The Coup? Has It Affected You? If So How-explain

[Manchester]

There are undoubtedly certain pockets and industries where the coup hasn't had much effect. This will be the case with a country the size of Thailand and with it's substantial manufacturing base.

Its " substantial manufacturing base " is pretty much foreign owned. Toyota etc

Although GDP growth has been predictably lower this year, if elections go forward it's reasonable to assume things will be back to some kind of reduced normalcy.

Its reasonable to assume there may be a coalition government and nothing will go forward

Failing that, and in the event of another coup, I would venture that things will go to hel_l in a handbasket pretty quickly.

Probably. Already reported by the World Bank that Thailand has the slowest growth in SE Asia

In any event, those of us who've diversified our existences and not tethered our lives to Thailand come rain or storm should weather through ok. For those who've staked their futures only on Thailand I wouldn't be so sure....

Agreed

[keemapoot]

Well, that's a big gulp. I agree with much of it. Foreign manufacturing base, yes, but it's stuck with it. This will continue.

Thailand has the slowest growth of any country in SE Asia in its development cycle. We can all agree on that.

I'm sorry to see my adopted home go into this morass.

Edited November 16, 2007 by keemapoot

[xyborg]

<br />Certainly hasnt affected me in the slightest. The much-maligned tightening visa requirements are a good thing in my opinion and, as Naam pointed out, were Thaksin's policies and nothing to do with the coup. <br /><br />If anything, the business I'm in has picked up incredibly in the last twelve months. Year on year our revenues were up 37% so the notion of business grinding to a halt or quality FDI declining may have happened, but it hasnt impacted us at all. And that's translated into bigger bonuses too ;-)<br /><br /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

Im tending to agree with "Bendy" here, although worry more about a world decline.

I had just bought another condo to rent out a week or so before the coup and wondered if it would affect the rental market......... 12 months on I'm just about to buy another th market is still pretty good as far as "we" are concerned.

I'm still in the UK and called my wife to tell her there was a coup....... she lives in Bangkok and new nothing, thought I was nuts for calling her so late and "not worry anything dear"

[sriracha john]

Yes, it is the typical nonsense you constantly see on Thai Visa.

TonyLeung

Joined: 2007-11-02

well, for at least the last 14 days, huh?

[Naam]

Those of us with real estate to sell, even those such as myself with a condo registered in the farang 49% have certainly felt adverse effects of the coup. And this began long before the sub-prime mortgage debacle in the US. In fact it can be dated back to the coup.

i strongly disagree but can only speak for the Pattaya area. before i made up my mind mid 2005 to have a home in Thailand we checked for more than a year (starting in early 2004) property prices of homes, land and high end penthouses in prime locations. already at that time sellers were willing to forego 20 to 30% and in some cases even more of their asking price. the coup might have added but was definitely not the main reason why real estate lost value.

the real reason was and still is that owners have wet dreams what the market value of their property is!

[Naam]

If you have been affected by the coup, please explain how, maybe I'm missing something.

i used to frequent bars each and every evening. since the coup i stay at home because of all these road blocks, barbed wire, nightly shooting of innocent civilians and soldiers questioning me when i passed.

especially scary are the tanks which are stationed at every crossing.

Edited November 17, 2007 by Naam

[Naam]

It has always intrigued me why so many people put all their resources and lives into a place where they can never be anything more than a temporary resident, where their very future lies at the mercy of a poorly-paid uniformed official!

how many people do you know who "put all their resources" into Thailand? i know a bunch of people who live here since many years but not a single one of them was dumb enough to do what you insinuated.

[Flow]

As a long term expat, last years coup, has not affected my life here in the slightest. I go about my daily (day & evening) routine exactly the same as before. NOTHING HAS CHANGED FOR ME!, except I no longer run around the house muttering dam_n it!,dam_n it!, after reading the paper, as I did with the prior regime, sometimes upsetting my mate.

There is another active thread running "DARK DAYS AHEAD" where the doom & gloom brigade is having a field day.

Gave it a cursory look & laughted to myself. Seems the political, & social analysts have dusted off their crystal balls, & predicting the end of the world is at hand all based upon conjecture & what MIGHT happen in the future. Well if the can do that successfully, maybe they should get into the market & make a bundle.

If you have been affected by the coup, please explain how, maybe I'm missing something.

