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Will The Dollar Rebound In 2008


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Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

Statement makes no sense when you consider there are no lakes of oil stock piling up.

If demand is not keeping up with supply then where is the excess oil ??

They let the excess oil trickle away in the desert or burning it.

Having been an officer on oil tankers, I can tell you that an awful lot of the oil that gets shipped has no buyer. I've been on ships that sailed all over the oceans while the ownership of the cargo kept changing hands. You can store an awful lot of oil in the worlds tanker fleet. Additionally, I belive I read that China is currently buying an excess amount to create a petroleum reserve, but I have no details about that.

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Having a petroleum reserve is not 'excess' thats being bought for a strategic reason.. Its being bought so by definition is not excess.

The US alone is using 20 million BBL per day.. Thats an awful lot of tankers running around 'hiding' this !!

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Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

Statement makes no sense when you consider there are no lakes of oil stock piling up.

If demand is not keeping up with supply then where is the excess oil ??

They let the excess oil trickle away in the desert or burning it.

any excess oil is used for salad dressings. that's how the bad "Ayrabs" keep up the price :o

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Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

Statement makes no sense when you consider there are no lakes of oil stock piling up.

If demand is not keeping up with supply then where is the excess oil ??

Wake up,man !

There are thousands of new fields being drilled every day ! Much more oil than before.

What they are doing is SLOWING production to speculate on the prices ,but the oild fields are there.

Have a raid to Central Asia and Africa and see for yourself.... Oil is far from finished...

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Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

Statement makes no sense when you consider there are no lakes of oil stock piling up.

If demand is not keeping up with supply then where is the excess oil ??

Wake up,man !

There are thousands of new fields being drilled every day ! Much more oil than before.

What they are doing is SLOWING production to speculate on the prices ,but the oild fields are there.

Have a raid to Central Asia and Africa and see for yourself.... Oil is far from finished...

Low grade, hard to extract oil in countries where political stability is not secure..

Instead of anecdotally try using FACTS. 2008 projected demand is 87.5 million bpd.. OPEC is producing (feb) 32.1 mbpd.. The gwahar field (probably the litmus test for all of saudi oil) looks like it has passed peak, from now it all gets harder to extract, is lower quality, and hence requires more refining.

Look at the parabolic rises in china and indian consumption, just imagine for a split second if the chinese wished to be say 1/4 as ebergy consumptive as Americans.. Where is that coming from ??

This is not some 'evil arab' story... Peak oil may have happened.. Energy is no longer the cheap resource it once was, alternative whether they are shale sands, wind, solar, nuclear, etc will all have to be considered.

Cheap oil founded by stealing iran / iraqs and having a cosy king in saudi has passed us, that was how we benefited from the CIA running covert opps from the 50's to now.. That era seems past.

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Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

So, the source is Alberto Clo (from Italy)...where is the link where it is written that "Oil demand has grown less than Oil production since..... "

If you claim something like that you can't expect me to look for that.

So, again: please a link !

If you can't provide so, your statement is worthless.

LaoPo

whay it is worthles is yourself -

He had an interview LISTENED BY MILLIONS in TV few days ago.

It is your problem if you are so ignorant and incompetent,not mine.

I had my master in economy 8 years ago already , so you have nothing to teach me....why don t you go back to school ,newbye ?

it's a real pity that moderators have deleted the personal message (forum rules i was told) i received from a certain "master in econonomy 8 years ago already". the message was somehow self-explanatory for the "master's" mental and intellectual status and concerned the physical health of my mother and the son she gave birth to.

:o:D :D

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This thread is way out off topic .

The topic was about if the dollar is going to rebound in 2008 :o

looks very unlikely now isn't it ?

Nothing lasts forever. All markets are cyclical. It has been this low before and it will rebound as sure as eggs are eggs.

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Isn't it a bit convenient that along with the rise in price of oil we suddenly find that the "real" enemies of the western world are surprise! surprise! the ones with all the oil. Makes it so much easier to attack - a nation that has been demonised.

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This thread is way out off topic .

