2008 Investments - Idea Sharing

[bingobongo]

here is some advice fletch, stick to a savings account until you know what your doing

my guess is you did not sell the bounce........

[Kf6vci]

There are two articles I would recommend: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a5419aa-bd47-11...?nclick_check=1 and http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=bond

To be honest, I'm bearish on Thailand and the world economy. You might have noticed yesterday's (today's) bloodshet in the financial sector? CFC, WM look at those American banks! IMHO, the crisis is blown way beyond the subprime sector and one enormnous problem will be credit card and other private debt this year.

Good luck to you all and remember to preserve your capital! Those who want to hold stocks should consider writing call options. Often, they can earn high fees like double digit % doing that. Those who trade futures should consider buying T-Bills as those are margineable 90-100%, the latter only for a few days.

[sonicdragon]

There are two articles I would recommend: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a5419aa-bd47-11...?nclick_check=1 and http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=bond

To be honest, I'm bearish on Thailand and the world economy. You might have noticed yesterday's (today's) bloodshet in the financial sector? CFC, WM look at those American banks! IMHO, the crisis is blown way beyond the subprime sector and one enormnous problem will be credit card and other private debt this year.

Good luck to you all and remember to preserve your capital! Those who want to hold stocks should consider writing call options. Often, they can earn high fees like double digit % doing that. Those who trade futures should consider buying T-Bills as those are margineable 90-100%, the latter only for a few days.

Thanks for the links. The FT article is a good read (written by Stephen Roach).

[sonicdragon]

Also from the FT, Larry Summers is just as concerned about the outlook for the US economy, but has a very different prescription from Roach:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3b3bd570-bc76-11...00779fd2ac.html

[fletchsmile]

here is some advice fletch, stick to a savings account until you know what your doing

my guess is you did not sell the bounce........

Bingo

My strategy as you know revolves around "investing and time in the market"; rather than "timing the market and trading"/speculation. I'm looking for consistent double digit growth year on year.

Yes I missed the 5% - 9% gains you suggested on the Yen. I can live with that, as on the other hand I was acheiving: 16%, 19%, 39% and 41% in investments in Thailand last year for example - a country you were/are very bearish on. I'm not a currency speculator, and am more interested in protecting my capital in currencies than trying to make a quick buck in currencies. You'll also note I talk of year on year/ annual performance rather than quick bucks from trading.

No I didn't "sell the bounce". Nor did I take your advice to sell in August 2007 at the bottom of the market either. (Your sell low buy high isn't usually a good move for equities ) Let's just say the double digits were comfortably acheived instead. If you're getting those on a savings account let me know...

Edited January 10, 2008 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

There are two articles I would recommend: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a5419aa-bd47-11...?nclick_check=1 and http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=bond

To be honest, I'm bearish on Thailand and the world economy. You might have noticed yesterday's (today's) bloodshet in the financial sector? CFC, WM look at those American banks! IMHO, the crisis is blown way beyond the subprime sector and one enormnous problem will be credit card and other private debt this year.

Good luck to you all and remember to preserve your capital! Those who want to hold stocks should consider writing call options. Often, they can earn high fees like double digit % doing that. Those who trade futures should consider buying T-Bills as those are margineable 90-100%, the latter only for a few days.

Thanks for the links. The FT article is a good read (written by Stephen Roach).

Also from the FT, Larry Summers is just as concerned about the outlook for the US economy, but has a very different prescription from Roach:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3b3bd570-bc76-11...00779fd2ac.html

Thought all 3 were interesting articles cheers for the links.

[macleod101]

'I own TFUND, FUTUREPF, SIRIPF and SPF. They are listed on the SET so you need to have a Thai stockbroker to deal. They have dividend yields in the range of 7.25% to 9.9% (although FUTUREPF and SPT own leasehold not freehold property so the yields effectively include a return of capital as well as '

my portfolio offers dividend rewards of 7.75% to 10.25%

[macleod101]

There are two articles I would recommend: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a5419aa-bd47-11...?nclick_check=1 and http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=bond

To be honest, I'm bearish on Thailand and the world economy. You might have noticed yesterday's (today's) bloodshet in the financial sector? CFC, WM look at those American banks! IMHO, the crisis is blown way beyond the subprime sector and one enormnous problem will be credit card and other private debt this year.

Good luck to you all and remember to preserve your capital! Those who want to hold stocks should consider writing call options. Often, they can earn high fees like double digit % doing that. Those who trade futures should consider buying T-Bills as those are margineable 90-100%, the latter only for a few days.