I know it has affected some businesses, that's for sure. But it has not affected me personally. Nor will it ever affect me or nor do I or will I ever care. I am a farang with no rights in this country. I have been a guest and I have to report my address every three months because i hold a work permit and I work here. So, do I care about who is Prime Minister or the coup? Nope.

[ShakaIsuzu]

YES the coup has affected me.

I used to be able to freely speak my mind.

Since then, that is no longer possible in certain places. You need not look further than this forum.

[Naam]

I know many foreigners that if things turn really pear shaped they will have to leave with next to nothing. Some of them have heavily invested everything they have here. Some going as far as even millions of Sterling and US$. Some didn't have anything to bring here in the first place, and some will leave with even less than they arrived with.

But of course this is Thai Visa, where no one marries bar girls and no one teaches English for 30,000THB a month so no one here falls into these categories.

could it be that these foreigners who invested millions of sterling and dollars are identical with those who bitch about 5 or 10 Baht baht bus fares?

[Naam]

YES the coup has affected me.

I used to be able to freely speak my mind.

Since then, that is no longer possible in certain places. You need not look further than this forum.

pre-coup, post-coup all the same for me. my wife never let me speak my mind freely

[ZukiSuzuki]

My personal experience with the coup and the affect it had on me has been negative i have to say.

In the months leading up to the coup i was very busy getting getting all components in my personal business plan ironed out and all the red tape cut away, all the boxes were ticked and double checked. Every thing was, according to the various government agencies that i was dealing with 'in order' and my various applications for licences etc to conduct my business here were all but accepted.

I had it on very good authority that my application was to be a success, but then the coup, there was uncertanty in the government offices, non off the officials wanted to commit themselves and suddenly, i was told that the 'rules had changed' and i was no longer able to conduct 'as a non-Thai' this type of business in Thailand.

I was told to try again after they hold elections.....GREAT, My plans have had to go on hold since then.

Sure, for the older guy on a pension, nothing will have changed, for the non-Thai small business man things have changed and not for the better.

[ShakaIsuzu]

YES the coup has affected me.

I used to be able to freely speak my mind.

Since then, that is no longer possible in certain places. You need not look further than this forum.

pre-coup, post-coup all the same for me. my wife never let me speak my mind freely

Mine does.

About a great many things that you will never read about on these pages.

[ShakaIsuzu]

I had it on very good authority that my application was to be a success, but then the coup, there was uncertanty in the government offices, non off the officials wanted to commit themselves and suddenly, i was told that the 'rules had changed' and i was no longer able to conduct 'as a non-Thai' this type of business in Thailand.

Yup... My business even got BOI approval quite easily. Thaksin really was good for business.

Sure, for the older guy on a pension, nothing will have changed, for the non-Thai small business man things have changed and not for the better.

Agreed, though for the THAI small business man (or woman) things have ALSO changed for the worse.

Just about the only people who have NOT felt serious bad effects are the sexpats & sex tourists, and even they have more visa worries than before. Long term though these groups will be BETTER off because the supply of exploited poor people is now guaranteed.

[Heng]

It has always intrigued me why so many people put all their resources and lives into a place where they can never be anything more than a temporary resident, where their very future lies at the mercy of a poorly-paid uniformed official!

how many people do you know who "put all their resources" into Thailand? i know a bunch of people who live here since many years but not a single one of them was dumb enough to do what you insinuated.

I'd say the latter far outnumber the former here. Basic 80-20. The retired well heeled retiree with resources to invest (anywhere) is simply not the 80%. I run across hundreds of all kinds of expats, and thousands of locals each year, and most don't have resources to begin with and are treading water working month to month, struggling to pay their kids tuition, food bills, and rent or mortgage. For a good number of expats, this usually means no house back home to draw rental income, no job that will one day provide a pension (teaching English or scuba, running a bar, restaurant, or construction company on leased property, etc.), NOT even filing taxes to one day hope to get social security. Basically putting all of their resources (themselves) into the LOS.

Edited November 18, 2007 by Heng

[ShakaIsuzu]

And it's an emotional investment as well when you think you can retire somewhere and build something nice for what should be the best years of your life.

People seem to gloss over the fact that they have exactly zero rights to anything in Thailand, as opposed to most other countries in the world.

[nidge]

I had it on very good authority that my application was to be a success.

