The good news is, that just 5 years ago researchers were saying that population would peak out in 2055 at 11.5 million. It looks like those numbers are coming down pretty fast. The number one correlation to out of control population growth is abject poverty. Stabdards of living are improving all over the earth and birth rates are either declining, or where there is growth, that growth is slowing.

edit: Also, I believe sperm counts are dropping in many places. It wouldn't surprise if the headlines in 50 years wonder if the human race will vanish.

Edited October 28, 2007 by lannarebirth

[tropo]

1.63 children per family is low.

I understand 2.4 is the value needed to keep a stable population,

mind you that may have changed with people living longer.

This is an area of concern, not just for Thailand, but all nations.

On a personal level, my parents lived to be 80,

I can now see the possibility of medical advances allowing me to live until 100.

Forunately?, only a very small percentage of the world's population will be able to afford these "medical advances".

[johnbd]

Although bad for the country, for the reasons mentioned. Is it good for the planet? If this happened in all countries, would it have a positive effect? I'm guessing so but i really don't know

[iminthailand]

I'd assume whether 2.1 kids or 2.4 kids is needed for stable population has a lot to do with the death rate of children/young adults before they can have kids.

[astral]

HIV/AIDS may also be altering the previously accepted patterns for population maintenance.

[LaoPo]

HIV/AIDS may also be altering the previously accepted patterns for population maintenance.

Yes, as the #'s from this post show....

HIV/AIDS - people living with HIV/AIDS:

570,000 (2003 est.)

HIV/AIDS - deaths:

58,000 (2003 est.)

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...t&p=1615427

LaoPo

[brahmburgers]

Pardon the redundancy, but this finite planet is far beyond its carrying capacity. People packed like sardines in places like HK. I have personal friends living in a tiny shack over an open cess pool in downtown Chiang Mai. Population projections say we'll have up to 3 times as many people in the near future. Imagine every place you go, every road you drive upon, there are 3 times the number of people. ....and less land mass, as coastlines recede. People living in the driest coldest deserts and on flimsy houseboats or in flood plains, on the slopes of active volcanos, in fetid swamps, or on piles of garbage.

Evolutionary history has many instances of overpopulations, and in every case, some catastrophe befell the organisms. One of the first were giant algae blooms at a time when there were no organism to process the oxygen they emitted. They were immensely successful up until the time the oxygen poisoned them, or there were worldwide oxygen fires that fried them. In recent times, there's the brief history of Easter Island - which shows a microcosm of what happens when people overpopulate a finite space. It's not a pretty picture.

Currently there are pathogens, wars, pollution (and drunk drivers at Songkran) that are having various effects on keeping human populations from getting too out of hand too quickly - and the prognosis is such things will only intensify.

There is no magic wand solution, but a good start would be free vascetomies for any men over 25 who want one, and free sterilizations for any women over 25, no questions asked, except 'have you thought seriously about this and is this what you really want?" and "is anyone pressuring you to do this?" And send the Pope to go live for a week with his flock on a garbage heap in Manila - maybe that will open his eyes to the absurdity of banning condoms, birth control and abortions.

[TAWP]

If you really think the planet is far beyond it's capacity just because there is people packed as sardines in a few cities, I suggest you go out and travel some more in the world.

Is it ok to hope you would take up on the offer if the service was given for free?

[John K]

If you really think the planet is far beyond it's capacity just because there is people packed as sardines in a few cities, I suggest you go out and travel some more in the world.

Is it ok to hope you would take up on the offer if the service was given for free?

I take it you have never been to China. One of the most enduring memories I had of China was the huge population. When I went to stores virtually every rack of clothes had it’s own sales clerk, where is compared to the USA you need to wander around looking for a sales clerk. Negotiating your way down a side walk was a headache. I actually needed to wait just to step into the flow of people. No wonder China has their population control polices. ShenZen a city about the size of Bangkok has a population of 25,000,000 as compared to Bangkok 7,500,000. If you think Bangkok traffic is bad, triple the population and look again. On a bus trip I noticed nearly every free meter of land was devoted to some form of food production from fish farms to rice, to whatever.

I have also been in very rural places in the USA and other than the cows you are the only person.

Nature has it’s way of bringing things back in balance. Global warming will trigger natures correction, of that I have no doubt. When nature gets around to doing it’s thing it wont be pleasant.

