£ Sterling Up Sh*t Creek?

[JimsKnight]

According to the doom mongers the £ is (apparently) going to tank big time.

An article in the Phuket Gazette has allegedly stated the £ is accurately forcast to dive down to the depths of the £1 = 50 baht.

If that happens I know the PI, S. America etc will certainly see a wee flood of expats from LOS!

I know I'm not the only one reliant on the strength of the £ so wonder what some of the other expats have heard or feel about this.

Incidentally I reckon if it does tank then the $ will almost certainly be on it's tail as well so the ramafications are deep indeed....

Knowing how shy some of the posters are I've pasted a poll for easy responses.

Mods, I've started this in the general forum as a similar subject on this matter was getting minimal viewing in the business and economy section. This concerns more the everyday forum user, as opposed to just the masters of the universe in there

Edited December 17, 2007 by JimsKnight

[stevemiddie]

According to the doom mongers the £ is (apparently) going to tank big time.

An article in the Phuket Gazette has allegedly stated the £ is accurately forcast to dive down to the depths of the £1 = 50 baht.

If that happens I know the PI, S. America etc will certainly see a wee flood of expats from LOS!

I know I'm not the only one reliant on the strength of the £ so wonder what some of the other expats have heard or feel about this.

Incidentally I reckon if it does tank then the $ will almost certainly be on it's tail as well so the ramafications are deep indeed....

Knowing how shy some of the posters are I've pasted a poll for easy responses.

Mods, I've started this in the general forum as a similar subject on this matter was getting minimal viewing in the business and economy section. This concerns more the everyday forum user, as opposed to just the masters of the universe in there

The Phuket Gazette. The widely read financial paper of choice by economists, captains of industry, Finance Ministers, the World Bank, IMF , and of course...........JimsKnight.

Who cares what that rag says?

It was getting minimal viewing on the other forum probably due to the fact there is only you that believes that rubbish. IMHO

Edited December 17, 2007 by stevemiddie

[JimsKnight]

The thing is it's not just that rag, it's quite a few back home that are saying the same.

[lannarebirth]

Every time in the past 2 years, that the GBP has sold off to the point it is now at, it has bounced to make new highs. Maybe it won't this time, who knows?

It does have a bearish chart formation against the USD, which is falling slowly against the THB. So if it does go down, it will likely be greater than the USD will fall against the THB. But of course the USD has done plenty of falling already.

Edited December 17, 2007 by lannarebirth

[stevemiddie]

The thing is it's not just that rag, it's quite a few back home that are saying the same.

Please name them for me?

I do like to brush up on the Financial Times, NY Times, Washington Post................on a daily basis online.............just can,t seem to find any reference to this supposed...............sterling crisis.

Edited December 17, 2007 by stevemiddie

[JetsetBkk]

The thing is it's not just that rag, it's quite a few back home that are saying the same.

So why don't you give links to them?

Edit: Oops, sorry, stevemiddle beat me to it.

Edited December 17, 2007 by JetsetBkk

[stevemiddie]

The thing is it's not just that rag, it's quite a few back home that are saying the same.

So why don't you give links to them?

As we are typing he is probably desperately looking online for ANYTHING that will slightly agree with his doom mongering.

A link like.............( Sterling drops by 3 SATANG..................crisis! 1974 )

Tee hee hee

[lannarebirth]

Well, the apathy component seems to be in place. That's important.

[stevemiddie]

Well, the apathy component seems to be in place. That's important.

Ooops.

Edited December 17, 2007 by stevemiddie

[stevemiddie]

Well, the apathy component seems to be in place. That's important.

We prefer to call it............realism. Are you the other reader of the Phuket Gazette?

Edited December 17, 2007 by stevemiddie

[GuestHouse]

People have such short memories.

It is the Thai Bht that when up Sh*t Creek in the mid 90s and that, together with a strong £, blinded a few people to the economic reality that their plans to retire in Thailand were based on a post economic crash value of the Bht (Not just £ holders got caught with that one).

Now we have a rebalancing of the markets and the sums don't add up anymore.

That something, or someone is going up Sh*t Creek is without doubt - I don't think though that it is the £ that needs to start swimming.

