Where's The Us$ Heading To ?

[lannarebirth]

To the chartists: what do you make of this:

Dollar Poised for Drop to `Final' Support, Bank of America Says (from bloomberg)...

highlights:

The Dollar Index, which gauges the value of the dollar against six major currencies, including the euro and yen, may reach the "final" technical support level of 73.92

...

The 73.92 level is derived from a 30-year trend line tracking the lows of the Dollar Index, according to Sharma. 'There are few significant support levels left,' he said.

...

Full story:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206..._currency_rates

I don't know much about technical analysis, but I have a healthy respect for it, so I look forward to comments from our resident technicians. The implication seems to be a freefall if we go through this level ? Also, as I recall 80 was a major support level for a long time. Does that mean it would be a resistance point in the event of a rally ?

Yes, the 78-82 area will be resistance, but really there's so much overhead, almost every level will provide resistance. IMO, the only thing that could make the $USD "rally hard" as opposed to a correction in a downtrend is some "event". An "event" could also cause it to plunge, so there's no point betting on that either way. More than likely it will find an interim bottom and trade sideways in a range for a few years till it looks cheap compared to another major currency. As far as T/A goes, I don't see any trendline support till about 60ish. I'm not sure if my annotated chart will show correctly without a subscription:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...&a=48805894

Here's another guys view, whose T/A is generally quite good:

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/a...rope/Page1.html

Edited November 22, 2007 by lannarebirth

[lannarebirth]

Not T/A but I would add this. This is the longest period of time I've ever seen such a one sided trade succeed. Ask your maid where the dollars headed and she'll have the same answer as everyone else. According to Market Vane a sentiment gauging service. Anti dollar sentiment is in the high 90's%. A contrarian would have been losing money for a while here though.

[LaoPo]

Not T/A but I would add this. This is the longest period of time I've ever seen such a one sided trade succeed. Ask your maid where the dollars headed and she'll have the same answer as everyone else. According to Market Vane a sentiment gauging service. Anti dollar sentiment is in the high 90's%. A contrarian would have been losing money for a while here though.

That's the -major- problem.

Foreign investors are leaving the US in large numbers, away from the Dollar.

The low $ maybe good for US exports for a certain period of time but for the long term the low $ is bad news.

For the time being the FED is 'saving' the economy by lowering the rates and probably again by Dec. 11th (or earlier.....) but I have seen very little, to none, signs the US is doing something about the sick financial system; the mortgage industry to begin with.

Home owners are demonstrating now outside Countrywide's offices and Schwarzenegger is promising the 'subprime' house owners that the state of California will help them, next year, when the mortgages are due for an interest increase.

That's not the way to cure a sick economy; that's giving people an aspirin....but the cause of the headache is still there.

Interesting times for sure.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

How about this for shock and awe:

Goldman Sachs: Indian/Chinese Institutions Could Buy American Banks

I never thought I would see this in my lifetime but emerging market financial institutions from India or China may be able to buy out American banks due to the fallout from mortgage crisis, according to the latest Goldman Sachs (GS) report. The report says:

Further, we would not be surprised to see the first acquisition of a major US broker or commercial bank by an emerging market institution. While most US brokers and some US banks have broadened their geographic presence over the past decade, none has developed a truly robust Chinese or Indian offering. With these economies growing at multiples of the US, we would not be surprised to see a larger international bank attempt to gain access to the US financial services community through acquisition.

Add to the mortgage crisis, the rapid decline in value of US dollar against these currencies and the growth rates of these economies - the scenario begins to look much more plausible. It's a matter of when and not if.

Goldman Sachs

How odd 'we' are not discussing the injection of $ 7.5 Billion into Citibank, the largest Financial in the world in need for cash....However it's not the Chinese or Indians buying into this US Giant...it's the Middle Eastern Arabs of Abu Dhabi. Together with Prince Alwaleed they now hold almost 10% of Citibank.

Apart from that the 2nd largest Chinese insurance company Ping An just bought 4.18% into Fortis Bank of Belgium/Holland for a mere € 1.81 Billion.

