People's Alliance For Democracy To Renew Movement

[Old Man River]

... I made a similar comment on TV several days ago about it being premature for the PAD to be back out in the streets and risking a loss of credibility.

However, I don't see this as being a PAD conspiracy. Rather, in my view it is more a case of the PAD missing being in the limelight than anything else. Its an ego play. A chance to once again grab the media's attention. The message, whatever it is, is secondary.

If I remember correctly PAD leaders have a clear plan what they are going to protest about, and bringing down the government is not on the list. Meddling with Thaskin's court cases is their primary concer, and it's a legitimate and rather pressing subject, and it's not premature in any way to bring it to public view. There are already calls to abolish AEC altogether and there's no gurantee the government won't try that if left unchecked.

Hopefully public scrutiny will make Samak think twice before getting involved with Thaksin in any way.

There are other issues as well - Surapong and others indictment, Matchima, Chart Thai, and even PPP dissolution cases. So far the government behaved with supreme arrogance on these issues. Honeymoon is over, people demand answers.

PAD is not starting street protests, btw. Their first meeting is INSIDE Thammasat university. It's their opponents who are planning to hold a rally at Sanam Luang. Maybe you should ask them what their agenda is. So far their are protesting against protests only.

What the PAD seems to miss is that people throughout the country are tired of the chaos. There are no Temasek/selling of national assets issues now. The court cases are between the courts and Thaksin and no rulings have even yet been made. Stability and a well managed economy are the key issues now (which I don't think the PPP can deliver). Despite knowing this, the PAD has publicly announced that they will meet inside of one of the nation's top universities. Inside, outside, on top of or underneath, what does it matter? Its all in anticipation of what might happen. Best to stay low key until there is a real reason to return in earnest.

[Plus]

...people throughout the country are tired of the chaos...

Well, some are already tired of PPP's arrogance, even then, PAD would leave them alone if they stop messing with court cases. Right now it's transfer of DSI investigators who worked on Thaksin's case. That case, hiding ownership of SC Asset, can sink him for good. By the 28th Samak might try to dismantle AEC altogether. Lots of people won't like that, chaos or not.

Thaksin won't be accepted back in, and it's better to nip his attempts in the bud than deal with consequences, don't you think?

It is also possible that PPPs own performance will be brought into the focus, it can easily spiral out of control.

The reality is that the way things are going, protests are inveitable anyway, sooner or later.

[thaigene2]

take back what is rightfully theirs

When the country gets over Thaksin, we'll eventually see the traditional 10%-90% again, people will realise that they are figthing the wrong enemy, but the "new elites" won't let that happen easily, they won't let the poor slip out of their control. When the banned TRT execs come back, they'll get all support they need from big business.

Ah yes - the "old" rich never manipulated the poor did they Plus? Those Old rich were the poor family's best friend, is that right? Talk about fears of 'slipping from their control' PLUS?? Anyone with half a notion of Thailand knows exactly who's grip the poor families' are seized. And it 'ain't' the Shinawatra's. Though I'd agree with you that the latter would like that..no argument there.

[Old Man River]

...people throughout the country are tired of the chaos...

Well, some are already tired of PPP's arrogance, even then, PAD would leave them alone if they stop messing with court cases. Right now it's transfer of DSI investigators who worked on Thaksin's case. That case, hiding ownership of SC Asset, can sink him for good. By the 28th Samak might try to dismantle AEC altogether. Lots of people won't like that, chaos or not.

Thaksin won't be accepted back in, and it's better to nip his attempts in the bud than deal with consequences, don't you think?

It is also possible that PPPs own performance will be brought into the focus, it can easily spiral out of control.

The reality is that the way things are going, protests are inveitable anyway, sooner or later.

On this I will agree. However, the PAD could be accused of crying wolf when the time comes if they act prematurely. On the PPP's arrogance, nothing new here. Look at the people who are the most arrogant. These people haven't changed. Do any of Samak's comments on Myanmar surprise anyone who lives in Thailand?