I would be very bearish on Thailand, in the current state of the world. seeing as the US is nearly in a bear market, the UK is almost definatly heading the same way.. and many other markets are also heading that way.. stockbrokers across the world will be getting into work and doing nothing all day long, widespread job cuts and to say the least we are heading into 'global depression', although Thailand's already fairly depressed..

[fletchsmile]

'I own TFUND, FUTUREPF, SIRIPF and SPF. They are listed on the SET so you need to have a Thai stockbroker to deal. They have dividend yields in the range of 7.25% to 9.9% (although FUTUREPF and SPT own leasehold not freehold property so the yields effectively include a return of capital as well as '

my portfolio offers dividend rewards of 7.75% to 10.25%

.....

I would be very bearish on Thailand, in the current state of the world. seeing as the US is nearly in a bear market, the UK is almost definatly heading the same way.. and many other markets are also heading that way.. stockbrokers across the world will be getting into work and doing nothing all day long, widespread job cuts and to say the least we are heading into 'global depression', although Thailand's already fairly depressed..

I thought the following from ING fund managers had some good bullet point/ powerpoint style coverage of a lot of factors. Starts off a little on the global views, but then has a lot of info on Thailand, economy, markets, politics, etc

http://www.ingfunds.co.th/EN/upload/news/addfile-184.pdf

If you like THB dividend yields, the electronic sector might be interesting.

"Expect a volatile year on the SET". "Relative to many peers Thailand doesn't look expensive". It has lowest P/E ratios of the regional peers. At their "SET target of 1,000 implied P/E ratio is only around 13.5", still below many peers.

Korea also looks interesting. Also recall quite a bit being written in H2 of last year about Warren Buffet being bullish on Korea

Edited January 10, 2008 by fletchsmile

[thaistocks]

OK, whatever..., hurray to the "home of the brave and free". Is it?

The US economy is also now heading/leading the world with a home cooked recession, soley due to their irresponsible housing boom/bust. Yet, another bust. The 4th in the past few years, and all coming out of the US. As the US economy slows down to recessionary levels, the price of Oil will likely drop as well. This will be very good for corporate Thailand. Many growing Thai companies here trade at half or less the p/e ratio then in the US, pay 3 times the dividends as compared to the US, and have 3-4 times the expected earnings growth rate then the US. Thailand is benefiting from the continued boom in the north by China and in the West by India.

AS for low regulations in the US, nonsense..that place is about as regulated and taxed as they come. For example in the US only foreign investors don't pay taxes on stock gains, go figure that.

And don't forget some of the largest financial scandals have also originated there in the past few years. The biggest bankcruptie in history and the biggest corporate bond default in history all orginiate from the US! The continued falling US currency is another embarasement, who wants to invest in a dropping currency on top of a dropping stock market?

I can continue but will stop here, as I got work to do. Investment work that is, and its not in the US.

But at some point later in 2008, as home prices there collapse even more..yes at some point a US residence might be a good grab from one of the millions of bailing out overstretched US consumers, holding the bag.

Edited January 12, 2008 by thaistocks

[dog412]

OK, whatever..., hurray to the "home of the brave and free". Is it?

The US economy is also now heading/leading the world with a home cooked recession, soley due to their irresponsible housing boom/bust. Yet, another bust. The 4th in the past few years, and all coming out of the US. As the US economy slows down to recessionary levels, the price of Oil will likely drop as well. This will be very good for corporate Thailand. Many growing Thai companies here trade at half or less the p/e ratio then in the US, pay 3 times the dividends as compared to the US, and have 3-4 times the expected earnings growth rate then the US. Thailand is benefiting from the continued boom in the north by China and in the West by India.

AS for low regulations in the US, nonsense..that place is about as regulated and taxed as they come. For example in the US only foreign investors don't pay taxes on stock gains, go figure that.

And don't forget some of the largest financial scandals have also originated there in the past few years. The biggest bankcruptie in history and the biggest corporate bond default in history all orginiate from the US! The continued falling US currency is another embarasement, who wants to invest in a dropping currency on top of a dropping stock market?

I can continue but will stop here, as I got work to do. Investment work that is, and its not in the US.

But at some point later in 2008, as home prices there collapse even more..yes at some point a US residence might be a good grab from one of the millions of bailing out overstretched US consumers, holding the bag.

forgive me, but are you trying to explain why the average Thai is so well off financially, or why such a minority of Thais are so wealthy?