Next to that:

Buy Asia, Sell U.S. Is Top Trade for 2008, Goldman Sachs Says

" Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Selling the dollar against a basket of currencies from Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan is the top trade in 2008, as Asian central banks allow faster currency appreciation to offset price pressures, according to Goldman, Sachs & Co.

The Asian currencies will also gain as it becomes costlier for the central banks to enter foreign exchange markets, said Jens Nordvig, a senior currency strategist in New York at Goldman Sachs, the world's most profitable securities company.

``We are bullish on the Asian currencies,'' Nordvig said in an interview yesterday. ``The central banks need to allow faster gains for the currencies to curb inflation. With U.S. interest rates going lower, it becomes costly for them to'' sell local currencies and hold dollar assets.

The Malaysian, Singaporean and Taiwanese currencies will each gain about 5 percent to 10 percent against the dollar in the next year, according to Nordvig.

The Malaysian ringgit, which traded at 3.3795 per dollar at 6:51 p.m. New York time yesterday, has gained 4.9 percent this year against the dollar, the Singapore dollar rose 6.3 percent and the Taiwan dollar advanced 0.8 percent over the same period. The Singapore dollar traded at 1.4424 per dollar and the Taiwan currency traded at 32.338 per dollar.

The dollar has dropped to its lowest since 1971 this month against a basket of currencies, as the Fed's 0.75 percentage point rate cut since September prompted investors to seek higher returns elsewhere.

Singapore's inflation accelerated in October to 3.6 percent from a year earlier, the highest since 1991, a report showed Nov. 23. The consumer price index in Malaysia rose 1.9 percent from a year earlier, after gaining 1.8 percent in September, a separate report showed Nov. 21.

Goldman also recommended that investors sell the pound against the yen next year as U.K. growth slows, pushing the Bank of England to cut its benchmark interest rate from 5.75 percent.

The bank also advised buying a basket of Brazil's real, Russia's ruble and the Czech koruna against a basket of the U.S. dollar, the Canadian dollar and the pound.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a.o1NjPxEP80

Aaahhhh, the Basket...

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

U.A.E. Starts Certificate Auctions in Euros, Dollars

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates started auctioning certificates of deposit in euros, dollars and dirhams to create a benchmark for bond buyers to gauge their investments.

The new instruments have a maximum maturity of five years, compared with 18 months for certificates previously sold, the bank said in a statement on its Web site today.

The introduction of a euro-denominated certificate sends an ``important message'' about the composition of a currency basket to which the U.A.E. may peg the dirham in the future, said Marios Maratheftis, head of research for the Middle East at Standard Chartered Plc.

The U.A.E., along with other oil-producing Persian Gulf countries who fix their exchange rates to the U.S. dollar, has come under increasing pressure to scrap the peg to a currency that has lost 11.2 percent against the euro this year.

Central Bank Governor Sultan Bin Nasser al-Suwaidi said Nov. 15 that the U.A.E. may link the dirham to a basket of currencies, ending its 30-year-old peg to the dollar.

Continues here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=au2KxmNgHC9I

U.A.E. May Revalue Its Currency Dec. 2, Arabian Business Says

By Matthew Brown

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The United Arab Emirates may revalue its currency against the dollar as early as Dec. 2, ArabianBusiness.com reported today, citing a person close to the Central Bank of the U.A.E.

There is a plan to revalue the dirham by between 3 percent and 5 percent when the banks are closed for U.A.E. National Day on Dec. 2 or during the Eid holidays later in December, the business news Web site cited the unidentified person as saying.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=agvZ_DtR_LV8

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

This is not my work, but here is what the smartest Hurst Cycle practitioner I know has to say:

"Dollar index in the time window for the Hurst nominal 18 month nest of cycle lows (18mnth,9mnth, 20wk,10wk, etc)."

