Where Is The Thai Stock Market Going After Election?

[camerata]

Anyone like to speculate on the state of the SET after the election - if PPP wins, if the Democrats win? What factors are likely to give it a boost?

[jbaldwin]

Given the electoral system an outright win by either PPP or Democrats is highly unlikely. This means the there is a high chance that the shape of the next government might not be known for some time after the election day. This uncertainty could lead to weak markets for a period of time.

However, my view is the election results rarely have much long term impact on market. I beleive that global stock markets are fairly cheap at present and that the Thai market is cheap relative to global markets. I would expect the SET to be 1000-1050 at the end of next year whoever win the election (20%-25% higher than now)

[Irene]

No outright majority-winner of more than 240 seats is expected. Coalition is likely. It depends on who will lead the coalition either the Democrats or PPP.

If the end result is the Democrats, then that should be good news for the Stock Market because they are the least objectionable. Will they give a good impression of political stability? Yes, if they join in with Chart Thai (Banharn's party). Another plus is the Democrats are more friendly to foreigners and they have voiced for relaxation of FBA. They have good team members in economic world and mostly believe in globalisation.

But if it is led by PPP, then the immediate reaction to the Stock Market would be the fear of Thaksin's return and the army backlash. There would be more uncertainty under this formula. From all the known polls, PPP would be the party with most seats and morally they should be the party to form this coalition government first. If they are unable to do so, then the Democrats would have a go. Knowing of the wealth and the craftiness, I fear that PPP is likely to lead the formation first. That would not be good to the Market in the short run or even in the long run because of the pervasive climate of conflicts.

In sum, I would not invest in the Market with the hope of the coming election unless Chart Thai or Pue Paendin announces prior to election date of committing to go with the Democrats.

The formation of the coalition is the most crucial point to watch before one commits to the Stock Market. This may present an opportunity if there is any sign at all to favour the Democrats.

[Hampstead]

Its ALL about the thai retail investors, the thai's have been net sellers for years on their own stockmarket, the last year of any significant buying spree by the thai retail investors was in 2003

But then again the foreign investors are cutting back their investments which is not good news for 2008

The court case on friday will help restore foreign investor confidence in thai policy if favourable to ptt, this court case has shown once again how unpredictable thai policy can be, which is never good news for investors

If 2008 will be a positive year for the set, it needs the thai retail investors to have greater confidence in their own economy, and the foreign investors to feel that future thai policy will be in their favour

any way this link is what credit suisse have to say on the picks for post-elections

Broker_review_12.12.07_1_.pdf

[Irene]

Its ALL about the thai retail investors, the thai's have been net sellers for years on their own stockmarket, the last year of any significant buying spree by the thai retail investors was in 2003

But then again the foreign investors are cutting back their investments which is not good news for 2008

The court case on friday will help restore foreign investor confidence in thai policy if favourable to ptt, this court case has shown once again how unpredictable thai policy can be, which is never good news for investors

If 2008 will be a positive year for the set, it needs the thai retail investors to have greater confidence in their own economy, and the foreign investors to feel that future thai policy will be in their favour

any way this link is what credit suisse have to say on the picks for post-elections

Broker_review_12.12.07_1_.pdf

Hampstead,

Did you answer the questions posed under this thread? I don't think so.

Where Is The Thai Stock Market Going After Election?, And what factors will affect it?

[Hampstead]

Maybe you found yourself on another forum irene, the op asked what factors will give the set a boost!!!!

The stockmarket's factors of a boost will not be determined by just the elections

it will be about friday's court case and if that is positive for ptt, then the set will rise and for 2008 it's all about the thai retail investors, the elections are only part of the story

if the thai retail investors are confident in the elections being fair, then they will maybe comeback to buy thai stocks as the broker link details

if they still feel uncomfortable with the millitary meddling in the new government and ongoing political stalemates, then 2008 will be very much like 2007, a wait and see year for the thai's

[fletchsmile]

My View: 90% probablility some nice money to be made in the next few months. 10% probability of some big losses. Election is a key factor, but not the only one.

Democrat led coalition more favourable. PPP coalition, less comfortable, but I believe even if PPP get most seats they won't get a majority, and will not necessarily be able to form a coalition. eg even if PPP 1st place in total, 2nd place, 3rd place etc will come together.

Other factors: global equity markets, credit squeeze, HM's health, local confidence, foreign confidence etc etc