The Panic Starts ? Invest In Gold !

[sonicdragon]

It will be really interesting to see what happens to the monoline insurers tomorrow......I came close to shorting AMBAK last week at 23 but didn't have the guts

Edited January 21, 2008 by sonicdragon

[VegasVic]

I too think the chances of something really ugly happening are much higher.. Forget subprime, the whole debt is money paradigm could be about to change. Kondratieff waves predict this is the next great depression, the incredible debt bubbles made by the fed need popping, the entire US economy seems to be hanging on via an idea that you can borrow and spend and that makes wealth.

I too own gold (and silver) but having bet the farm on them back at mid 300's and mid 6's I am not unduly concerned.. I personally think Gold could correct quite a bit from its latest levels and will be much more volatile thanks in part to the ease with which buy and sell orders can be executed on the ETF's.. I am confident gold will be higher in nominal dollar terms (if that means anything.. Its spending power and wealth preservation I am more concerned with) so until I see a better asset class I will hold. The time will come (in the darkest hour before dawn) when commercial property / a performing UK country estate or farm / or other long term bet will appeal more than the metal of kings. But for now the fear hasnt really hit.

Those intending to retire based on portfolios with large equity portions will probably need a good long time horizon to realize gains this time round.

Ah yes, the old wives tale that Americans are all in debt way over their heads and that the dollar is about to become a worthless currency. I guess if stupidity like that gets posted here enough then those who can't think for themselves take it as the gospel truth. The reality however is that the total NET worth of U.S. households is very close to $60 trillion (yes thats trillion with a T), which by the way is more than the NET worth of the rest of the world combined! Hence the envy and animus towards everything American by many here! Another false tale propogated here on a routine basis is how that gold was $800/ounce back in 1980 and that would equate to $2500 or so today so gold has a lot further to go up. Wrong thinking again my gold buggy friends, gold was only elevated to those lofty levels back 28 years ago because the Hunt brothers were trying to corner the world silver market and dove silver to the $50/ounce level and gold came along for the ride during all the frenzy. Gold is in a similiar frenzy now and it will have a blow off top soon and fall back to levels that are more in line top its underlying value. Please by all means don't listen to me, feel free to go ahead and short the dollar and the DOW, and go long on gold, and a year from now we can revisit this discussion

Vic, you seem to have missed the point. Either that, or you just prefer to look to other way. It's not about the actual amount of debt. It's about the distribution of the debt combined with a chronic shortage of national savings, a rapidly expanding money supply, and other well known factors.

Sonic, it is not that there is a chronic shortage of national savings, but rather the way that savings is calculated in the U.S.. In the U.S. the savings calculation does not include equity in ones' home (or homes in many cases) or the equity in a retirement plan or investment in stocks. That is why you might see articles about the low savings rate in the U.S. and yet the actual net worth of Americans is at around $60 trillion. Now before you or someone else gets on a diatribe about -oh yea but U.S. home values are in a freefall and the equity is evaporating- realize that in many areas of the U.S. home prices are actually rising and in those areas that are falling they are falling by 5-20% and most of those areas saw a doubling of values between 2003 and 2006 so these homeowners are still way ahead of where they were back in 2003. Those hit by the real estate crisis in the U.S. are the ones that bought their home at the top of the bubble (in those bubble areas) and got creative ARM financing and bought way more home than they could afford normally, also investors (many of whom were foriegners) who bought multiple properties during that period. Then there were the ones who tapped the equity in their homes via home equity loans and went on a spending spree, but even with that said well over 90% of Americans have equity (most have very considerable equity) in their homes, and if a report I saw a few months back is accurate then over 30% own their home free and clear. The expanding money supply has indeed led to the worst inflation in 18 years (4.1% for all of 2007) in the U.S., but then again when you compare that 4.1% inflation in the U.S. to what is curently happening in China or the hyper inflation that many other countries have experienced or are currently experiencing, then that 4.1% figure seems pretty insignificant and makes those Americans complaining about the cost of living look like a bunch of spoiled children!

Vic, you are right that home price values do not enter the calculation of national savings. It is simply irrelevant to it. National savings is a concept that forms part of national income accounting. Increasing home prices will mask a shortage of national savings, this is part of the problem that the USA now has. Home prices are not increasing - certainly not in the aggregate - and I'm surprised to hear from you that they are many areas - what is your source for that ?

