Increasing Strength Of Thai Baht Against Gbp In Recent Weeks

[gdhm]

Has anybody any ideas, theories, logic or knowledge

1) why the Thai Baht has suddenly and so rapidly gained value in the last 2 weeks against the GBP.

2) What we may expect in the short term and mid term

I ask because I have just sold my house (in Spain after 20 months wait) and am seeking transfer of several million Baht from my UK bank so I can buy a car and house.

The sudden and rapid drop in the GBP compared to the Thia Baht has come as a complete surprise to me and the worst time possible (for my plans and is worrying. I have stalled my transfer intentions as I do not wish to write off a value of some 180,000 Baht compared to only 10 days or so ago.

I have noted the GBP <> Thai Baht recent History (based on Kasikorn Bank rates)

On the 2nd Nov 2007 the T/T & Draft value on the TT & Draft selling Rate value was 71.026 Baht to 1 GBP.

(The normal for many months has moved between 68 and mid 69s Baht to 1 GBP)

However, on the 12th Dec 2007 the TT & Draft rate was 68.92875 Baht to 1 GBP but ONLY 9 days later the GBP has collapsed to 67.135 -a drop of 2.61% in 9 days and it is still falling daily as of today's date

In the last 4 days alone the strength of the GBP to the Thai Baht has reduced by just over 1 baht to the GBP

I appreciate any input

Kindest regards

Dave

[Ricardo]

It is down to Sterling-weakness, ahead of the recent 0.25% cut in the Bank_rate by the Bank of England, rather than anything happening here. And IMHO this will be continuing. See the related thread on Sterling & the UK-economy which has been running for the past week.

Personally I have <1% in Sterling-cash, and only about 5% in UK-shares (mainly international), as I have been expecting this for some time. And got 71.1 on a TT to Thailand - when moving-in my next 9-months' living-costs.

So you might well just have to 'bite-the-bullet' on this. Why did you accept payment, for your property in Spain, in Sterling rather-than Euros, which have been stronger ?

One possible saviour, the baht might well weaken short-term, if there is political-instability, over the next couple of weeks ?

Edited December 21, 2007 by Ricardo

[sonicdragon]

Oh good - another thread on sterling, to add to the other 2 active threads on the same topic. Just what we need

FWIW I agree with Ricardo's comments.

[tijnebijn]

not only the pound , also the Euro has weakened 2 baht in the last few weeks .

[BalthazarBeefheart]

Has anybody any ideas, theories, logic or knowledge

1) why the Thai Baht has suddenly and so rapidly gained value in the last 2 weeks against the GBP.

2) What we may expect in the short term and mid term

I ask because I have just sold my house (in Spain after 20 months wait) and am seeking transfer of several million Baht from my UK bank so I can buy a car and house.

The sudden and rapid drop in the GBP compared to the Thia Baht has come as a complete surprise to me and the worst time possible (for my plans and is worrying. I have stalled my transfer intentions as I do not wish to write off a value of some 180,000 Baht compared to only 10 days or so ago.

I have noted the GBP <> Thai Baht recent History (based on Kasikorn Bank rates)

On the 2nd Nov 2007 the T/T & Draft value on the TT & Draft selling Rate value was 71.026 Baht to 1 GBP.

(The normal for many months has moved between 68 and mid 69s Baht to 1 GBP)

However, on the 12th Dec 2007 the TT & Draft rate was 68.92875 Baht to 1 GBP but ONLY 9 days later the GBP has collapsed to 67.135 -a drop of 2.61% in 9 days and it is still falling daily as of today's date

In the last 4 days alone the strength of the GBP to the Thai Baht has reduced by just over 1 baht to the GBP

I appreciate any input

Kindest regards

Dave

[BalthazarBeefheart]

I fully sympathise with this situation due as I see it nothing to do with any baht strength but purely due to a run on sterling mainly caused by a swathe of bad news after the .25% interest rate cut. The B of E minutes revealed it was a unanimous decision that plus the core inflation figures being lower than expected prompting speculation of another January cut in interest rates.

Yesterdays balance of payments figures compounded all this - today it is retail sales figures which may or not influence things further.

With all this news there has been a sell off of the pound - I think people are beginning to realise the UK economy may be in a worse mess than the USA.