[roamer]

Central banks around the world pumped billions into the system last week believing it would boost the markets; it had the exact opposite effect. So if those gentlemen can misjudge things so badly I doubt the Phuket Gazette can do much better. Its pretty obvious that there is going to be some crap raining down on us soon but not sterling in isolation. And if the world economy goes from sniffles to full blown flu theres certainly no reason for the baht to start out performing the major world currencies.

[JimsKnight]

The thing is it's not just that rag, it's quite a few back home that are saying the same.

So why don't you give links to them?

As we are typing he is probably desperately looking online for ANYTHING that will slightly agree with his doom mongering.

A link like.............( Sterling drops by 3 SATANG..................crisis! 1974 )

Tee hee hee

Nah, just got in from the lash so can't be fcked doing anything like that!

Night Night!

[stevemiddie]

The thing is it's not just that rag, it's quite a few back home that are saying the same.

So why don't you give links to them?

As we are typing he is probably desperately looking online for ANYTHING that will slightly agree with his doom mongering.

A link like.............( Sterling drops by 3 SATANG..................crisis! 1974 )

Tee hee hee

Nah, just got in from the lash so can't be fcked doing anything like that!

Night Night!

Don,t worry. Nobody believed the story about a " few back home saying the same " anyway.

Tootle Pip!

[Prakanong]

People have such short memories.

It is the Thai Bht that when up Sh*t Creek in the mid 90s and that, together with a strong £, blinded a few people to the economic reality that their plans to retire in Thailand were based on a post economic crash value of the Bht (Not just £ holders got caught with that one).

Now we have a rebalancing of the markets and the sums don't add up anymore.

That something, or someone is going up Sh*t Creek is without doubt - I don't think though that it is the £ that needs to start swimming.

As I say I got 34 to the GBP first time in Thailand

Loved it at 95 of course

In my head I always calculate to 60 as it was when I earned in THB- anything higher is a bonus

The old days of 40 were too low - I reckon 60 is probably a good rate.

[GuestHouse]

I agree with you, I think around Bht60/£ is probably a realistic rate and I also agree that anything above is a bonus.

I firmly believe the problems many are facing at the moment are due to an over optimistic view they made over the exchange rates based on the post economic crash - Forgetting all the while that if a deal sounds too good to be true, then it usually is, too good to be true.

[Prakanong]

I agree with you, I think around Bht60/£ is probably a realistic rate and I also agree that anything above is a bonus.

I firmly believe the problems many are facing at the moment are due to an over optimistic view they made over the exchange rates based on the post economic crash - Forgetting all the while that if a deal sounds too good to be true, then it usually is, too good to be true.

The majority of people have turned up in Thailand post crash - most of them post 2000 as well I bet. The internet has had a big effect on numbers turning up due to information dissemination - I would say disproportionately British as well.

Prices have not risen that much in the last 10 years in Thailand (for the good I pay for). OK I am earning a lot more than I did when I first rolled up backpacking so my perception may be skewed but not that much.

Beer

Food

Hotel - last time I stayed in Nana Hotel in 97 I paid about 900THB - how much is it today?

My first flight back from Samui was 50 GBP in 95 I think it was - how much is it now in GBP?

Thailand is still a bargain - thats why I fly up for weekends and why its difficult to get a seat - completely full this Thursday as Singaporeans head up for the long weekend of Hari Raya and no-one likes a bargain like a Singaporean - the buffets of Bangkok will have to look out this weekend

[ashacat]

As we are typing he is probably desperately looking online for ANYTHING that will slightly agree with his doom mongering.

A link like.............( Sterling drops by 3 SATANG..................crisis! 1974 )

Tee hee hee

Maybe you should stop posting sarcastic comments and start looking a bit harder then. Bloomberg news has a large peice on this. They quote quite a few well respected sources confirming these fears.

[Prakanong]

As we are typing he is probably desperately looking online for ANYTHING that will slightly agree with his doom mongering.

A link like.............( Sterling drops by 3 SATANG..................crisis! 1974 )

Tee hee hee

Maybe you should stop posting sarcastic comments and start looking a bit harder then. Bloomberg news has a large peice on this. They quote quite a few well respected sources confirming these fears.

Have you got the link - I am interested.