Sonic, Home and land prices have been increasing in the Pacific northwest(Seattle in particular), some areas throughout the midwest (perhaps due to the skyrocketing prices for corn, soybeans and wheat), NYC (Manhattan in particular), and a few selected areas of the southeast (definately nowhere in Florida!), bad news seems makes better headlines than good news so you hear more about Florida, California and Las Vegas than you do about these areas. Also as I stated, not only is home equity not part of the savings rate calculation, but stock and bond investments and pension plans (both private and corporate) are not included. Should this recession not be a short and shallow one then yes of course that $60trillion figure could very well be diminished to around $45-$50trillion by next fall, still quite a substantial figure for a country that supposedly has a negative savings rate As for the poster who doesn't believe the recently reported inflation figures of 4.1% for 2007, I am not certain if you think that it is higher or lower, but that 4.1% figure was just recently put out and I think it was an upward revision from 3.7%, so you may have been more familiar with the unrevised figure? If you think that the inflation number is higher than 4.1% then I guess it depends on where in the U.S. you reside, just like unemployment it varies greatly from state to state, I know in Michigan the unemployment level is over 8% while here in Arizona it was in the 3's but I think it just recently climbed to around 4%. I have to admit that my wife does most of the grocery shopping, but I do go with her about twice a month and outside of a few produce items, milk and bread I haven't seen any real increase in the groceries that we usually buy in the past year. I can tell you that we recently purchesed a High Def LG 42 inch LCD TV for the bedroom and it was $719 after the instant $300 rebate from Direct TV at Circuit City, and the older model of this LG TV sold for $1400 just a year ago, so while there are a few grocery items that may have increased in price they are more than offset by some of the big ticket tech items whose prices have come down in the past year! We may have to agree to disagree about home equity, in the U.S. it is the single largest chunk of retirement nestegg for most people and thankfully it is why my wife and I were able to comfortably retire in our late 40's. By the way sonic I do enjoy most of your posts. I hope all goes well over there with the new government!

[LivinLOS]

Those are the same inflation figures that the gov uses that claim your new computer is worth twice as much as your old one despite you paying half as much for it.. The tools are called hedonic adjustments and mean they revise inflation down (it allows them to pay less in benefits) while falsely revising growth up..

And comparing the price of overseas produced (more money flooding out of US savings) LCD TV is the very malaise that I am talking about.. You couldnt have made my point about american consumerism any finer.

Go to (the truly excellent) shadowstats.com for real inflation numbers or even numbers calculated by previous administrations (as each new admin adds layers and layers more hedonic / false) changes.

[IMA_FARANG]

Aren't you glad you can post that stuff without using your real name?

I've heard all that GOLD stuff before.

My questions are:

1. Can an investor eat Gold?

2. If an investor has a lot of Gold he wants to sell, but no one has the money to buy it, where does thr investor sell the Gold?

3. Can a person eat an ounce of Gold?

Back in the late 70's or early 80's a friend of mine who was working in Saudi Arabia for Aramco went for the Gold thing. He bought a lot of Gold, as it went up thru $700 an ounce, $800 an ounce an even $900 an ounce. He internded to hold it untill it made $1000 and then sell. Unfortunatly the maket topped at about $950. By the time he got around to unloading his Gold it was back Down below $700.

He says he figures he worked in Saudi for free for one year in order to cover the losses on the Gold he bought above $700 an ounce.

[LivinLOS]

The day that gold is worthless, the world banking system as collapsed, money is useless, its rioting and kill or be killed. Of course I have a plan in case the world ends up like that (the first being tickets to a safer part of it) but that is real survialist buy guns and ammo time and I am not that far down the goldbug trail.

As to your friend who bought 900 gold.. Sounds a genuis.. Especially as it didnt trade at that price.. So people bought at the tops, tell it to the people with 14k dow.. 39k Nikkei.. Or people who bought normal US property 06.. Or people who bought US equity in 1929. Theres always needs to be a greater number of losers for a smaller number to gain real wealth (not merely nominal / break even).

Edited January 22, 2008 by LivinLOS

[sonicdragon]

Those are the same inflation figures that the gov uses that claim your new computer is worth twice as much as your old one despite you paying half as much for it.. The tools are called hedonic adjustments and mean they revise inflation down (it allows them to pay less in benefits) while falsely revising growth up..