The topic was about if the dollar is going to rebound in 2008 :o

looks very unlikely now isn't it ?

Nothing lasts forever. All markets are cyclical. It has been this low before and it will rebound as sure as eggs are eggs.

that goes without saying. the question is whether the rebound will happen in 2008 or in 2028.

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2009. I think there's a lot more pain than gain this year (in the run up to the election) but there will come a point where currency investors decide the dollar is cheap enough to make some serious wedge on the upside.

It's not wishful thinking. I have no assets in US dollars although i must admit I'm tempted to buy some while they are so cheap.

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There'll be short term bounces along the way, but the long term trend is down, in 2008, and thereafter for the foreseeable. The people who will continue to get caught and can't distinguish cheap from value for money.

Edited by AFKAFSinLOS
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This thread is way out off topic .

The topic was about if the dollar is going to rebound in 2008 :o

looks very unlikely now isn't it ?

Nothing lasts forever. All markets are cyclical. It has been this low before and it will rebound as sure as eggs are eggs.

Unless the dollar ceases to be. The Amero anyone?

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This thread is way out off topic .

The topic was about if the dollar is going to rebound in 2008 :D

looks very unlikely now isn't it ?

Nothing lasts forever. All markets are cyclical. It has been this low before and it will rebound as sure as eggs are eggs.

Unless the dollar ceases to be. The Amero anyone?

NO. At this very moment NOBODY is thinking of the Amero.

The Canadians will fight to the bitter end (and right they are) to hand themselves over to the -very sick- Financial System of the Americans which has been a drama for so many years.

First, the American Financial Doctors, have to be sent to a mental hospital to be cured from their utter greed... :o and then back to school to be re-educated in basic economics; but better, sent to a farm to learn how to grow vegetables; more healthy.

In other words: you can't spend that DOLLAR WHICH IS NOT YOURS..... :D

LaoPo

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This thread is way out off topic .

The topic was about if the dollar is going to rebound in 2008 :D

looks very unlikely now isn't it ?

Nothing lasts forever. All markets are cyclical. It has been this low before and it will rebound as sure as eggs are eggs.

Unless the dollar ceases to be. The Amero anyone?

NO. At this very moment NOBODY is thinking of the Amero.

The Canadians will fight to the bitter end (and right they are) to hand themselves over to the -very sick- Financial System of the Americans which has been a drama for so many years.

First, the American Financial Doctors, have to be sent to a mental hospital to be cured from their utter greed... :o and then back to school to be re-educated in basic economics; but better, sent to a farm to learn how to grow vegetables; more healthy.

In other words: you can't spend that DOLLAR WHICH IS NOT YOURS..... :D

LaoPo

Well, if the putative "Amero" comes to pass, I expect Canadians would be all over it. It would likely come with migration rights and this is pretty rarified air for the looney. Hey, you been looking at those high dividend Canadian Trusts imploding lately?

post-25601-1205759336_thumb.png

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This thread is way out off topic .

The topic was about if the dollar is going to rebound in 2008 :D

looks very unlikely now isn't it ?

Nothing lasts forever. All markets are cyclical. It has been this low before and it will rebound as sure as eggs are eggs.

Unless the dollar ceases to be. The Amero anyone?

NO. At this very moment NOBODY is thinking of the Amero.

The Canadians will fight to the bitter end (and right they are) to hand themselves over to the -very sick- Financial System of the Americans which has been a drama for so many years.

First, the American Financial Doctors, have to be sent to a mental hospital to be cured from their utter greed... :o and then back to school to be re-educated in basic economics; but better, sent to a farm to learn how to grow vegetables; more healthy.

In other words: you can't spend that DOLLAR WHICH IS NOT YOURS..... :D

LaoPo

Well, if the putative "Amero" comes to pass, I expect Canadians would be all over it. It would likely come with migration rights and this is pretty rarified air for the looney. Hey, you been looking at those high dividend Canadian Trusts imploding lately?

post-25601-1205759336_thumb.png

No, I did not....but Lanna...the whole FINANCIAL WORLD is imploding.......

