Will The Dollar Rebound In 2008

[Naam]

The Big oil bastards, YES

could you elaborate who they are and why they are bastards?

[maxcrc]

The Big oil bastards, YES

could you elaborate who they are and why they are bastards?

Because OPEC members are now so adict to high oil prices they are constatly blackmailing of slashing production.

Few year ago there was a consensu amongst OPEC members oil at $10 was too cheap and that $30 price was "fair", than they have been raising their views of "fair price" month by month.

At the last meeting they agreed to keep current levels of production and at the same time threating that if prices DARE to go below $90 ,production will be cut.

Yes, I agree they are a bunch of bastards. Not only Saudis, UEA,Qatari ,Kuwaiti,Bruneian Wadaullah, Mr. Chavez but many other petro-businessmen.

You can look at food prices ,check the insights of many experts (i know you don t like soem anal-ists, but there are few good ones) or a long research done by The Economist few weeks ago about rising staple food prices this year by as much as 30%. This adjustment is mainly because much higher oil prices.

And it is already happening, it is not a forecast anymore. Look the wheat prices.

The result is that dozens or hundreds million poor people who live in poor (and without oil) countries will be on the verge of famine.

Very high oil prices affect all us but mostly affect the poorest.

We cannot spare not to be affected by this, and for example if me and you can well survive if bus fare jumps from 4 to 8 , canal boat fare from 6 to 12, the poorest who always have their money counted will be seriously affected.

The poorest the most affected by high oil prices. And giving levels of reserves and production, these prices are not supported by the market, they are just speculation from petro-multimillionaire whose "fair" oil price is rising according to their unsatisactable thirst of money. And there is full consensus amongst all economists that oil prices are not supported by the market and are highly overestimated.

That s the reason why I call the oil evil. This is the biggest weapon to "tax" everybody (because oil prices affect everything) and this money being sucked away by the few.

Anybody is free to disagree of course.

Edited March 8, 2008 by maxcrc

[maxcrc]

Blah, Blah , Blah

Everyone's speculating about what the speculators are doing/will do. Where's the beef? Identify a single catalyst that signals the dollar will reverse. I double dare ya.

it will reverse when economy ,after reached the bottom, will reverse.

I think many sectors of the ecomomy are on hold waiting for the interest rate cut.

There is virtually 100% chances of a .50 rate cut on March 18th (or even before the meeting) and an increasing chance of a .75 cut.

It seems a hard landing of US economy is under way. There is lot of uncertain ,but the first timid signals of good news can be the catalyst. As far as today we have had only a string of bad economic news one after other.

We will see what these rates cuts and the "stimulous package" will bring around.

Anyway, the situation is bad , but there si no need to be apocalyptic, this is not the first economic crisis in the American history, there have been many bad times and all the times US has manged to recover. So its currency.

[Naam]

The Big oil bastards, YES

could you elaborate who they are and why they are bastards?

Yes, I agree they are a bunch of bastards. Not only Saudis, UEA,Qatari ,Kuwaiti,Bruneian Wadaullah, Mr. Chavez but many other petro-businessmen.

Anybody is free to disagree of course.

i disagree because using the word "bastard" lacks logic! OPEC and other oil producers are doing exactly what each and every company on this planet is doing, i.e. getting the best price for the product they sell. if the gold price hits 2,000 or 5,000 dollars an ounce will the goldmines/goldproducers be called bastards? is the owner of a home located on Victoria Peak in Hong Kong a bastard because he sold it for 41 million dollars (U.S.) although his grandfather paid for it a few thousand pounds 60 years ago? is the employee a bastard who asks from his company a salary of 300k p.a. because he knows he's worth it as another company will meet his demand?

[Heng]

Might be a good time to cash in those 39-40 Baht investments and stock up on repo'ed property in the US. Come on 25!

[LivinLOS]

We cannot spare not to be affected by this, and for example if me and you can well survive if bus fare jumps from 4 to 8 , canal boat fare from 6 to 12, the poorest who always have their money counted will be seriously affected.