[kdvsn]

OK, whatever..., hurray to the "home of the brave and free". Is it?

The US economy is also now heading/leading the world with a home cooked recession, soley due to their irresponsible housing boom/bust. Yet, another bust. The 4th in the past few years, and all coming out of the US. As the US economy slows down to recessionary levels, the price of Oil will likely drop as well. This will be very good for corporate Thailand. Many growing Thai companies here trade at half or less the p/e ratio then in the US, pay 3 times the dividends as compared to the US, and have 3-4 times the expected earnings growth rate then the US. Thailand is benefiting from the continued boom in the north by China and in the West by India.

AS for low regulations in the US, nonsense..that place is about as regulated and taxed as they come. For example in the US only foreign investors don't pay taxes on stock gains, go figure that.

And don't forget some of the largest financial scandals have also originated there in the past few years. The biggest bankcruptie in history and the biggest corporate bond default in history all orginiate from the US! The continued falling US currency is another embarasement, who wants to invest in a dropping currency on top of a dropping stock market?

I can continue but will stop here, as I got work to do. Investment work that is, and its not in the US.

But at some point later in 2008, as home prices there collapse even more..yes at some point a US residence might be a good grab from one of the millions of bailing out overstretched US consumers, holding the bag.

What brought on that tirade?

[sonicdragon]

My first new investments of 2008: curve steepeners in EUR and USD (10s vs 2s)

[ace]

When the bloodshed has stopped I think there will be bargains to be had. Probably I'll go for US based fund in the summer. If China drops big then maybe there. Forget UK, Europe safe but no bargains likely.

[Naam]

When the bloodshed has stopped I think there will be bargains to be had. Probably I'll go for US based fund in the summer. If China drops big then maybe there. Forget UK, Europe safe but no bargains likely.

interesting! you might go to China? what for? please elaborate.

[Naam]

2008 Investments - Idea Sharing / What's On Your Mind?

since quite some time (but not early enough) i wake up in the morning and cash is on my mind. when i'm sipping my morning coffee and read the financial news more cash is on my mind. when i take a look at my portfolio on my mind is "why the eff do i hold only 52.46% cash?" and when i go to bed (if it's not a weekend) on my mind is "what can i sell tomorrow to increase my cash?" when my wife asks "what about a little fooling around?" on my mind is "do we have surplus cash for those blue pills?"

[fletchsmile]

My first new investments of 2008: curve steepeners in EUR and USD (10s vs 2s)

A little more interesting than mine, which were all funds. Mine were:

GBP: Neptune Rusia and Greater Russia fund, and Charlemagne Magna Africa Fund. Paid for by selling a European fund

SGD: DWS Gobal Agribusiness, UOB Gold and General, First State Global Resources, UOB Global resources. Paid for by selling part of 1 Asian fund, and 1 Asian mixed bond and equity fund

[fletchsmile]

2008 Investments - Idea Sharing / What's On Your Mind?

since quite some time (but not early enough) i wake up in the morning and cash is on my mind. when i'm sipping my morning coffee and read the financial news more cash is on my mind. when i take a look at my portfolio on my mind is "why the eff do i hold only 52.46% cash?" and when i go to bed (if it's not a weekend) on my mind is "what can i sell tomorrow to increase my cash?" when my wife asks "what about a little fooling around?" on my mind is "do we have surplus cash for those blue pills?"

Seems you've an adequate supply of cash: so go long the blue pills for when your female klingon is in the mood: you never know when liquidity will dry up in the market, or regulations will change as to what you can buy.

Looking ahead perhaps diversify into a few products for the Mrs, in case she stops asking the questions about fooling around. In Thailand some people also suggest diversifying the Mrs or Mrs (plural). I wouldn't like to make any suggestions on that one tho'

Edited January 14, 2008 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

For anyone interested in SET, (and based outside Thailand, so doesn't read the Bangkokpost daily ), I thought the following was a reasonable summary:

Stocks plunge as turmoil persists

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/23Jan2008_biz38.php

Some extracts:

..Foreign investors remain the sellers for 14 straight days, ... retail investors were buyers" (slightly higher than foreign investors, so it wasn't just local institutions taking up the slack)

Local Finance Minister expressed confidence that the "Thai market would soon rebound once the global panic eased. "

"On the Thailand Futures Exchange, trade rose to an all-time high at 14,124 contracts, with 24,949 contracts that have yet to expire and remain outstanding. "

"SET president Patareeya Benjapolchai noted that the Thai market, down 13% since the year began, had fallen less than others in the region, ...and ''The Thai economy remains healthy and listed company earnings this year are expected to be strong.'' Vichate Tantiwanich, a SET executive vice-president, said that in past market crises foreign investors typically returned to invest within two to four months.

eg Barings, Sep 11 2001 etc.