There are NZ Funds (Dutch origin) where some 8.000 investors are cut-off and 'forbidden' to sell in order to save the funds and not go under.... :D

It's a crazy -financial- world and the end is not in sight.

Meaning, WHAT chance did normal shareholders have on last Friday when Bear Stearns stocks dropped 47% to $30/share and the same company was sold during the weekend for $ 2/share...? :D

What a world.

Better stay cash.

LaoPo

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No, I did not....but Lanna...the whole FINANCIAL WORLD is imploding.......

There are NZ Funds (Dutch origin) where some 8.000 investors are cut-off and 'forbidden' to sell in order to save the funds and not go under.... :o

It's a crazy -financial- world and the end is not in sight.

Meaning, WHAT chance did normal shareholders have on last Friday when Bear Stearns stocks dropped 47% to $30/share and the same company was sold during the weekend for $ 2/share...? :D

What a world.

Better stay cash.

LaoPo

Little bit overdramatic don't you think. These things happen every few years. Need to build them into your financial strategy, even tho' you can never predict the timing. 2008 is still not much compared to 1997 and 1987 before that. The main difference is it is hitting at the heart of the US first. Unfortunately the US media is the most widely distributed in the world, and often rather inward looking, so makes it look worse than it is in a global context.

One difference for the future recovery tho', is that this time round the US will not get back to being so important as it was in previous cycles. The world is changing and the balance of power shifting.

Edited by AFKAFSinLOS
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No, I did not....but Lanna...the whole FINANCIAL WORLD is imploding.......

There are NZ Funds (Dutch origin) where some 8.000 investors are cut-off and 'forbidden' to sell in order to save the funds and not go under.... :D

It's a crazy -financial- world and the end is not in sight.

Meaning, WHAT chance did normal shareholders have on last Friday when Bear Stearns stocks dropped 47% to $30/share and the same company was sold during the weekend for $ 2/share...? :D

What a world.

Better stay cash.

LaoPo

Little bit overdramatic don't you think. These things happen every few years. Need to build them into your financial strategy, even tho' you can never predict the timing. 2008 is still not much compared to 1997 and 1987 before that. The main difference is it is hitting at the heart of the US first. Unfortunately the US media is the most widely distributed in the world, and often rather inward looking, so makes it look worse than it is in a global context.

One difference for the future recovery tho', is that this time round the US will not get back to being so important as it was in previous cycles. The world is changing and the balance of power shifting.

You think so ?

If ordinary people lose more than 90% of the value of the stock (Bear Stearns) over the weekend I think it's dramatic.

That same company had $ 11 Billion in cash and assets 7 days ago on Tuesday March 11th and was valued at $ 63/share; If you're having a nice weekend and come back on Monday and your share is worth $ 2 (after dropping to $ 30 on Friday) YES, I think that's dramatic because the Big Boys of that same company TOLD their shareholders 7 days ago, ALL IS WELL... :o

If you say it's not dramatic maybe you can tell us WHAT would be dramatic in your eyes.

If people like Greenspan say it's the worst financial crisis since WWII and you say it's overdramatic, well, what can I say ?

If you can explain to me WHY Bear Stearns rises again, today as of now, with +50%....I would be obliged !

It's beyond me Sir and I've seen a lot, but the markets have become CRAZY...investors are CRAZY.

Why ? because we are being lied upon by ALL of the worlds' financial big shots....this -huge- kind of betrayal is something entirely new and most of these chaps walk away with it, their pockets loaded.

:D :D : Today on Wall Street:

Lehman Brothers Hldgs +39.40% - Just published: First-quarter net income fell -57 percent :D

Countrywide Financial +24.21% on the brink of bankruptcy (or total takeover by BAC) and rises +24% ? B)

Fannie Mae +20.08% Lost -60% of their value and jumps +20% ? :D

Me being "Overdramatic?" :D

LaoPo

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No, I did not....but Lanna...the whole FINANCIAL WORLD is imploding.......

There are NZ Funds (Dutch origin) where some 8.000 investors are cut-off and 'forbidden' to sell in order to save the funds and not go under.... :D

It's a crazy -financial- world and the end is not in sight.