The poorest the most affected by high oil prices. And giving levels of reserves and production, these prices are not supported by the market, they are just speculation from petro-multimillionaire whose "fair" oil price is rising according to their unsatisactable thirst of money. And there is full consensus amongst all economists that oil prices are not supported by the market and are highly overestimated.

That s the reason why I call the oil evil. This is the biggest weapon to "tax" everybody (because oil prices affect everything) and this money being sucked away by the few.

Anybody is free to disagree of course.

Your directing your anger in the wrong place..

Blame the central bankers who are increasing money supply by almost 15% per annum.. That is powering inflation far more. Your blaming the result not the cause.

[LivinLOS]

Might be a good time to cash in those 39-40 Baht investments and stock up on repo'ed property in the US. Come on 25!

Not quite yet Heng.. but that plays time will come..

See real estate another 30% off.. Some real chaos and pain out there.. And just as its darkest before the dawn, rental condos in Hawaii anyone ??

[uncletom]

The bastards are the direct ones in concerns to the wordly oil sales. Not to speak of Opec on a whole, but there is a tight fisted bunch lining their pockets together spread through-out the globe. Opec usually takes center stage and the others generally follow accordingly as an excuse of they must. At this time presently, safe to say the oil conglomerates are playing and creating the biggest havoc on the worlds economy. It has affected my investments of export, but I am not crying yet.

From this havoc comes the complete manipulation on all facets of the economy, stretching from diapers to mangos. It starts with the oil and next all feel the crunch. For the moment, oil is life until a full alternative resourece gets introduced cheapily to the public. But first, the oil needs to be depleted.

Wanting to get the most buck for your product is reasonable thinking, but blatent over kill stretching out affecting the globe is irresponsible selfish, and these people ( bastards) should be tar and feathered with their own oil and native bird feathers, becauseit affects all.

Just one mans opinion.

[PCA]

The bastards are the direct ones in concerns to the wordly oil sales. Not to speak of Opec on a whole, but there is a tight fisted bunch lining their pockets together spread through-out the globe. Opec usually takes center stage and the others generally follow accordingly as an excuse of they must. At this time presently, safe to say the oil conglomerates are playing and creating the biggest havoc on the worlds economy. It has affected my investments of export, but I am not crying yet.

From this havoc comes the complete manipulation on all facets of the economy, stretching from diapers to mangos. It starts with the oil and next all feel the crunch. For the moment, oil is life until a full alternative resourece gets introduced cheapily to the public. But first, the oil needs to be depleted.

Wanting to get the most buck for your product is reasonable thinking, but blatent over kill stretching out affecting the globe is irresponsible selfish, and these people ( bastards) should be tar and feathered with their own oil and native bird feathers, becauseit affects all.

Just one mans opinion.

absolutely true and fully agreed!

[ace]

The bastards are the direct ones in concerns to the wordly oil sales. Not to speak of Opec on a whole, but there is a tight fisted bunch lining their pockets together spread through-out the globe. Opec usually takes center stage and the others generally follow accordingly as an excuse of they must. At this time presently, safe to say the oil conglomerates are playing and creating the biggest havoc on the worlds economy. It has affected my investments of export, but I am not crying yet.

From this havoc comes the complete manipulation on all facets of the economy, stretching from diapers to mangos. It starts with the oil and next all feel the crunch. For the moment, oil is life until a full alternative resourece gets introduced cheapily to the public. But first, the oil needs to be depleted.

Wanting to get the most buck for your product is reasonable thinking, but blatent over kill stretching out affecting the globe is irresponsible selfish, and these people ( bastards) should be tar and feathered with their own oil and native bird feathers, becauseit affects all.

Just one mans opinion.

Oil is depleted, that's why they can get away with $100+ per barrel. Big oil have aways been merciless mofos.

We can maintain, even improve quality of life without oil, but first we need politicians who aren't too corrupt or plain stupid to see alternatives.

