Economic Management & Policy Under The Ppp ?

[Ricardo]

We new are on-the-point of having a new PPP-led coalition-government, which begs the question, how will things change.

Certainly the economy grew less-strongly, against a backdrop of political-uncertainty and global economic problems, over the past 18 months, but now we have a new government which has promised a return to the 'glory days'. Is this possible ? How will they achieve it ?

What will happen to village-debt and helping the poor ? How will the government finance the 30-Baht hospital-care scheme ? How will the Baht be managed by the BOT ? Will the railways or ports get major investment ?

How will they manage and finance the proposed trippling of tourist-arrivals ? Will work resume on Thaksins' proposed Low-Cost-Carrier terminal at Suvarnhabhumi ? Will Thai Airways get the funds it needs to expand and take advantage of the planned growth in tourism ?

And, of real interest to expats this, will bar opening-times change or alcohol-tax rise ?

[Lilawadee]

I for one am not terribly optimistic. The coup and subsequent banning of the new TRT echelon of technocratic leadership has set the country back to the days of the Chavalit and Banharn administrations of self serving political clans bickering amongst themselves.

My only hope is actually Mr. Thaksin and if he can impose some kind of direction that moves things beyond this Banharn/Chavalit era of doing things. But even on that I'm not very hopeful because I think a lot of the people in government are far too happy with themselves right now.

The one 'good' thing like you mention could indeed be that ineffective corrupt leadership allows plenty of opportunity for 'small vice', so possibly the true barflies can have something to look forward to.

[Disclaimer: All of this is my personal opinion / assessment. ]

Edited January 22, 2008 by Lilawadee

[Upcountry]

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss....

[Ricardo]

I confidently forcast a promo-tour by Man-City, and a football-academy for Thai youth, making Thailand the S.E.Asian hub of training, which might not be a bad thing, if it helps a few lads to move on up to real money. Hope it is properly funded though ! Lottery-cash or blank-cheque from the new government ?

[Plus]

Errr, apparently the current Thai footballers "signed" by Man City are left stranded without paychecks...

"Echelon of technocratic leadership" got plenty of wives, sons, brothers and assorted cousins in Parlament already. I suppose they are just as technocratically minded as the likes of Newin.

The government will be torn apart between the need to feed all its mouths (and some MPs have ver big ones), dish out the money to their voters, invest in infrastructure (no one applied at the last bid), and gloomy economic reality. And then there's a little issue of trying to bring Thaksin back against very unfavourable public opinion.

They might try doing it cowboy style, but, unlike Thaksin, they have no idea what they are doing. You can't play cowboy if you can't even ride a horse.

[jbowman1993]

I for one am not terribly optimistic. The coup and subsequent banning of the new TRT echelon of technocratic leadership has set the country back to the days of the Chavalit and Banharn administrations of self serving political clans bickering amongst themselves.

My only hope is actually Mr. Thaksin and if he can impose some kind of direction that moves things beyond this Banharn/Chavalit era of doing things. But even on that I'm not very hopeful because I think a lot of the people in government are far too happy with themselves right now.

The one 'good' thing like you mention could indeed be that ineffective corrupt leadership allows plenty of opportunity for 'small vice', so possibly the true barflies can have something to look forward to.

[Disclaimer: All of this is my personal opinion / assessment. ]

If Thaksin Shinawatra is your only hope - you are well and truly screwed. Pinning hopes on a man who's only goal is to make more money and gain as much power for himself as possible. Good luck with that!

[mrtoad]

No change, the same people will get richer, and the rest can go and get screwed,

[ade100]

According to the Secretary General of the PPP, "The most urgent task is to build confidence for local and overseas investors,".

I was reading this article from Channel News Asia

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp.../324128/1/.html

It seems the PPP is admitting that LOS has one of the worst economies in SE Asia and are putting their thinking caps on to try to improve it. Expats, technically speaking, are foriegn investors, so who know, they might just make it a bit easier for us to stay here longer and spend more money.