You will note that prior bounces did not amount to much and he ascribes this to the fact that longer term cycles are down and weigh heavily on shorter term cycle projections. My recollection is that this coming 18 month cycle bottom is the third 18 month cycle in the current 4.5 year cycle, so one would expect it to be severely left translated. Not much for dollar bulls to hang their hat on I'm afraid.

Uncle Buck's 80 week cycle lows seem to have been put in. A little bit more of a rally and resistance comes in. Every line on this chart is resistance:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...&a=63893762

European currencies have moved from LT overbought to ST oversold pretty quickly.

[VegasVic]

An extraordinary amount of diversification out of the dollar has already occured over the past 5 years. For sure there is still some more ahead, but IMO the lions share of this devaluation is complete. The sentiment is so bearish and the hyperbole from the pundits and govt officials has become so shrill, I'm just waiting for a picture of a burning dollar bill to show up on the cover of TIME magazine. After all, everybody knows the dollar is toast. Very soon will be time to be a contrarian. Takes balls, but that's why most people miss out on the big moves.

And the boondoggle of the Iraq war will die with the Bush presidency. Big lessons have been learned here and it will be a long, long time before another folksy Texan (aka Lyndon Johnson/Vietnam) is allowed in the oval office.

May your last 2 sentences find their way to the appropriate power.

Some on CNBC yesterday were saying it's getting time to be long dollars. Cycles, like everything else. Those shorting dollars now are late to the party. Good time to buy real estate in the US too. Buy low sell high applies to everything!

Shhh! You speak the truth but please not too loud, lets have some fun with these guys before they find out the lay of the land I always find it profoundly entertaining reading the devoute anti American hordes that populate this forum, and can only hope that they have a few coins to rub together to short the dollar(or U.S. equities) at this juncture. The fact that it is a good time to buy real estate in the U.S. is also a very astute observation on your part, I recently hung up my golf bag and came out of retirement while I was on vacation because I had a real estate deal that was too good to pass on laid in my lap. I have been hearing from these U.S. haters on thai visa for a year now that the dollar is dead, a huge wave of inflation and unemployment is coming to the U.S. and that China could crush the U.S. economically anytime it wants to. Well here we are a year later and low and behold unemployment remains very low and inflation is still nearly non existent in the U.S., on the other hand China is experiencing a very aggressive wave of inflation that is likely to continue for quite some time and many european countries are experiencing fast rising unemployment thanks to the strong Euro. The U.S. budget and trade deficeits are shrinking and with four brigades coming home from Iraq by June and a wave a fiscal conservatisim encroaching on the U.S. congress, the dollar will likely stabilize and strengthen throuout 08. As I stated earlier this summer the dollar had basically bottomed and would trade in trough area until mid 08 then in the second half of 08 and into 09 the dollar would begin to appreciate. I for one will be sad to see the weak dollar die, because it has been the proverbial gift that keeps on giving. By the way where is that fellow who has continued predicting (just last month) with certainty that the puond would be at $2.40/dollar at year end ? May everyone out there have a merry Christmass, a happy Chuanakah or a good Quanza, and may there be a peaceful aftermath to the coming elections over there no matter who wins!

[emmezeta]

Uncle Buck's 80 week cycle lows seem to have been put in. A little bit more of a rally and resistance comes in. Every line on this chart is resistance:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...&a=63893762

European currencies have moved from LT overbought to ST oversold pretty quickly.

well, last friday the Euro was down 3% in 2 days.....

I hope the bounce back of the dollar will be short or in Europe the oil+$ combination will kill us

[lannarebirth]

Uncle Buck's 80 week cycle lows seem to have been put in. A little bit more of a rally and resistance comes in. Every line on this chart is resistance:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...&a=63893762

European currencies have moved from LT overbought to ST oversold pretty quickly.

well, last friday the Euro was down 3% in 2 days.....

I hope the bounce back of the dollar will be short or in Europe the oil+$ combination will kill us

Well, a move back to 133 won't kill you. It would be healthy for the Euro. Not that I care if it's healthy.