I blame the politicians

[samran]

The bastards are the direct ones in concerns to the wordly oil sales. Not to speak of Opec on a whole, but there is a tight fisted bunch lining their pockets together spread through-out the globe. Opec usually takes center stage and the others generally follow accordingly as an excuse of they must. At this time presently, safe to say the oil conglomerates are playing and creating the biggest havoc on the worlds economy. It has affected my investments of export, but I am not crying yet.

From this havoc comes the complete manipulation on all facets of the economy, stretching from diapers to mangos. It starts with the oil and next all feel the crunch. For the moment, oil is life until a full alternative resourece gets introduced cheapily to the public. But first, the oil needs to be depleted.

Wanting to get the most buck for your product is reasonable thinking, but blatent over kill stretching out affecting the globe is irresponsible selfish, and these people ( bastards) should be tar and feathered with their own oil and native bird feathers, becauseit affects all.

Just one mans opinion.

as someone else said, oil is scare and demand is high. Combined with political risk, oil is an expensive product. OPEC couldn't really increase production if they tried. They don't have the capacity to do much realistically.

Just getting out of the ground is also expensive. Not to mention transporting it and refining it. You don't get much change from $8billion these days in investing in a refinery.

[Naam]

The bastards are the direct ones in concerns to the wordly oil sales.

Wanting to get the most buck for your product is reasonable thinking, but blatent over kill stretching out affecting the globe is irresponsible selfish, and these people ( bastards) should be tar and feathered with their own oil and native bird feathers, becauseit affects all.

Just one mans opinion.

your opinion is understandable, no doubt about that. however you forget that nowadays every inhabitant of this planet strives to amass 'worldly' goods and/or power. and please don't tell me you are an exception! you say you have an export business. wouldn't you like to sell your items at a hundred or thousand times the price which you achieve now? and if the goods you are selling were essential to the majority of people would you forego any possible profit by selling them at a fair price? where does one draw the line between fair price and irresponsible over kill?

abandon naïveté and face reality!

[PeaceBlondie]

There is enough blame for the damaged economy to be liberally shared. The oil barons/cartels, the central banks, the politicians, the voters who think they are electing saviors and angels, the lobbyists and campaign contributors.

Maybe it is the fault of capitalism, in its current forms, being woefully inadequate to address both the social needs of the world's people, or the predictions of the analysts and speculators. Of course, it is not a zero-sum game, and in the mid-term, there will be no winners among the poor, and most of the winners will be even more filthy rich than before.

[maxcrc]

We cannot spare not to be affected by this, and for example if me and you can well survive if bus fare jumps from 4 to 8 , canal boat fare from 6 to 12, the poorest who always have their money counted will be seriously affected.

The poorest the most affected by high oil prices. And giving levels of reserves and production, these prices are not supported by the market, they are just speculation from petro-multimillionaire whose "fair" oil price is rising according to their unsatisactable thirst of money. And there is full consensus amongst all economists that oil prices are not supported by the market and are highly overestimated.

That s the reason why I call the oil evil. This is the biggest weapon to "tax" everybody (because oil prices affect everything) and this money being sucked away by the few.

Anybody is free to disagree of course.

Your directing your anger in the wrong place..

Blame the central bankers who are increasing money supply by almost 15% per annum.. That is powering inflation far more. Your blaming the result not the cause.

I am blaming the cause not the result. At least one of main causes.

I invite you to read about oil demand,oil supply and oil prices.

I have just read the last research made by Doc. Albert Clo about oil prices and oil production.

Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

That means according to the market oil prices should be the same or less than $50-55. You can add to this price 1 year inflation rate plus a degree of the dollar devaluation vs. main currencies and it is easy to see that oil prices are overestimated today by at least 30%-35% more than when prices were between $50 and $55.

Oil prices at $55 , now more production and slow demand (incresding but less increasing than production) and prices are almost THE DOUBLE and you say I am targeting the wrong people. You should get informed a bit.