[Ricardo]

Perhaps the former Dear Leader might set an example, return his offshore funds, and build a real business which isn't dependant on government money and corruption or tax-breaks ? Though I fear he has more confidence in the B.V.I. than in Thailand.

Perhaps riot-control equipment, or medicine, might become growth industries ? Certainly a few large infra-structure projects would be useful, after an appropriate 'tendering' process, perhaps it might be possible to pick ones which add economic-value to the country too.

Plus, you mean to say, Thaksin didn't learn to ride a horse or be a cowboy, when living for some years in Texas, did he pay someone else to do it for him ?

[John K]

I don’t think anything will change because they have not a clue what to do. These are the same people that were around before Thaksin via proxy, they had not a clue then and the same is likely true now. Thaksin can’t get involved in any way without them going down. It looks like the Thais have purchased an empty container of hope.

[soundman]

No change, the same people will get richer, and the rest can go and get screwed,

Exactly, if you are part of the team - you will do will under this administration. If you are on the outside - you'll need eyes in the back of your head to survive this next phase of Thai political direction un-scathed.

As for the regular voters who put them in power - they will receive crumbs & their reward will be getting sucked into a life-long indebtedness to major companies and financial institutions owned & controlled by those they voted into power.

[Lilawadee]

Let's wait and see who they come up with on the key economic posts.

My hope is that they will manage the economy with the same ability as under TRT governments. They really did a good job with the economy, as I'm sure most will recall.

[Samuian]

Expats, technically speaking, are foriegn investors, so who know, they might just make it a bit easier for us to stay here longer and spend more money.

= Purely "technically" indeed!

"to stay here longer and spend more money."

In raising the minimum of spending/income amount, raising the concerned taxes, Visa etc. fees?

Forcing every Ex pat to have a fixed 1 year Bank Deposit of, say 4 Million instead of 400.000/800.000 or we all have to buy a VIP "Thai"-Membership Card of say 2 Million?

It's the wrong boys at the helm, if only this could be changed permanently, this country would be indeed Suvannabhum!

It may never happen, there will always be someone skimming off the cream! Far too many pockets which have to be "lined"

without even only the most marginal return!

Edited January 23, 2008 by Samuian

[Plus]

Let's wait and see who they come up with on the key economic posts.

My hope is that they will manage the economy with the same ability as under TRT governments. They really did a good job with the economy, as I'm sure most will recall.

You have to think very far back.

2005, the year of their biggest win and absolute majority was nothing to write home about. Neither was 2006.

When all the numbers are put together, 2007 wasn't too bad either.

Earlier years were resulf of rehabilitation of businesses devastated by 1997 crisis. Now they are back in business as usual, and they can't grow at 6-7% anymore. Different stage of development.

[samran]

Let's wait and see who they come up with on the key economic posts.

My hope is that they will manage the economy with the same ability as under TRT governments. They really did a good job with the economy, as I'm sure most will recall.

I hope they don't - cause it was pretty bad. Especially towards the end, most policy was made on the run, and done for purposes other than the good of the nation. PTT shares for 35 baht anyone? Where was the competition policy, deregulation and economic reform that Thailand desperately needs to modernise the economy. Shelved, especially if it hurt dear leaders business. A telecoms regulator? Yes, lets stack them with my cronies.

Oh I forgot, we were going to have 'hubs' instead. Hubba-hubba. All roads led to Thaksin. That was the only hub.

Thats what happens when you get a marketer (Somkid) as finance minister.

The good economic times we did expereince were a pretty direct result of the democrats swallowing the medicine that needed to be taken after 1997, and they paid an electoral price for that. Problem with the democrats though, is they are so stuffed full of chardonnay socialists with ML, MR tiles or na Auythaya surnames, and with their oxbridge educations that they don't know what a poor person is.

This lot will be even worse - they have no policy.

[Ricardo]

Any ideas, on what actions it might take from the new government, to achieve a US$:Baht rate of 35 ?

[steveromagnino]

Let's wait and see who they come up with on the key economic posts.