[Plus]

I don't think his comments on Myanmar or the new war on drugs will feature in PAD meetings, so far they talked only about transfer of officials in charge of Thaksin cases. Maybe by the 28th they realise that to maintain credibility they need to cover those issues, too, even if they don't have broad support - they need to live up to their name - alliance for democracy.

...Anyone with half a notion of Thailand knows exactly who's grip the poor families' are seized...

Thaigene, those are two different kinds of grip, at the moment they even coexist. One of Thaksin's catch phrases - "no one really cared about you until I came along", and it's true - that "old" grip left people pretty much on their own.

Hooking people on government handouts, making the government responsible for their daily lives, putting the government in complete control - the old elites were too liberal for that. Thaksin saw the gap and seized it, and that's his most dangerous legacy - millions of people got a taste for this form of fascism and they demand more, and politicians oblige.

[younghusband]

Hooking people on government handouts, making the government responsible for their daily lives, putting the government in complete control - the old elites were too liberal for that. Thaksin saw the gap and seized it, and that's his most dangerous legacy - millions of people got a taste for this form of fascism and they demand more, and politicians oblige.

Substitute Roosevelt for Thaksin and you might be repeating right wing corporate America's ranting about the New Deal in the 1930's.Another example might be the current day US private medicine lobby raging against the horrors of state guaranteed health treatment for all.

Incidentally as one of my teachers at university used to say, be very sceptical about the intellectual credentials of any argument that contains the word "fascism" unless defined in a very precise way.

Still one has to be grateful for a belly laugh in these turbulent times, namely the proposition that the old elites were "too liberal" to do anything about the poverty and hardship of the majority (ie as opposed to doing nothing through their greed and selfishness).

[thaigene2]

...or the 'right' wing US administration throwing 'let the free market decide' doctrine to the wind as they bail out Bear Sterns, etc. They're panicking over there. If it doesn't work, and the banks still won't lend (isn't that what happened in 1929?), then does the US take the next step of nationalizing all the banks and FORCING them to lend to re-start the economy? I mean the so called free-market rules have now been breached by the very people who made them..anyway, sorry to go off-topic.

[sriracha john]

So the party bosses are saying they can't rein in their own thugs?....

People Power Party Secretary-General Fears Conflict in People's Alliance's Gathering

The People Power Party Secretary-General says he fears a confrontation between the People's Alliance for Democracy and his party's MPs as both groups plan a gathering on March 28th.

People Power Party Secretary-General [and Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister and criminal litigant] Surapong Suebwonglee commented on the move by his party's Samut Prakarn MP, Pracha Prasopdee, to set up a group called Public to Protect Democracy and set up stage next to the People's Alliance for Democracy, saying party executives do not want to see a confrontation.

The party fears the situation may escalate. He added that several party executives have talked to Pracha to ask him to reconsider his move.

Deputy Prime Minister and Education Minister Somchai Wongsawat also voiced his disagreement about the move and said it goes against the law. He said the People Power Party does not support movements or activities that may cause social dissent. He said it should be left for the public to decide which group they want to side with.

- Thailand Outlook / 19 March 2008

[Tony Clifton]

How can they even consider trying to derail this PAD gathering going on inside a building where people will willingly attend when no streets would be blocked by people and a stage and a small police presence required?

By the way, if anyone remembers the ex-Thamassat students and their Chinese opera plays mocking Thaksin and company during the PAD protests, they'll be back at it again in a few weeks taking potshots at the newly elected government and the old cast of characters.

Edited March 20, 2008 by Tony Clifton

[Plus]

Hooking people on government handouts, making the government responsible for their daily lives, putting the government in complete control - the old elites were too liberal for that. Thaksin saw the gap and seized it, and that's his most dangerous legacy - millions of people got a taste for this form of fascism and they demand more, and politicians oblige.

...Another example might be the current day US private medicine lobby raging against the horrors of state guaranteed health treatment for all.

State guaranteed health treatment is not what separate fascism from a liberal society and no one is arguing against a better healthcare system for millions of Thais.