Edited March 10, 2008 by maxcrc

[maxcrc]

The bastards are the direct ones in concerns to the wordly oil sales.

Wanting to get the most buck for your product is reasonable thinking, but blatent over kill stretching out affecting the globe is irresponsible selfish, and these people ( bastards) should be tar and feathered with their own oil and native bird feathers, becauseit affects all.

Just one mans opinion.

your opinion is understandable, no doubt about that. however you forget that nowadays every inhabitant of this planet strives to amass 'worldly' goods and/or power. and please don't tell me you are an exception! you say you have an export business. wouldn't you like to sell your items at a hundred or thousand times the price which you achieve now? and if the goods you are selling were essential to the majority of people would you forego any possible profit by selling them at a fair price? where does one draw the line between fair price and irresponsible over kill?

abandon naïveté and face reality!

so market reality is that OPEC oil monopoly has driven the prices up almost 100% in about 1 year or something more, whilst supply has increased more than demand ? ( today it was published the last study about oil supply/demand)

Mr.Chavez said few years ago an oil price of $30 would have been fair, today he put this "fair price" at $90....maybe tomorrow he will say $120 and all his Saudis ,Kuwaitis and Qataris freinds (did you see his interview at Al Jazeera ?) agree with him.

It is like putting a sweet in a child' month...the more you give the more they want...

If this is not 100% over kill, what is over kill ?

[LaoPo]

Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

[Naam]

so market reality is that OPEC oil monopoly has driven the prices up almost 100% in about 1 year or something more, whilst supply has increased more than demand ? ( today it was published the last study about oil supply/demand)

Mr.Chavez said few years ago an oil price of $30 would have been fair, today he put this "fair price" at $90....maybe tomorrow he will say $120 and all his Saudis ,Kuwaitis and Qataris freinds (did you see his interview at Al Jazeera ?) agree with him.

It is like putting a sweet in a child' month...the more you give the more they want...

If this is not 100% over kill, what is over kill ?

-OPEC is not a monopoly, it's share of worldwide crude production is less than 35%. why blaming only OPEC and not the other producers which do not sell their crude at lower prices?

-as i mentioned before each and everybody is striving to achieve best prices for the product they sell. crude reserves will not last infinitely. it is only rational to charge whatever the market is willing to pay and make hay when the sun shines. people who reject these facts lost contact with market reality!

-where were those who complain today when crude dropped to 8 dollars a barrel in 1986? did they complain about prices being too low 20 years earlier (in the 60s) when crude sold for 2 and 3 dollars, multinationals skimmed off the lion share and the producing countries got peanuts?

-what Hugo Chavez said a few years ago is irrelevant. a few years ago is not today.

-crude exporting countries do not only import goods from areas which they have to pay in US-Dollars but from Europe too. has the price of oil doubled in €UR terms?

[maxcrc]

so market reality is that OPEC oil monopoly has driven the prices up almost 100% in about 1 year or something more, whilst supply has increased more than demand ? ( today it was published the last study about oil supply/demand)

Mr.Chavez said few years ago an oil price of $30 would have been fair, today he put this "fair price" at $90....maybe tomorrow he will say $120 and all his Saudis ,Kuwaitis and Qataris freinds (did you see his interview at Al Jazeera ?) agree with him.

It is like putting a sweet in a child' month...the more you give the more they want...

If this is not 100% over kill, what is over kill ?

-OPEC is not a monopoly, it's share of worldwide crude production is less than 35%. why blaming only OPEC and not the other producers which do not sell their crude at lower prices?

-as i mentioned before each and everybody is striving to achieve best prices for the product they sell. crude reserves will not last infinitely. it is only rational to charge whatever the market is willing to pay and make hay when the sun shines. people who reject these facts lost contact with market reality!

-where were those who complain today when crude dropped to 8 dollars a barrel in 1986? did they complain about prices being too low 20 years earlier (in the 60s) when crude sold for 2 and 3 dollars, multinationals skimmed off the lion share and the producing countries got peanuts?