And comparing the price of overseas produced (more money flooding out of US savings) LCD TV is the very malaise that I am talking about.. You couldnt have made my point about american consumerism any finer.

Go to (the truly excellent) shadowstats.com for real inflation numbers or even numbers calculated by previous administrations (as each new admin adds layers and layers more hedonic / false) changes.

Yes, I agree on this. Inflation is systematically understated in the USA (and many other countries) and hedonics is a big part of the reason. Another big part of the reason is known as substitution - ie it is not inflationary if the price of a substitute does not rise, and in fact if the price of a substitute falls then it lowers inflation. For example, if the price of pork rises, but the price of beef stays the same, there is no effect on inflation. If the price of beef falls (while pork rises) then it lowers inflation. Another good one is that when the price of oil falls, this lowers the core rate of inflation - however when the price of oil rises, it only affects the headline and does not affect the core. There are a bunch of other statistical tricks too which act to reduce the reported inflation level.

The basic reasoning behind this is as follows: in the 90's it was realised that there was a mounting problem with inflation-linked payments (eg COLA). It would be a win-win situation if the government could keep the reported level of inflation down (thus reducing social security payments etc), while allowing actual inflation to rise (thus reducing the future repayment of government debt in real terms). In order to justify this, studies were commissioned that concluded that inflation was being overstated due to quality improvements (hedonics), and the consumers ability to substitute cheaper goods for more expensive ones. Many economists protested strongly about this, but the government machine prevailed.

[sonicdragon]

Sonic, Home and land prices have been increasing in the Pacific northwest(Seattle in particular), some areas throughout the midwest (perhaps due to the skyrocketing prices for corn, soybeans and wheat), NYC (Manhattan in particular), and a few selected areas of the southeast (definately nowhere in Florida!), bad news seems makes better headlines than good news so you hear more about Florida, California and Las Vegas than you do about these areas. Also as I stated, not only is home equity not part of the savings rate calculation, but stock and bond investments and pension plans (both private and corporate) are not included. Should this recession not be a short and shallow one then yes of course that $60trillion figure could very well be diminished to around $45-$50trillion by next fall, still quite a substantial figure for a country that supposedly has a negative savings rate As for the poster who doesn't believe the recently reported inflation figures of 4.1% for 2007, I am not certain if you think that it is higher or lower, but that 4.1% figure was just recently put out and I think it was an upward revision from 3.7%, so you may have been more familiar with the unrevised figure? If you think that the inflation number is higher than 4.1% then I guess it depends on where in the U.S. you reside, just like unemployment it varies greatly from state to state, I know in Michigan the unemployment level is over 8% while here in Arizona it was in the 3's but I think it just recently climbed to around 4%. I have to admit that my wife does most of the grocery shopping, but I do go with her about twice a month and outside of a few produce items, milk and bread I haven't seen any real increase in the groceries that we usually buy in the past year. I can tell you that we recently purchesed a High Def LG 42 inch LCD TV for the bedroom and it was $719 after the instant $300 rebate from Direct TV at Circuit City, and the older model of this LG TV sold for $1400 just a year ago, so while there are a few grocery items that may have increased in price they are more than offset by some of the big ticket tech items whose prices have come down in the past year! We may have to agree to disagree about home equity, in the U.S. it is the single largest chunk of retirement nestegg for most people and thankfully it is why my wife and I were able to comfortably retire in our late 40's. By the way sonic I do enjoy most of your posts. I hope all goes well over there with the new government!

I've just posted about inflation in general, so I won't repeat those, but obviously it is very difficult to judge whether inflation is more or less than reported, particularly since one household's inflation rate is different from another's - the concept of inflation is one of general price levels so no one can really say one way or the other - it is a matter for economic theorists, econometricians and statisticians and unfortunately economists have a difficult time even agreeing on what inflation is, let alone on how to measure it, except in very abstract terms. And even if a personal inflation rate can be estimated, I suspect that errors in calculation could easily mean that the difference between say 4% and 7% would be statistically meaningless (ie not noticeable). However, over a long period of time, the effect of such an actual difference is huge.

Your point about regional differences should also apply to inflation as well as home prices, I would expect, though to a much lesser extent.

Do you have any link to data about regional home prices ? I would be interested.

[sonicdragon]

Aren't you glad you can post that stuff without using your real name?

I've heard all that GOLD stuff before.

My questions are:

1. Can an investor eat Gold?

2. If an investor has a lot of Gold he wants to sell, but no one has the money to buy it, where does thr investor sell the Gold?