And since you mentioned it - have you by any chance noticed that under TRT Thailand developed TWO healthcare systems. 30 baht for the poor, and first rate, international standard hospitals for themselves (and rich foreigners) where no ordinary Thai can enter even in case of emergencies.

How does that fit your rosy picture of the party that cares?

Incidentally as one of my teachers at university used to say, be very sceptical about the intellectual credentials of any argument that contains the word "fascism" unless defined in a very precise way.

I gave you the definition, precisely to avoid this kind of confusion.

Still one has to be grateful for a belly laugh in these turbulent times, namely the proposition that the old elites were "too liberal" to do anything about the poverty and hardship of the majority (ie as opposed to doing nothing through their greed and selfishness).

What involvement exactly did these old elites have with struggles of millions of poor Thais? Did they, the Bangkok elites, control the regional middlemen who kept farmers in dire straits through price control? Were they involved with squandering budgets allocated to the regions? Did they dream up various agricultural schemes and projects that invarialy fail and leave farmers in more debts but benefit local seed distributors and the likes?

These poor farmers had their local MPs representing them for decades now, how come they don't ask these MPs for results but blame some elusive Bangkok elites?

Why is that people of Suphanburi thank their local Banharn for looking after them rather then search for scape goats in Bangkok?

That was a fine piece of TRT propaganda - create an external enemy, just an unclear but menacing image, so that you can keep people firmly under control of their local masters, and you swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

[chevykanteve]

Bangkokians oppose PAD's rallies: survey

About one in two Bangkok residents opposed the reactivation of the antigovernment movement by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), Abac Poll said Thursday.

The overwhelming majority of 80 per cent said they would not participate in the PAD's public meeting scheduled for March 28 at Thammasat University Auditorium.

Almost 85 per cent said they were worried about the political situation.

The opinion survey was conducted on March 15to17 with 1,214 respondents.

The Nation

[sriracha john]

The overwhelming majority of 80 per cent said they would not participate in the PAD's public meeting scheduled for March 28 at Thammasat University Auditorium

I think they are going to need a few more extra chairs at the auditorium if by extrapolation, 20% of Bangkok's 10 million inhabitants "WOULD participate in the PAD's public meeting scheduled for March 28."

[Plus]

There are no clear reasons for massive street protests yet but should the need arise, low burning pilot fires need to be in place.

If PAD leaders keep low profile and stay off the streets until there's a public mandate to take protests to the next level, we should be ok and I don't see why they should be prohibited from doing so.

I'm curious how they'll handle the yellow shirt issue this time.

Re. survey - why didn't they ask what people think of PPP setting up counter rallies on the streets to protests against people's right to protest?

It's only a matter of time before we hear accusations that critisizing the government in public is a non-Thai activity and calls for all true patriots to unite around the dear leader for the sake of stability and the nation.

[Old Man River]

There are no clear reasons for massive street protests yet but should the need arise, low burning pilot fires need to be in place.

If PAD leaders keep low profile and stay off the streets until there's a public mandate to take protests to the next level, we should be ok and I don't see why they should be prohibited from doing so.

I'm curious how they'll handle the yellow shirt issue this time.

Re. survey - why didn't they ask what people think of PPP setting up counter rallies on the streets to protests against people's right to protest?

It's only a matter of time before we hear accusations that critisizing the government in public is a non-Thai activity and calls for all true patriots to unite around the dear leader for the sake of stability and the nation.

Plus I am not going to comment on whether the PAD's meeting is needed or not, but rather to point out the view I mentioned the other day was borne out by the statistical sample taken by ABAC. The PAD needs to tread very lightly so that they don't alienate the very people they will need to rely on later.

[Plus]

That is true, they can easily overestimate their own importance.

Still, whatever they do, when there's public swell of discontent, somebody will spearhead the demonstrations, PAD or no PAD.

[chevykanteve]

This version from the Bangkok Post (partial copy)

......................