[emmezeta]

Uncle Buck's 80 week cycle lows seem to have been put in. A little bit more of a rally and resistance comes in. Every line on this chart is resistance:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...&a=63893762

European currencies have moved from LT overbought to ST oversold pretty quickly.

well, last friday the Euro was down 3% in 2 days.....

I hope the bounce back of the dollar will be short or in Europe the oil+$ combination will kill us

Well, a move back to 133 won't kill you. It would be healthy for the Euro. Not that I care if it's healthy.

giving the fact that we are used to have a Evs$ at 1,45-1,47 going down at 1.33 yes, it won't kill me but it will hurt a lot!

and in europe the winter is colder than last year so people with mortgage already at roof level will get frozen to save money on petrol

[lannarebirth]

Anyhow, the $USD Index yesterday, hit the first of many overhead resistance levels. It also was a Fibonacci 38.3% retracement of it's most recent downmove. If it can't move to higher levels in the next week or so, it's likely toast:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...&a=63893762

[lannarebirth]

And who could blame them...

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...635288420071216

[VegasVic]

And who could blame them...

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...635288420071216

Indeed, who could blame the Germans for ditching the Euro! The strong Euro has led to higher prices and double digit unemployment numbers in Germany. The one thing that has saved the German economy is their substantial ammount of exports to Russia and the former soviet republics. The demise of the Euro might finally be in the cards, but right now it would create too much havoc so I wouldn't expect any real action in that direction until 2009. I got a chuckle out of lao's post of 11/21 where he predicted the dollar to go lower as there was a great outflow of $ by foriegn investors in the US equity market, it appears that lao po is still a great contrarian indicator as the latter half of December saw not only a rebound of the dollar (especially against the pound), but massive(record) inflows of tens of billions of dollars in foriegn soveriegn wealth funds into US equities, and the outlook is for the soveriegn wealth funds to be patriating more of their dollars into US equities well into the new year. Look for oil to touch $100/bbl soon and gold to scare $850/ounce, then the best short of 2008 will be in play (oil and gold). Look for oil to be back in the 70's by April and the 60's by the end of summer and like I said back in August, gold will be lower a year from now (then it was $670/ounce), and indeed by August 2008 gold will be sub $670/ounce. As for when the bubble in chinese equities will burst(?), I still feel it will occur before the Olympics, but I am getting closer to 50/50 on the propostion that the crash will happen before or after the Olympics. Everyone have a Happy New year and be ready to take advantage of the great short opportunity in gold and oil that is about to present itself and be nimble and quick to bail out of your Chinese investments when the bust starts in the coming year

[LaoPo]

And who could blame them...

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinanci...635288420071216

Indeed, who could blame the Germans for ditching the Euro! The strong Euro has led to higher prices and double digit unemployment numbers in Germany. The one thing that has saved the German economy is their substantial ammount of exports to Russia and the former soviet republics. The demise of the Euro might finally be in the cards, but right now it would create too much havoc so I wouldn't expect any real action in that direction until 2009. I got a chuckle out of lao's post of 11/21 where he predicted the dollar to go lower as there was a great outflow of $ by foriegn investors in the US equity market, it appears that lao po is still a great contrarian indicator as the latter half of December saw not only a rebound of the dollar (especially against the pound), but massive(record) inflows of tens of billions of dollars in foriegn soveriegn wealth funds into US equities, and the outlook is for the soveriegn wealth funds to be patriating more of their dollars into US equities well into the new year. Look for oil to touch $100/bbl soon and gold to scare $850/ounce, then the best short of 2008 will be in play (oil and gold). Look for oil to be back in the 70's by April and the 60's by the end of summer and like I said back in August, gold will be lower a year from now (then it was $670/ounce), and indeed by August 2008 gold will be sub $670/ounce. As for when the bubble in chinese equities will burst(?), I still feel it will occur before the Olympics, but I am getting closer to 50/50 on the propostion that the crash will happen before or after the Olympics. Everyone have a Happy New year and be ready to take advantage of the great short opportunity in gold and oil that is about to present itself and be nimble and quick to bail out of your Chinese investments when the bust starts in the coming year

Vegas, you really have to learn to read better....but I know that's difficult for you as there's only one person you listen to: yourself.