[Scott]

Overall, one of the best methods of controlling population is by raising the standard of living. As the living standards increase, the birth rate generally decreases. Children are better cared for, better fed and better educated.

Poor people have large families as a type of insurance policy. I hate to say it, but it's similar to cats and dogs having a large litter, in which only a few may survive.

[PeaceBlondie]

I don't think the earth's total population will ever exceed 8 billion, but the basic fabric of the environment (sea levels, air and water quality, desertification, etc) is far more likely to reach the tipping point in the next 10 or 20 years, making civilized Western countries uninhabitable. In other words, the 7 billion who have already lived on this planet have done enough damage to the earth to ruin it without having one more baby.

It's unlikely that Thailand will ever exceed 75 million. It's even less likely that Thailand will suddenly welcome massive immigration from its neighboring countries or by farang. I hate to imagine how many grandparents (farang and Thai) will slip into Alzheimers or become incontinent, alone, in Isaan.

[John K]

Overall, one of the best methods of controlling population is by raising the standard of living. As the living standards increase, the birth rate generally decreases. Children are better cared for, better fed and better educated.

Poor people have large families as a type of insurance policy. I hate to say it, but it's similar to cats and dogs having a large litter, in which only a few may survive.

The most common way nature controls out of control populations is with food. When the amount of food can no longer support the population starvation and death occurs on the wholesale level. Human intervention to control the population is slower turning than the Titanic. One of the global warming predictions is the areas that now produce food will become unusable. The writing is on the wall, and I feel Asia as a whole will be the hardest hit but that is just my opinion on Asia.

[Prakanong]

Overall, one of the best methods of controlling population is by raising the standard of living. As the living standards increase, the birth rate generally decreases. Children are better cared for, better fed and better educated.

Poor people have large families as a type of insurance policy. I hate to say it, but it's similar to cats and dogs having a large litter, in which only a few may survive.

The most common way nature controls out of control populations is with food. When the amount of food can no longer support the population starvation and death occurs on the wholesale level. Human intervention to control the population is slower turning than the Titanic. One of the global warming predictions is the areas that now produce food will become unusable. The writing is on the wall, and I feel Asia as a whole will be the hardest hit but that is just my opinion on Asia.

I suppose Malthus had his time in the limelight with his theories about war famine and pestilence and lunatic right wing Chriatians pray for it today.

Instead of "Feeling" that Asia will take the brunt of global warming why not look at some of the models on it - research based on science instead of feeling is wonderfullu enlightening. It might well be Asia but just feeling it is not enough in most circles.

[John K]

Overall, one of the best methods of controlling population is by raising the standard of living. As the living standards increase, the birth rate generally decreases. Children are better cared for, better fed and better educated.

Poor people have large families as a type of insurance policy. I hate to say it, but it's similar to cats and dogs having a large litter, in which only a few may survive.

The most common way nature controls out of control populations is with food. When the amount of food can no longer support the population starvation and death occurs on the wholesale level. Human intervention to control the population is slower turning than the Titanic. One of the global warming predictions is the areas that now produce food will become unusable. The writing is on the wall, and I feel Asia as a whole will be the hardest hit but that is just my opinion on Asia.

I suppose Malthus had his time in the limelight with his theories about war famine and pestilence and lunatic right wing Chriatians pray for it today.

Instead of "Feeling" that Asia will take the brunt of global warming why not look at some of the models on it - research based on science instead of feeling is wonderfullu enlightening. It might well be Asia but just feeling it is not enough in most circles.

Yes you are correct, I was just expressing an unscientific gut feeling based on the fact Asia is not as advanced as the west and the bulk of the world population is in Asia. It was just a numbers thing. 5% of a billion is more than 5% of a million.

As for the first part of your post I imagine that is your gut feeling to as you seem to make reference to religion and war. This is much more basic.

[John K]

Let me clarify my above post #56. I am not talking about local food shortage, at the moment we have the ability to deal with that. I am talking about the entire planet and that tipping point.

[Prakanong]

Let me clarify my above post #56. I am not talking about local food shortage, at the moment we have the ability to deal with that. I am talking about the entire planet and that tipping point.

On many of the models i have looked at briefly (I have to admit its not an area that I look at much) Asia will of course be badly hit due to both geography (Bangladesh and other parts of East Asia) and the fact poorer economies are at more risk.

As for it being the worst hit though I really do not know - I have seen a couple of references to Africa but maybe this is due to it being the poorest of the poor?