I have been trying to find another Bloomberg story by Andy Mukerhjee on how Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia are not too well placed with growing private enterprise companies - Thailand only has 2 CP and Thai Union Foods in a list of them and how the Forbes list is dominated by old clans with few break throughs.

[chiang mai]

I'm trying to understand this also but with difficulty. The BOE MPC minutes last month clearly spoke of a depreciation of Sterling and the markets have been selling selling heavily for the past few weeks. Having said that, year end usually sees Sterling take a dive. Clearly the trend is downwards at present and where it will end up is anyone's guess. There's no good news however on the UK economic front and little chance of getting any in the short term thus there is no reason for the slide to stop until gravity expires.

[JimsKnight]

Now we shall see what we can see Middie man!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom

You seem to think I'm pessimistic about the £? How wrong you are middie!

[Prakanong]

Now we shall see what we can see Middie man!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom

You seem to think I'm pessimistic about the £? How wrong you are middie!

Just what is the Wiki entry giving us exactly?

What about links to credible sources such as the FT, Economist et al and their views on the GBP

[rgs2001uk]

I agree with you, I think around Bht60/£ is probably a realistic rate and I also agree that anything above is a bonus.

I firmly believe the problems many are facing at the moment are due to an over optimistic view they made over the exchange rates based on the post economic crash - Forgetting all the while that if a deal sounds too good to be true, then it usually is, too good to be true.

GuestHouse

call it a gut feeling, or deja vu, but i firmly believe we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.

i remember in the early 90s a lot of brits selling property in the uk and heading for spain after depositing the proceeds from the house sale in the bank to take advantage of the 15% intrest rates available.

fast forward a few years, intrest rates drop, many were struggling and couldnt afford to go back.

as pointed out by prakanong, i remember getting about 32 or 33 baht to the £, as we all no there is no £/baht exchange rate, its worked on the us$/baht rate and multiplied by the £/$ rate.

i budgeted at 40 to the pound and anything over to be a bonus, and although its nice to have the extra i certainly dont fritter it away, my goal is to grow it not blow it.

however i fear for the many who have sold up in the uk and come here based on 60 plus to the pound, those on ret visas etc, the authorities dont work in £s but baht and many may well be caught out by not being able to meet the figures required by immigration.

my advice to anyone is never sell up in the uk and put all your eggs in one basket over here.

keep your property in the uk, rent it out if you have to, but at least its an insurance policy should it go belly up over here.

i personally know of 2 americans who have had to change plans based on the exchange rate, they can no longer meet the monthly figures now required by immigration.

how long before these figures are raised to say 80,000 baht per month for retirees at a rate of 25 baht to the dollar, all of a sudden thailand isnt so financially attractive, cue a whole host of condos on the market.

then again i could be wrong, i tend to take a belt and braces approach, prepare for the worst hope for the best.

worrying times for many, at least i can sleep at night.

[pete_r]

Here's a link to an article on Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Pound Peak Fuels Pessimism as Currency Mimics Dollar (Update4)

By Bo Nielsen and Kim-Mai Cutler

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Just a month after rising to a 26- year high against the dollar, the British pound is starting to look more like the beleaguered U.S. currency.

The pound weakened against 10 of the world's 16 most actively traded currencies since reaching $2.1161 on Nov. 9. In the U.K., just as in the U.S., policy makers are cutting interest rates to restore calm in credit markets and home prices are declining.

[...]

[Prakanong]

I agree with you, I think around Bht60/£ is probably a realistic rate and I also agree that anything above is a bonus.

I firmly believe the problems many are facing at the moment are due to an over optimistic view they made over the exchange rates based on the post economic crash - Forgetting all the while that if a deal sounds too good to be true, then it usually is, too good to be true.