''...I think that if the US economy declines, we could see the SET index fall to 680 points. But in the second half, we still forecast the index to reach 1,090,'' Mr Kavee said.

''The market will continue to be volatile throughout the first quarter, and could extend to the second quarter if earnings by US financial institutions remain poor,'' Mrs Siriporn said.

-----------

The messages I'd take:

- Market remains volatile

- Yes there is downside

- But there is more upside. (680 vs 1,090)

- For those that are panicking/selling and running scared, you risk missing out on the upswings if you get your timing wrong

- Possible suggestion that foreign investors are just tarring all markets with the same brush at the moment in their panics, and not really looking at Thailand on its fundamental merits whereas local retail players maybe more in tune

Edited January 23, 2008 by fletchsmile

[dannishgung]

Fletch, I also had the UOB Gold and General fund for a while about 2 years from 2004-05 , and I sold it too quick and went up so much again after I sold it. Now there is a little drop in the fund price since last month at 1.978SGD or 1.386USD as for today's pricing, I am thinking to buy it back since this one is so tough even in the bad times, do you think this is a cheap entry point? What do you think the outlook for this fund for next 1 to 2 years time horizon.

I also had the UOB Greater China Fund and United Asia Fund back in 03-05, and sold them all too quickly, regret it, after I sold them both shot to the roof. And I noticed there is a big drop recently, thinking maybe to buy them back? Would you buy these 2 back at this low level about the level of last Aug, to me I still think even US go into recession, China, Singapore, Malaysia, HK, India markets ect would probably still grow, but at a lower pace, and I don' think 2008 will be bear markets in above 5 markets.

UOB charge 5% for all these aggressive funds, I think if buy in HK still about the same, the UOB relation manager never give me any discount on sale charges.

[LivinLOS]

Wouldnt touch China now.. Sure it can keep on trucking but would just cause me too much lost sleep..

I stepped out of a big HUI position this week and now it looks like FED cut and gold run has held off any downdraft for the immediate.. I dont think I will step back in just yet personally but will look for an entry point if we get a rout. All that said I am pretty sure precious metals miners will be higher at year end but I had a lot of run up in the last 3 years and didnt want to give profits back in a bloodbath downdraft.

[Naam]

bought for 2% of my portfolio a certificate (1:1.5) on a hedge fund ISIN DE000AOFDGY8

[Edonista]

bought for 2% of my portfolio a certificate (1:1.5) on a hedge fund ISIN DE000AOFDGY8

can't find the stuff anywhere , what is it supposed to be ?

[Naam]

bought for 2% of my portfolio a certificate (1:1.5) on a hedge fund ISIN DE000AOFDGY8

can't find the stuff anywhere , what is it supposed to be ?

index certificate on hedge fund "Thames River Multi-Hedge", emitted by Nomura. you can buy the hedge fund directly without leverage Lonon Stock exchange.

http://zertifikate.onvista.de/snapshot.htm...p;CHART=1#chart

http://aktien.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_OSI=10225446

[Naam]

if somebody is interested to short the SSE here's an interesting ETF:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=0...p;q=l&c=fxp

it doesnt track the Shanghai Composite perfectly but should do well in case of a meltdown.

disclaimer: i am not interested in any shorting.

[Edonista]

bought for 2% of my portfolio a certificate (1:1.5) on a hedge fund ISIN DE000AOFDGY8

can't find the stuff anywhere , what is it supposed to be ?

index certificate on hedge fund "Thames River Multi-Hedge", emitted by Nomura. you can buy the hedge fund directly without leverage Lonon Stock exchange.

http://zertifikate.onvista.de/snapshot.htm...p;CHART=1#chart

http://aktien.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_OSI=10225446

Leverage on a hedge fund ? The world has gone crazy....

Do you have any idea of what the hedge fund portfolio is ?