3. Can a person eat an ounce of Gold?

Back in the late 70's or early 80's a friend of mine who was working in Saudi Arabia for Aramco went for the Gold thing. He bought a lot of Gold, as it went up thru $700 an ounce, $800 an ounce an even $900 an ounce. He internded to hold it untill it made $1000 and then sell. Unfortunatly the maket topped at about $950. By the time he got around to unloading his Gold it was back Down below $700.

He says he figures he worked in Saudi for free for one year in order to cover the losses on the Gold he bought above $700 an ounce.

The briefly answer your questions

1. No.

2. If no one has the money to buy it, that means either the price must be zero, or fiat money has no value. In either case, gold itself would then be money, as has been the case throughout history.

3. This seems to be the same question as in 1) or did I misunderstand ?

History is strewn with examples of people who bought all kinds of assets at high prices and then either became very bitter about it (and in the case of gold are now vehemently ant-gold), or became obsessive that they will one day be proved to have been right (and in the case of gold are now goldbugs). However I am yet to come across someone such as your friend who apparently bought gold at prices significantly in excess of the highest recorded price.

Spare a thought for those who bought into the "japanese miracle" in 1989 and saw their investment dwindle by 75% 13 years later.

[LivinLOS]

I find it mildly ironic that a poster can say that house prices are still rising.. And theres low inflation..

Look at the inflation in house prices !!!!

Of course people dont see it as inflation when its in assets they own.. Stock market nominal gains, rising house prices, rising art prices, rising classic car prices, etc etc etc.. Arte all the result of this glut of money sloshing about.. Its inflation !!

[sonicdragon]

I find it mildly ironic that a poster can say that house prices are still rising.. And theres low inflation..

Look at the inflation in house prices !!!!

Of course people dont see it as inflation when its in assets they own.. Stock market nominal gains, rising house prices, rising art prices, rising classic car prices, etc etc etc.. Arte all the result of this glut of money sloshing about.. Its inflation !!

Ahh, that reminds me of another other nugget in the current CPI calculations - "imputed rent". Prior the early 80s CPI included the actual costs of housing (including mortgage payments), but the BLS in their infinite wisdom then decided to remove this, as it was "causing inflation to be overstated" ! ! ! They replaced it with a number which is supposed to be the rent that an owner-occupier would have to pay if they were renting, and that is known as "imputed rent". It is well known that growth in rentals has significantly underperformed home prices over an extended period, so the result of this is a further understatement of real inflation - I've seen calculations estimating this difference to be in the order of 4%.

[LivinLOS]

Yeah just another example.. But the whole system is a mess of smoke and mirrors..

But inflation is only at 4% LOL..

[siamamerican]

US taxes in my case will be minimal.. My only income in Thailand will be investment income and after all the deductions and exemptions, I will pay 0-5% on my gains most years. If I had millions, it would be a different story. I look forward to the day that taxes are a concern.

if i am not completely mistaken the exemptions for those living abroad (something like 85k nowadays) are not applicable to earnings from investment but from work. check with your tax solicitor!

No, you receive standard deductions and exemptions regardless of where you live. I have no idea what the non-investment income exemption is, but your figure seems about right. In my case, roughly the 1st 20k in realized investment income won't be taxed. I've managed to mitigate the taxes the last few years by selling stocks in the red as well as stocks in the black. I realize that certain years I'll pay taxes, but they won't be substantial.

Currently I itemize my deductions and 30-40k of income isn't taxed. I'll be taking the standard deductions while in Thailand. Hence only the 1st 20k won't be taxed.

Sorry, you're right. Investment income is taxed, but there are other deductions that can be taken. Depends on what you are talking.

I'm talking about the deductions and exemtions a US tax payer takes every year regardless if they live in Thailand or the US. For a married couple that take the standard deduction and doesn't itemize, roughly 20k isn't taxed.

Edited January 22, 2008 by siamamerican

[kdvsn]

the good news is that the aliens who abducted Jim Sinclair released him again. he nearly drove them mad with his bla-bla

The markets in the US haven't opened yet but Sinclair's call of a 1000 point drop in the DOW looks like a reasonable at this point in time even though he called it one trading day early. Gold is down versus Friday, so I suppose one could argue that he was only half right. So do we still believe that Sinclair was abducted by aliens? This call, coupled with his call of the top in gold in 1980, makes me think that he mgiht be considerable richer than me and than the average Thai Visa enthusiast.