PAD forum not popular, survey finds

The anti-government forum to be held by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) next week is not finding favour with the public, according to a poll released yesterday.

The poll by Bangkok University found that 57% of respondents were opposed to the PAD move as they said it would create public disorder and disharmony.

The forum will be held at Thammasat University on March 28, and it will be the first public gathering..............

Most people said the PAD should allow the government much more time to run the country before taking any action.

The university's research institute conducted the survey on the reaction to the forum among 1,214 people in Bangkok from Saturday to Monday .

The survey found that 26% agreed with the PAD move because it would help keep the government in check while 16% declined to express an opinion.

Meanwhile, PAD coordinator in Songkhla Ekkachai Issarata said the southern alliance would join the rally at Thammasat.

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej said the PPP did not support the idea of mobilising PPP supporters nationwide to counter the PAD. .......................

[ando]

The overwhelming majority of 80 per cent said they would not participate in the PAD's public meeting scheduled for March 28 at Thammasat University Auditorium

I think they are going to need a few more extra chairs at the auditorium if by extrapolation, 20% of Bangkok's 10 million inhabitants "WOULD participate in the PAD's public meeting scheduled for March 28."

If past performance is anything to go on, I don't think they will be needing too many extra chairs; -- even by absurd extrapolation of numbers you quote.

Even at its peak the PAD managed to attract only less than 0.3% of the countries voters to come out onto the streets. Hardly a representative cross section of the countries voters when you consider the rallies were held in the Democrat heartland of Bangkok with easy access for those wishing to attend.

The euphoria of those heady days back in 2006 when PAD seemed like the conduit to political reform has evaporated after the disastrous experience of putting generals in charge of running the country. No one (or at least very , very few Thais) want to see a repeat of that any time soon.

PAD is like most political pressure groups, their intent is to bring down the government, but they don't want to held accountable for what happens after that.

Ordinary Thais want to see some future in what happens. Not just mindless protests for the sake of protest. Or rather should I say, for the benefit of stroking the egos of the PAD leaders.

I would really be surprised if PAD could even raise 10% of their former supporters to come out and protest these days. Probably more like 5% at best.

[Plus]

Ando, didn't you noticed that SJ made his "absurd extrapolation" on the basis of the poll itself - that 20% were either planning to attend or were not sure they were NOT going to attend. That's what was implied.

You can't judge overall support just by counting people who actually make to the streets. In 2006 the opposing camp had only a couple of hundred protesters confined in government sponsored camps. By your logic Thaksin's support was only 200/65,000,000*100%. My calculator doesn't even show small numbers like that.

[ando]

Ando, didn't you noticed that SJ made his "absurd extrapolation" on the basis of the poll itself - that 20% were either planning to attend or were not sure they were NOT going to attend. That's what was implied.

You can't judge overall support just by counting people who actually make to the streets. In 2006 the opposing camp had only a couple of hundred protesters confined in government sponsored camps. By your logic Thaksin's support was only 200/65,000,000*100%. My calculator doesn't even show small numbers like that.

Really! 20% of 10 million Bangkokians are either planning to attend or are not sure if they will go?

Potentially up to 2 million people will attend hey? I don't think so. Even if they could raise that many supporters (in this absurd extrapolation) to come out on the streets it would still only represent 5% of the countries voters. As stated before, at their peak of popularity, PAD only managed to attract less than 0.3% of the countries voters to come out onto the streets, and that was in the Democrats heartland of Bangkok with easy access for their supporters.

Conversely I think if one was to mass all the people in the north and north east in an area the size of Bangkok it wouldn't be too difficult to get a turn out of of over a million to protest against PAD and the military dictatorship they endorse. The fact that most Issarn people are poor and spread out over a wide area does make it difficult for them to make their voice heard in a similar way. And of course the road blocks set up by the military dictators back in 2007 didn't help much.

Lets just wait and see what the next PAD turnout is? My bet is 5 to 10 thousand max.

[sriracha john]

Bangkokians oppose PAD's rallies: survey

About one in two Bangkok residents opposed the reactivation of the antigovernment movement by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), Abac Poll said Thursday.