Meaning, WHAT chance did normal shareholders have on last Friday when Bear Stearns stocks dropped 47% to $30/share and the same company was sold during the weekend for $ 2/share...? :D

What a world.

Better stay cash.

LaoPo

Little bit overdramatic don't you think. These things happen every few years. Need to build them into your financial strategy, even tho' you can never predict the timing. 2008 is still not much compared to 1997 and 1987 before that. The main difference is it is hitting at the heart of the US first. Unfortunately the US media is the most widely distributed in the world, and often rather inward looking, so makes it look worse than it is in a global context.

One difference for the future recovery tho', is that this time round the US will not get back to being so important as it was in previous cycles. The world is changing and the balance of power shifting.

You think so ?

If ordinary people lose more than 90% of the value of the stock (Bear Stearns) over the weekend I think it's dramatic.

That same company had $ 11 Billion in cash and assets 7 days ago on Tuesday March 11th and was valued at $ 63/share; If you're having a nice weekend and come back on Monday and your share is worth $ 2 (after dropping to $ 30 on Friday) YES, I think that's dramatic because the Big Boys of that same company TOLD their shareholders 7 days ago, ALL IS WELL... :o

If you say it's not dramatic maybe you can tell us WHAT would be dramatic in your eyes.

If people like Greenspan say it's the worst financial crisis since WWII and you say it's overdramatic, well, what can I say ?

Well, he ought to know being the engineer of this fiasco.

If you can explain to me WHY Bear Stearns rises again, today as of now, with +50%....I would be obliged !

Two reasons I can think of off the top of my head. 1) Since it didn't go to $0, those short must cover their positions by buying the stock back, thus creating short term, high return trading opportunities. 2) It is my understanding that the takeover still requires shareholder approval, which I guess there's an infinitesimal chance of that not being granted

It's beyond me Sir and I've seen a lot, but the markets have become CRAZY...investors are CRAZY.

Why ? because we are being lied upon by ALL of the worlds' financial big shots....this -huge- kind of betrayal is something entirely new and most of these chaps walk away with it, their pockets loaded.

These kinds of betrayals are anything but new. It's how Wall Street operates. What's new is, everbody is now forced into being in these markets, which is shameful.

:D:D : Today on Wall Street:

Lehman Brothers Hldgs +39.40% - Just published: First-quarter net income fell -57 percent :D

Countrywide Financial +24.21% on the brink of bankruptcy (or total takeover by BAC) and rises +24% ? B)

Fannie Mae +20.08% Lost -60% of their value and jumps +20% ? :D

Me being "Overdramatic?" :D

LaoPo

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Well Lanna, I don't know; it's a bluddy mess:

Analysts got Bear Stearns wrong

http://uk.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/...0080318?sp=true

Hopes of higher bid boosts Bear shares

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/...&id=8355721

If one would only know... :o

I know one thing for certain and that is that "Banks are legalized Mafia" as a Banker once told me and that was a long time ago...

If Governments lie upon us....If Banks lie upon us......what values are left ?

The difference is that if you or I commit these crimes, we end up in Jail; if governments and Banks do it, the CEO's walk away with a bag full of money and a lot of Power.

LaoPo

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A lot of the world's markets are down between 10%-20% in about 3 months. Compare that with 20%+ drops in a single session across the board in '87 - That's heading towards my definition of dramatic.

Bear Stearns is just one bank. Companies make bad decisions all the time. Enron, Barings, Polly Peck. Hardly a complete market mess.

There's also plenty of markets doing OK or not too badly. Thailand for example, down only single digits YTD. Taiwan. Brazil. Resource companies doing fine. Mining companies fine. There's plenty of opportunity out there.

My worry is the FED and everyone else's over reaction. If they take all these measures now. What shots will they have left to fire if things really got serious and dramatic?

Have people really forgotten what a real crash is? Everyone expected a tough start to the year. Hardly dramatic. I think US media among many others are blowing things out of proportion.