-what Hugo Chavez said a few years ago is irrelevant. a few years ago is not today.

-crude exporting countries do not only import goods from areas which they have to pay in US-Dollars but from Europe too. has the price of oil doubled in €UR terms?

That s funny, " The market "IS WILLING TO PAY."

Oil IS a de facto monopoly because there is only a set price , there is no real market, unfortunately your comparision with export business of the other forumist doesn t stand.

Customers don t make the price of oil: price is given and the only thing we can do is bowing our heads.

Market is another thing: my customers MAKE my price, if I am too expensive I will not sell and somebody else will sell the same product...that s it...I am not in the condition to make the price I want.

The comparision doesn t stand for another reason: my jewels or my tshirts are not essential and even if I will be able to charge more expensive for a unique design it will not affect anything else than THAT not essential product.

Unfortunately oil is essential and it DOES affect everything, not only petrol, air ticket, bus fare, boat fare, but wheat, bread, processed food, cloths, perfumes, mail service, UPS, ....every bloody thing has a share (smaller or bigger) of its final price affected by oil prices.

Oil prices are absolutely arbitrary, while production is increasing at amazing levels (more than demand) prices have DOUBLED.... And we are all paying our share of this. We have to and we cannot avoid that, so I wouldn t say the market is "willing to pay". Market price is made by supply and demand.

Here, simply, there is no market,only an arbitrarian de facto monopoly.

- What Hugo Chavez is saying is not irrilevant, he is changing its target of fair price every month , you look at his interview at Doha where he received minutes of bravos... If one of his threating mad speeches is enough to be an excuse for speculators to drive $3-4 more of the price in 1 single day, it means it is not irrilevant at all.

Edited March 11, 2008 by maxcrc

[maxcrc]

I would like to point out at the current level of Swiss French which could match -for the first time in history- the value of the American Dollar.

Now it is already at 1 to 1.01. It would be a historical moment. And the gold at $1000 will be the next threshold.

And also some chances of a possible comeback of the japanese yen at the double digit figures...

Edited March 11, 2008 by maxcrc

[maxcrc]

Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

[j_cheung]

Getting back to the original topic:

After the events of today/tonight, Bailout Bernanke is at it again. Swapping any mortgage-backed securities that all-those-too-cheeky banks & securities firms can't currently sell for highly liquid Treasurys that they can. It's gonna be a long drawn-out fall for the USD (substitute the "d" for dinar, dong, etc.) this year ...

[maxcrc]

Getting back to the original topic:

After the events of today/tonight, Bailout Bernanke is at it again. Swapping any mortgage-backed securities that all-those-too-cheeky banks & securities firms can't currently sell for highly liquid Treasurys that they can. It's gonna be a long drawn-out fall for the USD (substitute the "d" for dinar, dong, etc.) this year ...

These desperate measures , the mortgage crisis ,the dollar fall .... it looks like a third world country scenario...

Not to mention there are foreigners willing to buy cheap properties in Florida and California.

It makes me remember Argentina few years ago... but,...

I had a look to some bad period of american economy in the past, the debt, exchange rate,.... it seems the worst crisis ended up with a hard landing, before bouncing back. I may sound stubborn, but I still think in the first part of this year US economy (and its currency also) will reach the bottom.

Obviously, after such a bad crisis, recovering will be slow, it will be like a patient in convalescence after a bad illness.

we cannot expect any miracle.

We cannot blame Bernake, he has not so many choices, the ecomomy is risking to be near a stagflation, so it is like he had a straitjacket. Moreover the budget is approved in Congress , so the FED boss can only work with what they give to him.....not easy.

Edited March 11, 2008 by maxcrc

[Naam]

Oil prices are absolutely arbitrary, while production is increasing at amazing levels

i refrain to comment on nonsensical and completely unfounded claims like these

[LaoPo]

Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

So, the source is Alberto Clo (from Italy)...where is the link where it is written that "Oil demand has grown less than Oil production since..... "

If you claim something like that you can't expect me to look for that.