The overwhelming majority of 80 per cent said they would not participate in the PAD's public meeting scheduled for March 28 at Thammasat University Auditorium.

Ando, didn't you noticed that SJ made his "absurd extrapolation" on the basis of the poll itself - that 20% were either planning to attend or were not sure they were NOT going to attend. That's what was implied.

You can't judge overall support just by counting people who actually make to the streets. In 2006 the opposing camp had only a couple of hundred protesters confined in government sponsored camps. By your logic Thaksin's support was only 200/65,000,000*100%. My calculator doesn't even show small numbers like that.

Really! 20% of 10 million Bangkokians are either planning to attend or are not sure if they will go?

Potentially up to 2 million people will attend hey? I don't think so. Even if they could raise that many supporters (in this absurd extrapolation) to come out on the streets it would still only represent 5% of the countries voters. As stated before, at their peak of popularity, PAD only managed to attract less than 0.3% of the countries voters to come out onto the streets, and that was in the Democrats heartland of Bangkok with easy access for their supporters.

Ando, your usage of "absurd" is repeatedly misplaced.

It actually applies to the ABAC poll itself. I did nothing but include the opposite side of numbers in their "absurd" poll.

As for your 0.3% numbers, that has been explained, refuted, and disproven in no fewer than a dozen posts over the past 2 years. Perhaps it's time you finally abandon it.

[sriracha john]

So the party bosses are saying they can't rein in their own thugs?....

People Power Party Secretary-General Fears Conflict in People's Alliance's Gathering

The People Power Party Secretary-General says he fears a confrontation between the People's Alliance for Democracy and his party's MPs as both groups plan a gathering on March 28th.

People Power Party Secretary-General [and Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister and criminal litigant] Surapong Suebwonglee commented on the move by his party's Samut Prakarn MP, Pracha Prasopdee, to set up a group called Public to Protect Democracy and set up stage next to the People's Alliance for Democracy, saying party executives do not want to see a confrontation.

The party fears the situation may escalate. He added that several party executives have talked to Pracha to ask him to reconsider his move.

Deputy Prime Minister and Education Minister Somchai Wongsawat also voiced his disagreement about the move and said it goes against the law. He said the People Power Party does not support movements or activities that may cause social dissent. He said it should be left for the public to decide which group they want to side with.

- Thailand Outlook / 19 March 2008

For whatever reason, the PM finally does step up to the plate to rein in their own thugs...

PM prohibits MPs from People Power Party to protest against PAD

The Prime Minister and Defense Minister, Samak Sundaravej, who also acts as the People Power Party Leader, says he forbids his party's Members of Parliament to stage a protest against the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)'s movement, as they could become the victims of certain political groups.

At the Prime Minister's weekly television program today (March 23rd), Samak commented on the PAD's gathering scheduled to be held on March 28th. He says he does not understand the real intention of the PAD members since the government has just been set up and has been administering the country for a month and a half. He says the PAD however has accused the government for setting up a police state and the Thaksin regime is returning.

Nevertheless, the Prime Minister says he will not allow his party's MPs to counter the PAD's movement, as they could be the victims of certain political groups.

- ThaiNews (yesterday)

[ando]

Bangkokians oppose PAD's rallies: survey

About one in two Bangkok residents opposed the reactivation of the antigovernment movement by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), Abac Poll said Thursday.

The overwhelming majority of 80 per cent said they would not participate in the PAD's public meeting scheduled for March 28 at Thammasat University Auditorium.

Ando, didn't you noticed that SJ made his "absurd extrapolation" on the basis of the poll itself - that 20% were either planning to attend or were not sure they were NOT going to attend. That's what was implied.

You can't judge overall support just by counting people who actually make to the streets. In 2006 the opposing camp had only a couple of hundred protesters confined in government sponsored camps. By your logic Thaksin's support was only 200/65,000,000*100%. My calculator doesn't even show small numbers like that.