I didn't predict anything; I merely posted financial news, written by others which could be of interest to fellows like yourself.

But.....I 'felt' that Countrywide CFC would likely drop below the $ 10 line; remember ? (That was long before you made some bucks and bought/sold round $ 16/20.)

But I wouldn't call that a prediction either but just feeling my 'water' and I was correct.

What disturbs me with your writing is that you blast a lot of figures about oil, gold and quotes but you really don't know what the heck you're talking about like "double digit unemployment numbers in Germany" which is simply rubbish and not true and/or correct.

Germany has some 3.4 Million unemployed workers as per end October and that figure is the lowest since 1994. It's 8.2% and that's still too high but certainly not 'double digits' like you write. In some parts of former Eastern Germany there are double digits here and there but not in the country as a whole. It would be the same as comparing high unemployment numbers (like Detroit) in certain US areas with for instance NY or Dallas.

If you would know just a little about the EU politics and economy you wouldn't write such rubbish.

I suggest you stick to your own country to comment but if you really wish to discuss serious foreign economy matters, I suggest you study the real facts first.

I'm convinced you know a lot more about golf than I do, but I wouldn't talk about subjects I don't know sh_t about....

LaoPo

[ray23]

Watching these topics is really very interesting, just yesterday I read a article by an " expert" that predicted the dollar falling by 20% next year. On the same day another "expert" predicted the fall is over and it will appreciate next year.

As a novice looking in, sort of makes yuo wonder if anyone really knows

[sonicdragon]

Watching these topics is really very interesting, just yesterday I read a article by an " expert" that predicted the dollar falling by 20% next year. On the same day another "expert" predicted the fall is over and it will appreciate next year.

As a novice looking in, sort of makes yuo wonder if anyone really knows

Of course no one "really" knows. It's all just different people's opinions.

FWIW I expect that the dollar will fall against asian currencies (in particular CNY, but also others including SGD and THB and possibly JPY) due to local inflationary pressures in asia and the ever widening trade surpluses with the USA - this will take a lot of pressure off the EUR and GBP and could lead to the USD gaining against those currencies somewhat.

[PeaceBlondie]

The question is, where's the US$ headed? Since we've been asking that question for many months, I went back to my bank records. September 1, 34.22 baht to the dollar. December 11, 33.64 baht/$. That was the range, only 1.7% in four months, and it's now back up to 33.72 baht/$, a rebound of 0.34%. I couldn't eat a Fibonacci if you served it with fish sauce, but that's not much movement in four months.

[maxcrc]

I dont know why many of you are so worried about the decline in the value of the $ , while in reality if you go back to history , you can find that back in 1995 the value of $ was equivalent to todays value , and let me remind you that in the year 2000 , the EURO hit an all time low of 0.82 per 1$ , after it hit 1.46 in the year 1995 .

0.82 was not at all time low.

All time low of the syntetic euro (previously ECU) was 0.64 ECU for 1 $.

In 1992 (not 1992) all time high was exactly 1.456.

US $ it is near its bottom and soon will start to recover.

It is one of the many economical cycles happened in the past decades.

US $ devaluation was PLANNED and EXECUTED by US GOVT .... forget about the market guys....everything you read is just what they want you to believe.... war, debt and devaluation had been predicted since 2001.

UK pound is already descending ....interestst benchmark in UK will be furtherly cut and forget about pound at 2.2...

euro will start to descend soon too ...

about american budget debt....many european countries have HUGER budget debt than USA

about current account debt...it is already shrinking and again many european countries have HUGER current account debts than USA.

Combined debt is still alarming, but the same situation had happened in the past...even during Reagan administration...

guys, don t get panicked... everything has been planned....

European Union has already the house-loan problem just like in the USA (see Spain and Italy for example with thousands people insovent),no growth, and still quite high inflation, eastern european countries falling GDP in 2008 (Baltics,...).