Edited January 22, 2008 by kdvsn

[Naam]

the good news is that the aliens who abducted Jim Sinclair released him again. he nearly drove them mad with his bla-bla

The markets in the US haven't opened yet but Sinclair's call of a 1000 point drop in the DOW looks like a reasonable at this point in time even though he called it one trading day early. Gold is down versus Friday, so I suppose one could argue that he was only half right. So do we still believe that Sinclair was abducted by aliens? This call, coupled with his call of the top in gold in 1980, makes me think that he mgiht be considerable richer than me and than the average Thai Visa enthusiast.

assuming i was right in a specific case NEARLY THREE DECADES ago and assuming i am making a statement today containing two dozen "prophecies' out of which two are obvious to happen tomorrow or day after tomorrow, does that make me a guru who is "half right"?

[GuestHouse]

Oh No! The world's stock markets are down, the Baht is up and the exedous draws nearer.

Or are those who last week were telling us they had 'solid' portfolios turing up consistant double figures now going to tell us they moved into bonds JIT.

[lannarebirth]

Oh No! The world's stock markets are down, the Baht is up and the exedous draws nearer.

Or are those who last week were telling us they had 'solid' portfolios turing up consistant double figures now going to tell us they moved into bonds JIT.

I enjoy your posts very much Guesthouse and I love the give and take (which could be of a higher quality) in this forum, but smugness is unbecoming.

[GuestHouse]

Nothing 'smug' about my post at all.

What we have is a barrage of claims that even an ounce of economic understanding demonstrates to be shaky at best, reckless at worst but in reality most likely 'pie in the sky'.

Recent events reveal the folly of all this nonsense it is right and proper that we should take note of the facts.

As I have said before, people are making serious life choices and being encouraged to make serious life choices on the basis of very dodgy advice.

[fletchsmile]

Oh No! The world's stock markets are down, the Baht is up and the exedous draws nearer.

Or are those who last week were telling us they had 'solid' portfolios turing up consistant double figures now going to tell us they moved into bonds JIT.

Baht is up or down. Don't mind too much either way. As for portfolios, have done the usual ongoing rebalancing, mindful of what might happen. But to be honest it's just time to take the rough for a while, after a few years of smooth. Besides you appreciate the ups more once you've experienced the downs.

If you want life all your own way, you're going to be disappointed sometimes. My idea of a solid portfolio is one that regularly averages the returns you mention over a five year period.

As well as the people who claim they shifted at the right time, there'll also be those pointing out every investment they called heads, and ignoring the tails.

Great opportunity to test theories!

[Naam]

Oh No! The world's stock markets are down, the Baht is up and the exedous draws nearer.

Or are those who last week were telling us they had 'solid' portfolios turing up consistant double figures now going to tell us they moved into bonds JIT.

I enjoy your posts very much Guesthouse and I love the give and take (which could be of a higher quality) in this forum, but smugness is unbecoming.

for me "i told you so!" is worse than smugness. but i admit that quite often i too have to hold my horses

[Abrak]

I think it is worth noting that gold has not really been the place to be in the latest panic.

Gold was always a US recession, weak dollar, rising commodities bet.

The latest panic has been about global recession and has seen commodity prices fall across the board - we are also seeing the US dollar hold up as concerns turn to the sterling and euro economies. The place to have been was the short end of US treasuries.

[Naam]

If you want life all your own way, you're going to be disappointed sometimes. My idea of a solid portfolio is one that regularly averages the returns you mention over a five year period.

some of us old people have neither the life span nor the patience to wait several times for the results of a five year period

[lannarebirth]

I think some sort of "before the bell" Fed intervention is currently baked into futures prices. The truth is their is little they can do and nothing they can do that is not already expected. Still Gold is off. I think it may have more to do with this bulletin I received earlier today from my broker:

Futures Intraday Margin

Reduced intraday margin rates are being eliminated temporarily due to extreme market volatility.

[LivinLOS]

Oh No! The world's stock markets are down, the Baht is up and the exedous draws nearer.

Or are those who last week were telling us they had 'solid' portfolios turing up consistant double figures now going to tell us they moved into bonds JIT.