Really! 20% of 10 million Bangkokians are either planning to attend or are not sure if they will go?

Potentially up to 2 million people will attend hey? I don't think so. Even if they could raise that many supporters (in this absurd extrapolation) to come out on the streets it would still only represent 5% of the countries voters. As stated before, at their peak of popularity, PAD only managed to attract less than 0.3% of the countries voters to come out onto the streets, and that was in the Democrats heartland of Bangkok with easy access for their supporters.

Ando, your usage of "absurd" is repeatedly misplaced.

It actually applies to the ABAC poll itself. I did nothing but include the opposite side of numbers in their "absurd" poll.

SJ, You did nothing but extrapolate an absurd opinion based on the poll. Its not the poll I am calling absurd, as I am sure you well know, -- Its your rather silly extrapolation.

As for your 0.3% numbers, that has been explained, refuted, and disproved in no fewer than a dozen posts over the past 2 years. Perhaps it's time you finally abandon it.

How do you "refute, explain, disprove" the facts? 100,000 PAD protesters at their peak equals less than 0.3% of the countries voters. Plain and simple. Unless you want to EXTRAPOLATE that number to include people who you thought might have thought they would like to come out, but decided not to?

The FACTS remain unchallenged, I'm sorry.

Sorry, that post didnt appear in the format intended. Please note my answers above are encapsulated in the B for bold square brackets.

Edited March 24, 2008 by ando

[ando]

Didn't see too many protests from the PAD (PEOPLE AGAINST DEMOCRACY) when the military dictators were running the country?

They are just attention seeking now. They don't have any popular issues to pretend they are protesting about. Apart from maybe a few thousand hard core protesters, they dont have much general support. Even if they manage to raise 10,000 protesters, it will still be less than 0.03% of Thailands total voters!

That's about one in 3,800 voters for the mathematically challenged who like to extrapolate numbers to represent something its not.

[Meerkat]

Do we actually know the percentage of respondents of the poll who stated that they would attend the rally? Without that datum it is statistically worthless to say that 20% would attend or are unsure. The reason being of course that with such a large percentage polling to the negative, it would be reasonable (although naturally not a statistical certainty) to infer that an approximately equally high percentage of the "unsures" might also be negatives.

There a lies, damned lies, and statistics.

[sriracha john]

Bangkokians oppose PAD's rallies: survey

About one in two Bangkok residents opposed the reactivation of the antigovernment movement by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), Abac Poll said Thursday.

The overwhelming majority of 80 per cent said they would not participate in the PAD's public meeting scheduled for March 28 at Thammasat University Auditorium.

Ando, didn't you noticed that SJ made his "absurd extrapolation" on the basis of the poll itself - that 20% were either planning to attend or were not sure they were NOT going to attend. That's what was implied.

You can't judge overall support just by counting people who actually make to the streets. In 2006 the opposing camp had only a couple of hundred protesters confined in government sponsored camps. By your logic Thaksin's support was only 200/65,000,000*100%. My calculator doesn't even show small numbers like that.

Really! 20% of 10 million Bangkokians are either planning to attend or are not sure if they will go?

Potentially up to 2 million people will attend hey? I don't think so. Even if they could raise that many supporters (in this absurd extrapolation) to come out on the streets it would still only represent 5% of the countries voters. As stated before, at their peak of popularity, PAD only managed to attract less than 0.3% of the countries voters to come out onto the streets, and that was in the Democrats heartland of Bangkok with easy access for their supporters.

Ando, your usage of "absurd" is repeatedly misplaced.

It actually applies to the ABAC poll itself. I did nothing but include the opposite side of numbers in their "absurd" poll.

SJ, You did nothing but extrapolate an absurd opinion based on the poll. Its not the poll I am calling absurd, as I am sure you well know, -- Its your rather silly extrapolation.

Nothing absurd in my response. The poll is absurd for deciding to report its poll results as 80% would not participate in a PAD function... nothing absurd at all in the highly reasonable response to that to say that 20% would participate. Do I believe that 2 million people will attend? No, of course not. It was posted merely to highlight the absurdity of their poll reporting. Your beef is with ABAC, not myself.