Look at China, it's atually trying to take liquidity out of some of its own markets! Very ironic given the desperations in the US to create it. If your average small investor/saver could easily acquire CNY and swap his USD for CNY they would be doing. So many of the Asian currencies haven't even started to let their currencies appreciate vs USD as they need to. Dramatic would be if they suddenly readjuste overnight to where they should be and shifts of 10%-30% in FX rates.

USD rebound? Maybe a few deadcat bounces, but down down down. The U in US is for U the shape of their recession to come. They've mismanaged things for years, and now it's coming home to roost. Too long theyve relied on their own importance, and not foreseen quickly enough the changes coming in the world economies

Edited by AFKAFSinLOS
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Oil demand has grown LESS than oil production since oil prices were between $50-55 some more than 1 year ago.

A source with a link would be nice.

LaoPo

Doc. Alberto Clo, economist and specialized in oil "market".

Statement makes no sense when you consider there are no lakes of oil stock piling up.

If demand is not keeping up with supply then where is the excess oil ??

They let the excess oil trickle away in the desert or burning it.

any excess oil is used for salad dressings. that's how the bad "Ayrabs" keep up the price :D

I knew there was a reason that I didn't like those dam vegetarians, :o without them all this excess oil would be hitting the market, thanks for the clarification Naam :D !

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It will probably bounce back just like it has time and time again. The dollar has weathered tougher times than these. When the doom and gloom reaches this level, sane investors make money while the herd jumps in too late.

The historical facts are there for those willing to do the research. The dollar had an incredible run against most currencies last decade and into the early parts of this decade. It was overdue for a correction.

I checked dollar exchange rates since 1980 between Canada, UK, Germany, HK, and Australia. The dollar gained substantially against most these currencies last decade and now is close to the average value since 1980. All good things usually come to an end and it has for the dollar the last 5 years.

I doubt a stupid war and poor economic performance of late is a sign of a US crash, but it would sure be satisfying for some.

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It will probably bounce back just like it has time and time again. The dollar has weathered tougher times than these. When the doom and gloom reaches this level, sane investors make money while the herd jumps in too late.

The historical facts are there for those willing to do the research. The dollar had an incredible run against most currencies last decade and into the early parts of this decade. It was overdue for a correction.

I checked dollar exchange rates since 1980 between Canada, UK, Germany, HK, and Australia. The dollar gained substantially against most these currencies last decade and now is close to the average value since 1980. All good things usually come to an end and it has for the dollar the last 5 years.

I doubt a stupid war and poor economic performance of late is a sign of a US crash, but it would sure be satisfying for some.

"but it would sure be satisfying for some" You don't mean any posters here on thaivisa do you? My goodness there certainly are not any anti American posters here :o . All in all a very astute post siamamerican :D

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No, I did not....but Lanna...the whole FINANCIAL WORLD is imploding.......

There are NZ Funds (Dutch origin) where some 8.000 investors are cut-off and 'forbidden' to sell in order to save the funds and not go under.... :D

It's a crazy -financial- world and the end is not in sight.

Meaning, WHAT chance did normal shareholders have on last Friday when Bear Stearns stocks dropped 47% to $30/share and the same company was sold during the weekend for $ 2/share...? :D

What a world.

Better stay cash.

LaoPo

Little bit overdramatic don't you think. These things happen every few years. Need to build them into your financial strategy, even tho' you can never predict the timing. 2008 is still not much compared to 1997 and 1987 before that. The main difference is it is hitting at the heart of the US first. Unfortunately the US media is the most widely distributed in the world, and often rather inward looking, so makes it look worse than it is in a global context.

One difference for the future recovery tho', is that this time round the US will not get back to being so important as it was in previous cycles. The world is changing and the balance of power shifting.

You think so ?

If ordinary people lose more than 90% of the value of the stock (Bear Stearns) over the weekend I think it's dramatic.

That same company had $ 11 Billion in cash and assets 7 days ago on Tuesday March 11th and was valued at $ 63/share; If you're having a nice weekend and come back on Monday and your share is worth $ 2 (after dropping to $ 30 on Friday) YES, I think that's dramatic because the Big Boys of that same company TOLD their shareholders 7 days ago, ALL IS WELL... :D

If you say it's not dramatic maybe you can tell us WHAT would be dramatic in your eyes.