Yup... My business even got BOI approval quite easily. Thaksin really was good for business.

Sure, for the older guy on a pension, nothing will have changed, for the non-Thai small business man things have changed and not for the better.

Just about the only people who have NOT felt serious bad effects are the sexpats & sex tourists,

Perhaps you should consider that putting all your eggs in one basket based on "good authority that your application was to be a success", was a mistake of yours and nothing to do with the coup.

I think if you care to re-read this thread you will realise that most people not being affected are neither sexpats or tourists and many are not retirees. I have 19 years before my pension is due and i guess the nearest gogo bar from my house is about 320km away.

It seems to be a common thought with expats that if another expat is living a different life than them it must be worse. So because you are a failed businessman then it follows that anyone else hat did not fail must be a whoremongering waste of oxygen.

I don't wear rose coloured glasses, i know many things in Thailand that suck. But i also know not to rely on other people to shape my future. That's my responsibility and your future is your responsibility.

[Andrew Hicks]

It really doesn't matter who gets elected I suppose

Indeed. And that's actually a very good summary of what the military and their employers hoped to establish / re-confirm with the coup.

Short-term the day to day effects are minimal. Perhaps some 'Farangs' actually happy about the lengthened opening times for bars. Maybe if they're really lucky the cheap and plentiful ya ba will make a return too eh! That was fun.

Long term though the military and their employers have set Thailand back over a decade, massively hit investor confidence and guaranteed that Thailand will remain a feudal country at the core, and of course the cheap playground for a lot of happy 'Farangs', instead of developing to its full potential, economically, politically and as a society.

Google 'A coup for the rich'. It's a very good read.

I feel the coup has not directly affected my life in Surin. Things go on from day to day.

What set Thailand back was not the coup but the kleptocratic government preceding the coup whose main aim seemed to be to subvert the 1997 constitiution and to gain as much unchecked power as possible.

What often happens in such circumstances is that a powerful leader wanting absolute power uses the pretext of massive disturbances in the street to declare a state of emergency and to suspend the democratic constitution indefinitely. It is then difficult to restore democracy because the dictator has got what he wanted.

If of course there was a military coup before he could take that step, then this disaster would not occur.

Military dictators however rarely manage to restore democracy as promised but this time it seems things are on track.

There are some grounds for hope but history does not give grounds for great optimism. Strangely Thailand seems to prosper despite its leaders.

[sriracha john]

Thank you for bringing this thread back to reality, nidge....

[MrSquigle]

I lost 3 million baht directly because of the coup.... but then i made 4 million baht.

So in otherwords, if the coup had not happened I would have made 7 million, but instead only made 4.....how do you say that in french besides #./@*(!x ....'say le vee' ??

Just imagine how many search parties could have been launched with that extra cash.

[xyborg]

<br />I lost 3 million baht directly because of the coup.... but then i made 4 million baht.<br /><br />So in otherwords, if the coup had not happened I would have made 7 million, but instead only made 4.....how do you say that in french besides #./@*(!x ....'say le vee' ??<br /><br />Just imagine how many search parties could have been launched with that extra cash.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Wow you mean your'e printing your own money??? hmmmmmmm........ I wouldn't choose Thai Baht!

[ZukiSuzuki]

Perhaps you should consider that putting all your eggs in one basket based on "good authority that your application was to be a success", was a mistake of yours and nothing to do with the coup.

Where anywhere in my post did i say that i had 'put all my eggs in one basket'?

I'm still working for a large corporation in Bangkok, still on a very nice ex-pat (hardship allowence), still getting paid in Japanese Yen, blah blah blah.

All i was doing is pointing out how the coup has affected my plans in Thailand.

Sorry for doing that, old timer.

[ShakaIsuzu]

What set Thailand back was not the coup but the kleptocratic government preceding the coup whose main aim seemed to be to subvert the 1997 constitution and to gain as much unchecked power as possible.

Exclamation of utter disbelief goes here

I am one of the biggest fans of the 1997's "People's Constitution". It was called People's Constitution for a reason, because it's the only one that was drafted under democratic circumstances, and democratically embraced.

<i>Thaksin tried to subvert it??</i> Give me a <expletive> break!!! One year ago, it was torn to pieces by the military / feudal elite for no reason. It was replaced by a new constitution doctored by the military, then forced down people's throats. A literal quote: "You can either vote for this constitution that you see, or you can vote against it and get one that you don't see that I hold behind my back." Does that sound democratic to anyone?