My hope is that they will manage the economy with the same ability as under TRT governments. They really did a good job with the economy, as I'm sure most will recall.

U have got to be frigging joking. And that's said as a former labourer for a TRT family.

Everyone knows that the only TRT deals done were to profit themselves, and everyone else was cut out. Alledgedly

- bird flu cover up for CP

- airport for various contractors

- PTT listing for themselves

- 30b healthcare for importing drugs by Sudarat's family

- village fund to stimulate domestic spending and chang family (among others)

- FTAs to benefit Shin Satt & CP

- property boom to help SC Asset and various other contributors plus direct profits in pHuket etc to politician families

- TAMC for TRT to get hold of discounted assets and make profits

- ITV deregulation and concession changes directly for Shin to profit

- no telco deregulation directly for AIS

- tourism growth and marketing including film festival/BKK fashion city/elite card for enriching the TAT governor Mrs 20%

- Picnic Gas and variuos other dodgy deals to fund TRT electoral payoffs

- NTCC and NTC 'stacking' to ensure no governance; payoffs for media using AIS budget to ensure no media coverage

- Liverpool buy out to use government money to promote TRT/cult of Thaksin

- village fund, free taxis, free cows to encourage TRT/cult of Thaksin using our tax money

Please name one sustainable core competency other than how to rip off people and get the poor to vote for you that TRT cultivated, I could do with a good laugh.

All economic success in the early 2000s was due to prudence in the late 90s; Thaksin is the typical spender, now we need a financially wise govt to get us back on track....PPP are inept....Mingkwan as finance minister as was being considered?????!

Holy cr*p./

[pattyboy]

I'd have to agree with many others that nothing substantial will change. The main problems of corruption, favoritism, and nepotism that are so deeply ingrained in the Thai culture and the political system will take generations to change. I was talking to a Thai restaurant owner about this type of subject a while ago, and he felt that it would take at least 50 years before any significant shifts in attitude will occur. That amount of time reflects a couple of generations, but I think he's being optimistic.

Edited January 24, 2008 by pattyboy

[soundman]

U have got to be frigging joking. And that's said as a former labourer for a TRT family.

Everyone knows that the only TRT deals done were to profit themselves, and everyone else was cut out. Alledgedly

- bird flu cover up for CP

- airport for various contractors

- PTT listing for themselves

- 30b healthcare for importing drugs by Sudarat's family

- village fund to stimulate domestic spending and chang family (among others)

- FTAs to benefit Shin Satt & CP

- property boom to help SC Asset and various other contributors plus direct profits in pHuket etc to politician families

- TAMC for TRT to get hold of discounted assets and make profits

- ITV deregulation and concession changes directly for Shin to profit

- no telco deregulation directly for AIS

- tourism growth and marketing including film festival/BKK fashion city/elite card for enriching the TAT governor Mrs 20%

- Picnic Gas and variuos other dodgy deals to fund TRT electoral payoffs

- NTCC and NTC 'stacking' to ensure no governance; payoffs for media using AIS budget to ensure no media coverage

- Liverpool buy out to use government money to promote TRT/cult of Thaksin

- village fund, free taxis, free cows to encourage TRT/cult of Thaksin using our tax money

Please name one sustainable core competency other than how to rip off people and get the poor to vote for you that TRT cultivated, I could do with a good laugh.

All economic success in the early 2000s was due to prudence in the late 90s; Thaksin is the typical spender, now we need a financially wise govt to get us back on track....PPP are inept....Mingkwan as finance minister as was being considered?????!

Holy cr*p./

This is what all toxin supporters conveniently forget. Toxin's fabulous economic period of 2001 - 2004 had absolutley nothing to do with his decisions, rather the effect of the hard decisions made in '96.

In fact, with all the fiasco's like CTX scanner, Liverpool etc I am surprised how conveniently people choose to forget.