If people like Greenspan say it's the worst financial crisis since WWII and you say it's overdramatic, well, what can I say ?

Well, he ought to know being the engineer of this fiasco.

If you can explain to me WHY Bear Stearns rises again, today as of now, with +50%....I would be obliged !

Two reasons I can think of off the top of my head. 1) Since it didn't go to $0, those short must cover their positions by buying the stock back, thus creating short term, high return trading opportunities. 2) It is my understanding that the takeover still requires shareholder approval, which I guess there's an infinitesimal chance of that not being granted

It's beyond me Sir and I've seen a lot, but the markets have become CRAZY...investors are CRAZY.

Why ? because we are being lied upon by ALL of the worlds' financial big shots....this -huge- kind of betrayal is something entirely new and most of these chaps walk away with it, their pockets loaded.

These kinds of betrayals are anything but new. It's how Wall Street operates. What's new is, everbody is now forced into being in these markets, which is shameful.

:D:D : Today on Wall Street:

Lehman Brothers Hldgs +39.40% - Just published: First-quarter net income fell -57 percent B)

Countrywide Financial +24.21% on the brink of bankruptcy (or total takeover by BAC) and rises +24% ? :D

Fannie Mae +20.08% Lost -60% of their value and jumps +20% ? :burp:

Me being "Overdramatic?" :D

LaoPo

Lanna, that was a nice critique, however tearing apart most of lao's posts is kind of like shooting fish in a barrel :o

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It will probably bounce back just like it has time and time again. The dollar has weathered tougher times than these. When the doom and gloom reaches this level, sane investors make money while the herd jumps in too late.

The historical facts are there for those willing to do the research. The dollar had an incredible run against most currencies last decade and into the early parts of this decade. It was overdue for a correction.

I checked dollar exchange rates since 1980 between Canada, UK, Germany, HK, and Australia. The dollar gained substantially against most these currencies last decade and now is close to the average value since 1980. All good things usually come to an end and it has for the dollar the last 5 years.

I doubt a stupid war and poor economic performance of late is a sign of a US crash, but it would sure be satisfying for some.

"but it would sure be satisfying for some" You don't mean any posters here on thaivisa do you? My goodness there certainly are not any anti American posters here :o . All in all a very astute post siamamerican :D

It's tough being an American, but sure better than a number of alternatives. Someone in an earlier post accused me of being you and will now probably chime in that I'm replying to myself.

The American bashers reek of jealousy and rarely post anything of substance. Some of their conclusions about recent events are juvenile to say the least. As a whole Americans aren't perfect, but aren't really that different than other TV members.

Most the posts on this topic have been interesting and even the American bashers posts have been entertaining.

As for the dollar, it will rebound. I could make a lot of money if I knew when. Five short years ago it was near an all time high and had really no where to go but down. The real estate bubble and the war haven't helped, but the war will end and real estate values will recover.

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I doubt a stupid war and poor economic performance of late is a sign of a US crash, but it would sure be satisfying for some.

I enjoy reading objective opinions regardless of which direction they endorse but the way some seem to consistently root for a countrys economic failure and all the hardship that would bring seems a bit perverse and bizarre.

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some people are reading too much into it.

just because some say there are problems does not mean they are anti-american. I love many things about the US. I have a lot of family there, many personal interests, as well as many friends. I would be there now if I did not think the problems were getting worse. I just happen to see things for what they really are and am not trying to defend something based on personal or nationalistic reasons.

the US has been played and raped and unfortunately the majority of hard working souls will have to suffer. If I am angry at anyone - it would be the people in charge of the gov't, the institutions, corporations, etc. - and perhaps to a lesser degree to the majority for letting this happen under their noses.

i just read a canandian news story about the problems at the border - there is a large and growing refugee population that they say is alarming. imagine that - american economic refugees going north. There is a growing tent city. You won't read abou this in the mainstream news as it is being suppressed.

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