Things aren't helped when Brown and Darling appear saying the UK economy is still strong the day before awful figures come out - hardly inspires confidence.

As far as the BAHT is concerned I believe most important to Thailand is managing as best they can their exchange rate with the US - I believe their biggest trading partner and as others have said you can get the GBP BHT rate by THB-USD and then by GBP USD.

Todays TT rate for USD is 33.59 so to get 70BHT - GBP would need a GBPUSD rate of 2.08.

I think it all boils down as to what happens between the GBP and USD - forex is the biggest market in the world influenced by so many different factors and constantly changing.

Perhaps next month the B of E will not lower interest rates and the FED will - then there might be some increase in GBP - unlikely events as the market sees it.

Lets say the bad news continues out of the UK and the pound falls to 1.80 well at current rates that would make for 60.48 bht to the pound - personally I think there may be a slight rally in the pound in January as it generally does against the dollar at this time - perhaps there was too much overselling of the pound at year end. It would be at this point that I will be getting out of sterling - if it ever arises.

I think you just have to keep monitoring the situation.

Good Luck BB

[gdhm]

It is down to Sterling-weakness, ahead of the recent 0.25% cut in the Bank_rate by the Bank of England, rather than anything happening here. And IMHO this will be continuing. See the related thread on Sterling & the UK-economy which has been running for the past week.

Personally I have <1% in Sterling-cash, and only about 5% in UK-shares (mainly international), as I have been expecting this for some time. And got 71.1 on a TT to Thailand - when moving-in my next 9-months' living-costs.

So you might well just have to 'bite-the-bullet' on this. Why did you accept payment, for your property in Spain, in Sterling rather-than Euros, which have been stronger ?

One possible saviour, the baht might well weaken short-term, if there is political-instability, over the next couple of weeks ?

Hi Ricardo

Rate early December for HiFX transfer from Euro to GBP was good. My bank account Nationwide Building Society is my only account and until this last 10 days the rate from GBP to Thai Baht was OK with me. I had not expected what has happened in 10 days - which is very dramatic IMHO.

Additionally, I closed my only Spanish Bank after my house sale as it is very difficult operating that from Thailand (and all links with Spain have now been severed. HiFX does offer at all decent ER for Thai Baht is for some reason -being very much lower than Currencies Direct or MoneyCorp. I also felt I needed to be in Thailand to speak with my bank to ensure I do not get hit by the 30% reserve holding

I was trying to open a Foreign Currency Deposit Account and transfer 75 % of my cash from UK into it but have been caught out as Kasikorn in Khon Kaen said they were not operational with it yet. During the time I started to search alternatives all hel_l let loose with the Exchange Rate.

If I can set up a FCD account I will transfer as intended and hope for a day or so blip return to mid 68s and I will transfer to Baht.

Regards

Dave

[jackr]

Has anybody any ideas, theories, logic or knowledge

1) why the Thai Baht has suddenly and so rapidly gained value in the last 2 weeks against the GBP.

2) What we may expect in the short term and mid term

I ask because I have just sold my house (in Spain after 20 months wait) and am seeking transfer of several million Baht from my UK bank so I can buy a car and house.

The sudden and rapid drop in the GBP compared to the Thia Baht has come as a complete surprise to me and the worst time possible (for my plans and is worrying. I have stalled my transfer intentions as I do not wish to write off a value of some 180,000 Baht compared to only 10 days or so ago.

I have noted the GBP <> Thai Baht recent History (based on Kasikorn Bank rates)

On the 2nd Nov 2007 the T/T & Draft value on the TT & Draft selling Rate value was 71.026 Baht to 1 GBP.

(The normal for many months has moved between 68 and mid 69s Baht to 1 GBP)

However, on the 12th Dec 2007 the TT & Draft rate was 68.92875 Baht to 1 GBP but ONLY 9 days later the GBP has collapsed to 67.135 -a drop of 2.61% in 9 days and it is still falling daily as of today's date

In the last 4 days alone the strength of the GBP to the Thai Baht has reduced by just over 1 baht to the GBP

I appreciate any input

Kindest regards

Dave

I'm in the same boat. Got 66.5 today. Better than a possible 64.5 next week or worse, but knowing my timing it'll shoot back up to 70!

[lazeeboy]

goig to the uk soon ,hope it falls more so it wont cost me as much