So, again: please a link !

If you can't provide so, your statement is worthless.

LaoPo

[j_cheung]

Getting back to the original topic:

After the events of today/tonight, Bailout Bernanke is at it again. Swapping any mortgage-backed securities that all-those-too-cheeky banks & securities firms can't currently sell for highly liquid Treasurys that they can. It's gonna be a long drawn-out fall for the USD (substitute the "d" for dinar, dong, etc.) this year ...

These desperate measures , the mortgage crisis ,the dollar fall .... it looks like a third world country scenario...

Not to mention there are foreigners willing to buy cheap properties in Florida and California.

It makes me remember Argentina few years ago... but,...

I had a look to some bad period of american economy in the past, the debt, exchange rate,.... it seems the worst crisis ended up with a hard landing, before bouncing back. I may sound stubborn, but I still think in the first part of this year US economy (and its currency also) will reach the bottom.

Obviously, after such a bad crisis, recovering will be slow, it will be like a patient in convalescence after a bad illness.

we cannot expect any miracle.

We cannot blame Bernake, he has not so many choices, the ecomomy is risking to be near a stagflation, so it is like he had a straitjacket. Moreover the budget is approved in Congress , so the FED boss can only work with what they give to him.....not easy.

Sure he can. He can say "NO", let the chips fall where they may (for those rogue lenders) and give the free market (in which most western opportunists er, "consultants" enjoy pontificating) do what needs to be done quickly. But of course that will anger certain powerful cliques within ...

Edited March 12, 2008 by j_cheung

[duchovny]

Oil prices are absolutely arbitrary, while production is increasing at amazing levels

i refrain to comment on nonsensical and completely unfounded claims like these

translated:

"I am unable to muster up enough wit and intelligence to offer a decent argument, so I'll just deride your opinion in the hope that others might find me charming and witty, because doing this on the internet is my only hope as it sure doesn't work in the real world".

[Naam]

Oil prices are absolutely arbitrary, while production is increasing at amazing levels

i refrain to comment on nonsensical and completely unfounded claims like these

translated:

"I am unable to muster up enough wit and intelligence to offer a decent argument, so I'll just deride your opinion in the hope that others might find me charming and witty, because doing this on the internet is my only hope as it sure doesn't work in the real world".

an irrelevant and deliberate misinterpretation of a clear message demonstrates nothing but lack of knowledge

[LivinLOS]

Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

Statement makes no sense when you consider there are no lakes of oil stock piling up.

If demand is not keeping up with supply then where is the excess oil ??

[LivinLOS]

Show as heck hope that the dollar make a rebound.

The dollar has bottomed, as a matter of fact it looks as though the pound may trade below $1.94 vs. the dollar taday. March should see sub $1.90 pound levels,

1.99 GBP

1.50 EUR

Is it March yet ??? USD hitting 74.506 today.. Remember its ALL time low is only 74:48 so we are a hair from that !!

Ohh of course Gold setting another record, silver over 19.. Palladium >550

There are two things that are abundantly clear my goldbug friend, first of all even though your post is time stamped 2008-02-27 you apparently are not even aware that it is still Febuary, and secondly in case you haven't been paying attention the dollar bottomed against the pound back on November 8th at $2.11 and change and the pound has steadily been losing ground since then and will continue its slide (with short term corections) for the rest of the year! By all means I would encourage you to hang on to all your gold, Euros, and pounds and we can revisit this discussion next fall, perhaps by then you will have learned a tough lesson on your own, if not I will be glad to show you where you went wrong!

Just to check.. Is it march yet ?? Looking to buy some 1.8x USD/GBP's ??

Gold again breaking records.. Silver >20.. But USD index down in the 71.xx's..

[PCA]

Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

Statement makes no sense when you consider there are no lakes of oil stock piling up.

If demand is not keeping up with supply then where is the excess oil ??

They let the excess oil trickle away in the desert or burning it.