[Naam]

bought for 2% of my portfolio a certificate (1:1.5) on a hedge fund ISIN DE000AOFDGY8

can't find the stuff anywhere , what is it supposed to be ?

index certificate on hedge fund "Thames River Multi-Hedge", emitted by Nomura. you can buy the hedge fund directly without leverage Lonon Stock exchange.

http://zertifikate.onvista.de/snapshot.htm...p;CHART=1#chart

http://aktien.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_OSI=10225446

Leverage on a hedge fund ? The world has gone crazy....

Do you have any idea of what the hedge fund portfolio is ?

it's a "fund of funds" and the portfolio comprises half a dozen other funds with exposure "you name it, they are exposed to it"

thats the first time i bought' a derivative but there is always a first time, isn't it? my reason to buy was the performance second half of 2007. now i'll give it 3-6 months and if i'm not satisfied i will sell. liquidity exists.

[sonicdragon]

bought for 2% of my portfolio a certificate (1:1.5) on a hedge fund ISIN DE000AOFDGY8

can't find the stuff anywhere , what is it supposed to be ?

index certificate on hedge fund "Thames River Multi-Hedge", emitted by Nomura. you can buy the hedge fund directly without leverage Lonon Stock exchange.

http://zertifikate.onvista.de/snapshot.htm...p;CHART=1#chart

http://aktien.onvista.de/snapshot.html?ID_OSI=10225446

Thames River is my favorite hedge manager. I've own their Warrior fund of funds for a long time, and just recently bought the Apex credit fund and the Distressed Focus fund.

[fletchsmile]

Fletch, I also had the UOB Gold and General fund for a while about 2 years from 2004-05 , and I sold it too quick and went up so much again after I sold it. Now there is a little drop in the fund price since last month at 1.978SGD or 1.386USD as for today's pricing, I am thinking to buy it back since this one is so tough even in the bad times, do you think this is a cheap entry point? What do you think the outlook for this fund for next 1 to 2 years time horizon.

I also had the UOB Greater China Fund and United Asia Fund back in 03-05, and sold them all too quickly, regret it, after I sold them both shot to the roof. And I noticed there is a big drop recently, thinking maybe to buy them back? Would you buy these 2 back at this low level about the level of last Aug, to me I still think even US go into recession, China, Singapore, Malaysia, HK, India markets ect would probably still grow, but at a lower pace, and I don' think 2008 will be bear markets in above 5 markets.

UOB charge 5% for all these aggressive funds, I think if buy in HK still about the same, the UOB relation manager never give me any discount on sale charges.

I bought UOB Gold & General for the following reasons:

- Think it will do fine over 1 to 2 years. As LivinLOS says metal mining looks good and should hold up OK.

- Fits with the BRICS theme/emerging markets and their demand for metals/precious metals

- I hold Black Rock Merril Lynch Gold and General via the UK, which has been solid, and I was looking for something similar in my Singapore located portfolio.

- I switched out of 2 mainly Asian funds partly into this. Reasons: I had a good year last year in China/HK a little etc. so was taking a few profits and re-investing here.

China:

- Worth considering buying for anyone that doesn't have. I see it more as hold/reduce slightly

- I prefer Russia to China at the moment. I still have quite a large Asia/China/HK weighting, so I'd rather add a BRIC fund or a Russia fund, than China alone.

- I also figure with BRIC funds they can adjust between the markets as and when needed, whereas I need to keep more of an eye on single country.

- Things will slow a little this year in China, but many people are still saying 10% economy growth. There's definitely more to come from these markets, in years ahead, and think most people should consider some exposure if they don't already have.

- For UOB Gold and General whereas 1-2 years looks fine. For China I'd be more 1-3 years and keep more of an eye on it, as it will be more volatile. Short term could be some losses in China, but mid-longer term there's still a story

All the above just my views tho' and fit my risk appetitie, being part of portfolios, and not in isolation. Story could be different for others

For fund charges: don't go direct. Use a funds supermarket/discount broker or your bank to discount. 5% is too high.

UK: I can usually get zero initial charge via Hargreaves Lansdown

Singapore: I often pay around 2% via my bank, tho' sometimes get promotions beyond that.

Another example is "Fundsupermart.com" if you can't pressure your bank. I haven't used them, but they are Singapore registered, and licenced.

https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/buyse...e.svdo?code=ALL

Shows 1.75% to 2% initial charge on these funds

[fletchsmile]

Thames River is my favorite hedge manager. I've own their Warrior fund of funds for a long time, and just recently bought the Apex credit fund and the Distressed Focus fund.

Thames River have a good name. A couple of quick questions:

- Who did you buy thru?

- Do they charge performance related fees?