Furthermore, the new constitution is clearly MUCH MUCH worse than the People's Constitution. Did you know that half the senate is no longer elected but APPOINTED? Do you realize that amendments to this flawed constitution are only possible with a 2/3 majority in the senate? Do those two things tell you anything about the lasting grip on power this represents?

Military dictators however rarely manage to restore democracy as promised but this time it seems things are on track.

Indeed. Sadly it's not the track of real democratic advancement of Thailand as a nation. It's the track of a firm grip on power by the elite, at the expense of Thailand in general and the poor masses specifically. It's the track of 'Divide & Conquer' tactics, with mafia-clan like regional power brokers exchanging their place at the through in a disgusting display of pseudo-democracy. It's a return to the non-governance of the 1990's.

Strangely Thailand seems to prosper despite its leaders.

The rich do. The poor get shafted. But then many 'expats' don't really mind of course.. A partial consequence is that it supplies the bars with new meat after all.

Edited November 20, 2007 by Totster

[ShakaIsuzu]

Thank you.. I can add a personal note as well of how the coup affected me.

Before the coup I was proud of Thailand and they way it was developing, getting stronger as a nation both economically as well as politically. I thought I lived in a democracy, one that had shaken off the shroud of dictatorship, which I thought was finally beaten in 1992, brought about by the blood of brave people who died for Thailand's freedom in the streets around Democracy Monument.

Last year saw the return of tanks on Ratchadamnoen Klang. Furthermore, it seemed the response by many Bangkokians (flowers etc) was a slap in the face of the people who fought and died for democracy a mere 15 years ago. It made me realize that in reality, Thailand was never a democracy, perhaps only on the surface were elected governments allowed to take care of the shop as long as they remained within certain bounds.

I realize that I was wrong about Thailand strengthening as a democracy. It was all as solid as a house of cards. Just like Thailand's economic bubble burst in 1997, Thailand's democratic bubble burst in 2006.

"But haven't there been many coups in the past, isn't this business as usual"?

No.

Because it's a biological inevitability that Thailand will face the biggest national challenge since World War II at some time in the coming years. The only hope of averting *complete* chaos on a biblical scale (or Cambodian scale if you will) is the establishment of a strong elected system of government. With the setback that the coup represents, and the return to alternating regional mafia clans in power, it is a real possibility that Thailand will NOT be strong enough to face this challenge.

I could live with this if I was a 'hand to mouth' retired (s)expat.. La la la la la la live for today... However I need to raise a family, provide income, save for retirement and make sure my kids grow up in a stable society where they can prosper and be safe. I have come to the conclusion that this is now very much in doubt that Thailand can be that place.

So yes, that's a profound change in myself.. I'm not sure that Thailand actually changed because of the coup or that it always was this way but I failed to see it. Probably the latter.

[llothar]

As somebody living in the northern parts of Thailand together with a Shan Girl i can only say that the coup has a terrible effect to the majority of the 80% people living in Mae Hong Son province. Nor surprising the thai population here is as low as in Yala and surely not more then 20%.

All this nationalism and fanatism of the new government and the military rulers are bad for everyone without 100% thai blood. Even the people who have a Thai ID but are of Karen origin see a lot of racism by the 100% thai populated authorities. This together with the immediate change of the behaving of the scumbags inside the amphores just one day after the coup (remember Thaksin forced them into: "Citizens are clients and you have to serve your clients" mantra) makes the living here much worse.

If the UN ever sends some B-52 bombers to Naypyidaw to force some Generals to think more about Democracy they should also drop a few bombs over Bangkok.

[mellow1]

Thank you.. I can add a personal note as well of how the coup affected me.

Before the coup I was proud of Thailand and they way it was developing, getting stronger as a nation both economically as well as politically. I thought I lived in a democracy, one that had shaken off the shroud of dictatorship, which I thought was finally beaten in 1992, brought about by the blood of brave people who died for Thailand's freedom in the streets around Democracy Monument.

Last year saw the return of tanks on Ratchadamnoen Klang. Furthermore, it seemed the response by many Bangkokians (flowers etc) was a slap in the face of the people who fought and died for democracy a mere 15 years ago. It made me realize that in reality, Thailand was never a democracy, perhaps only on the surface were elected governments allowed to take care of the shop as long as they remained within certain bounds.