I for one lost a bundle in the last week or so... Lost a few hundred K USD on my mining equity alone in only a week.. Liquidated the lot either in market yesterday or forward priced UT's until last night.. Probably 11 or 12% off its peak in a week but up over 120% over the couple of years. I dont normally trade at all (just a 5% of assets toy fund for trading and picks), and I normally dont let the swings bother me as I usually feel its just shaking out the weak hands but am not feeling good about equity at all and this is looking more and more like carnage. I feel the unhedged miners will take a beating for a few more sessions and would risk any small upside to protect against harder downside risk. If this bloodbath settles within weeks I will be back into them.

Then again I sleep peacefully with mostly gold and silver bullion thats in the rest of the portfolio.. Better than currency for my own peace of mind.

[sonicdragon]

I think some sort of "before the bell" Fed intervention is currently baked into futures prices. The truth is their is little they can do and nothing they can do that is not already expected. Still Gold is off. I think it may have more to do with this bulletin I received earlier today from my broker:

Futures Intraday Margin

Reduced intraday margin rates are being eliminated temporarily due to extreme market volatility.

Righ. Gold is off because many investors and speculators are having to meet margin calls and to do so they must sell their profitable positions. This just goes to show that gold is not always the safe haven it is touted as. As another poster pointed out, short dated treasuries are the place to be just now.

[ray08]

I think some sort of "before the bell" Fed intervention is currently baked into futures prices. The truth is their is little they can do and nothing they can do that is not already expected. Still Gold is off. I think it may have more to do with this bulletin I received earlier today from my broker:

Futures Intraday Margin

Reduced intraday margin rates are being eliminated temporarily due to extreme market volatility.

Righ. Gold is off because many investors and speculators are having to meet margin calls and to do so they must sell their profitable positions. This just goes to show that gold is not always the safe haven it is touted as. As another poster pointed out, short dated treasuries are the place to be just now.

At times like this , better to keep your money in a AAA rated bank , market all over the place , gold is still very overvalued ,and as for shares good luck

[GuestHouse]

I for one lost a bundle in the last week or so... Lost a few hundred K USD on my mining equity alone in only a week..

What are you smoking, and can I have some?

[LivinLOS]

I think some sort of "before the bell" Fed intervention is currently baked into futures prices. The truth is their is little they can do and nothing they can do that is not already expected. Still Gold is off. I think it may have more to do with this bulletin I received earlier today from my broker:

Futures Intraday Margin

Reduced intraday margin rates are being eliminated temporarily due to extreme market volatility.

Righ. Gold is off because many investors and speculators are having to meet margin calls and to do so they must sell their profitable positions. This just goes to show that gold is not always the safe haven it is touted as. As another poster pointed out, short dated treasuries are the place to be just now.

At times like this , better to keep your money in a AAA rated bank , market all over the place , gold is still very overvalued ,and as for shares good luck

The real tin foil hatters will point out FDIC insurance only for the first 100k USD.. Plus there may be a long line

[LivinLOS]

I for one lost a bundle in the last week or so... Lost a few hundred K USD on my mining equity alone in only a week..

What are you smoking, and can I have some?

Smoking nothing.. But I may need to have some self medication before these markets shake themselves out !!

In %age terms its not a big deal.. But its never nice losing the value of a modestly nice house in a week.

[LivinLOS]

I think some sort of "before the bell" Fed intervention is currently baked into futures prices. The truth is their is little they can do and nothing they can do that is not already expected. Still Gold is off. I think it may have more to do with this bulletin I received earlier today from my broker:

Futures Intraday Margin

Reduced intraday margin rates are being eliminated temporarily due to extreme market volatility.

Righ. Gold is off because many investors and speculators are having to meet margin calls and to do so they must sell their profitable positions. This just goes to show that gold is not always the safe haven it is touted as. As another poster pointed out, short dated treasuries are the place to be just now.

Golds also off as the USD has done some appeciation as everyone liquidates.. However its still up 6 something % in last 30 days..

Gold is the least worrying of my holdings.. I worry more about any USD.

[Naam]

I think some sort of "before the bell" Fed intervention is currently baked into futures prices. The truth is their is little they can do and nothing they can do that is not already expected.

besides today's 75bps:

UBS EXPECTING 50BP NEW WEEKS MEETING, AND JPM EXPECTING ANOTHER 50BP EASE AT THE JAN 30TH FOMC MEETING AND AN ADDITIONAL 25BP IN MARCH TO TAKE THE TERMINAL RATE TO 2.75%