China is the big winner....yuan is SO cheap compared to Europe and europen debt with China is soaring alarmingly too.

All planned.

Edited December 28, 2007 by maxcrc

[Naam]

"All time low of the syntetic euro (previously ECU) was 0.64 ECU for 1 $.

In 1992 (not 1992) all time high was exactly 1.456"

you don't mean of course the all time low but the all time HIGH of the ECU/€UR vs. USD which was neither in 1992 nor in 1995 but on monday 26th april,1993 @ 0.80286 (NY close)

[Naam]

guys, don t get panicked... everything has been planned.... All planned.

good to know! i was already worried sh*tless and thought i might have to divorce my wife to cut down expenses. but from today on i will sleep much better and it looks as if i can keep my wife... although isn't a mia noi's upkeep much cheaper even considering expensive health care for sick buffaloes?

[maxcrc]

"All time low of the syntetic euro (previously ECU) was 0.64 ECU for 1 $.

In 1992 (not 1992) all time high was exactly 1.456"

you don't mean of course the all time low but the all time HIGH of the ECU/€UR vs. USD which was neither in 1992 nor in 1995 but on monday 26th april,1993 @ 0.80286 (NY close)

you didn t understand. these are two separated sentences separated by a point.

I mean all time high of the ecu/euro against the dollar, as I said. it was 1.456 US$ for 1 synthetic euro, before being beaten last November to 1.497.

The correct definition indeed is not exactly 1 ecu=1 euro, coz the basket of currencies used was slightly different.

The comparaision is with the so-called synthetic euro which value I calculated.

All time low means all time low of the synthetic euro against the us $ was 0.64 $ for 1 synthetic euro which means all times high of the us$.

These are the two absolute peaks. $0.64-$1.497

Edited December 28, 2007 by maxcrc

[Naam]

I couldn't eat a Fibonacci if you served it with fish sauce, but that's not much movement in four months.

preparing a Fibonacci the correct way is an art PBlondie. it starts with the selection of the most tender part of the animal. then the Fibonacci has to be cut carefully (lengthwise of the fibres NO CROSSCUT allowed!) and marinated for 48 hours in prikh nam pla at a constant temperature of 29.5ºC (85.1ºF) . after carefully drying the surplus nam pla your wife, boyfriend, mia noi. ladyboy, ewe, goat [insert applicable partner] has to sit (bare butted) on it and hatch the Fibonacci for a minimum of 4 (four) hours without moving and not even winking an eye. after successful hatching the Fibonacci is grilled (charcoal only, NO GAS!) for 95 seconds on one side and for 85.5 seconds on the other side. serve with baked potato and a small helping of (not too fat) sour cream. suggested wine is a 30year old not to dry Port.

[Naam]

you didn t understand.

most probably i will understand once you post in a language i am able understand. i apologise for my lack of understanding foreign languages. please forgive me.

[maxcrc]

you didn t understand.

most probably i will understand once you post in a language i am able understand. i apologise for my lack of understanding foreign languages. please forgive me.

what it is very clear is your arrogance

I have just written BOTH the highest value in one line and the LOWEST in the next line well separated by a point.

Maybe you should go and look for a shop selling brains.

Edited December 28, 2007 by maxcrc

[Naam]

you didn t understand.

most probably i will understand once you post in a language i am able understand. i apologise for my lack of understanding foreign languages. please forgive me.

what it is very clear is your arrogance I have just written BOTH the highest value in one line and the LOWEST in the next line well separated by a point. Maybe you should go and look for a shop selling brains.

does that mean you don't forgive my shortcomings?

[maxcrc]

you didn t understand.

most probably i will understand once you post in a language i am able understand. i apologise for my lack of understanding foreign languages. please forgive me.

what it is very clear is your arrogance I have just written BOTH the highest value in one line and the LOWEST in the next line well separated by a point. Maybe you should go and look for a shop selling brains.

does that mean you don't forgive my shortcomings?

ok i will ,if you sell to me your US$ in spring next year.