Biggest thing that has affected my family has been the raising of (un-avoidable in the building industry) corruption based fees to local government nayok's & SorSor's from government spending from around 5 - 7 % of contract value pre Taxin to around 17 - 25% during Taxin's administration, making all work nearly un-profitable for the contractors.

Have a look around and see how many civil building companies have any new machines. Very few, & this is a good indicator of who is actually making any money. See next line....

Check out all the re-election budgets, new properties, share portfolio's & cars the TRT backed nayok's and SorSor's have purchased under the taxin regime.

Soundman.

[steveromagnino]

This is what all toxin supporters conveniently forget. Toxin's fabulous economic period of 2001 - 2004 had absolutley nothing to do with his decisions, rather the effect of the hard decisions made in '96.

WORD.

I forgot to mention the massive favourtism to those who voted for him, and punishment of the south for not choosing him. As well as the convenient benefits to his son (How Come) getting the underground advertising contract and others; alledged pref entry for both his daughters into Kaset and Chula; his tantrums when one of his daughters was asked in class to perhaps consider the pros and cons of TRT, the conversion of state land into saleable land for his cronies; the reduction in marine tax and blind eye turned to the Royal Phuket Marina development by a mate of his that would otherwise be illegal, the assurance he would not remain PM followed by refusal to leave, stacking armed forces, police and any other institution with his family, using tax payer money to get agricultural and rural votes with minimum guarantees on prices followed by dumping/rot plus the deisel subsidy, abusing Thai airways flights for friends and family including a nice shopping trip for Khingying Pojaman to Cartier Singapore all paid for by tax coffers....and so on.

but other than the most rampant corruption and profiteering Thailand has EVER seen in a leader, and other than being a total bellend, he is a top bloke.

Frank Sinatra. The hero of Thaivisa :-)

[samran]

[ his tantrums when one of his daughters was asked in class to perhaps consider the pros and cons of TRT,

oh, do tell. I like poor little hi-so stories.

[Prakanong]

According to the Secretary General of the PPP, "The most urgent task is to build confidence for local and overseas investors,".

I was reading this article from Channel News Asia

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp.../324128/1/.html

It seems the PPP is admitting that LOS has one of the worst economies in SE Asia and are putting their thinking caps on to try to improve it. Expats, technically speaking, are foriegn investors, so who know, they might just make it a bit easier for us to stay here longer and spend more money.

Terrible economic prospects exactly.

One industry, auto, where thailand appears on global or regional maps

I liked the one where they wanted to be bio-tech - absolutely hilarious but some posters here beleived the govt PR and have no connection with reality.

Look at where the domestic capital is being invested - media and property where law bans competitors.

FDI - ROFLMAO - missing the boat on a weekly basis. low value assembly jobs and no high value added - a basket case.

[sriracha john]

As well as the convenient benefits to his son (How Come) getting the underground advertising contract and others

The most accurately named company in the history of Thailand business.

[samran]

As well as the convenient benefits to his son (How Come) getting the underground advertising contract and others

The most accurately named company in the history of Thailand business.

SRJohn,

I think this is what euphamistically passes for good economic management by some posters.

And I know I'll get flogged for this, but I'll take an economically responsible junta over "democratically" elected populist who sues to death anyone who opposes them. The last junta let people critize them, and nary a law suit was filed.

There will be those who disagree, but the calibre of the ministers in the last military backed government was impressive, and while it wasn't obvious to many what they actually did, their reforms were structual, and will be long lasting.

One of their last acts was (for instance) to set up an independent energy regulator which would have never happened under a PPP or TRT government.

Obviously the fruits of policies such as this will be born when PPP are in power, for which they'll take credit for.

[Ricardo]

As well as the convenient benefits to his son (How Come) getting the underground advertising contract and others

The most accurately named company in the history of Thailand business.

Personally I thought that "Ample Rich" was also a strong contender ... now can anyone remind me who owned them ?

The recent news about bird-flu may help achieve the desired currency-correction, if not then perhaps allowing the free & uncontrolled flow of funds out of the country might help, if only we could think of someone with serious-money ready to transfer ...