GuestHouse

call it a gut feeling, or deja vu, but i firmly believe we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.

i remember in the early 90s a lot of brits selling property in the uk and heading for spain after depositing the proceeds from the house sale in the bank to take advantage of the 15% intrest rates available.

fast forward a few years, intrest rates drop, many were struggling and couldnt afford to go back.

as pointed out by prakanong, i remember getting about 32 or 33 baht to the £, as we all no there is no £/baht exchange rate, its worked on the us$/baht rate and multiplied by the £/$ rate.

i budgeted at 40 to the pound and anything over to be a bonus, and although its nice to have the extra i certainly dont fritter it away, my goal is to grow it not blow it.

however i fear for the many who have sold up in the uk and come here based on 60 plus to the pound, those on ret visas etc, the authorities dont work in £s but baht and many may well be caught out by not being able to meet the figures required by immigration.

my advice to anyone is never sell up in the uk and put all your eggs in one basket over here.

keep your property in the uk, rent it out if you have to, but at least its an insurance policy should it go belly up over here.

i personally know of 2 americans who have had to change plans based on the exchange rate, they can no longer meet the monthly figures now required by immigration.

how long before these figures are raised to say 80,000 baht per month for retirees at a rate of 25 baht to the dollar, all of a sudden thailand isnt so financially attractive, cue a whole host of condos on the market.

then again i could be wrong, i tend to take a belt and braces approach, prepare for the worst hope for the best.

worrying times for many, at least i can sleep at night.

Some excellent points.

I have seen a few people sell up in the UK and take the equity in their house thinking its going to last forever in Thailand.

They often have plans to open a business but want to waita bit first - they end up spending a lot of their capital plus they then realise they have made the leap a bit too early ie in their 40's or early 50's.

Some of them have really burned their bridges! I know an ex-city guy who is now living in a dingy bedsit in London after all other sorts of problems after a return home with fingers toasted.

A few years out of certain jobs and professions means its nigh on possible to pick up where you left off and return to employmen

As for American I know of- a few of them had to go back after the dot.con bubble - they had planned on ever increasing incomes?????

As you say - its hard to plan when the rules can (and probably will ) keep changing

[Prakanong]

Here's a link to an article on Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Pound Peak Fuels Pessimism as Currency Mimics Dollar (Update4)

By Bo Nielsen and Kim-Mai Cutler

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Just a month after rising to a 26- year high against the dollar, the British pound is starting to look more like the beleaguered U.S. currency.

The pound weakened against 10 of the world's 16 most actively traded currencies since reaching $2.1161 on Nov. 9. In the U.K., just as in the U.S., policy makers are cutting interest rates to restore calm in credit markets and home prices are declining.

[...]

Thanks

Singapore Monetary Authority have said they are going to let their dollar rise - I get paid in SGD so it might be time to buy some GBP in a few months and repatriate home!

[JetsetBkk]

In my head I always calculate to 60 as it was when I earned in THB- anything higher is a bonus

What a coincidence - 60 is the figure I use in my spreadsheets when doing calculations. Even 5+ years ago I was using 60 - just to be on the "safe" side. I think what the Gazette article was saying was that people should use 50 as the "safe" side figure.

[lannarebirth]

Here's a link to an article on Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Pound Peak Fuels Pessimism as Currency Mimics Dollar (Update4)

By Bo Nielsen and Kim-Mai Cutler

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Just a month after rising to a 26- year high against the dollar, the British pound is starting to look more like the beleaguered U.S. currency.

The pound weakened against 10 of the world's 16 most actively traded currencies since reaching $2.1161 on Nov. 9. In the U.K., just as in the U.S., policy makers are cutting interest rates to restore calm in credit markets and home prices are declining.

[...]

Though the GBP's chart vs the USD is bearish, to have such a universal consensus of it's impending weakness, near it's 20 year highs, would certainly make one question that bearish belief. As Joe Granville once said, "what everbody knows, ain't worth knowing".

[Prakanong]

In my head I always calculate to 60 as it was when I earned in THB- anything higher is a bonus

What a coincidence - 60 is the figure I use in my spreadsheets when doing calculations. Even 5+ years ago I was using 60 - just to be on the "safe" side. I think what the Gazette article was saying was that people should use 50 as the "safe" side figure.

I wonder what the median figure is other posters have?

Mine is due to it being what it was when I was paid in THB plus seemed to settle there for a while after the massive rise post July 97.

I used that about when calculating holiday spend after I left Thailand. Now I just use a THB in my head for trips ie 10k a day spending plus hotel.

[LinkPopularity]

Queen of all currencies ???

except Brits, nobody cares about the GBP ... not even a little bit !