As for your 0.3% numbers, that has been explained, refuted, and disproved in no fewer than a dozen posts over the past 2 years. Perhaps it's time you finally abandon it.

How do you "refute, explain, disprove" the facts? 100,000 PAD protesters at their peak equals less than 0.3% of the countries voters. Plain and simple. Unless you want to EXTRAPOLATE that number to include people who you thought might have thought they would like to come out, but decided not to?

The FACTS remain unchallenged, I'm sorry.

The "fact" was discredited two years ago... and several times since...

they represent less than 1% of the population

Protestors of any cause in any country at any time in history are "representative" of unknown numbers of others who share the same view but are not in attendance. To simply state that the numbers of attendees represent less than 1% of the population fails to grasp this most basic of concepts regarding protesting. By that logic, it would require 33 million Thais protesting in one location at one time to constitute a "crisis" for the majority of Thais.

Sorry, that post didnt appear in the format intended. Please note my answers above are encapsulated in the B for bold square brackets.

The use of differing colors is a good way to delineate different responses inside quotes.

Edited March 24, 2008 by sriracha john

[sriracha john]

Do we actually know the percentage of respondents of the poll who stated that they would attend the rally? Without that datum it is statistically worthless to say that 20% would attend or are unsure. The reason being of course that with such a large percentage polling to the negative, it would be reasonable (although naturally not a statistical certainty) to infer that an approximately equally high percentage of the "unsures" might also be negatives.

There a lies, damned lies, and statistics.

and then things are taken to new all-time heights with Thai polls...

which is why, most often, they deserve the mocking they were given in this instance... although some might fail to grasp that...

[Meerkat]

and then things are taken to new all-time heights with Thai polls...

which is why, most often, they deserve the mocking they were given in this instance... although some might fail to grasp that...

Actually there well may be nothing wrong with the polling at all. What is wrong, however, is that we have only been furnished with one side of the results. That may well not be the fault of ABAC, but of the publication that commissioned the poll in the first place. I've looked at the ABAC website but couldn't find the full findings.

I've just noted that in your post above the one I've just quoted, you state that [there is] "nothing absurd at all in the highly reasonable response to that to say that 20% would participate". Actually that is an absurd assumption - at least statistically. By inferring that, you have chosen not to include both the "don't knows" and the "declined to answers".

[ando]

Do we actually know the percentage of respondents of the poll who stated that they would attend the rally? Without that datum it is statistically worthless to say that 20% would attend or are unsure. The reason being of course that with such a large percentage polling to the negative, it would be reasonable (although naturally not a statistical certainty) to infer that an approximately equally high percentage of the "unsures" might also be negatives.

There a lies, damned lies, and statistics.

and then things are taken to new all-time heights with Thai polls...

which is why, most often, they deserve the mocking they were given in this instance... although some might fail to grasp that...

So, it was all a big joke after all.

Silly me. I misunderstood.

Apologies for doubting your intelligence SJ. Oh yea, Plus too.

[sriracha john]

Mocking or ridiculing something don't always infer something is taken lightly or is considered a joke.... which, admittedly, most ABAC polls and/or their reported results are.

We've already probably expended more energy detailing the absurdity of their work then they spent on doing their poll.

Edited March 24, 2008 by sriracha john

[ando]

You will note that most of these political polls are taken in Bangkok, or if you read the forwarding disclaimer you will see things like -- "a poll taken in 32 provinces" etc.. There are 76 provinces in all if my memory serves me correctly, and the majority of people live in the more remote north eastern provinces that are mostly excluded from these polls due to the widespread distribution of the population.

So these polls that appear to give some credibility by stating they were done by this or that University almost never reflect the true feelings of the Thai people overall. Rather they virtually always reflect only the views of the city and urban dwellers who are easier to interview for the poll takers.

Anyone who takes Thai political polls with more than a grain of salt needs their head read unless it pertains only to the specific area polled.