I am almost ready to get rid (which means capitalizing the profit) of my euros.

If the euro rise even further you will gain. Deal ?

[Naam]

what it is very clear is your arrogance

i agree. but my arrogance is no match for your ignorance the absolute low (deriving the relevant value based on DEM) was traded on tuesday, march 5th, 1985 at a rate of USD 0.56987018 for one a fictive €UR/ECU.

calculation (base NY close) : DEM/USD = 29.137 / DEM/f_€UR = 1.95583 (in Europe USD was even stronger).

next "all planned" please

[Naam]

ok i will ,if you sell to me your US$ in spring next year. I am almost ready to get rid (which means capitalizing the profit) of my euros

presently i am neither buying nor selling USD. i was inclined to buy forward a few days ago (@1.44) but then hesitated as i have no idea what will happen in future. after i'm not an expert or @n@lyst turned out it was the right decision, at least for the time being.

by the way, for several years i was happily selling forward USD to hedge my USD exposure. of course i made a nice profit on top of the hedging. on the other hand i admit that i missed two full years of hedging because i never thought the €UR might cross 1:1. but sh*t happens and those who claim that they never made wrong decisions in investing have no real money to invest.

all in my [not so] humble opinion

[maxcrc]

what it is very clear is your arrogance

i agree. but my arrogance is no match for your ignorance the absolute low (deriving the relevant value based on DEM) was traded on tuesday, march 5th, 1985 at a rate of USD 0.56987018 for one a fictive €UR/ECU.

calculation (base NY close) : DEM/USD = 29.137 / DEM/f_€UR = 1.95583 (in Europe USD was even stronger).

next "all planned" please

again, it depends on how you calculate the synthetic euro. That's why many economists give different values.

Since the basket of currencies of today's euro and ex-ECU is different and since some today's currencies may or may not be included in the synthetic euro calculation, the value may differ.

The basket may differ coz some economists don't include some currencies in the calculation of the synthetic euro like the italian lira or the spanish peseta or the portuguese escudo because at that time in 1985 they were affected by higher devaluation than the average european currencies.

Others include these currencies because they look at the current countries which adopted the euro.

Others refers to deutch mark only.

sorry for my bad english ...

anyway, I suggest to avoid "fighting" for few cents and focus on the question regarding the trend of US $.

In my humble opinion, it will be about to recover against euro in a matter of months and it has already reached its lowest peak of this cycle against the pound.

I would suggest anybody to sell their pounds right now. The UK benchmark will probably be cut furtherly next year.

Anybody is free to disagree with me.

Regarding asian currencies, it is more complicated: some currencies may still appreciate against the $ for part of 2008, I think yuan will appreciate until after the Olympic Games near 7.00 yuans for 1 $, after that it will stablyze ot start to lose something.

Regarding middle east and other currencies: it is OBVIOUS that the few currencies which have been pegged to the US $ all these years are now undervalued and would tend to appreciate if exchange rate is freed, but this is a direct consecuence of the forced pegging to a falling currency,

That DOESN T mean the $ is going to fall further globally.

anyway today very bad day for the buck... it has just crossed $1.47 for 1 euro... they say for what happened in Pakistan, but all the reasons they give are just excuses created by speculators.... financial world is not transparent at all.

Edited December 28, 2007 by maxcrc

[Naam]

anyway today very bad day for the buck... it has just crossed $1.47 for 1 euro... they say for what happened in Pakistan, but all the reasons they give are just excuses created by speculators.... financial world is not transparent at all.

i agree, but we should not forget that the last several trading days are not representative because of the holidays. and the same applies to the first days of next week. i think a clearer picture will emerge earliest by middle of january. personally i try hard refraining from make any specific forecast and i too was under the impression that the dollar has seen its lows. but even with rather thin holiday trading the dollar's weakness is puzzling for me. and that weakness started BEFORE Benazir Bhutto was murdered.