I realize that I was wrong about Thailand strengthening as a democracy. It was all as solid as a house of cards. Just like Thailand's economic bubble burst in 1997, Thailand's democratic bubble burst in 2006.

"But haven't there been many coups in the past, isn't this business as usual"?

No.

Because it's a biological inevitability that Thailand will face the biggest national challenge since World War II at some time in the coming years. The only hope of averting *complete* chaos on a biblical scale (or Cambodian scale if you will) is the establishment of a strong elected system of government. With the setback that the coup represents, and the return to alternating regional mafia clans in power, it is a real possibility that Thailand will NOT be strong enough to face this challenge.

I could live with this if I was a 'hand to mouth' retired (s)expat.. La la la la la la live for today... However I need to raise a family, provide income, save for retirement and make sure my kids grow up in a stable society where they can prosper and be safe. I have come to the conclusion that this is now very much in doubt that Thailand can be that place.

So yes, that's a profound change in myself.. I'm not sure that Thailand actually changed because of the coup or that it always was this way but I failed to see it. Probably the latter.

This "hand to mouth" retired expat is raising a family too. My wife is Thai, my son is half Thai, when we moved here the economy and society were chugging along towards a bright future for all. If worse comes to worse we will have to liquidate and move back to the US. You mention expat, does that imply that you are Thai? If so, where will you go to be a hand to mouth expat la la la live for today, with your wife and children? You mentioned, I believe in other threads that you lived in 3 other countries before, You will find that as in Thailand, Immigrating to other countries is getting much harder, not to mention expensive. I also remember that you really dislike the USA, so I hope your not going there. I think if you are Thai, you should take a stance and fight for the betterment of Thailand. Many of your observations about Thailand appear to be valid, and if you care about your country, working to better it, would be more in line with with the ideology and attitude you have portrayed in previous posts. After all even the US has managed to set up a Democracy by fighting for it, as have many other countries. If all these hand to mouth Farangs can do it, it should really be easy for you. Of course you can't do that and run away to become an expat in another country.

[pete_r]

Thank you.. I can add a personal note as well of how the coup affected me.

Before the coup I was proud of Thailand and they way it was developing, getting stronger as a nation both economically as well as politically. I thought I lived in a democracy, one that had shaken off the shroud of dictatorship, which I thought was finally beaten in 1992, brought about by the blood of brave people who died for Thailand's freedom in the streets around Democracy Monument.

Last year saw the return of tanks on Ratchadamnoen Klang. Furthermore, it seemed the response by many Bangkokians (flowers etc) was a slap in the face of the people who fought and died for democracy a mere 15 years ago. It made me realize that in reality, Thailand was never a democracy, perhaps only on the surface were elected governments allowed to take care of the shop as long as they remained within certain bounds.

I realize that I was wrong about Thailand strengthening as a democracy. It was all as solid as a house of cards. Just like Thailand's economic bubble burst in 1997, Thailand's democratic bubble burst in 2006.

"But haven't there been many coups in the past, isn't this business as usual"?

No.

Because it's a biological inevitability that Thailand will face the biggest national challenge since World War II at some time in the coming years. The only hope of averting *complete* chaos on a biblical scale (or Cambodian scale if you will) is the establishment of a strong elected system of government. With the setback that the coup represents, and the return to alternating regional mafia clans in power, it is a real possibility that Thailand will NOT be strong enough to face this challenge.

I could live with this if I was a 'hand to mouth' retired (s)expat.. La la la la la la live for today... However I need to raise a family, provide income, save for retirement and make sure my kids grow up in a stable society where they can prosper and be safe. I have come to the conclusion that this is now very much in doubt that Thailand can be that place.

So yes, that's a profound change in myself.. I'm not sure that Thailand actually changed because of the coup or that it always was this way but I failed to see it. Probably the latter.

Great post and my thoughts exactly. Before the coup, there was a sense that Thailand was getting stronger, economically and democratically. After her studies abroad 3 years ago, my wife was proud to bring back her knowledge to her country and participate to its development. Since the coup, this sense of progress is gone, replaced by the same old game the army has been playing for the past 50+ years.

Sometimes I can't help wondering if the 2006 coup is in fact the army positioning itself in preparation of the biological inevitability you mention.